Partial Profit Calculator [TFO]This indicator was built to help calculate the outcome of trades that utilize multiple profit targets and/or multiple entries.
In its simplest form, we can have a single entry and a single profit target. As shown below in this long trade example, the indicator will draw risk and reward boxes (red and green, respectively) with several annotations. On the left-hand side, all entries will be displayed (in this case there is only one entry, "E1"). On the bottom, the "SL" label indicates the trade's stop loss placement. On the top, all target prices are displayed (in this case there is only one target, "TP1"). Lastly, on the right-hand side a label will display the total R that is to be expected from a winning trade, where R is one's unit of risk.
In the following example, we have two target prices - one at 18600 and one at 18700. You can input as many target prices as you'd like, separated by commas, i.e. "18600,18700" in this example. Make sure the values are separated by commas only, and not spaces, new lines, etc. As a result, we can see that the indicator draws where our profit targets would be with respect to our entry, E1. The indicator assumes that equal parts of the trade position are taken off at each target price. In this example on Nasdaq futures (NQ1!), since we have 2 target prices, this would be equivalent to assuming that we take exactly half the trade position off at TP1, and the remaining half of the position at TP2.
If we wanted to take more of the position off at a certain target, we could simply duplicate the target price. Here I set the target prices to "18600,18600,18700" to enforce that two thirds of the position be taken off at TP1 and TP2, while the remaining third gets taken off at TP3.
We can also show outcome annotations to describe how much R is generated from each possible trade outcome. Using the below chart as an example, the stop loss indicates a -1R loss. The total R from this trade criteria is 1.33 R, and each target price shows how much R is being generated if one were to take off an equal part of the position at said target prices. In this case, we would generate 0.17 R from taking one third of the position off at TP1, another 0.5 R from taking one third of the position off at TP2, and another 0.67 R from taking the remaining one third of the position off at TP3, all adding up to the total R indicated on the right-hand side label.
Using multiple entries works the same way as using multiple target prices, where the input should indicate each entry price separated by commas. In this example I've used "18550,18450" to achieve an average price of 18500, as indicated by the "E_avg" label that appears when more than one entry price is utilized. We can also opt to display risk as dollars instead of R values, where you can input your desired risk per trade, and all values are shown as dollar amounts instead of R multiples, as shown below with a risk per trade of $100.
This is meant to be an educational tool for trades that utilize multiple profit targets and/or entries. Hope you like it!
스크립트에서 "one一季度财报"에 대해 찾기
ATR Bands with Optional Risk/Reward Colors█ OVERVIEW
This indicator projects ATR bands and, optionally, colors them based on a risk/reward advantage for those who trade breakouts/breakdowns using moving averages as partial or full exit points.
█ DEFINITIONS
► True Range
The True Range is a measure of the volatility of a financial asset and is defined as the maximum difference among one of the following values:
- The high of the current period minus the low of the current period.
- The absolute value of the high of the current period minus the closing price of the previous period.
- The absolute value of the low of the current period minus the closing price of the previous period.
► Average True Range
The Average True Range was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and was introduced in his 1978 book titled "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems". It is calculated as an average of the true range values over a certain number of periods (usually 14) and is commonly used to measure volatility and set stop-loss and profit targets (1).
For example, if you are looking at a daily chart and you want to calculate the 14-day ATR, you would take the True Range of the previous 14 days, calculate their average, and this would be the ATR for that day. The process is then repeated every day to obtain a series of ATR values over time.
The ATR can be smoothed using different methods, such as the Simple Moving Average (SMA), the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), or others, depending on the user's preferences or analysis needs.
► ATR Bands
The ATR bands are created by adding or subtracting the ATR from a reference point (usually the closing price). This process generates bands around the central point that expand and contract based on market volatility, allowing traders to assess dynamic support and resistance levels and to adapt their trading strategies to current market conditions.
█ INDICATOR
► ATR Bands
The indicator provides all the essential parameters for calculating the ATR: period length, time frame, smoothing method, and multiplier.
It is then possible to choose the reference point from which to create the bands. The most commonly used reference points are Open, High, Low, and Close, but you can also choose the commonly used candle averages: HL2, HLC3, HLCC4, OHLC4. Among these, there is also a less common "OC2", which represents the average of the candle body. Additionally, two parameters have been specifically created for this indicator: Open/Close and High/Low.
With the "Open/Close" parameter, the upper band is calculated from the higher value between Open and Close, while the lower one is calculated from the lower value between Open and Close. In the case of bullish candles, therefore, the Close value is taken as the starting point for the upper band and the Open value for the lower one; conversely, in bearish candles, the Open value is used for the upper band and the Close value for the lower band. This setting can be useful for precautionally generating broader bands when trading with candlesticks like hammers or inverted hammers.
The "High/Low" parameter calculates the upper band starting from the High and the lower band starting from the Low. Among all the available options, this one allows drawing the widest bands.
Other possible options to improve the drawing of ATR bands, aligning them with the price action, are:
• Doji Smoothing: When the current candle is a doji (having the same Open and Close price), the bands assume the values they had on the previous candle. This can be useful to avoid steep fluctuations of the bands themselves.
• Extend to High/Low: Extends the bands to the High or Low values when they exceed the value of the band.
• Round Last Cent: Expands the upper band by one cent if the price ends with x.x9, and the lower band if the price ends with x.x1. This function only works when the asset's tick is 0.01.
► Risk/Reward Advantage
The indicator optionally colors the ATR bands after setting a breakpoint, one or two risk/reward ratios, and a series of moving averages. This function allows you to know in advance whether entering a trade can provide an advantage over the risk. The band is colored when the ratio between the distance from the break point to the band and the distance from the break point to the first available moving average reaches at least the set ratio value. It is possible to set two colorings, one for a minimum risk/reward ratio and one for an optimal risk/reward ratio.
The break point can be chosen between High/Low (High in case of breakout, Low in case of breakdown) or Open/Close (on breakouts, Close with bullish candles or Open with bearish candles; on breakdowns, Close with bearish candles or Open with bullish candles).
It is possible to choose up to 10 moving averages of various types, including the VWAP with the Anchor Period (2).
Depending on the "Price to MA" setting, the bands can be individually or simultaneously colored.
By selecting "Single Direction," the risk/reward calculation is performed only when all moving averages are above or below the break point, resulting in only one band being colored at a time. For this reason, when the break point is in between the moving averages, the calculation is not executed. This setting can be useful for strategies involving price movement from a level towards a series of specific moving averages (for example, in reversals starting from a certain level towards the VWAP with possible partial take profits on some previous moving averages, or simply in trend following towards one or more moving averages).
Choosing "Both Directions" the risk/reward ratio is calculated based on the first available moving averages both above and below the price. This setting is useful for those who operate in range bound markets or simply take advantage of movements between moving averages.
█ NOTE
This script may not be suitable for scalping strategies that require immediate entries due to the inability to know the ATR of a candle in advance until its closure. Once the candle is closed, you should have time to place a stop or stop-limit order, so your strategy should not anticipate an immediate start with the next candle. Even more conveniently, if your strategy involves an entry on a pullback, you can place a limit order at the breakout level.
(1) www.tradingview.com
(2) For convenience, the code for the Anchor Period has been entirely copied from the VWAP code provided by TradingView.
Candle Counter [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator counts the number of confirmed candle scenarios on any given candlestick chart and displays the statistics in a table, which can be repositioned and resized at the user's discretion.
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
A green candle is one that closes with a high price equal to or above the price it opened.
A red candle is one that closes with a low price that is lower than the price it opened.
Upper Candle Trends
A higher high candle is one that closes with a higher high price than the high price of the preceding candle.
A lower high candle is one that closes with a lower high price than the high price of the preceding candle.
A double-top candle is one that closes with a high price that is equal to the high price of the preceding candle.
Lower Candle Trends
A higher low candle is one that closes with a higher low price than the low price of the preceding candle.
A lower low candle is one that closes with a lower low price than the low price of the preceding candle.
A double-bottom candle is one that closes with a low price that is equal to the low price of the preceding candle.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
Start Date
End Date
Position
Text Size
Show Sample Period
Show Plots
Table
The table is colour coded, consists of three columns and twenty-two rows. Blue cells denote all candle scenarios, green cells denote green candle scenarios and red cells denote red candle scenarios.
The candle scenarios are listed in the first column with their corresponding total counts to the right, in the second column. The last row in column one, row twenty-two, displays the sample period which can be adjusted or hidden via indicator settings.
Rows two and three in the third column of the table display the total green and red candles as percentages of total candles. Rows four to nine in column three, coloured blue, display the corresponding candle scenarios as percentages of total candles. Rows ten to fifteen in column three, coloured green, display the corresponding candle scenarios as percentages of total green candles. And lastly, rows sixteen to twenty-one in column three, coloured red, display the corresponding candle scenarios as percentages of total red candles.
Plots
I have added plots as a visual aid to the various candle scenarios listed in the table. Green up-arrows denote higher high candles when above bar and higher low candles when below bar. Red down-arrows denote lower high candles when above bar and lower low candles when below bar. Similarly, blue diamonds when above bar denote double-top candles and when below bar denote double-bottom candles. These plots can also be hidden via indicator settings.
█ HOW TO USE
This indicator is intended for research purposes and strategy development. I hope it will be useful in helping to gain a better understanding of the underlying dynamics at play on any given market and timeframe. It can, for example, give you an idea of any inherent biases such as a greater proportion of green candles to red. Or a greater proportion of higher low green candles to lower low green candles. Such information can be very useful when conducting top down analysis across multiple timeframes, or considering trailing stop loss methods.
What you do with these statistics and how far you decide to take your research is entirely up to you, the possibilities are endless.
This is just the first and most basic in a series of indicators that can be used to study objective price action scenarios and develop a systematic approach to trading.
█ LIMITATIONS
Some higher timeframe candles on tickers with larger lookbacks such as the DXY, do not actually contain all the open, high, low and close (OHLC) data at the beginning of the chart. Instead, they use the close price for open, high and low prices. So, while we can determine whether the close price is higher or lower than the preceding close price, there is no way of knowing what actually happened intra-bar for these candles. And by default candles that close at the same price as the open price, will be counted as green. You can avoid this problem by utilising the sample period filter.
The green and red candle calculations are based solely on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with. Alternatively, you can replace the scenarios with your own logic to account for the gap anomalies, if you are feeling up to the challenge.
It is also worth noting that the sample size will be limited to your Trading View subscription plan. Premium users get 20,000 candles worth of data, pro+ and pro users get 10,000, and basic users get 5,000. If upgrading is currently not an option, you can always keep a rolling tally of the statistics in an excel spreadsheet or something of the like.
Dynamic Zone Range on OMA [Loxx]Dynamic Zone Range on OMA is an One More Moving Average oscillator with Dynamic Zones.
What is the One More Moving Average (OMA)?
The usual story goes something like this : which is the best moving average? Everyone that ever started to do any kind of technical analysis was pulled into this "game". Comparing, testing, looking for new ones, testing ...
The idea of this one is simple: it should not be itself, but it should be a kind of a chameleon - it should "imitate" as much other moving averages as it can. So the need for zillion different moving averages would diminish. And it should have some extra, of course:
The extras:
it has to be smooth
it has to be able to "change speed" without length change
it has to be able to adapt or not (since it has to "imitate" the non-adaptive as well as the adaptive ones)
The steps:
Smoothing - compared are the simple moving average (that is the basis and the first step of this indicator - a smoothed simple moving average with as little lag added as it is possible and as close to the original as it is possible) Speed 1 and non-adaptive are the reference for this basic setup.
Speed changing - same chart only added one more average with "speeds" 2 and 3 (for comparison purposes only here)
Finally - adapting : same chart with SMA compared to one more average with speed 1 but adaptive (so this parameters would make it a "smoothed adaptive simple average") Adapting part is a modified Kaufman adapting way and this part (the adapting part) may be a subject for changes in the future (it is giving satisfactory results, but if or when I find a better way, it will be implemented here)
Some comparisons for different speed settings (all the comparisons are without adaptive turned on, and are approximate. Approximation comes from a fact that it is impossible to get exactly the same values from only one way of calculation, and frankly, I even did not try to get those same values).
speed 0.5 - T3 (0.618 Tilson)
speed 2.5 - T3 (0.618 Fulks/Matulich)
speed 1 - SMA , harmonic mean
speed 2 - LWMA
speed 7 - very similar to Hull and TEMA
speed 8 - very similar to LSMA and Linear regression value
Parameters:
Length - length (period) for averaging
Source - price to use for averaging
Speed - desired speed (i limited to -1.5 on the lower side but it even does not need that limit - some interesting results with speeds that are less than 0 can be achieved)
Adaptive - does it adapt or not
Variety Moving Averages w/ Dynamic Zones contains 33 source types and 35+ moving averages with double dynamic zones levels.
What are Dynamic Zones?
As explained in "Stocks & Commodities V15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph .D., and David Stendahl"
Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’ s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator.
One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading lev- els. However, these oscillator- driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem.
Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system.
An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every value of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader.
To better understand dynamic zones, let's first describe them mathematically and then explain their use. The dynamic zones definition:
Find V such that:
For dynamic zone buy: P{X <= V}=P1
For dynamic zone sell: P{X >= V}=P2
where P1 and P2 are the probabilities set by the trader, X is the value of the indicator for the selected period and V represents the value of the dynamic zone.
The probability input P1 and P2 can be adjusted by the trader to encompass as much or as little data as the trader would like. The smaller the probability, the fewer data values above and below the dynamic zones. This translates into a wider range between the buy and sell zones. If a 10% probability is used for P1 and P2, only those data values that make up the top 10% and bottom 10% for an indicator are used in the construction of the zones. Of the values, 80% will fall between the two extreme levels. Because dynamic zone levels are penetrated so infrequently, when this happens, traders know that the market has truly moved into overbought or oversold territory.
Calculating the Dynamic Zones
The algorithm for the dynamic zones is a series of steps. First, decide the value of the lookback period t. Next, decide the value of the probability Pbuy for buy zone and value of the probability Psell for the sell zone.
For i=1, to the last lookback period, build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. Then find the value Vi1 such that the probability of the price less than or equal to Vi1 during the lookback period i is equal to Pbuy. Find the value Vi2 such that the probability of the price greater or equal to Vi2 during the lookback period i is equal to Psell. The sequence of Vi1 for all periods gives the buy zone. The sequence of Vi2 for all periods gives the sell zone.
In the algorithm description, we have: Build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. The distribution here is empirical namely, how many times a given value of x appeared during the lookback period. The problem is to find such x that the probability of a price being greater or equal to x will be equal to a probability selected by the user. Probability is the area under the distribution curve. The task is to find such value of x that the area under the distribution curve to the right of x will be equal to the probability selected by the user. That x is the dynamic zone.
Included
4 signal types
Bar coloring
Alerts
Channels fill
Dekidaka-Ashi - Candles And Volume Teaming Up (Again)The introduction of candlestick methods for market price data visualization might be one of the most important events in the history of technical analysis, as it totally changed the way to see a trading chart. Candlestick charts are extremely efficient, as they allow the trader to visualize the opening, high, low and closing price (OHLC) each at the same time, something impossible with a traditional line chart. Candlesticks are also cleaner than bars charts and make a more efficient use of space. Japanese peoples are always better than everyone at an incredible amount of stuff, look at what they made, the candlesticks/renko/kagi/heikin-ashi charts, the Ichimoku, manga, ecchi...
