Option 1) Long Bull trend. 1D Chart.
Market currently appears to show a bear trend in Elliot wave 4 of 5.
We are looking to enter on a confirmation bar moving higher from a wave 5 bottom.
This may or may not be lower than the previous wave 3 low, signalling either exhaustion or a shift in momentum to the up side. Either way, we would expect movement toward the short term average, green dash line.
Should an ABC Elliot wave begin to form, exercise caution and consider locking profit as this may signal the start of a Long Bear trend.
Option 2) Long Bear trend, back to long term average, green dotted line.
We see a channel forming (red dotted lines).
An example of what this scenario may look like can be seen between Nov-2017 and Mar-2018.
The opportunity here is, using lower chart timeframe, buy/sell lower/upper red channel on approach to the green dotted line provided the trend holds.
This option assumes more risk than option 1 as we are working against the trend by buying pullbacks in a downward market.
For this option to be nullified, the channel structure would be breached with price finding new support/resistance outside of this channel.
Option 3) Alternatively, this could be an ABC Elliot wave, with wave 4 actually being wave 1 of a bull 5 wave. If so, we would expect this to break the red channel, see signs of wave 2 pullback and would look to enter on a confirmation bar moving higher to form wave 3.
Market currently appears to show a bear trend in Elliot wave 4 of 5.
We are looking to enter on a confirmation bar moving higher from a wave 5 bottom.
This may or may not be lower than the previous wave 3 low, signalling either exhaustion or a shift in momentum to the up side. Either way, we would expect movement toward the short term average, green dash line.
Should an ABC Elliot wave begin to form, exercise caution and consider locking profit as this may signal the start of a Long Bear trend.
Option 2) Long Bear trend, back to long term average, green dotted line.
We see a channel forming (red dotted lines).
An example of what this scenario may look like can be seen between Nov-2017 and Mar-2018.
The opportunity here is, using lower chart timeframe, buy/sell lower/upper red channel on approach to the green dotted line provided the trend holds.
This option assumes more risk than option 1 as we are working against the trend by buying pullbacks in a downward market.
For this option to be nullified, the channel structure would be breached with price finding new support/resistance outside of this channel.
Option 3) Alternatively, this could be an ABC Elliot wave, with wave 4 actually being wave 1 of a bull 5 wave. If so, we would expect this to break the red channel, see signs of wave 2 pullback and would look to enter on a confirmation bar moving higher to form wave 3.
코멘트:
Option 3 nullified. Options 1 and 2 still in play.
코멘트:
Option 2 nullified with break of red channel.
Option 1 still in play with what appears to be a truncated 5th wave.
Anticipating continuation of long bull trend and next move to be a wave 2 pull back.
Option 1 still in play with what appears to be a truncated 5th wave.
Anticipating continuation of long bull trend and next move to be a wave 2 pull back.