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A Crypto Year In Review - Life ends, but death lasts forever

업데이트됨

It's been exactly a year since I got into this market, and it's been quite an adventure. I've learned a lot about myself, psychology, and market behavior. It hasn't been easy. However, a year of my life has gone, and I'm not really comfortable with losing any more of my life to observing this market. So, this will be my final analysis until I see fit to return, which will probably be tomorrow ; ). Just kidding. I really need a break, and it's possible you won't see me until sometime in January. Mental health is important, and this market is brutal. This is only to my small group of followers (and to myself). If you want to skip most of the text, just read the 4 bullet points at the bottom.

I had a feeling that we'd eventually need to meet the log trend line formed at the end of the previous bear market. Didn't think it would happen this quickly, but here we are. As you can see, today's "bounce" happened right on that line, in the 4200 area. There are no long term supports below 4100 or so, which means bulls better hope it holds. Right now, it seems like it's failing, but the 4K-4.1K area is holding FOR NOW. The only "supports" below here that I can see are 3K, 2.5K, and 1.8K (dotted lines). It's actually pretty good that we've gotten to this area so quickly, because now we can get it over with and see if there's any real strength left in the market. There are definitely a large amount of buyers here, which is good (confirmed by volume). They may need to see this log line continue to hold before confidently entering bigger positions though. Additionally, the U.S. Dollar really does look like it's on the verge of collapse. This would be good for Bitcoin. This really doesn't look like a convincing bottom yet, which is concerning. This next drop needs to cause a significant spring, ideally all the way up to the 5200 area. Either that, or we need to stall here and slowly move up along the log trend line, as we did at the end of the previous bear market. Since this market is so crazy though, anything can happen. Bitcoin can crash all the way to 2K and rebound in a single day, if a group of whales plan accordingly. So be extra careful. I'm posting this as a YOLO long trade just for fun. If it goes up from here, it would be nice to see my chart turn green when I push the arrow :P If it crashes and burns, so be it. Lessons learned.

Alts are showing some bounce attempts now...though most of these bounces are continuing to get sold, which is good for day traders, as they can just keep swing trading to accumulate more for the "real" bounce up, or the next breakdown. Volatility is clearly back with a vengeance, and if you're caught on the wrong end of a trade at this time, it wouldn't look good. This market is not a very forgiving casino at the moment.

I am still more bullish on alts like XRP and XLM than Bitcoin. This can change, but they've shown such strength recently that I have become a firm believer in their resilience, and their ability to become true payment methods in the future. They are starting to show some signs of weakness though. There are also hidden bullish divergences going on in alt price action as well. For example, we should have seen BAT crashing down below 3K on the BTC ratio, but it has held 3500 quite well so far. This signals to me that it may be ready to reverse its long term downtrend against Bitcoin. Also, NANO, which I have used often to gauge market sentiment (as speculative investors see it as a "new" Bitcoin alternative), has gotten back to its 2600 support pretty quickly, although it's still struggling to hold. This is fairly bullish, nonetheless, and it's still above the $0.75 bottom from August.

For future reference, I am making a list of which popular alts have shown the most strength (in my opinion), and which have shown the most weakness. This is based on a variety of factors (volume, ability to hold support since the August 13th 2018 bloodbath, active communities, strong marketing, good investor sentiment overall, etc). I speculate the ones that have shown the most strength will have the biggest returns in the near future, and many of the weak alts will remain flat for a while until improvements are made, or until they fade away completely. As with every huge speculative market crash, certain assets never recover. What goes up must come down, but what goes down doesn't necessarily have to go up. Life ends, but death lasts forever. This is why I can't waste more time on this market.

Anyway, this is not a complete list. These are just specific ones I've been keeping track of over the last year, and observing their performance. I have held each of these coins, at least briefly, in the past year. Bitcoin would actually be on the weaker list, along with Bitcoin Cash, because they've been having an identity crisis (investors will likely be turned off by this), and have inferior technology to XRP and XLM. They have also dropped below support levels more than some alts. Some of the strong alts are making a case for potentially flipping Bitcoin in the future in terms of market cap value. This has something I've been saying for a while. I'll admit, it's totally speculative, but I was right at least in the short term, that XRP and XLM would continue to do well despite the market sell-off. You can read about why I predicted that in my previous analyses. Here is the list:

STRONG ALTS:
XRP
XLM
BNB
NANO
EOS
GVT
SLT (1000% since February, 500% since I bought in, even in this bear market) - The biggest winner in my portfolio, but the smallest investment (oh the irony). I sold half my stack recently back to XLM to take some profit, but I have a feeling it could go up much more long term. Still waiting to buy back lower. Patience is key in any market.

