AUDJPY Top-Down Analysis

Hello Traders,

Here is the Top-Down Analysis of AUDJPY (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for

Week 48 - Nov 23

M > Market is moving in a bearish channel. Price faced rejection to the downside from resistance of channel. After impulsive bullish move we expect a drop till 0.382 Fib level that will also create an inverted H & S pattern as well. Hence for long term we can have a bearish target.

W > We can see long term bearish target of neck of W formation. Price is currently testing weekly supply zone.

D > We can see a W formation and its neck provides us short term bearish target. Price dropped facing rejection at daily supply zone and has paused for correction after hitting daily dead zone. We can expect continuation of bearish move after correction.

As per COT AUD saw further closure of Long and closure of Short, reducing net positions (now in -ve). We can see closure of Long and addition of Short in last couple of months, making net positions move from 16K to -08K. AXY weakened during the said period but recovered slightly last week. JPY saw closure of major Long and some Short positions reducing net positions massively in comparison with last report, bringing both Long and Short to least in current year. JXY dropped during the said period but gained strength last week.
As long as AUD is weak we can expect drop in this pair.

4H > Price is dropping respecting bearish resistance trend-line. We can enter Short again to compound our position.

Pair Correlation > AUDJPY has positive correlation with AUDUSD and AUDCHF and negative correlation with EURAUD.

This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.

Thank You
AP17FX