However classical candlesticks only include historical market price data, and won't include other type of data such as volume, which is considered by many investors a key information toward effective financial forecasting as volume is an indicator of trading activity. In order to tackle to this problem solutions where proposed, the most common one being to adapt the width of the candle based on the amount of volume, this method is the most commonly accepted one when it comes to visualizing both volume and OHLC data using candlesticks.
Now why proposing an additional tool for volume data visualization ? Because the classical width approach don't provide usable data regarding volume (as the width is directly related to the volume data). Therefore a new trading tool based on candlesticks that allow the trader to gain access to information about the volume is proposed. The approach is based on rescaling the volume directly to the price without the direct use of user settings. We will also see that this tool allow to create support and resistances as well as providing signals based on a breakout methodology.
Dekidaka-Ashi - Kakatte Koi Yo!
"Dekidaka" (出来高) mean "Volume" in a financial context, while "Ashi" (足) mean "leg" or "bar". In general methods based on candlesticks will have "Ashi" in their name.
Now that the name of the indicator has been explained lets see how it works, the indicator should be overlayed directly to a candlestick chart. The proposed method don't alter the shape of the candlesticks and allow to visualize any information given by the candles. As you can see on the figure below the candle body of the proposed tool only return the border of the candle, this allow to show the high/low wick of the candle.
The body size of the candle is based on two things : the absolute close/open difference, and the volume, if the absolute close/open difference is high and the volume is high then the body of the candle will be clearly visible, if the volume is high but the absolute close/open difference is low, then the body will be less visible. This approach is used because of the rescaling method used, the volume is divided by the sum between the current volume value and the precedent volume value, this rescale the volume in a (0,1) range, this result is multiplied by the absolute close/open difference and added/subtracted to the high/low price. The original approach was based on normalization using the rolling maximum, but this approach would have led to repainting.
You have access to certain settings that can help you obtain a better visualization, the first one being the body size setting, with higher values increasing the body amplitude.
In green body with size 2, in red with size 1. The smooth parameter will smooth the volume data before being used, this allow to create more visible bodies.
Here smooth = 100.
Making Bands From The Dekidaka-Ashi
This tool is made so it output two rescaled volume values, with the highest value being denoted as "Dekidaka-high" and the lowest one as "Dekidaka-low". In order to get bands we must use two moving averages, one using the Dekidaka-high as input and the other one using Dekidaka-low, the body size parameter should be fairly high, therefore i will hide the tool as it could cause trouble visualizing the bands.
Bands with both MA's of period 20 and the body size equal to 20. Larger periods of the MA's will require a larger amount of body size.
Breakout Signals
There is a wide variety of signals that can be made from candles, ones i personally like comes from the HA candles. The proposed tool is no exception and can produce a wide variety of signals. The signals generated are basic ones based on a breakout methodology, here is each signal with their associated label :
Strong Bullish signal "⇈" : The high price cross the Dekidaka-high and the closing price is greater than the opening price
Strong Bearish signal "⇊" : The low price cross the Dekidaka-low and the closing price is lower than the opening price
Weak Bullish signal "↑" : The high price cross the Dekidaka-high and the closing price is lower than the opening price
Weak Bearish signal "↓" : The low price cross the Dekidaka-low and the closing price is greater than the opening price
Uncertain "↕" : The high price cross the Dekidaka-high and the low price cross the the Dekidaka-low
In order to see the signals on the chart check the "Show signals" option. Note that such signals are not based on an advanced study, and even if they are based on a breakout methodology we can see that volatile movement rarely produce signals, therefore signals mostly occur during low volume/volatility periods, which isn't necessarily a great thing.
Conclusion
A trading tool based on candlesticks that aim to include volume information has been presented and a brief methodology has been introduced. A study of the signals generated is required, however i'am not confident at all on their accuracy, i could work on that in the future. We have also seen how to make bands from the tool.
Candlesticks remain a beautiful charting technique that can provide an enormous amount of information to the trader, and even if the accuracy of patterns based on candlesticks is subject to debates, we can all agree that candlesticks will remain the most widely used type of financial chart.
On a side note i mostly use a dark color for a bullish candle, and a light gray for a bearish candle, with the border color being of the same color as the bullish candle. This is in my opinion the best setup for a candlestick chart, as candles using the traditional green/red can kill the eyes and because this setup allow to apply a wide variety of colors to the plot of overlayed indicators without the fear of causing conflict with the candles color.
Thanks for reading ! :3 Nya
A Word
This morning i received some hateful messages on twitter, the users behind them certainly coming from tradingview, so lets be clear, i know i'am not the most liked person in this community, i know that perfectly, but no one merit to be receive hateful messages. I'am not responsible for the losses of peoples using my indicators, nor is tradingview, using technical indicators does not guarantee long term returns, your ability to be profitable will mostly be based on the quality and quantity of knowledge you have.
FX Meter ScriptA while ago, we wrote* about the usefulness of using a currency strength meter and how you can build one from scratch.
See here: www.globalprime.com.au
Now we've taken this little project to the next level by visually spotting, via color signals in a dashboard and alerts, when a potential new trend might be developing in a currency pair.
*It's critical that you first read that article before you jump into reading this one or else you could get easily lost.
The script gives a trigger every time two currencies show diverging flows via opposing moving average slopes.
The signals originate from a first chart where currency indexes can be found, calculated through a formula, in various thin lines. Then a moving average to each currency index is applied so that it can smooth out the lines (what I call Micro moving averages – thicker lines -) and is usually a 4-5 period MA, with the key input to pay attention being the slope. One can perform their own tests on what works best for their particular trading style. The smaller the period in the moving average, the more responsive to changes in biases but the downside is that you will get a greater number of false moves. In the windows below the 1st chart, the stochRSI is calculated for each currency index (these values originate from the currency index and not from the applied MA). By default, a 25-period is applied to both RSI and Stoch length.
A 2nd chart that looks at the same logic is also accounted for to build this script, but instead of checking the micro trend, it applies a 25MA to the currency index, so it looks at what I call the slope of the macro trend. In this case, by default, a 125-period is applied to both RSI and Stoch length.
We had in mind to transition from just eye-balling and monitoring these charts manually to build a script via Tradingview that makes calculations real time (whenever the change in the moving average slope first occurs, and not when the bar/line closes), so that one can decide whether or not its a signal worth trading as part of a new trend emerging. Note, this is not so much a signal-triggering indicator but rather a tool to constantly be on the lookout monitoring what currencies might start to develop trends.
The actual script consists of a dashboard with different colored rectangles being triggered depending on the quality of the signal.
We will be happy to discuss it further with anyone who is interested in exploiting all the benefits that it can offer.
The way you add the script into your Tradingview chart is by first copy everything in the txt file. Then go to Pine editor (bottom middle-left) in your tradingview chart, delete everything there, then Paste the script. Then click Add to Chart (top right of the pine editor).
Note, you should add via the Anchored Text function the following list of pairs below, in this alphabetic order, on the right-hand side of the chart, as demonstrated above:
AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
CADJPY
EURAUD
EURJPY
EURCAD
EURNZD
EURGBP
EURUSD
GBPAUD
GBPCAD
GBPJPY
GBPNZD
GBPUSD
NZDCAD
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDJPY
There are only 2 rules for the script to trigger a signal (see below). However, as I will elaborate further down, there are up to 6 different colors we can grade a signal
RULE 1 -> 2 moving averages, which are a calculation applied to a currency index as shown in the micro trend above, exhibit slopes in the opposite direction.
RULE 2 -> The Stoch RSI cannot be in overbought conditions if the slope of the moving average points higher or in oversold if the slope points lower.
Note 1: Even if the chart is a 60m timeframe by default (can be changed to any timeframe(, one gets the signal the moment the change of slope is identified, which means the indicator monitors changes in price tick by tick, and not on a candle close, otherwise one would get the trigger too late.
As an example of the highest-graded signal triggering (in green), a few hours ago we were given the visual cue that GBPCAD was experiencing a change of behavior. If we crosscheck the time the green-colored trigger was given with the actual GBPCAD chart, this is what we can observe. The pair is 30p higher since the trigger.
HOW TO SETUP ALERTS
One can easily setup a notification window each time the above rules are met, for example, if the EUR MA slope changes to bullish, and the AUD MA slope changes to bearish, and none of the 2 currency index values corresponding to these 2 moving averages (EUR and AUD) show a stoch RSI in overbought (above 80) in the case of the EUR, or oversold (below 20) in the case of the AUD, then the notification pop up would show a customized line: Long EURAUD
Note 1: Recording the slope of the macro moving average, which is usually a 25period MA applied to the currency index, is not included as part of the rules to trigger a signal, but it is taken into account to grade the quality of each signal.
Note 2: I recommend each signal to be triggered once or if you prefer, simply monitor the chart visually on the change of colors via the dashboard. The calculation resets and can appear again the moment that the slope changes to the opposite direction, so it’s a very dynamic indicator that will alert you the second a pair of currencies starts trending.
Note 3: When the signal is triggered, the indicator draws a colored rectangle. Each signal notification should be colored based on the following logic below.
LOGIC TO QUALIFY SIGNALS
-> Any long micro position with Macro MA in full agreement (ie/ Long EURAUD, Macro EUR up, Macro AUD down) is highlighted with green color
-> Any long micro position with macro moving averages in partial agreement (for example Long EURAUD, Macro EUR up AUD up) is highlighted with blue color
-> Any long micro position with macro moving averages in full disagreement (for example Long EURAUD, Macro EUR down AUD up) is highlighted with magenta color
-> Any short micro position with macro moving averages in full agreement (for example Short EURAUD, Macro EUR down AUD up) is highlighted with red color
-> Any short micro position with macro moving averages in partial agreement (for example Short EURAUD, Macro EUR up AUD up) is highlighted with orange color
-> Any short micro position with macro moving averages in full disagreement (for example Short EURAUD, Macro EUR up AUD down) is highlighted with purple color
PARAMETERS IN THE SCRIPT SETTINGS
Overbought/oversold: One can modify the stoch RSI level from which the indicator considers the value to be in overbought or oversold conditions. As a rule of thumb, consider 20/30 for oversold and 70/80 for oversold.
Slopes micro/macro MAs: One can edit the slope of the micro MA period (rule of thumb 4-5) and the macro MA (by default 25).
Value StochRSI: The default inputs are K 3, D 3, RSI Length 25, Stoch Length 25 for the micro and 125 period for the macro.
Change colors: One can edit the assigned colors in the signals dashboard.
Timeframe applied: The indicator has the flexibility to be applied to any timeframe, not just the 60m by default. Simply change the timeframe temporality.
CURRENCY INDEXES FORMULAS
It is the responsibility of the user to keep the values of the indexes updated. Find a recent sample below, as per values in early April. What this means is that at least once a week, in order to not let the values outdated, you should update the script with the latest valuations in the denominator.
NZD INDEX -> FX_IDC:NZDAUD/0.96+FX:NZDJPY/75.81+FX:NZDUSD/0.68+FX_IDC:NZDEUR/0.6+FX_IDC:NZDGBP/0.52+FX:NZDCHF/0.69+FX:NZDCAD/0.9
EUR INDEX -> FX:EURUSD/1.13+FX:EURJPY/125.5+FX:EURGBP/0.87+FX:EURCHF/1.135+FX:EURCAD/1.49+FX:EURNZD/1.655+FX:EURAUD/1.59
JPY INDEX -> 1/(FX:USDJPY/110.5+FX:EURJPY/125.5+FX:AUDJPY/79+FX:NZDJPY/75.5+FX:GBPJPY/144.5+FX:CHFJPY/110.5+FX:CADJPY/84)
USD INDEX -> FX_IDC:USDEUR/0.88+FX:USDJPY/110.5+FX_IDC:USDGBP/0.77+FX:USDCHF+FX:USDCAD/1.315+FX_IDC:USDNZD/1.46+FX_IDC:USDAUD/1.4
CAD INDEX-> FX_IDC:CADAUD/1.07+FX_IDC:CADNZD/1.11+FX:CADJPY/84.27+FX_IDC:CADUSD/0.76+FX_IDC:CADEUR/0.67+FX:CADCHF/0.76+FX_IDC:CADGBP/0.58
GBP INDEX -> FX:GBPAUD/1.83+FX:GBPNZD/1.91+FX:GBPJPY/144.5+FX_IDC:GBPEUR/1.15+FX:GBPCHF/1.31+FX:GBPUSD/1.31+FX:GBPCAD/1.71
Remember, I have provided a manual on how to build a currency strength meter. That’s what you will need to do first if you want to obtain the actual currency indexes other than just the indicator, which is just the visual cue to get you alerted when the slopes turn.
Once you’ve created your indexes via tradingview, you then apply a moving average to each index. Then apply the stochrsi 25 period to each index. For the macro trend, I make the same calculations, but the period of the MA is 25 instead of 4, while the stoch rsi is 125 periods vs 25 periods.
FINAL NOTE
This is a tool that should be interpreted as visual assistance, via the dashboard, to get that first cue when opposing micro slopes via the FX meter occur. However, you still need to check the technical context of the pair (levels marked, proj reached, etc.) but that first cue is a major time saver to constantly spot what's trending in FX. The permutations u can play with, as part of this script, are significant. You can tweak the timeframes you use, the periods of the moving averages, etc. I find the micro and macro trend combos when either a green or red signals is triggered the most reliable, with positions to be exploited via 15m and hourly under the right technical context.
Great Expectations [LucF]Great Expectations helps traders answer the question: What is possible? It is a powerful question, yet exploration of the unknown always entails risk. A more complete set of questions better suited to traders could be:
What opportunity exists from any given point on a chart?
What portion of this opportunity can be realistically captured?
What risk will be incurred in trying to do so, and how long will it take?
Great Expectations is the result of an exploration of these questions. It is a trade simulator that generates visual and quantitative information to help strategy modelers visually identify and analyse areas of optimal expectation on charts, whether they are designing automated or discretionary strategies.
WARNING: Great Expectations is NOT an indicator that helps determine the current state of a market. It works by looking at points in the past from which the future is already known. It uses one definition of repainting extensively (i.e. it goes back in the past to print information that could not have been know at the time). Repainting understood that way is in fact almost all the indicator does! —albeit for what I hope is a noble cause. The indicator is of no use whatsoever in analyzing markets in real-time. If you do not understand what it does, please stay away!
This is an indicator—not a strategy that uses TradingView’s backtesting engine. It works by simulating trades, not unlike a backtest, but with the crucial difference that it assumes a trade (either long or short) is entered on all bars in the historic sample. It walks forward from each bar and determines possible outcomes, gathering individual trade statistics that in turn generate precious global statistics from all outcomes tested on the chart.
