Looking at the pair, it pushed down to a key support level of 89.361. Traders rejected going down below those prices and the bullish momentum built up to take the pair to the resistance level at 92.309 (0.382 fib). Prices then fell to reject the support of 91.177 (0.236 fib) and break the pivot or previous high @ 92.357 to push towards the 93.101 near the 93.223 resistance (0.50 fib). Looking at Andrew's pitchfork we could see that the pair is freed from the bottom purple line and is pushing up towards the middle line (which if broke could be a possible sign of a trend reversal). However, the pair is likely to find key resistance little below the 100 day moving average (light blue line). Given that the pair is pressured by the lowered interest rates by the RBA, I expect that the pair might fail to break above the 100 DMA or the 0.5 Fib. However a break above the 100 DMA would take the price up to the 94.612 resistance level, and the long term view would still be on the down trend. A very short term long position could be profitable, but I avoid taking positions against the big picture trend. Given that the pair is still trading below the middle pitchfork line.
ENJOY :)
ENJOY :)
