5/30/24 - $asan - temped to buy C's mkt seems offsides; risky AF

5월 30일

5/30/24 - vrockstar - ASAN - 3.7x sales for co growing sales ~10% pa (or that's the expectation) this year is too much esp for sub-scale software

so this is a mega high risk thing to own especially since *all?* software is getting dumped - give me a handful of names where that's not the case - and you've accounted for all of them.

so the low risk way of playing this is defn to sit it out. that's probably what i'll end up doing. however, i'd be more inclined to play a 8 DTE short situation with 50% of shares held by insiders, the quarterly bogey (and thus the next Q guide) as possibly light and a surprise to the upside. they seem to be inflecting on opex (flat) pretty nicely on the gross profit side of things.

what's the right price on this where you have a tough time losing money? 20-25 lower? is it a LT compounder? - possibly yes - given that opex flex i'm noticing, but this environment won't care b/c the factors don't really check the boxes. if i were going to play this long, it would be OTM calls of some variety. the P's skew into print gets zero'd and there's some readjustment of short cover and organic buying.

in other words, i think the market might be offsides here and while risk is high both ways - i think 50/50 into results - upside probably 20-30% move, downside 10-15% all else equal.

anyone have a more nuanced view on print/ name?