NEUTRAL ALTS:
IOTA
BAT
ADA
TRX
VET

WEAKER ALTS:
NEO
ETH
ENG
WTC
ICX
OMG

This list is obviously subject to change, but this is how I see it now. We'll see how all these coins do in the future.

Anyway, for anyone reading this, I hope you've enjoyed some of my analyses. A year constantly observing this market is enough for me. It'll be fun to look back in a few months time to see how everything plays out.

My speculations in summary:
1) XRP may very well surpass Bitcoin, and XLM may very well surpass ETH
2) Bitcoin IDEALLY needs to hold 4100-4200 to remain bullish long term, but a GIANT bullish wick to extreme lows (3K-1.8K) IS possible, so be careful.
3) Some alts look much better than others
4) Life ends, but death lasts forever. Get out and enjoy your life.

Here is my recent post about the market (on the XRPBTC chart):

Crypto: The Ultimate Test of Patience - Buying Opportunity Soon

And my recent Bitcoin analysis:

This is not investment advice. I am clearly not a professional financial advisor. Just someone who knows a bit of TA and has been following this crazy market over the last year. Bye for now.

Good luck!

-Victor Cobra

액티브 트레이드

Bought a little at 4200, because why not. Alright, signing off.

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One last thought: If Bitcoin crashes below 4K, it will likely lose long term investor confidence. Ask yourself, who are the big players involved here? Why would they want this to happen? Likewise, there are people who I'm sure have a vested interest in Bitcoin retaining its long term uptrend. But which side is stronger?

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If we head to 2.5-3K levels, we could then see a final long term bottom forming (and the creation of a new trend). In this scenario, we would follow something like the red line on my chart, although it may play out quicker than that.

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Wanted to do a quick update. Looking at the long term monthly chart on Bitstamp, this bear market could actually last even longer than the previous one. I would give this a maximum of 4-5 years. In 2023, we would meet a REAL long term trend line (orange), as well as resistance turned support from the previous multi-year bubble. This long term chart makes a rebound here at 4K seem pretty unlikely. If this plays out, this will mean I need to save up some money to buy at the 1K bottom, but we'll have plenty of time to do so. This would require a LOT of patience. It's interesting to note how many converging trend lines were being tested in the 6K area (purple and light blue). We could try to stay in the light blue channel (yellow scenario), but as soon as we fall out, we will probably drop to the dotted red line. That's our next chance for a recovery point, and then we could follow my green scenario. Keep in mind, the orange is really the WORST CASE SCENARIO, but it could easily play out of the stock market enters a multi-year bear phase.

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*IF the stock market enters a multi-year bear phase. Anyway, if we reverse on this current log support, this will continue an accelerated growth scenario for the crypto market, and if we break down, obviously growth will enter a phase of decelerated growth.

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I'm updating less these days, as I said, but thought I'd do a quick one here. I think the most probable outcome would be finding the new log trend on the red dotted line. This means that these scenarios (in squggly lines) are all possible. A retest of broken support is possible (yellow), which would be a great trading opportunity. I may sell some if we get above 5K, as I don't really expect a true bull market to return for at least another year (2020), though my view may change. We also have room to drop to the low 2K area, give or take $200 (red scenario). Can also stabilize at 3K. I know a lot of traders are looking for the 4.5K-4.6K area to open new shorts too, so that's a potential bounce target.

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Looks like we can invalidate the yellow and red scenarios from the above chart. We are currently following the beginning of the green scenario (test of broken log support as resistance). If we can get more buying from the bulls, a full-on reversal is in the cards (yellow scenario below), or simply a retest of the descending resistance in red. We could also drop from here and make a new lower low. If strong alts like XRP and XLM can get back above their long term USD supports (40 cents and 17 cents respectively) then it's a good sign!

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My chart seems to favor the green or red scenarios, but you never know! This could have been the final capitulation move by the market that we've been waiting for. It all depends on what happens at the broken log line (light blue) and the giant triangle resistance (red line).

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The broken log trendline is critical. If we can't get back above it soon, we will drop, possibly to new lows. But if we blast through it, we are likely to see a volume spike, along with a push towards 5700.

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We're holding this level surprisingly well. The bulls are in a good position for an attempt to break back above the log trendline. Shorts are close to ATH again, so this could be fuel for a squeeze. Also, TRX has now joined my list of "stronger" alts, as it has actually broken back above its broken trendline. Meanwhile, EOS has broken support and looks much weaker than before. With Bitcoin, we have a potential for an inverse head and shoulders reversal, that could be strong enough to blast through 4500 and 4600 if the stars align. If we are rejected hard there though, it would be a good sell signal.

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As for XRP and XLM, they both have a little work to do in order to remain bullish against the U.S. Dollar (still bullish against Bitcoin). XRP needs to get back above 40 cents and stay there, while XLM needs to do the same, but at 18 cents.

