A timely update to the previous AUDNZD weekly chart and after completing the initial selloff we are set for a major leg to the topside. Before we dig into the Fundamental and Technical side I recommend for those following to start by reviewing the previous charts to understand how and why we are trading the lows:
On the AUD side, markets are pricing an RBA move in Q120 with 50bps cut 60% priced in. Should see some unwinding for those outguessing a surprise like we did with RBNZ. Australian surpluses is providing a mattress to AUD as the historically low yield pick-up is allows deficits to be financed. Perhaps what is most interesting of all and highlights the underlying shift towards the USD devaluation / reflationary theme comes from real money managers who have started to take profits on their AUD shorts after RBA delivered in June & July are once again reaching extremes and ready to unwind again.
On the NZD side, NZD is not expected to outperform AUD however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. Markets have reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which is what has supported NZD in the short-medium term. For the fiscal side, we had highlights going overnight to NZ announcing a big round of fiscal spending. Markets have since gone overboard selling AUDNZD. In any case, here is the NZDUSD map for 2020:
For the technicals I am tracking an impulsive swing to the highs after markets completed plumbing the 1.03xx lows via NZ fiscal flows (a mouthful). Those with a background in waves will know we have market the lows in a multi year 5 wave sequence which we traded live here:
….and can lean on the AUD macro directional side:
Lastly for those following NZDCAD and AUDCAD flows are sitting comfortably in profits and can let the rest run for our final targets:
Best of luck all those trading the lows and buying dips. Please keep your support coming with likes and jump into the conversation comments with your views and charts as usual!
On the AUD side, markets are pricing an RBA move in Q120 with 50bps cut 60% priced in. Should see some unwinding for those outguessing a surprise like we did with RBNZ. Australian surpluses is providing a mattress to AUD as the historically low yield pick-up is allows deficits to be financed. Perhaps what is most interesting of all and highlights the underlying shift towards the USD devaluation / reflationary theme comes from real money managers who have started to take profits on their AUD shorts after RBA delivered in June & July are once again reaching extremes and ready to unwind again.
On the NZD side, NZD is not expected to outperform AUD however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. Markets have reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which is what has supported NZD in the short-medium term. For the fiscal side, we had highlights going overnight to NZ announcing a big round of fiscal spending. Markets have since gone overboard selling AUDNZD. In any case, here is the NZDUSD map for 2020:
For the technicals I am tracking an impulsive swing to the highs after markets completed plumbing the 1.03xx lows via NZ fiscal flows (a mouthful). Those with a background in waves will know we have market the lows in a multi year 5 wave sequence which we traded live here:
….and can lean on the AUD macro directional side:
Lastly for those following NZDCAD and AUDCAD flows are sitting comfortably in profits and can let the rest run for our final targets:
Best of luck all those trading the lows and buying dips. Please keep your support coming with likes and jump into the conversation comments with your views and charts as usual!
액티브 트레이드