Great Expectations provides numbers summarizing trade results on all simulations run from the chart. Those numbers cannot be compared to backtest-produced numbers since all non-filtered bars are examined, even if an entry was taken on the bar immediately preceding the current one, which never happens in a backtest. This peculiarity does NOT invalidate Great Expectations calculations; it just entails that results be considered under a different light. Provided they are evaluated within the indicator’s context, they can be useful—sometimes even more than backtesting results, e.g. in evaluating the impact of parameter-fitting or variations in entry, exit or filtering strats.
Traders and strategy modelers are creatures of hope often suffering from blurred vision; my hope is that Great Expectations will help them appraise the validity of their setup and strat intuitions in a realistic fashion, preventing confirmation bias from obstructing perspective—and great expectations from turning into financial great deceptions.
USE CASES
You’ve identified what looks like a promising setup on other indicators. You load Great Expectations on the chart and evaluate if its high-expectation areas match locations where your setup’s conditions occur. Unless today is your lucky day, chances are the indicator will help you realize your setup is not as promising as you had hoped.
You want to get a rough estimate of the optimal trade duration for a chart and you don’t mind using the entry and exit strategies provided with the indicator. You use the trade length readouts of the indicator.
You’re experimenting with a new stop strategy and want to know how long it will keep you in trades, on average. You integrate your stop strategy in the indicator’s code and look at the average trade length it produces and the TST ratio to evaluate its performance.
You have put together your own entry and exit criteria and are looking for a filter that will help you improve backtesting results. You visually ascertain the suitability of your filter by looking at its results on the charts with great Expectations, to see if your filter is choosing its areas correctly.
You have a strategy that shows backtested trades on your chart. Great Expectations can help you evaluate how well your strategy is benefitting from high-opportunity areas while avoiding poor expectation spots.
You want more complete statistics on your set of strategies than what backtesting will provide. You use Great Expectations, knowing that it tests all bars in the sample that correspond to your criteria, as opposed to backtesting results which are limited to a subset of all possible entries.
You want to fool your friends into thinking you’ve designed the holy grail of indicators, something that identifies optimal opportunities on any chart; you show them the P&L cloud.
FEATURES
For one trade
At any given point on the chart, assuming a trade is entered there, Great Expectations shows you information specific to that trade simulation both on the chart and in the Data Window.
The chart can display:
the P & L Cloud which shows whether the trade ended profitably or not, and by how much,
the Opportunity & Risk Cloud which the maximum opportunity and risk the simulation encountered. When superimposed over the P & L cloud, you will see what I call the managed opportunity and risk, i.e the portion of maximum opportunity that was captured and the portion of the maximum risk that was incurred,
the target and if it was reached,
a background that uses a gradient to show different levels of trade length, P&L or how frequently the target was reached during simulation.
The Data Window displays more than 40 values on individual trades and global results. For any given trade you will know:
Entry/Exit levels, including slippage impact,
It’s outcome and duration,
P/L achieved,
The fraction of the maximum opportunity/risk managed by the trade.
For all trades
After going through all the possible trades on the chart, the indicator will provide you with a rare view of all outcomes expressed with the P&L cloud, which allows us to instantly see the most/least profitable areas of a chart using trade data as support, while also showing its relationship with the opportunity/risk encountered during the simulation. The difference between the two clouds is the managed opportunity and risk.
The Data Window will present you with numbers which we will go through later. Some of them are: average stop size, P/L, win rate, % opportunity managed, trade lengths for different types of trade outcomes and the TST (Target:Stop Travel) ratio.
Let’s see Great Expectations in action… and remember to open your Data Window!
INPUTS
Trade direction : You must first choose if you wish to look at long or short trades. Because of the way the indicator works and the amount of visual information on the chart, it is only practical to look at one type of trades at a time. The default is Longs.
Maximum trade Length (MaxL) : This is the maximum walk forward distance the simulator will go in analyzing outcomes from any given point in the past. It also determines the size of the dead zone among the chart’s last bars. A red background line identifies the beginning of the dead zone for which not enough bars have elapsed to analyze outcomes for the maximum trade length defined. If an ATR-based entry stop is used, that length is added to the wait time before beginning simulations, so that the first entry starts with a clean ATR value. On a sample of around 16000 bars, my tests show that the indicator runs into server errors at lengths of around 290, i.e. having completed ~4,6M simulation loop iterations. That is way too high a length anyways; 100 will usually be amply enough to ring out all the possibilities out of a simulation, and on shorter time frames, 30 can be enough. While making it unduly small will prevent simulations of expressing the market’s potential, the less you use, the faster the indicator will run. The default is 40.
Unrealized P&L base at End of Trade (EOT) : When a simulation ends and the trade is still open, we calculate unrealized P&L from an exit order executed from either the last in-trade stop on the previous bar, or the close of the last bar. You can readily see the impact of this selection on the chart, with the P&L cloud. The default is on the close.
Display : The check box besides the title does nothing.
Show target : Shows a green line displaying the trade’s target expressed as a multiple of X, i.e. the amplitude of the entry stop. I call this value “X” and use it as a unit to express profit and loss on a trade (some call it “R”). The line is highlighted for trades where the close reached the target during the trade, whether the trade ended in profit or loss. This is also where you specify the multiple of X you wish to use in calculating targets. The multiple is used even if targets are not displayed.
Show P&L Cloud : The cloud allows traders to see right away the profitable areas of the chart. The only line printed with the cloud is the “end of trade line” (EOT). The EOT line is the only way one can see the level where a trade ended on the chart (in the Data Window you can see it as the “Exit Fill” value). The EOT level for the trade determines if the trade ended in a profit or a loss. Its value represents one of the following:
- fill from order executed at close of bar where stop is breached during trade (which produces “Realized P/L”),
- simulation of a fill pseudo-fill at the user-defined EOT level (last close or stop level) if the trade runs its course through MaxL bars without getting stopped (producing Unrealized P/L).
The EOT line and the cloud fill print in green when the trade’s outcome is profitable and in red when it is not. If the trade was closed after breaching the stop, the line appears brighter.
Show Opportunity&Risk Cloud : Displays the maximum opportunity/risk that was present during the trade, i.e. the maximum and minimum prices reached.
Background Color Scheme : Allows you to choose between 3 different color schemes for the background gradients, to accommodate different types of chart background/candles. Select “None” if you don’t want a background.
Background source : Determines what value will be used to generate the different intensities of the gradient. You can choose trade length (brighter is shorter), Trade P&L (brighter is higher) or the number of times the target was reached during simulation (brighter is higher). The default is Trade Length.
Entry strat : The check box besides the title does nothing. The default strat is All bars, meaning a trade will be simulated from all bars not excluded by the filters where a MaxL bars future exists. For fun, I’ve included a pseudo-random entry strat (an indirect way of changing the seed is to vary the starting date of the simulation).
Show Filter State : Displays areas where the combination of filters you have selected are allowing entries. Filtering occurs as per your selection(s), whether the state is displayed or not. The effect of multiple selections is additive. The filters are:
1. Bar direction: Longs will only be entered if close>open and vice versa.
2. Rising Volume: Applies to both long and shorts.
3. Rising/falling MA of the length you choose over the number of bars you choose.
4. Custom indicator: You can feed your own filtering signal through this from another indicator. It must produce a signal of 1 to allow long entries and 0 to allow shorts.
Show Entry Stops :
1. Multiple of user-defined length ATR.
2. Fixed percentage.
3. Fixed value.
All entry stops are calculated using the entry fill price as a reference. The fill price is calculated from the current bar’s open, to which slippage is added if configured. This simulates the case where the strategy issued the entry signal on the previous bar for it to be executed at the next bar’s open.
The entry stop remains active until the in-trade stop becomes the more aggressive of the two stops. From then on, the entry stop will be ignored, unless a bar close breaches the in-trade stop, in which case the stop will be reset with a new entry stop and the process repeats.
Show In-trade stops : Displays in bright red the selected in-trade stop (be sure to read the note in this section about them).
1. ATR multiple: added/subtracted from the average of the two previous bars minimum/maximum of open/close.
2. A trailing stop with a deviation expressed as a multiple of entry stop (X).
3. A fixed percentage trailing stop.
Trailing stops deviations are measured from the highest/lowest high/low reached during the trade.
Note: There is a twist with the in-trade stops. It’s that for any given bar, its in-trade stop can hold multiple values, as each successive pass of the advancing simulation loops goes over it from a different entry points. What is printed is the stop from the loop that ended on that bar, which may have nothing to do with other instances of the trade’s in-trade stop for the same bar when visited from other starting points in previous simulations. There is just no practical way to print all stop values that were used for any given bar. While the printed entry stops are the actual ones used on each bar, the in-trade stops shown are merely the last instance used among many.
Include Slippage : if checked, slippage will be added/subtracted from order price to yield the fill price. Slippage is in percentage. If you choose to include slippage in the simulations, remember to adjust it by considering the liquidity of the markets and the time frame you’ll be analyzing.
Include Fees : if checked, fees will be subtracted/added to both realized an unrealized trade profits/losses. Fees are in percentage. The default fees work well for crypto markets but will need adjusting for others—especially in Forex. Remember to modify them accordingly as they can have a major impact on results. Both fees and slippage are included to remind us of their importance, even if the global numbers produced by the indicator are not representative of a real trading scenario composed of sequential trades.
Date Range filtering : the usual. Just note that the checkbox has to be selected for date filtering to activate.
DATA WINDOW
Most of the information produced by this indicator is made available in the Data Window, which you bring up by using the icon below the Watchlist and Alerts buttons at the right of the TV UI. Here’s what’s there.
Some of the information presented in the Data Window is standard trade data; other values are not so standard; e. g. the notions of managed opportunity and risk and Target:Stop Travel ratio. The interplay between all the values provided by Great Expectations is inherently complex, even for a static set of entry/filter/exit strats. During the constant updating which the habitual process of progressive refinement in building strategies that is the lot of strategy modelers entails, another level of complexity is no doubt added to the analysis of this indicator’s values. While I don’t want to sound like Wolfram presenting A New Kind of Science , I do believe that if you are a serious strategy modeler and spend the time required to get used to using all the information this indicator makes available, you may find it useful.
Trade Information
Entry Order : This is the open of the bar where simulation starts. We suppose that an entry signal was generated at the previous bar.
Entry Fill (including slip.) : The actual entry price, including slippage. This is the base price from which other values will be calculated.
Exit Order : When a stop is breached, an exit order is executed from the close of the bar that breached the stop. While there is no “In-trade stop” value included in the Data Window (other than the End of trade Stop previously discussed), this “Exit Order” value is how we can know the level where the trade was stopped during the simulation. The “Trade Length” value will then show the bar where the stop was breached.
Exit Fill (including slip.) : When the exit order is simulated, slippage is added to the order level to create the fill.
Chart: Target : This is the target calculated at the beginning of the simulation. This value also appear on the chart in teal. It is controlled by the multiple of X defined under the “Show Target” checkbox in the Inputs.
Chart: Entry Stop : This value also appears on the chart (the red dots under points where a trade was simulated). Its value is controlled by the Entry Strat chosen in the Inputs.
X (% Fill, including Fees) and X (currency) : This is the stop’s amplitude (Entry Fill – Entry Stop) + Fees. It represents the risk incurred upon entry and will be used to express P&L. We will show R expressed in both a percentage of the Entry Fill level (this value), and currency (the next value). This value represents the risk in the risk:reward ratio and is considered to be a unit of 1 so that RR can be expressed as a single value (i.e. “2” actually meaning “1:2”).
Trade Length : If trade was stopped, it’s the number of bars elapsed until then. The trade is then considered “Closed”. If the trade ends without being stopped (there is no profit-taking strat implemented, so the stop is the only exit strat), then the trade is “Open”, the length is MaxL and it will show in orange. Otherwise the value will print in green/red to reflect if the trade is winning/losing.
P&L (X) : The P&L of the trade, expressed as a multiple of X, which takes into account fees paid at entry and exit. Given our default target setting at 2 units of “X”, a trade that closes at its target will have produced a P&L of +2.0, i.e. twice the value of X (not counting fees paid at exit ). A trade that gets stopped late 50% further that the entry stop’s level will produce a P&L of -1.5X.
P&L (currency, including Fees) : same value as above, but expressed in currency.
Target first reached at bar : If price closed above the target during the trade (even if it occurs after the trade was stopped), this will show when. This value will be used in calculating our TST ratio.
Times Stop/Target reached in sim. : Includes all occurrences during the complete simulation loop.
Opportunity (X) : The highest/lowest price reached during a simulation, i.e. the maximum opportunity encountered, whether the trade was previously stopped or not, expressed as a multiple of X.
Risk (X) : The lowest/highest price reached during a simulation, i.e. the maximum risk encountered, whether the trade was previously stopped or not, expressed as a multiple of X.
Risk:Opportunity : The greater this ratio, the greater Opportunity is, compared to Risk.
Managed Opportunity (%) : The portion of Opportunity that was captured by the highest/low stop position, even if it occurred after a previous stop closed the trade.
Managed Risk (%) : The portion of risk that was protected by the lowest/highest stop position, even if it occurred after a previous stop closed the trade. When this value is greater than 100%, it means the trade’s stop is protecting more than the maximum risk, which is frequent. You will, however, never see close to those values for the Managed Opportunity value, since the stop would have to be higher than the Maximum opportunity. It is much easier to alleviate the risk than it is to lock in profits.
Managed Risk:Opportunity : The ratio of the two preceding values.
Managed Opp. vs. Risk : The Managed Opportunity minus the Managed Risk. When it is negative, which is most often is, it means your strat is protecting a greater portion of the risk than it captures opportunity.
Global Numbers
Win Rate(%) : Percentage of winning trades over all entries. Open trades are considered winning if their last stop/close (as per user selection) locks in profits.
Avg X%, Avg X (currency) : Averages of previously described values:.
Avg Profitability/Trade (APPT) : This measures expectation using: Average Profitability Per Trade = (Probability of Win × Average Win) − (Probability of Loss × Average Loss) . It quantifies the average expectation/trade, which RR alone can’t do, as the probabilities of each outcome (win/lose) must also be used to calculate expectancy. The APPT combine the RR with the win rate to yield the true expectancy of a strategy. In my usual way of expressing risk with X, APPT is the equivalent of the average P&L per trade expressed in X. An APPT of -1.5 means that we lose on average 1.5X/trade.
Equity (X), Equity (currency) : The cumulative result of all trade outcomes, expressed as a multiple of X. Multiplied by the Average X in currency, this yields the Equity in currency.
Risk:Opportunity, Managed Risk:Opportunity, Managed Opp. vs. Risk : The global values of the ones previously described.
Avg Trade Length (TL) : One of the most important values derived by going through all the simulations. Again, it is composed of either the length of stopped trades, or MaxL when the trade isn’t stopped (open). This value can help systems modelers shape the characteristics of the components they use to build their strategies.
Avg Closed Win TL and Avg Closed Lose TL : The average lengths of winning/losing trades that were stopped.
Target reached? Avg bars to Stop and Target reached? Avg bars to Target : For the trades where the target was reached at some point in the simulation, the number of bars to the first point where the stop was breached and where the target was reached, respectively. These two values are used to calculate the next value.
