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Cardano (ADA) And The Ascending Channel!

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Hey guys, as per a request from this afternoon, here's an analysis on the ADABTC pairing. I wrote on this chart what's going on pretty clearly. ADA failed to complete an inverse head and shoulders breakout pattern and has turned south towards the slow ascending channel support (in pink). This is actually in line with what Bitcoin did on its own against the U.S. Dollar back at the end of the 2015 bear market. This is interesting, since I've long speculated that most of this bubble has been a result of the ridiculous altcoin boom. This is why the bottoming process for many altcoins has been much more painful, extended, and severe. Not every coin will survive. That being said, ADA has some strong support, and it remains a top coin nonetheless, with a promising future IF they can deliver.

Looking at this chart, a couple of trading setups become apparent. Really depends on what your strategy is. If your goal is to hold for the long term, buying now doesn't seem to be a terrible idea, as we're close to the channel support, and we're also sitting on a very important horizontal support line (light blue). Finding support here is fairly bullish. However, I'd still be weary of a potential break below the pink rising support, even briefly for a capitulation low. The RSI and Ultimate Oscillator both look pretty good though.

A couple of potential short-term trading setups would be as follows:

SETUP 1
BUY:
1200-1250
SELL:
2000 or at channel resistance (top pink line)

SETUP 2
BUY:
2000+ (break of channel resistance)
SELL:
Target 1 - 3100-3200
Target 2 - 4000-4200
Target 3 - Potential Blow-off or new range

One could also SHORT a break below the channel support, but that might end up being a capitulation wick, so a little more risky for now, unless a break below is sustained. If you look at the USD chart, you'll see why I'm leaning more bullish. It looks a lot better than some other top altcoins like XLM, XRP, and ETH:

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Forgot to clarify on this analysis that this is not financial advice. Also just a quick update. ADA has headed lower towards the potential capitulation low I was talking about. Getting close to the bottom of the channel now. A break below would likely activate stop losses. Most alts still show no real signs of bouncing. I’d probably wait to enter until we see some sustained buying.

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Very close now! This would be an area to start looking for a bounce. If we dump below the support, I would look for some strong buying action/potential capitulation low.

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Since the bounce has been weak so far with low volume, I think the move would be to stay in th sidelines until we see a much stronger rejection. I’d like to see a rejection at a lower level and then a strong move back above 1250ish, ideally. That’s where a major pivot area is, as you can see on my chart.

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Typing on my iPad - meant “on the sidelines”

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Below the long term trendline. A daily and certainly weekly close below here would be a very bad sign, as buyers have still failed to show up. For now, this bullish setup is invalidated. As mentioned above, a bounce would need to take us ideally above 1250 to remain bullish on ADA.

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I know I said I’d wait for a bigger bounce, but the USD charts of some of these alts are looking too good now. Just entered a small position here in ADA.

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Update: