ADBE Earnings Play – Moderately Bullish into AMC (2025-06-11)

📈 ADBE Earnings Play – Moderately Bullish into AMC (2025-06-11)
Ticker: ADBE (Adobe Inc.)
Event: Earnings Report — 🗓 June 12, After Market Close
Bias: ✅ Moderately Bullish | Confidence: 72%
Strategy: Single-leg Call | Expiry: June 13, 2025

🔍 Market & Options Snapshot
• Price: ~$416.06
• Historical Move: ~6.5% avg. post-earnings (5 of 8 quarters up)
• IV Rank: 0.75 — Elevated, with expected 25–30% crush post-release
• Narrative Drivers: AI/Creative segment strength, positive analyst sentiment
• Max Pain: $400 (below current price, but overshadowed by bullish catalysts)

🧠 AI Model Consensus
✅ Bullish Bias (3/4 Models):

Grok/xAI & Llama/Meta: Favor the $420 Call (ask $12.65) for a balanced risk/reward

Gemini/Google: Also bullish, suggests call spread but agrees $420 Call is viable

⚠️ Contrarian (1/4 – DeepSeek):

Flags overbought RSI & IV crush risk

Proposes a deep-OTM $472.50 Call for asymmetric upside (lower conviction)

✅ Recommended Trade Setup
🎯 Direction: CALL

📍 Strike: $420

📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13 (weekly after earnings)

💵 Entry Price: $12.65

🎯 Profit Target: $15.00 (+19%)

🛑 Stop Loss: $10.00 (–21%)

📈 Confidence: 72%

⏰ Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close

📏 Size: 2 contracts (≈2% portfolio risk)

⚠️ Key Risks
IV Crush: If the move disappoints, premium may collapse

Overbought RSI: Short-term pullback risk pre-release

Negative Surprise: Weak guidance could send stock lower

Volatility Whipsaws: Earnings reactions can be choppy—use disciplined stops


💬 Are you playing Adobe this quarter? Calls or skips? Drop your strategy below!