TST (Target:Stop Travel Ratio) : This tracks the ratio between the two preceding values (Bars to first stop/Bars to first target), but only for trades where the target was reached somewhere in the loop. A ratio of 2 means targets are reached twice as fast as stops.
The next values of this section are counts or percentages and are self-explanatory.
Chart Plots
Contains chart plots of values already describes.
NOTES
Optimization/Overfitting: There is a fine line between optimizing and overfitting. Tools like this indicator can lead unsuspecting modelers down a path of overfitting that often turns strategies into over-specialized beasts that do not perform elegantly when confronted to the real-world. Proven testing strategies like walk forward analysis will go a long way in helping modelers alleviate this risk.
Input tuning: Because the results generated by the indicator will vary with the parameters used in the active entry, filtering and exit strats, it’s important to realize that although it may be fun at first, just slapping the default settings on a chart and time frame will not yield optimal nor reliable results. While using ATR as often as possible (as I do in this indicator) is a good way to make strat parametrization adaptable, it is not a foolproof solution.
There is no data for the last MaxL bars of the chart, since not enough trade future has elapsed to run a simulation from MaxL bars back.
Modifying the code: I have tried to structure the code modularly, even if that entails a larger code base, so that you can adapt it to your needs. I’ve included a few token components in each of the placeholders designed for entry strategies, filters, entry stops and in-trade stops. This will hopefully make it easier to add your own. In the same spirit, I have also commented liberally.
You will find in the code many instances of standard trade management tasks that can be lifted to code TV strategies where, as I do in mine, you manage everything yourself and don’t rely on built-in Pine strategy functions to act on your trades.
Enjoy!
THANKS
To @scarf who showed me how plotchar() could be used to plot values without ruining scale.
To @glaz for the suggestion to include a Chandelier stop strat; I will.
To @simpelyfe for the idea of using an indicator input for the filters (if some day TV lets us use more than one, it will be useful in other modules of the indicator).
To @RicardoSantos for the random generator used in the random entry strat.
To all scripters publishing open source on TradingView; their code is the best way to learn.
To my trading buddies Irving and Bruno; who showed me way back how pro traders get it done.
Screener based on Profitunity strategy for multiple timeframes
Screener based on Profitunity strategy by Bill Williams for multiple timeframes (max 5, including chart timeframe) and customizable symbol list. The screener analyzes the Alligator and Awesome Oscillator indicators, Divergent bars and high volume bars.
The maximum allowed number of requests (symbols and timeframes) is limited to 40 requests, for example, for 10 symbols by 4 requests of different timeframes. Therefore, the indicator automatically limits the number of displayed symbols depending on the number of timeframes for each symbol, if there are more symbols than are displayed in the screener table, then the ordinal numbers are displayed to the left of the symbols, in this case you can display the next group of symbols by increasing the value by 1 in the "Show tickers from" field, if the "Group" field is enabled, or specify the symbol number by 1 more than the last symbol in the screener table. 👀 When timeframe filtering is applied, the screener table displays only the columns of those timeframes for which the filtering value is selected, which allows displaying more symbols.
For each timeframe, in the "TIMEFRAMES > Prev" field, you can enable the display of data for the previous bar relative to the last (current) one, if the market is open for the requested symbol. In the "TIMEFRAMES > Y" field, you can enable filtering depending on the location of the last five bars relative to the Alligator indicator lines, which are designated by special symbols in the screener table:
⬆️ — if the Alligator is open upwards (Lips > Teeth > Jaw) and none of the bars is closed below the Lips line;
↗️ — if one of the bars, except for the penultimate one, is closed below Lips, or two bars, except for the last one, are closed below Lips, or the Alligator is open upwards only below four bars, but none of the bars is closed below Lips;
⬇️ — if the Alligator is open downwards (Lips < Teeth < Jaw), but none of the bars is closed above Lips;
↘️ — if one of the bars, except the penultimate one, is closed above the Lips, or two bars, except the last one, are closed above the Lips, or the Alligator is open down only above four bars, but none of the bars are closed above the Lips;
➡️ — in other cases, including when the Alligator lines intersect and one of the bars is closed behind the Lips line or two bars intersect one of the Alligator lines.
In the "TIMEFRAMES > Show bar change value for TF" field, you can add a column to the right of the selected timeframe column with the percentage change between the closing price of the last bar (current) and the closing price of the previous bar ((close – previous close) / previous close * 100). Depending on the percentage value, the background color of the screener table cell will change: dark red if <= -3%; red if <= -2%, light red if <= -0.5%; dark green if >= 3%; green if >= 2%; light green if >= 0.5%.
For each timeframe, the screener table displays the symbol of the latest (current) bar, depending on the closing price relative to the bar's midpoint ((high + low) / 2) and its location relative to the Alligator indicator lines: ⎾ — the bar's closing price is above its midpoint; ⎿ — the bar's closing price is below its midpoint; ├ — the bar's closing price is equal to its midpoint; 🟢 — Bullish Divergent bar, i.e. the bar's closing price is above its midpoint, the bar's high is below all Alligator lines, the bar's low is below the previous bar's low; 🔴 — Bearish Divergent bar, i.e. the bar's closing price is below its midpoint, the bar's low is above all Alligator lines, the bar's high is above the previous bar's high. When filtering is enabled in the "TIMEFRAMES > Filtering by Divergent bar" field, the data in the screener table cells will be displayed only for those timeframes that have a Divergent bar. A high bar volume signal is also displayed — 📶/📶² if the bar volume is greater than 40%/70% of the average volume value calculated using a simple moving average (SMA) in the 140 bar interval from the last bar.
In the indicator settings in the "SYMBOL LIST" field, each ticker (for example: OANDA:SPX500USD) must be on a separate line. If the market is closed, then the data for requested symbols will be limited to the time of the last (current) bar on the chart, for example, if the current symbol was traded yesterday, and the requested symbol is traded today, when requesting data for an hourly timeframe, the last bar will be for yesterday, if the timeframe of the current chart is not higher than 1 day. Therefore, by default, a warning will be displayed on the chart instead of the screener table that if the market is open, you must wait for the screener to load (after the first price change on the current chart), or if the highest timeframe in the screener is 1 day, you will be prompted to change the timeframe on the current chart to 1 week, if the screener requests data for the timeframe of 1 week, you will be prompted to change the timeframe on the current chart to 1 month, or switch to another symbol on the current chart for which the market is open (for example: BINANCE:BTCUSDT), or disable the warning in the field "SYMBOL LIST > Do not display screener if market is close".
The number of the last columns with the color of the AO indicator that will be displayed in the screener table for each timeframe is specified in the indicator settings in the "AWESOME OSCILLATOR > Number of columns" field.
For each timeframe, the direction of the trend between the price of the highest and lowest bars in the specified range of bars from the last bar is displayed — ↑ if the trend is up (the highest bar is to the right of the lowest), or ↓ if the trend is down (the lowest bar is to the right of the highest). If there is a divergence on the AO indicator in the specified interval, the symbol ∇ is also displayed. The average volume value is also calculated in the specified interval using a simple moving average (SMA). The number of bars is set in the indicator settings in the "INTERVAL FOR HIGHEST AND LOWEST BARS > Bars count" field.
In the indicator settings in the "STYLE" field you can change the position of the screener table relative to the chart window, the background color, the color and size of the text.
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Скринер на основе стратегии Profitunity Билла Вильямса для нескольких таймфреймов (максимум 5, включая таймфрейм графика) и настраиваемого списка символов. Скринер анализирует индикаторы Alligator и Awesome Oscillator, Дивергентные бары и бары с высоким объемом.
Максимально допустимое количество запросов (символы и таймфреймы) ограничено 40 запросами, например, для 10 символов по 4 запроса разных таймфреймов. Поэтому в индикаторе автоматически ограничивается количество отображаемых символов в зависимости от количества таймфреймов для каждого символа, если символов больше чем отображено в таблице скринера, то слева от символов отображаются порядковые номера, в таком случае можно отобразить следующую группу символов, увеличив значение на 1 в настройках индикатора поле "Show tickers from", если включено поле "Group", или указать номер символа на 1 больше, чем последний символ в таблице скринера. 👀 Когда применяется фильтрация по таймфрейму, в таблице скринера отображаются только столбцы тех таймфреймов, для которых выбрано значение фильтрации, что позволяет отображать большее количество символов.
Для каждого таймфрейма в настройках индикатора в поле "TIMEFRAMES > Prev" можно включить отображение данных для предыдущего бара относительно последнего (текущего), если для запрашиваемого символа рынок открыт. В поле "TIMEFRAMES > Y" можно включить фильтрацию, в зависимости от расположения последних пяти баров относительно линий индикатора Alligator, которые обозначаются специальными символами в таблице скринера:
⬆️ — если Alligator открыт вверх (Lips > Teeth > Jaw) и ни один из баров не закрыт ниже линии Lips;
↗️ — если один из баров, кроме предпоследнего, закрыт ниже Lips, или два бара, кроме последнего, закрыты ниже Lips, или Alligator открыт вверх только ниже четырех баров, но ни один из баров не закрыт ниже Lips;
⬇️ — если Alligator открыт вниз (Lips < Teeth < Jaw), но ни один из баров не закрыт выше Lips;
↘️ — если один из баров, кроме предпоследнего, закрыт выше Lips, или два бара, кроме последнего, закрыты выше Lips, или Alligator открыт вниз только выше четырех баров, но ни один из баров не закрыт выше Lips;
➡️ — в остальных случаях, в то числе когда линии Alligator пересекаются и один из баров закрыт за линией Lips или два бара пересекают одну из линий Alligator.
В поле "TIMEFRAMES > Show bar change value for TF" можно добавить справа от выбранного столбца таймфрейма столбец с процентным изменением между ценой закрытия последнего бара (текущего) и ценой закрытия предыдущего бара ((close – previous close) / previous close * 100). В зависимости от величины процента будет меняться цвет фона ячейки таблицы скринера: темно-красный, если <= -3%; красный, если <= -2%, светло-красный, если <= -0.5%; темно-зеленый, если >= 3%; зеленый, если >= 2%; светло-зеленый, если >= 0.5%.
Для каждого таймфрейма в таблице скринера отображается символ последнего (текущего) бара, в зависимости от цены закрытия относительно середины бара ((high + low) / 2) и расположения относительно линий индикатора Alligator: ⎾ — цена закрытия бара выше его середины; ⎿ — цена закрытия бара ниже его середины; ├ — цена закрытия бара равна его середине; 🟢 — Бычий Дивергентный бар, т.е. цена закрытия бара выше его середины, максимум бара ниже всех линий Alligator, минимум бара ниже минимума предыдущего бара; 🔴 — Медвежий Дивергентный бар, т.е. цена закрытия бара ниже его середины, минимум бара выше всех линий Alligator, максимум бара выше максимума предыдущего бара. При включении фильтрации в поле "TIMEFRAMES > Filtering by Divergent bar" данные в ячейках таблицы скринера будут отображаться только для тех таймфреймов, где есть Дивергентный бар. Также отображается сигнал высокого объема бара — 📶/📶², если объем бара больше чем на 40%/70% среднего значения объема, рассчитанного с помощью простой скользящей средней (SMA) в интервале 140 баров от последнего бара.
В настройках индикатора в поле "SYMBOL LIST" каждый тикер (например: OANDA:SPX500USD) должен быть на отдельной строке. Если рынок закрыт, то данные для запрашиваемых символов будут ограничены временем последнего (текущего) бара на графике, например, если текущий символ торговался последний день вчера, а запрашиваемый символ торгуется сегодня, при запросе данных для часового таймфрейма, последний бар будет за вчерашний день, если таймфрейм текущего графика не выше 1 дня. Поэтому по умолчанию на графике будет отображаться предупреждение вместо таблицы скринера о том, что если рынок открыт, то необходимо дождаться загрузки скринера (после первого изменения цены на текущем графике), или если в скринере самый высокий таймфрейм 1 день, то будет предложено изменить на текущем графике таймфрейм на 1 неделю, если в скринере запрашиваются данные для таймфрейма 1 неделя, то будет предложено изменить на текущем графике таймфрейм на 1 месяц, или же переключиться на другой символ на текущем графике, для которого рынок открыт (например: BINANCE:BTCUSDT), или отключить предупреждение в поле "SYMBOL LIST > Do not display screener if market is close".
Количество последних столбцов с цветом индикатора AO, которые будут отображены в таблице скринера для каждого таймфрейма, указывается в настройках индикатора в поле "AWESOME OSCILLATOR > Number of columns".
Для каждого таймфрейма отображается направление тренда между ценой самого высокого и самого низкого баров в указанном интервале баров от последнего бара — ↑, если тренд направлен вверх (самый высокий бар справа от самого низкого), или ↓, если тренд направлен вниз (самый низкий бар справа от самого высокого). Если есть дивергенция на индикаторе AO в указанном интервале, то также отображается символ — ∇. В указанном интервале также рассчитывается среднее значение объема с помощью простой скользящей средней (SMA). Количество баров устанавливается в настройках индикатора в поле "INTERVAL FOR HIGHEST AND LOWEST BARS > Bars count".
В настройках индикатора в поле "STYLE" можно изменить положение таблицы скринера относительно окна графика, цвет фона, цвет и размер текста.
Adaptive ATR Limits█ OVERVIEW
This indicator plots adaptive ATR limits for intraday trading. A key feature of this indicator, which makes it different from other ATR limit indicators, is that the top and bottom ATR limit lines are always exactly one ATR apart from each other (in "auto" mode; there is also a "basic" mode, which plots the limits in the more traditional way—i.e., one ATR above the low and one ATR below the high at all times—and this can be used for comparison).
█ FEATURES
Provides an algorithm to plot the most reasonable intraday ATR top/bottom limits based on currently available information
Dynamically adapts limits as the price evolves during the day
Works correctly and consistently on both RTH and ETH charts
Has a user-selected ADR mode to base the limits on ADR instead of ATR
Option to include the current pre-market and previous day's post-market range in the calculation
Configurable ATR/ADR averaging length
Provides a visual smoothing option
Provides an information box showing the current numerical ATR/ADR values
Reasonable defaults that work well if the user changes nothing
Well-documented, high-quality, open-source code for those interested
█ HOW TO USE
At a minimum, there is nothing that needs to be set. The defaults work well. The ATR top line (red, configurable) gives you the most reasonable move given the currently available information. The line will move away from the price as the price approaches it; that is normal—it is reacting to new information. This happens until the ATR bottom limit hits the lower of the daily low and the previous day's close (in ATR mode). The ATR bottom line (green, configurable) works the same way, with reversed logic.
There is an option to use ADR instead of ATR. The ATR includes the previous day's RTH close in the range, whereas ADR does not. Another option allows the user to add the current day's pre-market range or the previous day's post-market into the current day's range, which has an effect if either of those went outside of today's RTH range, plus yesterday's RTH close (in the default ATR mode). Pre-market and post-market range is not typically included in the daily true range, so only change it if you really know you want it.
