롱

AUDUSD: Weekly Forecast

업데이트됨

The Aussie will be highly watched this week as RBA releases its monetary policy as well as employment data.

AUDUSD was somewhat bearish last week as it fell but found support and recovered half of the loss.

The rebound came from multiple technical support such as the bottom of a rising channel as well as moving averages.

Otherwise, AUDUSD is technically a bullish pair for more than a year now and climbing very much like the US stock indices.

That's mostly contributed by rising inflation which causes commodity prices to go up and Aussie, as most should already know, is a commodity currency.

While we can continue to look for buying opportunities near the support, the upside is limited as the market is about to reach the equilibrium level slightly above 0.80.

Price of interest:
Resistance: 0.7890, 0.8080 (equilibrium)
Support: 0.7730 (bottom of channel), 0.7690 (equilibrium)

노트

Nothing has really changed in RBA's monetary policy stance and it has little impact on the Aussie.

Based on what we've forecast this week, the price is has recovered from a pullback and is now trading higher.

We continue to see more upside but we will need to watch 0.7810 for resistance.

Speaking of a head and shoulder, there is somewhat a similar pattern but we don't in our case, it is NOT an HnS (take a look at the W1 chart and it's all clear).

While there seems to be a lot of resistance ahead, the fundamentals are strong and it is technically a bullish pair.

노트

As cautioned, 0.7810 is an important resistance to beware.
Indeed, the price was continuously resisted at 0.7810 during the last US session and it finally fell during today's EU session.
However, it now finds support at the bottom of the major rising channel, also the previous low at 0.7730.
Volatility is very low as of writing as the market awaits FOMC.
From a risk-reward pov, this support is a pretty good opportunity to take on and losses can be very low even if it decides to break below the channel.

노트

As AUDUSD continues to trade along the bottom of the channel, there's a growing urge for it to go up asap.
Simply put, if a support/resistance has been consistently retested without strong rebound/rejection, the chance of it breaking becomes high.
On the other side of the coin, it could also means a tightening consolidation awaiting strong movement, which in this case, a strong bullish rebound.
What would it be? We will find out today!