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Looks like we've dropped after failing at the broken log trend line. This was expected. Not many people were actually looking at this rejection. However, we're starting to form some new support in this area, in the 3700/3800 zone. We MIGHT see an attempted double bottom and another retest of the broken log trend line, now a little below 4500. On the downside, 3400-3600 is recent support, and below that we have a pretty obvious bearish target of 2900-3000.

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Since so many people are waiting for 2900-3000, it's really possible that we never get that low, since people will be impatient to catch the bottom. Just another thing to keep in mind. This is why if you're a long term investor, laddering buys is important, rather than keeping your entire trading capital on the sidelines.

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Today's downward movement seemed a bit weak, so it's no surprise that we're seeing a little bit of a short squeeze here, as shorts are getting towards ATH again. This squeeze could take us all the way back up to retest 4200 and then 4500 before potentially dropping again. These shorts really need to be eradicated before further severe downside.

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Gold is going up a bit as the dollar slides a little. This would, in theory, be good for crypto...but the market is still traumatized from the recent selloff. We'd really need A LOT of momentum to get back above 4500. That would be the only scenario that could have us ending the bear market sooner rather than later.

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The squeeze barely happened, as we failed to stay above 4K again. This is starting to become a major psychological resistance. This tells me that this bear market may indeed last for a long time. A few alts are showing strength against Bitcoin again, like TRX, BNB, and BAT. But XRP and XLM have been stalling recently. We're getting some mixed signals, so trading right now seems risky. I guess this would explain Bitcoin's low volume. Everyone is waiting for the next big move.

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It looks like we've entered the buying zone for many alts, if the crypto space is to remain bullish in the future. A while ago, I told myself these were likely bearish targets (absolute low prices for the bear market). Obviously could be wrong, but these zones should result in some buying. I just added some fiat in this area to a few of my coins for long term (NANO, VET, and TRX).
These accumulation zones for some popular coins are as follows:
XLM: $0.07-0.11
ETH: $24-80
NEO: $3-6
NANO: $0.75-0.85
BTC: $3000-35000
LTC: $20-30

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That's $3500, not 35000 for BTC ; )

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A lot of people are predicting levels, or even sub 1K. This is not impossible, but remember how euphoric people were at the top of the bubble? People were calling for 50K and 100K this year. The reality is NOBODY KNOWS. The chart certainly looks ugly, and like we can easily fall into a bottomless pit. However, there are some large buys happening in this $3-4K area. These are likely people with a lot of money who are trying to control a large amount of the supply. Now, why would they want to control that much Bitcoin? Two reasons:
1) Hardly anyone left to sell once it reaches the reversal point. Then price skyrockets.
2) Hardly anyone left so sell once it reaches the reversal point....except themselves. Yes, it is possible that institutions are destroying crypto intentionally by buying up the supply and shorting it at the same time. This would eventually cause the price to stagnate at a very low zone where no one wants to buy.

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Shorts are breaking new ATH's right now. This tells me that most retail investors are hopping on the short train, expecting to make easy money. We had another failed squeeze attempt again today, which further proves the weakness of the market, and explains why shorts are rising. I think we're getting close to the red scenario bottom (in my main chart). This can form anywhere between 2.9K and where we are now. The failure to get back above 3500 today tells me we should head a bit lower.

If we are indeed to head down to the 1.2-1.8K area, I think we'll have to consolidate a bit first before that happens (just like we did in the 6K range). I'd like to start seeing some real tradable bounces happening and a diagonal resistance being formed within the next few weeks or so.

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Finding support at 3.2K and bouncing back above the prior support at 3.5K is a fairly good sign that we've reached at least a medium term bottom. I'm still looking at these two scenarios and haven't really changed my view much, except I think it's increasingly unlikely that we will see a bull run within the next couple months. I think we will have to wait at least another year (red scenario) or until the end of 2022 (orange). I also think that it might take another full year to get down to the bottom of the bear market if that scenario plays out. I think it's unlikely that we drop straight through 2.9K but anything can happen. However, in the short term, I think we will need to test the descending triangle resistance soon. This would mean a substantial bounce, and a good sell opportunity if and when the resistance fails. I won't be updating much, as I'll be away soon and will force myself to take a longer break from this market.

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The structural profile of the log chart, along with the RSI, seems to most support the red scenario with the dotted red trend line. I think the crash down below 2K would only really happen if people lose total faith in Bitcoin's fundamentals. In that case, it'll take years to recover, if at all.

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If the red scenario happens to play out, this would mean a bounce target between $5.2 and 5.4K within the first two weeks of February. This corresponds nicely with the release of Bakkt.

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That target would be the converging resistance of the broken log trend line and the descending triangle resistance from the breakdown in March 2018.

