“BABA’s 10% Surge: Institutional Override or Retail FOMO?”

Date: 24th September 2025
Time: 09:00 PM IST

🔹 Fundamental News

Alibaba (BABA) soared +10% intraday after reports of structural reforms and government-backed stimulus supporting Chinese tech giants. Positive earnings whisper + buyback speculation added fuel.

🔹 Public Sentiment & Behavior

Retail: Chasing the gap, heavy FOMO entries near 180.

Institutions: Smart money accumulated in the 160–165 zone last week, distributing partial at resistance.

Social Signal: Headlines scream “Tech Recovery!”, but structure shows override-driven breakout rather than organic rescue.

🔹 Current Structure

Macro :

Resistance: 185–190

Support: 160–162


Micro :

Resistance: 180 barrier zone tested.

Support: 172.5–174.2 micro floor.

Behavior: Controlled pullback already attempted; override path extended momentum.

🔹 Projection

Primary Path (65%): Pullback to 174–175 → continuation toward 185–190.

Alternate Path (25%): Breakdown under 172.5 → collapse back to 165–167.

Low Path (10%): Direct extension above 190 → only with follow-through sentiment surge.

🔹 Pullback Levels

Shallow: 175–176.2

Medium: 172.5–174.2

Deep: 165–167 (rescue-driven)

🔹 Final View

Bias: Bullish Override confirmed. Path remains higher unless 172.5 breaks. Macro structure supports 185–190.

🔹 Essence

“Market isn’t running on retail FOMO, but on institutional override. Pullbacks are reloads, not rescues. Unless 172.5 breaks, bulls hold the throne.”

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. Not financial advice. Market decisions are your sole responsibility.