Momentum Exhaustion UltimateMomentum Exhaustion Ultimate
Introduction
This indicator is a comprehensive market timing tool based on Consecutive Bar Counting logic. Unlike standard oscillators like RSI or MACD which smooth data using averages (lagging price), this strategy analyzes the specific sequence and persistence of price action to identify moments of trend exhaustion in real-time.
It is widely used on professional trading desks to answer one specific question: "Has the current trend run out of gas?"
The Core Philosophy
Markets do not move in straight lines; they move in waves of momentum and exhaustion. This strategy posits that a trend typically exhausts itself after a specific cadence of buying or selling pressure. By "counting" these pressure bars, we can identify high-probability zones where the market is likely to pause (Extension) or reverse completely (Exhaustion).
How It Works: The Two Phases
1. The Extension Phase (The "9"):
Goal: Identifies a trend that is becoming overextended (Momentum).
The Signal: A count of 9 consecutive bars closing higher/lower than the close 4 bars prior.
Meaning: This is a "Momentum Pause" signal. When a 9 appears, the market often corrects for 1-4 bars. It is the first warning sign of fatigue.
2. The Exhaustion Phase (The "13"):
Goal: Identifies the final exhaustion of the trend.
The Signal: A count of 13 bars (not necessarily consecutive) where price pushes to new extremes relative to the high/low 2 bars prior.
Meaning: This is the "Reversal" signal. The buying/selling pressure has likely fully capitulated, and a major counter-trend move is expected.
How To Use This Script
This indicator is not just a "reversal catcher." It includes institutional features (Structure Lines and Invalidation Levels) to help you manage the trade:
Don't Just Fade the "9": A "9" isn't always a buy signal. If the trend is strong, the "9" might just be a pause. Wait for the 13 for major reversals.
The "Quality Filter" (Diamond ♦): A signal is statistically stronger if the final bar (8 or 9) actually pushes deeper than previous bars. This script marks these high-quality signals with a Diamond (♦).
The Trend Barrier Breakout: The script plots Structural Support/Resistance Lines (Dashed Red/Green). If price ignores a Reversal Signal and breaks through this line, the reversal has failed. Cancel your fade and trade the Breakout (Trend Continuation). This is often the most profitable signal in the system.
The "Invalidation" Line: The Blue Dotted line represents the "Stop Loss" level derived from the volatility of the count. If price closes past this line, the signal is invalid—exit immediately.
Features Included in This Script:
Full Engine: Includes both the Extension (1-9) and Exhaustion (1-13) counters.
Wick-Sensitive Mode: Option to switch logic for fast-moving markets (Crypto/FX) to detect wicks rather than closes.
Deferral Logic: "Qualifier" rules that prevent a 13 from firing until momentum actually slows down.
Structure Lines: Institutional trend barriers for breakout trading.
Volatility Stops: Dynamic invalidation levels to protect capital.
Minimalist Mode: Hides the "number soup" to keep your chart clean, showing only actionable signals.
Pine Script® 인디케이터