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Also, crypto likes to surprise, so we can't completely rule out a break back ABOVE the log trend line...but I see that as pretty unlikely given the bearish momentum. If that happens, this drop was likely manufactured rather than an organic correction.

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Another possibility, just for fun. Being totally transparent here that this is ALL speculation. But it's fun to try to predict where things could go, based on long term trends and historically important areas. This is really the worst near term possibility, as I see it. If we have some continued panic selling, it could take us on another 50% decline towards the 1800 area, where we would likely see a V-shaped panic bottom. This would be an amazing trading opportunity, and if this happens, I may make a separate chart for a trading setup rather than comprehensive analysis (if I'm not on vacation at that point). Here's what that might look like (in green):

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Still seeing some big buys coming in here, which is a good sign that this area could be an accumulation zone and that we will avoid another panic low. Time will tell : ) This isn't advice to trade, but obviously I'd watch for a bearish break below 3.2K or a bullish break above 3.7K
Major supports:
3.4K (current)
3.2K
3K
2.9K
2.6K
1.8K
1.2K

Major Resistance:
3.6K
3.7K
4K
4.2K
4.5K
5.2K

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Looks like we're aiming for the low 3K area or 2.9K zone. No buyers have really stepped in, which is pretty concerning. Selling has slowed down since the triangle breakdown a month ago, but buying pressure has also weakened. Still no confirmed long signal. I'll be going away in a few days so won't be updating much.

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As I expected though, this thing has a hard time going straight through the 3200-3100 area, as I'm sure people have orders stacked all the way from the high 2800 to where we are now, expecting a bounce. It will take a much bigger push from the bears to get us down to 2900, but this can happen soon if the volume continues to rise. There have been a number of people waiting for these prices, but if they buy and don't see any bounce soon, they may sell and push the market down further. UNLESS there is some extreme manipulation going on in this market, I expect to see a decent sized relief rally soon. I think the MAXIMUM price for this rally will be in the low 5K's (based on the log chart). If we get above 5.8K somehow in the next several months, the bear market will be over, but this seems pretty unlikely. I DID say that breaking much below 6K seemed pretty unlikely back in October, so maybe I'm wrong again : )

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Looking at the long term monthly chart, we've actually broken support that dates all the way back to 2011. This at first seems like bad news, but a number of indicators are pointing to at least a local bottom where we are currently. If here were to be a bottom of sorts, we can also find some log support on the red line here. I wouldn't get my hopes up until any sort of confirmation. Buyers still haven't shown up, and longs are almost at an ATH. However, as we know, the shorts and longs don't necessarily indicate what's going to happen, but they often make a move seem more sensible. For example, these longs might have opened up because this IS a convincing bottom, and perhaps they have some insider knowledge. Or they can just be retail traders calling the bottom too early, only to be liquidated on the next big move down. Hard to say. The chart looks nasty, and like we're headed straight to 1K or lower. But it will only look that way UNTIL there is a bounce. It could look very different several months from now. Anyway, I'm going on vacation for 12 days and won't be updating while I'm gone. Good luck everyone!

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Looks like I was right about 3200 being likely at least a mid-term bottom. The weekly candle really needs to close above 3700 in order to confirm a relief rally back above 4K. As I said before, I give the MAXIMUM target for this rally to be in low 5K area. It's likely we stall anywhere from $4.5-4.8K as well, so be careful. However, if we somehow get back above 6K, this was likely a giant shakeout by market makers. Much better to wait for confirmation though. I'll be away the next two weeks so this is my final update for now (leaving today). We need to see how this behaves if we get up to $3.6-3.7K. Momentum indicators will be very important.

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Since this has rallied faster than I expected, I'm posting a small update. Will come back maybe next week to evaluate. We closed above 3700, which provided fuel to get above 4K, as I mentioned would happen if that area held. Now since this has moved up faster than I expected, we might have enough momentum to actually break the log trend line and try to test the descending triangle resistance. This currently lies in the 5800-6000 area. If we break out above there, the bear market will likely be over, and we will have a second bubble phase in 2019. If we break down from there, we will probably slowly head back down to 3.2K and test it again as support before deciding on another direction.

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Woops, wrong chart. Although it's interesting that we've pretty much followed my red scenario on the above chart exactly. This is what I meant to post:

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We also might have a pullback soon to retest somewhere between 3900 and 3700. Good luck everyone!

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Looks like we had the pullback, but it was fairly short lived. We're now trying to break out of the 4100-4200 zone in order to test the broken log trend line once again. If we confirm above it, this will be a sign that this whole November-December selloff was a final capitulation move.

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However, I would be extra cautious and not go full-on bull mode until we break and hold above 5800/6K with conviction. The bear market is not over. Good luck everyone and happy holidays!