NZD Fundamental analysis :
The New Zealand Dollar is in for a volatile period in the week ahead as a hefty dose of domestic fundamental event risk is compounded by high-profile macro-level developments. On the home front, the spotlight is on the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. September’s outing marked a shift into wait-and-see mode after four consecutive rate increases. The central bank is widely expected to maintain the benchmark lending rate unchanged again, putting the policy statement under the microscope as traders attempt to infer where officials will steer next.
Last month, the RBNZ argued that while “it is prudent to undertake a period of monitoring and assessment before considering further policy adjustment…some further policy tightening will be necessary.” Since then, CPI inflation has plunged to the weakest in a year while the exchange rate – a perennial source of concern over recent months – arrested a three-month decline and began to recover. This may prompt the central bank to withdraw language signaling renewed rate hikes are on the horizon after the current “assessment period” runs its course, an outcome which stands to undercut yield-based support for the New Zealand Dollar and send prices lower.
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RSI - Uder 30
Bollinger Bands - touch down line
Touch minimum historical 1.058
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Target : ~1.090
The New Zealand Dollar is in for a volatile period in the week ahead as a hefty dose of domestic fundamental event risk is compounded by high-profile macro-level developments. On the home front, the spotlight is on the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. September’s outing marked a shift into wait-and-see mode after four consecutive rate increases. The central bank is widely expected to maintain the benchmark lending rate unchanged again, putting the policy statement under the microscope as traders attempt to infer where officials will steer next.
Last month, the RBNZ argued that while “it is prudent to undertake a period of monitoring and assessment before considering further policy adjustment…some further policy tightening will be necessary.” Since then, CPI inflation has plunged to the weakest in a year while the exchange rate – a perennial source of concern over recent months – arrested a three-month decline and began to recover. This may prompt the central bank to withdraw language signaling renewed rate hikes are on the horizon after the current “assessment period” runs its course, an outcome which stands to undercut yield-based support for the New Zealand Dollar and send prices lower.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
RSI - Uder 30
Bollinger Bands - touch down line
Touch minimum historical 1.058
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Target : ~1.090