BTC - Attractive risk reward opportunity

12월 3일

It seems BTC is forming a bullish pennant or a bullish symmetrical triangle. However, the RSI has been indicating a weakening in momentum, suggesting a bearish divergence.

When reviewing the public order books on exchanges like Coinbase and Binance, there are thousands of open Bitcoin sell orders just below and at the $100,000 level.

The last time BTC attempted to break $100,000, it was evident that there wasn’t sufficient volume—there simply weren’t enough buyers to sustain the move.

If BTC breaks the triangle to the upside, I anticipate another attempt at $100,000. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if it fails again, resulting in a pullback to the range low around $90,000.

I believe BTC could break $100,000 this cycle—if not by the end of this year, then early next year.

How I Plan to Trade This:

If the market breaks upward from the triangle, I will closely monitor volume and price action. It wouldn’t surprise me if this setup results in a fake-out, only to drop lower. In that case, it could present solid shorting opportunities with tight stop-loss orders near $100,000, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio.

If the market breaks $100,000 convincingly, I will look for strength and high volume in the move. Upon confirmation, I plan to start scaling into a long position, while keeping a close eye on whether the market can hold above the $100,000 level.