Parliament vs. Johnson, China vs. USA, AUDJPY

2019년 9월 4일

GBP updated its lowest level since 2016 been in a pair with USD, but after soared at 100+ points for half an hour. The reasons for these movements we announced yesterday - the opposition of the British Parliament and Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

We briefly outline the events of yesterday. A group of deputies is planning to initiate a bill where Boris Johnson will have to ask for another Brexit suspension if he can not conclude a new deal with Europe. Expectedly, Johnson he took it hard, saying that he would rather hold an early election than allow maltreat him. So far, the alignment of forces in the Parliament was not in Johnson's favor (about 20 people from his party went against Johnson), which is good for the pound.

Note that although there is no certainty yet. If events continue to develop similarly, its further decline, for example with the dollar, to the area of 1.10 paired can be put aside for now.

There are no changes in the trade war development. China’s ceasefire proposal (delay the introduction of tariffs) was rejected by the United States. At the same time, there is no concrete start date for the negotiation process. So our recommendations on the sale of safe haven assets remain relevant.

Moreover, global production is slowing down. The PMI indices around the world are showing that. The eurozone as a whole, Germany in particular and the UK - everywhere indices went below 50, which indicates a decrease in business activity in the manufacturing sector. Well, the news on business activity in the manufacturing sector in the USA disappointed the markets. The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector (ISM Manufacturing) fell below 50 the same as in 2016. The consequences of the trade war are becoming more and more obvious.

Hurricane Dorian is weakening. So the United States may well get off with slap on the wrist. Although, according to UBS Group estimates, even such a good end will cost about $ 25 billion - the result of the massive flights cancellation and other consequences of the hurricane.

And finally, we note that the Reserve Bank of Australia left the rate unchanged yesterday. The fact of not cutting rates can be considered as a positive for the Australian dollar, which triggered its growth yesterday. However, in the light of the ongoing trade war, we would not have rushed to buy it in a hurry.

However if China and the United States close on the agreement in September, then it is the Australian dollar that could be stronger than others. At the same time, we agree with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which recommends buying the Australian dollar not paired with the US dollar, but paired with the yen. Their logic is generally understandable - the end of the trade war, on the one hand, will provoke demand for commodity currencies, which include the Australian dollar, and on the other hand will lead to a sharp drop in demand for safe-haven assets, which include the Japanese yen. That is, the AUDJPY pair will receive a double reason for growth. So we recommend our readers to follow the development of events and keep in mind this deal (purchase AUDJPY) - potentially we are talking about 600-800 points of profit.