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ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2019.11.21

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A superb few months for AUD and with the Giant Panda sitting on the bid it remains my most optimistic currency in the G10 space. I am noticing impressive sizes coming in again with markets pricing the Australian recovery theme, largely driven by commodity prices which will help Chinese growth and the export outlook for AUD.

Those following in the Telegram will know I have been long AUD since we changed outlooks in June:

For the macro charts lets kick off firstly with AUD:

The Morrison housing campaign single handedly held consumption growth, probably the most memorable policy in his premiership. AUD recovery will continue into 2020 with fiscal and monetary aligned, the RBA shift away from easing after February means we can comfortably lean on this cross for the coming months and quarters.

Short-term flows remain the same:

NZD also outperforming vs USD, I have posted my 2020 Macro Map here:

Lastly on the USD side, for the long-term chart the infamous "Dollar Focus" :

For the more immediate term, I have recently posted a new DXY chart. Key takeaways come from the update in year-end target to a 96 handle:

Expecting Weakness In Dollar Into Year End

Here looking to continue trading the buy side in AUD, targeting 0.70 for Dec makes sense to me. Keep the likes and feedback coming if these strategy ideas are helping.

Good luck!

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