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AUD/USD Edges Lower Amid Strong US Dollar and Robust US Jobs Dat

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) declined on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) maintained its strength, bolstered by robust US jobs data for May. This development has reduced the likelihood of two Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September by at least 25 basis points has dropped to nearly 49.0%, down from 59.5% a week earlier.

Market Dynamics

Strong US Dollar: The USD continues to strengthen following impressive US jobs data, putting pressure on the AUD.

Reduced Rate Cut Expectations: The chances of a Fed rate cut in September have diminished, with current estimates showing a 49.0% probability, compared to 59.5% last week.
Australian Dollar Outlook
Despite the current downward pressure, the downside for the Australian Dollar may be limited. Traders anticipate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain higher interest rates throughout the year, providing some support for the AUD.

Technical Analysis and Strategy
Aligned with our previous analysis, we are looking for a recovery in the AUD price. Key points to consider:

RBA Rate Policy: Expectations that the RBA will keep rates elevated may help support the AUD against further declines.

Potential Rebound: Technical indicators suggest the possibility of a price recovery, with traders watching for signs of a bullish reversal.

In conclusion the Australian Dollar is facing downward pressure due to a strong US Dollar and robust US jobs data, which have reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024. However, the downside for the AUD may be limited as traders expect the RBA to maintain higher interest rates. In line with our previous analysis, we are monitoring for a potential recovery in the AUD, looking for bullish signals to confirm a reversal.

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