ABNB Investment Thesis

2023년 7월 14일

Slide 1 - Investment Thesis
Global leader in alternative accommodations with strong growth prospects
Benefits from network effects and high barriers to entry
Rapidly recovering from pandemic, financials exceeding pre-Covid levels
Significant runway for continued expansion in massive addressable market


Slide 2 - Financial Performance

- Revenue grew 70% in 2021 to 66B, expected to grow 35% in 2022 to over 88B
- Net income of 1.9B in 2021 vs loss of 4.6B in 2020
- Strong profit margins - Gross: 63%, EBITDA: 29%, Net: 26% in 2021
- Robust free cash flow of 2.8B in 2021, cash balance of 9.9B

Slide 3 - Growth Outlook

- Total addressable market in lodging, experiences and other areas is over $3 trillion
- Currently under 1% penetration of global lodging market
- New offerings significantly expand TAM:
- Airbnb Luxe (luxury rentals)
- Airbnb Categories (specific rental types)
- Airbnb Studios (urban apartments)
- Positive booking trends - nights and experiences booked up 20%+

Slide 4 - Efficiency
Asset turnover improved from 2020 to 2021 indicating increased efficiency
Return on Equity of 67% in 2021 demonstrates highly efficient use of capital

Slide 6 - Solvency
Has a healthy balance sheet with 9.9B in cash and 2.9B in long-term debt
Manageable debt levels at ~3x EBITDA
Can generate sufficient cash flow to service debt obligations

Slide 7 - Competitive Position

- Powerful network effects - hosts attract guests and vice versa
- Trust built through reputation system and reviews
- Operates a two-sided marketplace - difficult to disrupt
- Brand awareness, inventory density strengthen competitive advantages

Slide 8 - Valuation

- Average of valuation models suggests modest undervaluation:
- Discounted cash flow model: $120 per share
- Comps, multiples analysis: $110 - $135 per share
- Consensus Wall Street price target of $170 implies ~15% upside
- If executes on growth, substantial upside in stock over next 5 years

Slide 9 - Recommendation
Attractive risk/reward profile given leadership, TAM, competitive advantages
Q4 2022 results beat expectations across key metrics
Well-positioned to capitalize on rebound in travel demand
Rating: Buy, Price Target = $180