BTC Comparing Last Cycle with Current cycle.

2023년 7월 6일

Everything has to come to and end, sometime.

We have been bullish for god knows how long; weeks, months. Ever since the start of the year we've seen nothing but small dips and continued uptrend, the hated rally.

Which brings out the question, how long can this continue? Currently, we're at the 7th month mark and we've erased majority of the down moves that have come about due to unfortunate FUD/ events.
There is still 10 more months before the halving happens, meaning there's plenty of time for the price to go up and down and up and down.

NB! for this chart we consider the FEB 2020 crash as a black swan event, that doesn't/won't affect the chart.

The similarities of '18 and '21 are astounding, the respect for certain S/R levels are present. Bringing us to the dreaded question, can we use Last cycles moves to "predict" current cycles future moves.

I'm not going to go in to too much detail, as the chart speaks for itself.
Take note that every move has its own reasoning and is either exacerbated to the upside and/or the downside.

E.g.
The First top in 2021, was prime for a pullback for a continuation, but the effects of Covid exacerbated the dump and forced the market to enter a period of consolidation, before the next move up, which on it's own was also fueled by the strengthening of the economy pushing it to a new and a final high.

To sum up:
I don't think we are done yet with the pump on the High Time frame. and we are going to take out the previous high around the ~32.4k to trap late longers, people expecting the continuation of the bull to get some liquidity and then push downwards to create a macro low of 2023 and then we will set our eyes for the new bull cycle.


Extras:
1. BTC and ETH markets are very illiquid and Alts even more so.
Meaning while BTC might not make a new low, I expect many of the alts to do so. I am looking for a handful of ALTS ( FFTM, SOL,etc) have expectations new lows in 2023. At worst case scenario, I expect them to at the least test their previous low.

2. There is a possibility of Capitulation event to clear out all of the levered longs sub 22.5k. I do not know how deep the wick would go here, but I wouldn't put ~20k out of the question before we push upwards

Always remember ( I certainly sometimes forget):

The market is a place of PVP, for someone to make money, someone has to lose. This brings me to my last point.

3. ETF's, The large funds that are filing for their BTC ETF's are not stupid and they didn't make their money from blind luck (unlike most cryptobro funds that are now busted).

Even after the approval of the ETF's the funds will make certain to not enter a directional risk and make certain they are Delta Neutral (buy spot, short perps), which on it's own should have little to no effect on the BTC price, the pump will come from everyone buying the news of the approval all the while Funds that just got approved will start opening new Shorts marking the local top. These funds need people to buy their product to make maximum gains.