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When Will It End? - How Bitcoin Can Break Out of Consolidation

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Man, the market is really testing everyone's nerves again. On top of that, the media seems to be churning out negative news articles one after another. Funny how the articles were all incredibly bullish when Bitcoin was above 60k. This is how crypto works. The news cycles help create liquidity. Causing people to panic as prices move down can create more room for big buyers to purchase coins at lower prices. I'm seeing plenty of crypto veterans even calling an end to the current bull market right now. This is something keeping me cautiously bullish here.

Since this market is driven by a grotesque combination of classic supply & demand and volatile emotions, TA seems to work quite well. But often, the market will create maximum pain before reversing. The gains anyone has had since being into crypto since the end of 2017 have not come easily. It has required a lot of patience through extended drawdowns of sometimes 80% or more. This is what one must be prepared for when purchasing crypto, though perhaps the market is beginning to mature to a point where those larger corrections are less likely for bigger cap coins.

Anyway, Bitcoin is still in a gigantic curved pattern, which can be observed on the lefthand chart. I've been talking about this for weeks. I've drawn a couple of potential bullish scenarios. On the right, Bitcoin is trying to find support at an important long term trendline. When it breaks below and sustains, it usually means many months of stagnation/decline. A breakdown could send Bitcoin towards my pink trendline and the red X.

No one knows whether the trend is reversing, or if it's just healthy consolidation. So far, there's nothing in the charts that tells me this is the beginning of a multi-year bear market. A consolidation this long near the highs tells me that there are still plenty of buyers up here - meaning that if Bitcoin can clear 60k, this area should become an important long term support level. In order to break out, Bitcoin will need to clear that curved resistance. Before doing so, it can make one final drop towards the curved support, which is conveniently also near the 9 month EMA. It also might reverse before it reaches that level. As price drifts lower, it doesn't seem to happen rapidly - instead, it's a slow grind down. But price has yet to reach sufficient demand from buyers.

For quite a while, I've been talking about an eventual test of the 9 month EMA (which served as support during the last bull market). It still hasn't happened, but this is the closest we've gotten so far.

I even thought it could happen earlier this year, but Bitcoin kept charging on relentlessly. A big pause like this makes sense. The 9 month EMA currently lies around 38.1k. I think a drop down there would still look healthy on the monthly timeframe. A break and close below, and I may consider the bull market over for the time being.

That's all! Now is the time to wait and see. This is not financial advice. This is for speculation and entertainment only.

-Victor Cobra

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The red scenario below is the most obvious bearish scenario people are seeing - it's the clearest pattern. Our brains love symmetry. Therefore, it seems likely that if Bitcoin is to move higher, it needs to invalidate the most likely bearish outcome. This could take some time.

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If Bitcoin can get back above 46k with some convincing volume, perhaps the low is set already.

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Finally finding some decent buy volume. If it's enough to take us back above in the short term, the low might be set. Also continuing to find support on the long term Bitstamp trendline (light blue)

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If Bitcoin manages to reverse from here, perhaps we see something like this - with an eventual top above 200k sometime later this year, and then an eventual retrace to near current levels (confirming it as support).

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Resting right on the long term trendline with a triple bottom developing here. Litecoin and other alts look strong. Oscillator showing a divergence. Is this it? Or do we see one final panic low?

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Wow, panic low right at the pink trendline! This market never ceases to amaze me.

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Looking at the weekly, I don't want to see Bitcoin find the 9w EMA as resistance as it bounces (orange). That might be a sign we're in for a longer bearish period.

The 9 month EMA holds so far.

If we begin a new bear market, I think Bitcoin should find a floor at around , which is an untested strong liquidity level. The 50 month MA (red) should have moved up towards $13-14k by then.

-Victor Cobra

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Since this recovery has stalled, I'm starting to consider the possibility of prices eventually. So we'll see. These are now the two extremes I'm looking at. Will provide a bigger update soon.

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Update:

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Still behaving how I would expect it to in the extreme shakeout scenario, but I think time is starting to run out a bit for buyers to show their strength. Need to see a strong bounce to begin the week, in my opinion. Would be amazing if Bitcoin followed the blue line on the main chart for this analysis.

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The curved structure holds so far, which means the dump to 30k might have simply been an overreaction. If you're long term bullish on Bitcoin, you buy when there's an overreaction to the downside. Even if the structure is broken momentarily, it often finds its way back.