BTC has clearly been in a strong uptrend since 40k, pushing to ATH really without any pullback.
In fact, not a lot of people were longing, actually retail was pretty aggressive trying to short every single "high". This was clearly the case with the funding rate never getting above 0.01 during this entire uptrend
Quick explanation : A positive funding rate is bearish, a negative one is bullish
funding rate between 0.01 and 0.02 is normal, from .02 to .075 is high, .075 and higher is extreme
This being said, yesterday the funding rate was .02
Now that we have broken the ATH the funding rate jumped to .09 (meaning everyone is longing)
For this reason, I would be very cautious for a pullback in the coming days.
This doesn't mean that we can't go higher, it is just not very likely at this point
For the resistance, you can see this pitchfork which has been respected very well
We are now at the 1.5 (in purple), however when we were at 40k it was the 1.75 (in red) which was respected. So we could push to the 1.75 before seeing a rejecting
I would look at those 2 levels for rejections, and I hope that I don't have to remind you that this is not a good place to long
As I always say : long support, short resistance. Not the other way around
Right now retail is longing resistance.
Any questions?
Good luck traders
Remember not to break your rules
Habib
In fact, not a lot of people were longing, actually retail was pretty aggressive trying to short every single "high". This was clearly the case with the funding rate never getting above 0.01 during this entire uptrend
Quick explanation : A positive funding rate is bearish, a negative one is bullish
funding rate between 0.01 and 0.02 is normal, from .02 to .075 is high, .075 and higher is extreme
This being said, yesterday the funding rate was .02
Now that we have broken the ATH the funding rate jumped to .09 (meaning everyone is longing)
For this reason, I would be very cautious for a pullback in the coming days.
This doesn't mean that we can't go higher, it is just not very likely at this point
For the resistance, you can see this pitchfork which has been respected very well
We are now at the 1.5 (in purple), however when we were at 40k it was the 1.75 (in red) which was respected. So we could push to the 1.75 before seeing a rejecting
I would look at those 2 levels for rejections, and I hope that I don't have to remind you that this is not a good place to long
As I always say : long support, short resistance. Not the other way around
Right now retail is longing resistance.
Any questions?
Good luck traders
Remember not to break your rules
Habib
