The Aussie is in a corrective ABC cycle.
The A wave has completed in 5 waves.
The B wave has completed - either in 3 waves a flat or a truncated triangle .
The C wave is in play.
If the B wave was a flat , then we are currently at minor wave 3.
If the B wave was a triangle , then we are currently at minor wave 2.
Knowing the exact count doesn't really matter. Either c wave count is in corrective mode.
The recent daily formation of an Evening Star lends weight to a move down. Bearish divergence is apparent on the MACD.
There is continuing support for the Aussie. The latest COT data shows net longs increasing from 19749 to 32414, with expanding open interest.
With a comparison of 10 year bond yields Aussie to US = 2.98% vs 2.38%. In a world of possibly still zero yield , this carry trade is attractive.
So fundamentally the Aussie is a buy , technically waiting for a fib retracement in the .50 - .618 ( monthly S1 support) , may be a good place to enter. :)
The A wave has completed in 5 waves.
The B wave has completed - either in 3 waves a flat or a truncated triangle .
The C wave is in play.
If the B wave was a flat , then we are currently at minor wave 3.
If the B wave was a triangle , then we are currently at minor wave 2.
Knowing the exact count doesn't really matter. Either c wave count is in corrective mode.
The recent daily formation of an Evening Star lends weight to a move down. Bearish divergence is apparent on the MACD.
There is continuing support for the Aussie. The latest COT data shows net longs increasing from 19749 to 32414, with expanding open interest.
With a comparison of 10 year bond yields Aussie to US = 2.98% vs 2.38%. In a world of possibly still zero yield , this carry trade is attractive.
So fundamentally the Aussie is a buy , technically waiting for a fib retracement in the .50 - .618 ( monthly S1 support) , may be a good place to enter. :)
코멘트:
On a lower time frame, the evening star appears as a potential H&S pattern.... :)