When Are We Shorting Metals?

2021년 10월 19일

Afternoon!

Just combing through charts, and I saw this one in Alcoa. Kinda insane.

Now, I know Metals are in vogue right now from both a narrative & flows perspective (positive and improving):

***
Financials 4
Energy 4
Consumer Cyclical 4
Consumer Defensive 2
Industrials 1
---- Materials 1----
Utilities 0
Technology 0
Real Estate -2
Communications -3
Healthcare -4
***

But seriously?? This chart is insane, and the temporary increase in profits from all of the shortages might last for the next two years, if we're lucky. Buying this at 12x FWD cash flows when that leading number is liable to drop seems like a LOT. I'm steering clear of stuff like this at these prices. With the rate situation, banks seem like a much better "value" play. KRE is something I'm actually considering.