AppFolio, Inc.

4/25/24 - $appf print skews -ve - vrockstar

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4/25/24 - vrockstar - great growth, nothing fundamentally wrong here which is suicide to short in an everprintmonetaryjokeworld, but i'm defn not buying this print and could consider a short on an outsize pop here. 10x revenue is not the right multiple for sub 30-40% 2y cagr growth and with these semi-but-let's-be-real non-software mgns (I get it, they'll scale, but just not in the immediate term which is how the market pays for a well-bid name here). any collapse or bad guide here sends this down 20%. hard to even buy that - i'm sure you could scalp a 5% if timed right. but i'm not buying a beat, and i'm not trying to scalp here... so while i'd say sidelines, it's realistically a stay away and probably -ve result all else equal.

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