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AUD/USD Declines Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Key Economic Dat

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading lower against the US Dollar (USD) after key economic data released on Thursday added downward pressure to the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair. The market is also reacting to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with risk appetite fading as concerns mount. According to the Israeli Broadcasting Authority (IBA), Israel’s security cabinet has decided to issue a strong response to a recent Iranian attack, which saw Iran launch over 200 ballistic missiles and drone strikes on Israel on Tuesday night.

This escalating conflict has weighed heavily on risk assets like the Australian dollar, as investors move toward safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar in times of geopolitical instability.

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Risk-Off Sentiment
The increased volatility in the Middle East is driving investors to reassess their exposure to risk-sensitive assets, with the AUD/USD pair feeling the impact. Rising tensions between Israel and Iran have spooked markets, dampening risk appetite and pushing traders toward safe-haven currencies like the US dollar. As geopolitical risks escalate, risk-off sentiment is likely to continue pressuring the Australian dollar, which is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment.

Key Economic Data Adds to AUD's Weakness
Adding to the AUD’s woes, the recent economic data released on Thursday has contributed to its decline against the USD. The data has underscored the challenges facing the Australian economy, with weaker-than-expected results further diminishing the currency’s appeal. In contrast, the US dollar has remained buoyant, supported by stronger economic fundamentals and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Faces Further Downside
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair reversed after touching a key Supply area, which aligned with our previous forecast. This reversal is consistent with the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows that retail traders have aggressively increased their long positions, typically a contrarian indicator signaling further downside.

The pair is now poised for a potential continuation of the downtrend, with bears likely eyeing additional levels of support as the US dollar strengthens amid both geopolitical concerns and a favorable economic backdrop.

Conclusion: Bearish Outlook for AUD/USD
The combination of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weaker domestic economic data has placed significant pressure on the Australian dollar. As risk sentiment continues to shift away from risk-sensitive assets like the AUD, the pair is likely to experience further downside, especially if geopolitical risks escalate and the US dollar remains strong.

Traders should monitor developments in the Middle East closely, as well as any further economic data that could influence the direction of the AUD/USD pair. For now, the bearish momentum remains intact, and the pair could see continued weakness in the near term.

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