█ CONCEPTS
Most traditional ATR limit indicators plot the top ATR limit one ATR above the current daily low, and the bottom ATR limit one ATR below the current daily high. This indicator can also do that (in "basic" mode), but its value lies in its default "auto" mode, which uses an algorithm to dynamically adapt the ATR limits throughout the day, keeping them one ATR apart at all times. It tries to plot the most sensible ATR limits based on the current daily ATR, in order to provide a reasonable visual intraday target, given the available information at that point in time.
"Auto" mode is actually a weighted average of two methods: midpoint and relative (both of which can also be explicitly selected). The midpoint method places the midpoint of the ATR limit equal to the midpoint of the currently established daily range. The relative method measures the currently established daily range and calculates the position of the current price within it (as a ratio between 0 and 1). It then uses that value as a weight in a weighted average of extreme locations for the ATR limits, which are: the ATR top anchored to one ATR above the daily low, and the ATR bottom anchored to one ATR below the daily high.
The relative method is more advanced and better for most of the day; however, it can cause wild swings in the early market or pre-market before a reasonable range (as a percentage of ATR) has been established. "Auto" mode therefore takes another weighted average between the two methods, with the weight determined by the percentage of the ATR currently established within the day, more strongly weighting the calmer midpoint method before a good range is established. Once the full ATR has been achieved, the algorithm in "auto" mode will have fully switched to the relative method and will remain with that method for the rest of the day.
To explain the effect further, as an example, imagine that the price is approaching the full ATR range on the high side. At this point, the indicator will have almost fully transitioned to the second (relative) method. The lower ATR limit will now be anchored to the daily low as the price hits the upper ATR limit. If the price goes beyond the upper ATR, the lower ATR limit will stay anchored to the daily low, and the upper limit will stay anchored to one ATR above the lower limit. This allows you to see how far the price is going beyond the upper ATR limit. If the price then returns and backs off the upper ATR limit, the lower ATR limit will un-anchor from the daily low (it will actually rise, since the daily ATR range has been exceeded, so the lower ATR limit needs to come up because the actual daily range can’t fit into the ATR range anymore). The overall effect is to give you the best visual indication of where the price is in relation to a possible upper ATR-based target. Reverse this example for when the price low approaches the ATR range on the low side.
Care was taken so that the code uses no hard-coded time zones, exchanges, or session times. For this reason, it can in principle work globally. However, it very much depends on the information provided by the exchange, which is reflected in built-in Pine Script variables (see Limitations below).
█ LIMITATIONS
The indicator was developed for US/European equities and is tested on them only. It is also known to work on US futures; in this case, the whole 23-hour session is used, and the "Sessions to include in range" setting has no effect. It may or may not work as intended on security types and equities/futures for other countries.
MultiLayer Acceleration/Deceleration Strategy [Skyrexio]Overview
MultiLayer Acceleration/Deceleration Strategy leverages the combination of Acceleration/Deceleration Indicator(AC), Williams Alligator, Williams Fractals and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to obtain the high probability long setups. Moreover, strategy uses multi trades system, adding funds to long position if it considered that current trend has likely became stronger. Acceleration/Deceleration Indicator is used for creating signals, while Alligator and Fractal are used in conjunction as an approximation of short-term trend to filter them. At the same time EMA (default EMA's period = 100) is used as high probability long-term trend filter to open long trades only if it considers current price action as an uptrend. More information in "Methodology" and "Justification of Methodology" paragraphs. The strategy opens only long trades.
Unique Features
No fixed stop-loss and take profit: Instead of fixed stop-loss level strategy utilizes technical condition obtained by Fractals and Alligator to identify when current uptrend is likely to be over (more information in "Methodology" and "Justification of Methodology" paragraphs)
Configurable Trading Periods: Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Multilayer trades opening system: strategy uses only 10% of capital in every trade and open up to 5 trades at the same time if script consider current trend as strong one.
Short and long term trend trade filters: strategy uses EMA as high probability long-term trend filter and Alligator and Fractal combination as a short-term one.
Methodology
The strategy opens long trade when the following price met the conditions:
1. Price closed above EMA (by default, period = 100). Crossover is not obligatory.
2. Combination of Alligator and Williams Fractals shall consider current trend as an upward (all details in "Justification of Methodology" paragraph)
3. Acceleration/Deceleration shall create one of two types of long signals (all details in "Justification of Methodology" paragraph). Buy stop order is placed one tick above the candle's high of last created long signal.
4. If price reaches the order price, long position is opened with 10% of capital.
5. If currently we have opened position and price creates and hit the order price of another one long signal, another one long position will be added to the previous with another one 10% of capital. Strategy allows to open up to 5 long trades simultaneously.
6. If combination of Alligator and Williams Fractals shall consider current trend has been changed from up to downtrend, all long trades will be closed, no matter how many trades has been opened.
Script also has additional visuals. If second long trade has been opened simultaneously the Alligator's teeth line is plotted with the green color. Also for every trade in a row from 2 to 5 the label "Buy More" is also plotted just below the teeth line. With every next simultaneously opened trade the green color of the space between teeth and price became less transparent.
Strategy settings
In the inputs window user can setup strategy setting: EMA Length (by default = 100, period of EMA, used for long-term trend filtering EMA calculation). User can choose the optimal parameters during backtesting on certain price chart.
Justification of Methodology
Let's explore the key concepts of this strategy and understand how they work together. We'll begin with the simplest: the EMA.
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a type of moving average that assigns greater weight to recent price data, making it more responsive to current market changes compared to the Simple Moving Average (SMA). This tool is widely used in technical analysis to identify trends and generate buy or sell signals. The EMA is calculated as follows:
1.Calculate the Smoothing Multiplier:
Multiplier = 2 / (n + 1), Where n is the number of periods.
2. EMA Calculation
EMA = (Current Price) × Multiplier + (Previous EMA) × (1 − Multiplier)
In this strategy, the EMA acts as a long-term trend filter. For instance, long trades are considered only when the price closes above the EMA (default: 100-period). This increases the likelihood of entering trades aligned with the prevailing trend.
Next, let’s discuss the short-term trend filter, which combines the Williams Alligator and Williams Fractals. Williams Alligator
Developed by Bill Williams, the Alligator is a technical indicator that identifies trends and potential market reversals. It consists of three smoothed moving averages:
Jaw (Blue Line): The slowest of the three, based on a 13-period smoothed moving average shifted 8 bars ahead.
Teeth (Red Line): The medium-speed line, derived from an 8-period smoothed moving average shifted 5 bars forward.
Lips (Green Line): The fastest line, calculated using a 5-period smoothed moving average shifted 3 bars forward.
When the lines diverge and align in order, the "Alligator" is "awake," signaling a strong trend. When the lines overlap or intertwine, the "Alligator" is "asleep," indicating a range-bound or sideways market. This indicator helps traders determine when to enter or avoid trades.
Fractals, another tool by Bill Williams, help identify potential reversal points on a price chart. A fractal forms over at least five consecutive bars, with the middle bar showing either:
Up Fractal: Occurs when the middle bar has a higher high than the two preceding and two following bars, suggesting a potential downward reversal.
Down Fractal: Happens when the middle bar shows a lower low than the surrounding two bars, hinting at a possible upward reversal.
Traders often use fractals alongside other indicators to confirm trends or reversals, enhancing decision-making accuracy.
How do these tools work together in this strategy? Let’s consider an example of an uptrend.
When the price breaks above an up fractal, it signals a potential bullish trend. This occurs because the up fractal represents a shift in market behavior, where a temporary high was formed due to selling pressure. If the price revisits this level and breaks through, it suggests the market sentiment has turned bullish.
The breakout must occur above the Alligator’s teeth line to confirm the trend. A breakout below the teeth is considered invalid, and the downtrend might still persist. Conversely, in a downtrend, the same logic applies with down fractals.
In this strategy if the most recent up fractal breakout occurs above the Alligator's teeth and follows the last down fractal breakout below the teeth, the algorithm identifies an uptrend. Long trades can be opened during this phase if a signal aligns. If the price breaks a down fractal below the teeth line during an uptrend, the strategy assumes the uptrend has ended and closes all open long trades.
By combining the EMA as a long-term trend filter with the Alligator and fractals as short-term filters, this approach increases the likelihood of opening profitable trades while staying aligned with market dynamics.
Now let's talk about Acceleration/Deceleration signals. AC indicator is calculated using the Awesome Oscillator, so let's first of all briefly explain what is Awesome Oscillator and how it can be calculated. The Awesome Oscillator (AO), developed by Bill Williams, is a momentum indicator designed to measure market momentum by contrasting recent price movements with a longer-term historical perspective. It helps traders detect potential trend reversals and assess the strength of ongoing trends.
The formula for AO is as follows:
AO = SMA5(Median Price) − SMA34(Median Price)
where:
Median Price = (High + Low) / 2
SMA5 = 5-period Simple Moving Average of the Median Price
SMA 34 = 34-period Simple Moving Average of the Median Price
The Acceleration/Deceleration (AC) Indicator, introduced by Bill Williams, measures the rate of change in market momentum. It highlights shifts in the driving force of price movements and helps traders spot early signs of trend changes. The AC Indicator is particularly useful for identifying whether the current momentum is accelerating or decelerating, which can indicate potential reversals or continuations. For AC calculation we shall use the AO calculated above is the following formula:
AC = AO − SMA5(AO), where SMA5(AO)is the 5-period Simple Moving Average of the Awesome Oscillator
When the AC is above the zero line and rising, it suggests accelerating upward momentum.
When the AC is below the zero line and falling, it indicates accelerating downward momentum.
When the AC is below zero line and rising it suggests the decelerating the downtrend momentum. When AC is above the zero line and falling, it suggests the decelerating the uptrend momentum.
Now we can explain which AC signal types are used in this strategy. The first type of long signal is when AC value is below zero line. In this cases we need to see three rising bars on the histogram in a row after the falling one. The second type of signals occurs above the zero line. There we need only two rising AC bars in a row after the falling one to create the signal. The signal bar is the last green bar in this sequence. The strategy places the buy stop order one tick above the candle's high, which corresponds to the signal bar on AC indicator.
After that we can have the following scenarios:
Price hit the order on the next candle in this case strategy opened long with this price.
Price doesn't hit the order price, the next candle set lower high. If current AC bar is increasing buy stop order changes by the script to the high of this new bar plus one tick. This procedure repeats until price finally hit buy order or current AC bar become decreasing. In the second case buy order cancelled and strategy wait for the next AC signal.
If long trades are initiated, the strategy continues utilizing subsequent signals until the total number of trades reaches a maximum of 5. All open trades are closed when the trend shifts to a downtrend, as determined by the combination of the Alligator and Fractals described earlier.
Why we use AC signals? If currently strategy algorithm considers the high probability of the short-term uptrend with the Alligator and Fractals combination pointed out above and the long-term trend is also suggested by the EMA filter as bullish. Rising AC bars after period of falling AC bars indicates the high probability of local pull back end and there is a high chance to open long trade in the direction of the most likely main uptrend. The numbers of rising bars are different for the different AC values (below or above zero line). This is needed because if AC below zero line the local downtrend is likely to be stronger and needs more rising bars to confirm that it has been changed than if AC is above zero.
Why strategy use only 10% per signal? Sometimes we can see the false signals which appears on sideways. Not risking that much script use only 10% per signal. If the first long trade has been open and price continue going up and our trend approximation by Alligator and Fractals is uptrend, strategy add another one 10% of capital to every next AC signal while number of active trades no more than 5. This capital allocation allows to take part in long trades when current uptrend is likely to be strong and use only 10% of capital when there is a high probability of sideways.
Backtest Results
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2023.01.01 - 2024.11.01. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Initial capital: 10000 USDT
Percent of capital used in every trade: 10%
Maximum Single Position Loss: -5.15%
Maximum Single Profit: +24.57%
Net Profit: +2108.85 USDT (+21.09%)
Total Trades: 111 (36.94% win rate)
Profit Factor: 2.391
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 367.61 USDT (-2.97%)
Average Profit per Trade: 19.00 USDT (+1.78%)
Average Trade Duration: 75 hours
How to Use
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired timeframe and chart (optimal performance observed on 3h BTC/USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters.
Hybrid Adaptive Double Exponential Smoothing🙏🏻 This is HADES (Hybrid Adaptive Double Exponential Smoothing) : fully data-driven & adaptive exponential smoothing method, that gains all the necessary info directly from data in the most natural way and needs no subjective parameters & no optimizations. It gets applied to data itself -> to fit residuals & one-point forecast errors, all at O(1) algo complexity. I designed it for streaming high-frequency univariate time series data, such as medical sensor readings, orderbook data, tick charts, requests generated by a backend, etc.
The HADES method is:
fit & forecast = a + b * (1 / alpha + T - 1)
T = 0 provides in-sample fit for the current datum, and T + n provides forecast for n datapoints.
y = input time series
a = y, if no previous data exists
b = 0, if no previous data exists
otherwise:
a = alpha * y + (1 - alpha) * a
b = alpha * (a - a ) + (1 - alpha) * b
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 4)
len = min(ceil(exp(1 / sig)), available data)
sig = sqrt(Absolute net change in y / Sum of absolute changes in y)
For the start datapoint when both numerator and denominator are zeros, we define 0 / 0 = 1
...
The same set of operations gets applied to the data first, then to resulting fit absolute residuals to build prediction interval, and finally to absolute forecasting errors (from one-point ahead forecast) to build forecasting interval:
prediction interval = data fit +- resoduals fit * k
forecasting interval = data opf +- errors fit * k
where k = multiplier regulating intervals width, and opf = one-point forecasts calculated at each time t
...
How-to:
0) Apply to your data where it makes sense, eg. tick data;
1) Use power transform to compensate for multiplicative behavior in case it's there;
2) If you have complete data or only the data you need, like the full history of adjusted close prices: go to the next step; otherwise, guided by your goal & analysis, adjust the 'start index' setting so the calculations will start from this point;
3) Use prediction interval to detect significant deviations from the process core & make decisions according to your strategy;
4) Use one-point forecast for nowcasting;
5) Use forecasting intervals to ~ understand where the next datapoints will emerge, given the data-generating process will stay the same & lack structural breaks.
I advise k = 1 or 1.5 or 4 depending on your goal, but 1 is the most natural one.
...
Why exponential smoothing at all? Why the double one? Why adaptive? Why not Holt's method?
1) It's O(1) algo complexity & recursive nature allows it to be applied in an online fashion to high-frequency streaming data; otherwise, it makes more sense to use other methods;
2) Double exponential smoothing ensures we are taking trends into account; also, in order to model more complex time series patterns such as seasonality, we need detrended data, and this method can be used to do it;
3) The goal of adaptivity is to eliminate the window size question, in cases where it doesn't make sense to use cumulative moving typical value;
4) Holt's method creates a certain interaction between level and trend components, so its results lack symmetry and similarity with other non-recursive methods such as quantile regression or linear regression. Instead, I decided to base my work on the original double exponential smoothing method published by Rob Brown in 1956, here's the original source , it's really hard to find it online. This cool dude is considered the one who've dropped exponential smoothing to open access for the first time🤘🏻
R&D; log & explanations
If you wanna read this, you gotta know, you're taking a great responsability for this long journey, and it gonna be one hell of a trip hehe
Machine learning, apprentissage automatique, машинное обучение, digital signal processing, statistical learning, data mining, deep learning, etc., etc., etc.: all these are just artificial categories created by the local population of this wonderful world, but what really separates entities globally in the Universe is solution complexity / algorithmic complexity.
In order to get the game a lil better, it's gonna be useful to read the HTES script description first. Secondly, let me guide you through the whole R&D; process.
To discover (not to invent) the fundamental universal principle of what exponential smoothing really IS, it required the review of the whole concept, understanding that many things don't add up and don't make much sense in currently available mainstream info, and building it all from the beginning while avoiding these very basic logical & implementation flaws.
Given a complete time t, and yet, always growing time series population that can't be logically separated into subpopulations, the very first question is, 'What amount of data do we need to utilize at time t?'. Two answers: 1 and all. You can't really gain much info from 1 datum, so go for the second answer: we need the whole dataset.
So, given the sequential & incremental nature of time series, the very first and basic thing we can do on the whole dataset is to calculate a cumulative , such as cumulative moving mean or cumulative moving median.
Now we need to extend this logic to exponential smoothing, which doesn't use dataset length info directly, but all cool it can be done via a formula that quantifies the relationship between alpha (smoothing parameter) and length. The popular formulas used in mainstream are:
alpha = 1 / length
alpha = 2 / (length + 1)
The funny part starts when you realize that Cumulative Exponential Moving Averages with these 2 alpha formulas Exactly match Cumulative Moving Average and Cumulative (Linearly) Weighted Moving Average, and the same logic goes on:
alpha = 3 / (length + 1.5) , matches Cumulative Weighted Moving Average with quadratic weights, and
alpha = 4 / (length + 2) , matches Cumulative Weighted Moving Average with cubic weghts, and so on...
It all just cries in your shoulder that we need to discover another, native length->alpha formula that leverages the recursive nature of exponential smoothing, because otherwise, it doesn't make sense to use it at all, since the usual CMA and CMWA can be computed incrementally at O(1) algo complexity just as exponential smoothing.
From now on I will not mention 'cumulative' or 'linearly weighted / weighted' anymore, it's gonna be implied all the time unless stated otherwise.
What we can do is to approach the thing logically and model the response with a little help from synthetic data, a sine wave would suffice. Then we can think of relationships: Based on algo complexity from lower to higher, we have this sequence: exponential smoothing @ O(1) -> parametric statistics (mean) @ O(n) -> non-parametric statistics (50th percentile / median) @ O(n log n). Based on Initial response from slow to fast: mean -> median Based on convergence with the real expected value from slow to fast: mean (infinitely approaches it) -> median (gets it quite fast).
Based on these inputs, we need to discover such a length->alpha formula so the resulting fit will have the slowest initial response out of all 3, and have the slowest convergence with expected value out of all 3. In order to do it, we need to have some non-linear transformer in our formula (like a square root) and a couple of factors to modify the response the way we need. I ended up with this formula to meet all our requirements:
alpha = sqrt(1 / length * 2) / 2
which simplifies to:
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 8)
^^ as you can see on the screenshot; where the red line is median, the blue line is the mean, and the purple line is exponential smoothing with the formulas you've just seen, we've met all the requirements.
Now we just have to do the same procedure to discover the length->alpha formula but for double exponential smoothing, which models trends as well, not just level as in single exponential smoothing. For this comparison, we need to use linear regression and quantile regression instead of the mean and median.
Quantile regression requires a non-closed form solution to be solved that you can't really implement in Pine Script, but that's ok, so I made the tests using Python & sklearn:
paste.pics
^^ on this screenshot, you can see the same relationship as on the previous screenshot, but now between the responses of quantile regression & linear regression.
I followed the same logic as before for designing alpha for double exponential smoothing (also considered the initial overshoots, but that's a little detail), and ended up with this formula:
alpha = sqrt(1 / length) / 2
which simplifies to:
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 4)
Btw, given the pattern you see in the resulting formulas for single and double exponential smoothing, if you ever want to do triple (not Holt & Winters) exponential smoothing, you'll need len * 2 , and just len * 1 for quadruple exponential smoothing. I hope that based on this sequence, you see the hint that Maybe 4 rounds is enough.
Now since we've dealt with the length->alpha formula, we can deal with the adaptivity part.
Logically, it doesn't make sense to use a slower-than-O(1) method to generate input for an O(1) method, so it must be something universal and minimalistic: something that will help us measure consistency in our data, yet something far away from statistics and close enough to topology.
There's one perfect entity that can help us, this is fractal efficiency. The way I define fractal efficiency can be checked at the very beginning of the post, what matters is that I add a square root to the formula that is not typically added.
As explained in the description of my metric QSFS , one of the reasons for SQRT-transformed values of fractal efficiency applied in moving window mode is because they start to closely resemble normal distribution, yet with support of (0, 1). Data with this interesting property (normally distributed yet with finite support) can be modeled with the beta distribution.
Another reason is, in infinitely expanding window mode, fractal efficiency of every time series that exhibits randomness tends to infinitely approach zero, sqrt-transform kind of partially neutralizes this effect.
Yet another reason is, the square root might better reflect the dimensional inefficiency or degree of fractal complexity, since it could balance the influence of extreme deviations from the net paths.
And finally, fractals exhibit power-law scaling -> measures like length, area, or volume scale in a non-linear way. Adding a square root acknowledges this intrinsic property, while connecting our metric with the nature of fractals.
---
I suspect that, given analogies and connections with other topics in geometry, topology, fractals and most importantly positive test results of the metric, it might be that the sqrt transform is the fundamental part of fractal efficiency that should be applied by default.
Now the last part of the ballet is to convert our fractal efficiency to length value. The part about inverse proportionality is obvious: high fractal efficiency aka high consistency -> lower window size, to utilize only the last data that contain brand new information that seems to be highly reliable since we have consistency in the first place.
The non-obvious part is now we need to neutralize the side effect created by previous sqrt transform: our length values are too low, and exponentiation is the perfect candidate to fix it since translating fractal efficiency into window sizes requires something non-linear to reflect the fractal dynamics. More importantly, using exp() was the last piece that let the metric shine, any other transformations & formulas alike I've tried always had some weird results on certain data.
That exp() in the len formula was the last piece that made it all work both on synthetic and on real data.
^^ a standalone script calculating optimal dynamic window size
Omg, THAT took time to write. Comment and/or text me if you need
...
"Versace Pip-Boy, I'm a young gun coming up with no bankroll" 👻
∞
MultiLayer Awesome Oscillator Saucer Strategy [Skyrexio]Overview
MultiLayer Awesome Oscillator Saucer Strategy leverages the combination of Awesome Oscillator (AO), Williams Alligator, Williams Fractals and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to obtain the high probability long setups. Moreover, strategy uses multi trades system, adding funds to long position if it considered that current trend has likely became stronger. Awesome Oscillator is used for creating signals, while Alligator and Fractal are used in conjunction as an approximation of short-term trend to filter them. At the same time EMA (default EMA's period = 100) is used as high probability long-term trend filter to open long trades only if it considers current price action as an uptrend. More information in "Methodology" and "Justification of Methodology" paragraphs. The strategy opens only long trades.
Unique Features
No fixed stop-loss and take profit: Instead of fixed stop-loss level strategy utilizes technical condition obtained by Fractals and Alligator to identify when current uptrend is likely to be over (more information in "Methodology" and "Justification of Methodology" paragraphs)
Configurable Trading Periods: Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Multilayer trades opening system: strategy uses only 10% of capital in every trade and open up to 5 trades at the same time if script consider current trend as strong one.
Short and long term trend trade filters: strategy uses EMA as high probability long-term trend filter and Alligator and Fractal combination as a short-term one.
Methodology
The strategy opens long trade when the following price met the conditions:
1. Price closed above EMA (by default, period = 100). Crossover is not obligatory.
2. Combination of Alligator and Williams Fractals shall consider current trend as an upward (all details in "Justification of Methodology" paragraph)
3. Awesome Oscillator shall create the "Saucer" long signal (all details in "Justification of Methodology" paragraph). Buy stop order is placed one tick above the candle's high of last created "Saucer signal".
4. If price reaches the order price, long position is opened with 10% of capital.
5. If currently we have opened position and price creates and hit the order price of another one "Saucer" signal another one long position will be added to the previous with another one 10% of capital. Strategy allows to open up to 5 long trades simultaneously.
6. If combination of Alligator and Williams Fractals shall consider current trend has been changed from up to downtrend, all long trades will be closed, no matter how many trades has been opened.
Script also has additional visuals. If second long trade has been opened simultaneously the Alligator's teeth line is plotted with the green color. Also for every trade in a row from 2 to 5 the label "Buy More" is also plotted just below the teeth line. With every next simultaneously opened trade the green color of the space between teeth and price became less transparent.
Strategy settings
In the inputs window user can setup strategy setting: EMA Length (by default = 100, period of EMA, used for long-term trend filtering EMA calculation). User can choose the optimal parameters during backtesting on certain price chart.
Justification of Methodology
Let's go through all concepts used in this strategy to understand how they works together. Let's start from the easies one, the EMA. Let's briefly explain what is EMA. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a type of moving average that gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to current price changes compared to the Simple Moving Average (SMA). It is commonly used in technical analysis to identify trends and generate buy or sell signals. It can be calculated with the following steps:
1.Calculate the Smoothing Multiplier:
Multiplier = 2 / (n + 1), Where n is the number of periods.
2. EMA Calculation
EMA = (Current Price) × Multiplier + (Previous EMA) × (1 − Multiplier)
In this strategy uses EMA an initial long term trend filter. It allows to open long trades only if price close above EMA (by default 50 period). It increases the probability of taking long trades only in the direction of the trend.
Let's go to the next, short-term trend filter which consists of Alligator and Fractals. Let's briefly explain what do these indicators means. The Williams Alligator, developed by Bill Williams, is a technical indicator designed to spot trends and potential market reversals. It uses three smoothed moving averages, referred to as the jaw, teeth, and lips:
Jaw (Blue Line): The slowest of the three, based on a 13-period smoothed moving average shifted 8 bars ahead.
Teeth (Red Line): The medium-speed line, derived from an 8-period smoothed moving average shifted 5 bars forward.
Lips (Green Line): The fastest line, calculated using a 5-period smoothed moving average shifted 3 bars forward.
When these lines diverge and are properly aligned, the "alligator" is considered "awake," signaling a strong trend. Conversely, when the lines overlap or intertwine, the "alligator" is "asleep," indicating a range-bound or sideways market. This indicator assists traders in identifying when to act on or avoid trades.
The Williams Fractals, another tool introduced by Bill Williams, are used to pinpoint potential reversal points on a price chart. A fractal forms when there are at least five consecutive bars, with the middle bar displaying the highest high (for an up fractal) or the lowest low (for a down fractal), relative to the two bars on either side.
Key Points:
Up Fractal: Occurs when the middle bar has a higher high than the two preceding and two following bars, suggesting a potential downward reversal.
Down Fractal: Happens when the middle bar shows a lower low than the surrounding two bars, hinting at a possible upward reversal.
Traders often combine fractals with other indicators to confirm trends or reversals, improving the accuracy of trading decisions.
How we use their combination in this strategy? Let’s consider an uptrend example. A breakout above an up fractal can be interpreted as a bullish signal, indicating a high likelihood that an uptrend is beginning. Here's the reasoning: an up fractal represents a potential shift in market behavior. When the fractal forms, it reflects a pullback caused by traders selling, creating a temporary high. However, if the price manages to return to that fractal’s high and break through it, it suggests the market has "changed its mind" and a bullish trend is likely emerging.
The moment of the breakout marks the potential transition to an uptrend. It’s crucial to note that this breakout must occur above the Alligator's teeth line. If it happens below, the breakout isn’t valid, and the downtrend may still persist. The same logic applies inversely for down fractals in a downtrend scenario.
So, if last up fractal breakout was higher, than Alligator's teeth and it happened after last down fractal breakdown below teeth, algorithm considered current trend as an uptrend. During this uptrend long trades can be opened if signal was flashed. If during the uptrend price breaks down the down fractal below teeth line, strategy considered that uptrend is finished with the high probability and strategy closes all current long trades. This combination is used as a short term trend filter increasing the probability of opening profitable long trades in addition to EMA filter, described above.
Now let's talk about Awesome Oscillator's "Sauser" signals. Briefly explain what is the Awesome Oscillator. The Awesome Oscillator (AO), created by Bill Williams, is a momentum-based indicator that evaluates market momentum by comparing recent price activity to a broader historical context. It assists traders in identifying potential trend reversals and gauging trend strength.
AO = SMA5(Median Price) − SMA34(Median Price)
where:
Median Price = (High + Low) / 2
SMA5 = 5-period Simple Moving Average of the Median Price
SMA 34 = 34-period Simple Moving Average of the Median Price
Now we know what is AO, but what is the "Saucer" signal? This concept was introduced by Bill Williams, let's briefly explain it and how it's used by this strategy. Initially, this type of signal is a combination of the following AO bars: we need 3 bars in a row, the first one shall be higher than the second, the third bar also shall be higher, than second. All three bars shall be above the zero line of AO. The price bar, which corresponds to third "saucer's" bar is our signal bar. Strategy places buy stop order one tick above the price bar which corresponds to signal bar.
After that we can have the following scenarios.
Price hit the order on the next candle in this case strategy opened long with this price.
Price doesn't hit the order price, the next candle set lower low. If current AO bar is increasing buy stop order changes by the script to the high of this new bar plus one tick. This procedure repeats until price finally hit buy order or current AO bar become decreasing. In the second case buy order cancelled and strategy wait for the next "Saucer" signal.
If long trades has been opened strategy use all the next signals until number of trades doesn't exceed 5. All trades are closed when the trend changes to downtrend according to combination of Alligator and Fractals described above.
Why we use "Saucer" signals? If AO above the zero line there is a high probability that price now is in uptrend if we take into account our two trend filters. When we see the decreasing bars on AO and it's above zero it's likely can be considered as a pullback on the uptrend. When we see the stop of AO decreasing and the first increasing bar has been printed there is a high probability that this local pull back is finished and strategy open long trade in the likely direction of a main trend.
Why strategy use only 10% per signal? Sometimes we can see the false signals which appears on sideways. Not risking that much script use only 10% per signal. If the first long trade has been open and price continue going up and our trend approximation by Alligator and Fractals is uptrend, strategy add another one 10% of capital to every next saucer signal while number of active trades no more than 5. This capital allocation allows to take part in long trades when current uptrend is likely to be strong and use only 10% of capital when there is a high probability of sideways.
Backtest Results
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2023.01.01 - 2024.11.25. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Initial capital: 10000 USDT
Percent of capital used in every trade: 10%
Maximum Single Position Loss: -5.10%
Maximum Single Profit: +22.80%
Net Profit: +2838.58 USDT (+28.39%)
Total Trades: 107 (42.99% win rate)
Profit Factor: 3.364
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 373.43 USDT (-2.98%)
Average Profit per Trade: 26.53 USDT (+2.40%)
Average Trade Duration: 78 hours
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters.
How to Use
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired timeframe and chart (optimal performance observed on 3h BTC/USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation
Harmonic Pattern Detector (75 patterns)Harmonic Pattern Detector offers a record amount of "Harmonic Patterns" in one script, with 75 different patterns detected, together with up to 99 different swing lengths.
🔶 USAGE
Harmonic Patterns are detected from several different ZigZag lines, derived from Swings with different lengths (shorter - longer term)
Depending on the settings ' Minimum/Maximum Swing Length ', the user will see more or less patterns from shorter and/or longer-term swing points.
🔹 Fibonacci Ratio
Certain patterns have only one ratio for a specific retrace/extension instead of one upper and one lower limit. In this case, we add a ' Tolerance ', which adds a percentage tolerance below/above the ratio, creating two limits.
A higher number may show more patterns but may become less valid.
Hoovering over points B, C, and D will show a tooltip with the concerning limits; adjusted limits will be seen if applicable.
Tooltips in settings will also show which patterns the Fibonacci Ratio applies to.
🔹 Triangle Area Ratio
Using Heron's formula , the triangle area is calculated after the X-Y axis is normalized.
Users can filter patterns based on the ratio of the smallest triangle to the largest triangle.
A lower Triangle Area Ratio number leads to more symmetrical patterns but may appear less frequently.
🔶 DETAILS
Harmonic patterns are based on geometric patterns, where the retracement/extension of a swing point must be located between specific Fibonacci ratios of the previous swing/leg. Different Harmonic Patterns require unique ratios to become valid patterns.
In the above example there is a valid 'Max Butterfly' pattern where:
Point B is located between 0.618 - 0.886 retracement level of the X-A leg
Point C is located between 0.382 - 0.886 retracement level of the A-B leg
Point D is located between 1.272 - 2.618 extension level of the B-C leg
Point D is located between 1.272 - 1.618 extension level of the X-A leg
Harmonic Pattern Detector uses ZigZag lines, where swing highs and swing lows alternate. Each ZigZag line is checked for valid Harmonic Patterns . When multiple types of Harmonic Patterns are valid for the same sequence, the pattern will be named after the first one found.
Different swing lengths form different ZigZag lines.
By evaluating different ZigZag lines (up to 99!), shorter—and longer-term patterns can be drawn on the same chart.
🔹 Blocks
The patterns are organized into blocks that can be toggled on or off with a single click.
When a block is enabled, the user can still select which specific patterns within that block are enabled or disabled.
🔹 Visuals
Besides color settings, labels can show pattern names or arrows at point D of the pattern.
Note this will happen 1 bar after validation because one extra bar is needed for confirmation.
An option is included to show only arrows without the patterns.
🔹 Updated Patterns
When a Swing Low is followed by a lower low or a Swing High followed by a higher high , triggering a pattern identical to a previous one except with a different point D, the pattern will be updated. The previous C-D line will be visible as a dashed line to highlight the event. Only the last dashed line is shown when this happens more than once.
🔹 Optimization
The script only verifies the last leg in the initial phase, significantly reducing the time spent on pattern validation. If this leg doesn't align with a potential Harmonic Pattern , the pattern is immediately disregarded. In the subsequent phase, the remaining patterns are quickly scrutinized to ensure the next leg is valid. This efficient process continues, with only valid patterns progressing to the next phase until all sequences have been thoroughly examined.
This process can check up to 99 ZigZag lines for 75 different Harmonic Patterns , showcasing its high capacity and versatility.
🔹 Ratios
The following table shows the different ratios used for each Harmonic Pattern .
' min ' and ' max ' are used when only one limit is provided instead of 2. This limit is given a percentage tolerance above and below, customizable by the setting ' Tolerance - Fibonacci Ratio '.
For example a ratio of 0.618 with a tolerance of 1% would result in:
an upper limit of 0.624
a lower limit of 0.612
|-------------------|------------------------|------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|
| NAME PATTERN | BCD (BD) | ABC (AC) | XAB (XB) | XAD (XD) |
| | min max | min max | min max | min max |
|-------------------|------------------------|------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|
| 'ABCD' | 1.272 - 1.618 | 0.618 - 0.786 | | |
| '5-0' | 0.5 *min - 0.5 *max | 1.618 - 2.24 | 1.13 - 1.618 | |
| 'Max Gartley' | 1.128 - 2.236 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 0.618 - 0.786 |
| 'Gartley' | 1.272 - 1.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.618*min - 0.618*max | 0.786*min - 0.786*max |
| 'A Gartley' | 1.618*min - 1.618*max | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.618 - 0.786 | 1.272*min - 1.272*max |
| 'NN Gartley' | 1.128 - 1.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.618*min - 0.618*max | 0.786*min - 0.786*max |
| 'NN A Gartley' | 1.618*min - 1.618*max | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.618 - 0.786 | 1.272*min - 1.272*max |
| 'Bat' | 1.618 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382 - 0.5 | 0.886*min - 0.886*max |
| 'Alt Bat' | 2.0 - 3.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382*min - 0.382*max | 1.128*min - 1.128*max |
| 'A Bat' | 2.0 - 2.618 | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 1.128*min - 1.128*max |
| 'Max Bat' | 1.272 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 0.886*min - 0.886*max |
| 'NN Bat' | 1.618 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382 - 0.5 | 0.886*min - 0.886*max |
| 'NN Alt Bat' | 2.0 - 4.236 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382*min - 0.382*max | 1.128*min - 1.128*max |
| 'NN A Bat' | 2.0 - 2.618 | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 1.128*min - 1.128*max |
| 'NN A Alt Bat' | 2.618*min - 2.618*max | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.236 - 0.5 | 0.886*min - 0.886*max |
| 'Butterfly' | 1.618 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.786*min - 0.786*max | 1.272 - 1.618 |
| 'Max Butterfly' | 1.272 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.618 - 0.886 | 1.272 - 1.618 |
| 'Butterfly 113' | 1.128 - 1.618 | 0.618 - 1.0 | 0.786 - 1.0 | 1.128*min - 1.128*max |
| 'A Butterfly' | 1.272*min - 1.272*max | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 0.618 - 0.786 |
| 'Crab' | 2.24 - 3.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 1.618*min - 1.618*max |
| 'Deep Crab' | 2.618 - 3.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.886*min - 0.886*max | 1.618*min - 1.618*max |
| 'A Crab' | 1.618 - 2.618 | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.276 - 0.446 | 0.618*min - 0.618*max |
| 'NN Crab' | 2.236 - 4.236 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 1.618*min - 1.618*max |
| 'NN Deep Crab' | 2.618 - 4.236 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.886*min - 0.886*max | 1.618*min - 1.618*max |
| 'NN A Crab' | 1.128 - 2.618 | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.236 - 0.447 | 0.618*min - 0.618*max |
| 'NN A Deep Crab' | 1.128*min - 1.128*max | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.236 - 0.382 | 0.618*min - 0.618*max |
| 'Cypher' | 1.272 - 2.00 | 1.13 - 1.414 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 0.786*min - 0.786*max |
| 'New Cypher' | 1.272 - 2.00 | 1.414 - 2.14 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 0.786*min - 0.786*max |
| 'Anti New Cypher' | 1.618 - 2.618 | 0.467 - 0.707 | 0.5 - 0.786 | 1.272*min - 1.272*max |
| 'Shark 1' | 1.618 - 2.236 | 1.128 - 1.618 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 0.886*min - 0.886*max |
| 'Shark 1 Alt' | 1.618 - 2.618 | 0.618 - 0.886 | 0.446 - 0.618 | 1.128*min - 1.128*max |
| 'Shark 2' | 1.618 - 2.236 | 1.128 - 1.618 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 1.128*min - 1.128*max |
| 'Shark 2 Alt' | 1.618 - 2.618 | 0.618 - 0.886 | 0.446 - 0.618 | 0.886*min - 0.886*max |
| 'Leonardo' | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.5*min - 0.5*max | 0.786*min - 0.786*max |
| 'NN A Leonardo' | 2.0*min - 2.0*max | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 1.272*min - 1.272*max |
| 'Nen Star' | 1.272 - 2.0 | 1.414 - 2.14 | 0.382 - 0.618 | 1.272*min - 1.272*max |
| 'Anti Nen Star' | 1.618 - 2.618 | 0.467 - 0.707 | 0.5 - 0.786 | 0.786*min - 0.786*max |
| '3 Drives' | 1.272 - 1.618 | 0.618 - 0.786 | 1.272 - 1.618 | 1.618 - 2.618 |
| 'A 3 Drives' | 0.618 - 0.786 | 1.272 - 1.618 | 0.618 - 0.786 | 0.13 - 0.886 |
| '121' | 0.382 - 0.786 | 1.128 - 3.618 | 0.5 - 0.786 | 0.382 - 0.786 |
| 'A 121' | 1.272 - 2.0 | 0.5 - 0.786 | 1.272 - 2.0 | 1.272 - 2.618 |
| '121 BG' | 0.618 - 0.707 | 1.128 - 1.733 | 0.5 - 0.577 | 0.447 - 0.786 |
| 'Black Swan' | 1.128 - 2.0 | 0.236 - 0.5 | 1.382 - 2.618 | 1.128 - 2.618 |
| 'White Swan' | 0.5 - 0.886 | 2.0 - 4.237 | 0.382 - 0.786 | 0.238 - 0.886 |
| 'NN White Swan' | 0.5 - 0.886 | 2.0 - 4.236 | 0.382 - 0.724 | 0.382 - 0.886 |
| 'Sea Pony' | 1.618 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.5 | 0.128 - 3.618 | 0.618 - 3.618 |
| 'Navarro 200' | 0.886 - 3.618 | 0.886 - 1.128 | 0.382 - 0.786 | 0.886 - 1.128 |
| 'May-00' | 0.5 - 0.618 | 1.618 - 2.236 | 1.128 - 1.618 | 0.5 - 0.618 |
| 'SNORM' | 0.9 - 1.1 | 0.9 - 1.1 | 0.9 - 1.1 | 0.618 - 1.618 |
| 'COL Poruchik' | 1.0 *min - 1.0 *max | 0.382 - 2.618 | 0.128 - 3.618 | 0.618 - 3.618 |
| 'Henry – David' | 0.618 - 0.886 | 0.44 - 0.618 | 0.128 - 2.0 | 0.618 - 1.618 |
| 'DAVID VM 1' | 1.618 - 1.618 | 0.382*min - 0.382*max | 0.128 - 1.618 | 0.618 - 3.618 |
| 'DAVID VM 2' | 1.618 - 1.618 | 0.382*min - 0.382*max | 1.618 - 3.618 | 0.618 - 7.618 |
| 'Partizan' | 1.618*min - 1.618*max | 0.382*min - 0.382*max | 0.128 - 3.618 | 0.618 - 3.618 |
| 'Partizan 2' | 1.618 - 2.236 | 1.128 - 1.618 | 0.128 - 3.618 | 1.618 - 3.618 |
| 'Partizan 2.1' | 1.618*min - 1.618*max | 1.128*min - 1.128*max | 0.128 - 3.618 | 0.618 - 3.618 |
| 'Partizan 2.2' | 2.236*min - 2.236*max | 1.128*min - 1.128*max | 0.128 - 3.618 | 0.618 - 3.618 |
| 'Partizan 2.3' | 1.618*min - 1.618*max | 0.618 - 1.618 | 0.128 - 3.618 | 0.618 - 3.618 |
| 'Partizan 2.4' | 2.236*min - 2.236*max | 1.618*min - 1.618*max | 0.128 - 3.618 | 0.618 - 3.618 |
| 'TOTAL' | 1.272 - 3.618 | 0.382 - 2.618 | 0.276 - 0.786 | 0.618 - 1.618 |
| 'TOTAL NN' | 1.272 - 4.236 | 0.382 - 2.618 | 0.236 - 0.786 | 0.618 - 1.618 |
| 'TOTAL 1' | 1.272 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382 - 0.786 | 0.786 - 0.886 |
| 'TOTAL 2' | 1.618 - 3.618 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382 - 0.786 | 1.128 - 1.618 |
| 'TOTNN 2NN' | 1.618 - 4.236 | 0.382 - 0.886 | 0.382 - 0.786 | 1.128 - 1.618 |
| 'TOTAL 3' | 1.272 - 2.618 | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.276 - 0.618 | 0.618 - 0.886 |
| 'TOTNN 3NN' | 1.272 - 2.618 | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.236 - 0.618 | 0.618 - 0.886 |
| 'TOTAL 4' | 1.618 - 2.618 | 1.128 - 2.618 | 0.382 - 0.786 | 1.128 - 1.272 |
| 'BG 1' | 2.618*min - 2.618*max | 0.382*min - 0.382*max | 0.128 - 0.886 | 1.0 *min - 1.0 *max |
| 'BG 2' | 2.237*min - 2.237*max | 0.447*min - 0.447*max | 0.128 - 0.886 | 1.0 *min - 1.0 *max |
| 'BG 3' | 2.0 *min - 2.0 *max | 0.5 *min - 0.5 *max | 0.128 - 0.886 | 1.0 *min - 1.0 *max |
| 'BG 4' | 1.618*min - 1.618*max | 0.618*min - 0.618*max | 0.128 - 0.886 | 1.0 *min - 1.0 *max |
| 'BG 5' | 1.414*min - 1.414*max | 0.707*min - 0.707*max | 0.128 - 0.886 | 1.0 *min - 1.0 *max |
| 'BG 6' | 1.272*min - 1.272*max | 0.786*min - 0.786*max | 0.128 - 0.886 | 1.0 *min - 1.0 *max |
| 'BG 7' | 1.171*min - 1.171*max | 0.854*min - 0.854*max | 0.128 - 0.886 | 1.0 *min - 1.0 *max |
| 'BG 8' | 1.128*min - 1.128*max | 0.886*min - 0.886*max | 0.128 - 0.886 | 1.0 *min - 1.0 *max |
|-------------------|------------------------|------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Swings
Minimum Swing Length: Minimum length used for the swing detection.
Maximum Swing Length: Maximum length used for the swing detection.
🔹 Patterns
Toggle Pattern Block
Toggle separate pattern in each Pattern Block
🔹 Tolerance
Fibonacci Ratio: Adds a percentage tolerance below/above the ratio when only one ratio applies, creating two limits.
Triangle Area Ratio: Filters patterns based on the ratio of the smallest triangle to the largest triangle.
🔹 Display
Labels: Display Pattern Names, Arrows or nothing
Patterns: Display or not
Last Line: Display previous C-D line when updated
🔹 Style
Colors: Pattern Lines/Names/Arrows - background color of patterns
Text Size: Text Size of Pattern Names/Arrows
🔹 Calculation
Calculated Bars: Allows the usage of fewer bars for performance/speed improvement
Correlation Clusters [LuxAlgo]The Correlation Clusters is a machine learning tool that allows traders to group sets of tickers with a similar correlation coefficient to a user-set reference ticker.
The tool calculates the correlation coefficients between 10 user-set tickers and a user-set reference ticker, with the possibility of forming up to 10 clusters.
🔶 USAGE
Applying clustering methods to correlation analysis allows traders to quickly identify which set of tickers are correlated with a reference ticker, rather than having to look at them one by one or using a more tedious approach such as correlation matrices.
Tickers belonging to a cluster may also be more likely to have a higher mutual correlation. The image above shows the detailed parts of the Correlation Clusters tool.
The correlation coefficient between two assets allows traders to see how these assets behave in relation to each other. It can take values between +1.0 and -1.0 with the following meaning
Value near +1.0: Both assets behave in a similar way, moving up or down at the same time
Value close to 0.0: No correlation, both assets behave independently
Value near -1.0: Both assets have opposite behavior when one moves up the other moves down, and vice versa
There is a wide range of trading strategies that make use of correlation coefficients between assets, some examples are:
Pair Trading: Traders may wish to take advantage of divergences in the price movements of highly positively correlated assets; even highly positively correlated assets do not always move in the same direction; when assets with a correlation close to +1.0 diverge in their behavior, traders may see this as an opportunity to buy one and sell the other in the expectation that the assets will return to the likely same price behavior.
Sector rotation: Traders may want to favor some sectors that are expected to perform in the next cycle, tracking the correlation between different sectors and between the sector and the overall market.
Diversification: Traders can aim to have a diversified portfolio of uncorrelated assets. From a risk management perspective, it is useful to know the correlation between the assets in your portfolio, if you hold equal positions in positively correlated assets, your risk is tilted in the same direction, so if the assets move against you, your risk is doubled. You can avoid this increased risk by choosing uncorrelated assets so that they move independently.
Hedging: Traders may want to hedge positions with correlated assets, from a hedging perspective, if you are long an asset, you can hedge going long a negatively correlated asset or going short a positively correlated asset.
Grouping different assets with similar behavior can be very helpful to traders to avoid over-exposure to those assets, traders may have multiple long positions on different assets as a way of minimizing overall risk when in reality if those assets are part of the same cluster traders are maximizing their risk by taking positions on assets with the same behavior.
As a rule of thumb, a trader can minimize risk via diversification by taking positions on assets with no correlations, the proposed tool can effectively show a set of uncorrelated candidates from the reference ticker if one or more clusters centroids are located near 0.
🔶 DETAILS
K-means clustering is a popular machine-learning algorithm that finds observations in a data set that are similar to each other and places them in a group.
The process starts by randomly assigning each data point to an initial group and calculating the centroid for each. A centroid is the center of the group. K-means clustering forms the groups in such a way that the variances between the data points and the centroid of the cluster are minimized.
It's an unsupervised method because it starts without labels and then forms and labels groups itself.
🔹 Execution Window
In the image above we can see how different execution windows provide different correlation coefficients, informing traders of the different behavior of the same assets over different time periods.
Users can filter the data used to calculate correlations by number of bars, by time, or not at all, using all available data. For example, if the chart timeframe is 15m, traders may want to know how different assets behave over the last 7 days (one week), or for an hourly chart set an execution window of one month, or one year for a daily chart. The default setting is to use data from the last 50 bars.
🔹 Clusters
On this graph, we can see different clusters for the same data. The clusters are identified by different colors and the dotted lines show the centroids of each cluster.
Traders can select up to 10 clusters, however, do note that selecting 10 clusters can lead to only 4 or 5 returned clusters, this is caused by the machine learning algorithm not detecting any more data points deviating from already detected clusters.
Traders can fine-tune the algorithm by changing the 'Cluster Threshold' and 'Max Iterations' settings, but if you are not familiar with them we advise you not to change these settings, the defaults can work fine for the application of this tool.
🔹 Correlations
Different correlations mean different behaviors respecting the same asset, as we can see in the chart above.
All correlations are found against the same asset, traders can use the chart ticker or manually set one of their choices from the settings panel. Then they can select the 10 tickers to be used to find the correlation coefficients, which can be useful to analyze how different types of assets behave against the same asset.
🔶 SETTINGS
Execution Window Mode: Choose how the tool collects data, filter data by number of bars, time, or no filtering at all, using all available data.
Execute on Last X Bars: Number of bars for data collection when the 'Bars' execution window mode is active.
Execute on Last: Time window for data collection when the `Time` execution window mode is active. These are full periods, so `Day` means the last 24 hours, `Week` means the last 7 days, and so on.
🔹 Clusters
Number of Clusters: Number of clusters to detect up to 10. Only clusters with data points are displayed.
Cluster Threshold: Number used to compare a new centroid within the same cluster. The lower the number, the more accurate the centroid will be.
Max Iterations: Maximum number of calculations to detect a cluster. A high value may lead to a timeout runtime error (loop takes too long).
🔹 Ticker of Reference
Use Chart Ticker as Reference: Enable/disable the use of the current chart ticker to get the correlation against all other tickers selected by the user.
Custom Ticker: Custom ticker to get the correlation against all the other tickers selected by the user.
🔹 Correlation Tickers
Select the 10 tickers for which you wish to obtain the correlation against the reference ticker.
🔹 Style
Text Size: Select the size of the text to be displayed.
Display Size: Select the size of the correlation chart to be displayed, up to 500 bars.
Box Height: Select the height of the boxes to be displayed. A high height will cause overlapping if the boxes are close together.
Clusters Colors: Choose a custom colour for each cluster.
Ichimoku Theories [LuxAlgo]The Ichimoku Theories indicator is the most complete Ichimoku tool you will ever need. Four tools combined into one to harness all the power of Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō.
This tool features the following concepts based on the work of Goichi Hosoda:
Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō: Original Ichimoku indicator with its five main lines and kumo.
Time Theory: automatic time cycle identification and forecasting to understand market timing.
Wave Theory: automatic wave identification to understand market structure.
Price Theory: automatic identification of developing N waves and possible price targets to understand future price behavior.
🔶 ICHIMOKU KINKŌ HYŌ
Ichimoku with lines only, Kumo only and both together
Let us start with the basics: the Ichimoku original indicator is a tool to understand the market, not to predict it, it is a trend-following tool, so it is best used in trending markets.
Ichimoku tells us what is happening in the market and what may happen next, the aim of the tool is to provide market understanding, not trading signals.
The tool is based on calculating the mid-point between the high and low of three pre-defined ranges as the equilibrium price for short (9 periods), medium (26 periods), and long (52 periods) time horizons:
Tenkan sen: middle point of the range of the last 9 candles
Kinjun sen: middle point of the range of the last 26 candles
Senkou span A: middle point between Tankan Sen and Kijun Sen, plotted 26 candles into the future
Senkou span B: midpoint of the range of the last 52 candles, plotted 26 candles into the future
Chikou span: closing price plotted 26 candles into the past
Kumo: area between Senkou pans A and B (kumo means cloud in Japanese)
The most basic use of the tool is to use the Kumo as an area of possible support or resistance.
🔶 TIME THEORY
Current cycles and forecast
Time theory is a critical concept used to identify historical and current market cycles, and use these to forecast the next ones. This concept is based on the Kihon Suchi (translating to "Basic Numbers" in Japanese), these are 9 and 26, and from their combinations we obtain the following sequence:
9, 17, 26, 33, 42, 51, 65, 76, 129, 172, 200, 257
The main idea is that the market moves in cycles with periods set by the Kihon Suchi sequence.
When the cycle has the same exact periods, we obtain the Taito Suchi (translating to "Same Number" in Japanese).
This tool allows traders to identify historical and current market cycles and forecast the next one.
🔹 Time Cycle Identification
Presentation of 4 different modes: SWINGS, HIGHS, KINJUN, and WAVES .
The tool draws a horizontal line at the bottom of the chart showing the cycles detected and their size.
The following settings are used:
Time Cycle Mode: up to 7 different modes
Wave Cycle: Which wave to use when WAVE mode is selected, only active waves in the Wave Theory settings will be used.
Show Time Cycles: keep a cleaner chart by disabling cycles visualisation
Show last X time cycles: how many cycles to display
🔹 Time Cycle Forecast
Showcasing the two forecasting patterns: Kihon Suchi and Taito Suchi
The tool plots horizontal lines, a solid anchor line, and several dotted forecast lines.
The following settings are used:
Show time cycle forecast: to keep things clean
Forecast Pattern: comes in two flavors
Kihon Suchi plots a line from the anchor at each number in the Kihon Suchi sequence.
Taito Suchi plot lines from the anchor with the same size detected in the anchored cycle
Anchor forecast on last X time cycle: traders can place the anchor in any detected cycle
🔶 WAVE THEORY
All waves activated with overlapping
The main idea behind this theory is that markets move like waves in the sea, back and forth (making swing lows and highs). Understanding the current market structure is key to having realistic expectations of what the market may do next. The waves are divided into Simple and Complex.
The following settings are used:
Basic Waves: allows traders to activate waves I, V and N
Complex Waves: allows traders to activate waves P, Y and W
Overlapping waves: to avoid missing out on any of the waves activated
Show last X waves: how many waves will be displayed
🔹 Basic Waves
The three basic waves
The basic waves from which all waves are made are I, V, and N
I wave: one leg moves
V wave: two legs move, one against the other
N wave: Three legs move, push, pull back, and another push
🔹 Complex Waves
Three complex waves
There are other waves like
P wave: contracting market
Y wave: expanding market
W wave: double top or double bottom
🔶 PRICE THEORY
All targets for the current N wave with their calculations
This theory is based on identifying developing N waves and predicting potential price targets based on that developing wave.
The tool displays 4 basic targets (V, E, N, and NT) and 3 extended targets (2E and 3E) according to the calculations shown in the chart above. Traders can enable or disable each target in the settings panel.
🔶 USING EVERYTHING TOGETHER
Please DON'T do this. This is not how you use it
Now the real example:
Daily chart of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ1!) with our Ichimoku analysis
Time, waves, and price theories go together as one:
First, we identify the current time cycles and wave structure.
Then we forecast the next cycle and possible key price levels.
We identify a Taito Suchi with both legs of exactly 41 candles on each I wave, both together forming a V wave, the last two I waves are part of a developing N wave, and the time cycle of the first one is 191 candles. We forecast this cycle into the future and get 22nd April as a key date, so in 6 trading days (as of this writing) the market would have completed another Taito Suchi pattern if a new wave and time cycle starts. As we have a developing N wave we can see the potential price targets, the price is actually between the NT and V targets. We have a bullish Kumo and the price is touching it, if this Kumo provides enough support for the price to go further, the market could reach N or E targets.
So we have identified the cycle and wave, our expectations are that the current cycle is another Taito Suchi and the current wave is an N wave, the first I wave went for 191 candles, and we expect the second and third I waves together to amount to 191 candles, so in theory the N wave would complete in the next 6 trading days making a swing high. If this is indeed the case, the price could reach the V target (it is almost there) or even the N target if the bulls have the necessary strength.
We do not predict the future, we can only aim to understand the current market conditions and have future expectations of when (time), how (wave), and where (price) the market will make the next turning point where one side of the market overcomes the other (bulls vs bears).
To generate this chart, we change the following settings from the default ones:
Swing length: 64
Show lines: disabled
Forecast pattern: TAITO SUCHI
Anchor forecast: 2
Show last time cycles: 5
I WAVE: enabled
N WAVE: disabled
Show last waves: 5
🔶 SETTINGS
Show Swing Highs & Lows: Enable/Disable points on swing highs and swing lows.
Swing Length: Number of candles to confirm a swing high or swing low. A higher number detects larger swings.
🔹 Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō
Show Lines: Enable/Disable the 5 Ichimoku lines: Kijun sen, Tenkan sen, Senkou span A & B and Chikou Span.
Show Kumo: Enable/Disable the Kumo (cloud). The Kumo is formed by 2 lines: Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B.
Tenkan Sen Length: Number of candles for Tenkan Sen calculation.
Kinjun Sen Length: Number of candles for the Kijun Sen calculation.
Senkou Span B Length: Number of candles for Senkou Span B calculation.
Chikou & Senkou Offset: Number of candles for Chikou and Senkou Span calculation. Chikou Span is plotted in the past, and Senkou Span A & B in the future.
🔹 Time Theory
Show Time Cycle Forecast: Enable/Disable time cycle forecast vertical lines. Disable for better performance.
Forecast Pattern: Choose between two patterns: Kihon Suchi (basic numbers) or Taito Suchi (equal numbers).
Anchor forecast on last X time cycle: Number of time cycles in the past to anchor the time cycle forecast. The larger the number, the deeper in the past the anchor will be.
Time Cycle Mode: Choose from 7 time cycle detection modes: Tenkan Sen cross, Kijun Sen cross, Kumo change between bullish & bearish, swing highs only, swing lows only, both swing highs & lows and wave detection.
Wave Cycle: Choose which type of wave to detect from 6 different wave types when the time cycle mode is set to WAVES.
Show Time Cycles: Enable/Disable time cycle horizontal lines. Disable for better performance.
how last X time cycles: Maximum number of time cycles to display.
🔹 Wave Theory
Basic Waves: Enable/Disable the display of basic waves, all at once or one at a time. Disable for better performance.
Complex Waves: Enable/Disable complex wave display, all at once or one by one. Disable for better performance.
Overlapping Waves: Enable/Disable the display of waves ending on the same swing point.
Show last X waves: 'Maximum number of waves to display.
🔹 Price Theory
Basic Targets: Enable/Disable horizontal price target lines. Disable for better performance.
Extended Targets: Enable/Disable extended price target horizontal lines. Disable for better performance.
Supertrend Advance Pullback StrategyHandbook for the Supertrend Advance Strategy
1. Introduction
Purpose of the Handbook:
The main purpose of this handbook is to serve as a comprehensive guide for traders and investors who are looking to explore and harness the potential of the Supertrend Advance Strategy. In the rapidly changing financial market, having the right tools and strategies at one's disposal is crucial. Whether you're a beginner hoping to dive into the world of trading or a seasoned investor aiming to optimize and diversify your portfolio, this handbook offers the insights and methodologies you need. By the end of this guide, readers should have a clear understanding of how the Supertrend Advance Strategy works, its benefits, potential pitfalls, and practical application in various trading scenarios.
Overview of the Supertrend Advance Pullback Strategy:
At its core, the Supertrend Advance Strategy is an evolution of the popular Supertrend Indicator. Designed to generate buy and sell signals in trending markets, the Supertrend Indicator has been a favorite tool for many traders around the world. The Advance Strategy, however, builds upon this foundation by introducing enhanced mechanisms, filters, and methodologies to increase precision and reduce false signals.
1. Basic Concept:
The Supertrend Advance Strategy relies on a combination of price action and volatility to determine the potential trend direction. By assessing the average true range (ATR) in conjunction with specific price points, this strategy aims to highlight the potential starting and ending points of market trends.
2. Methodology:
Unlike the traditional Supertrend Indicator, which primarily focuses on closing prices and ATR, the Advance Strategy integrates other critical market variables, such as volume, momentum oscillators, and perhaps even fundamental data, to validate its signals. This multidimensional approach ensures that the generated signals are more reliable and are less prone to market noise.
3. Benefits:
One of the main benefits of the Supertrend Advance Strategy is its ability to filter out false breakouts and minor price fluctuations, which can often lead to premature exits or entries in the market. By waiting for a confluence of factors to align, traders using this advanced strategy can increase their chances of entering or exiting trades at optimal points.
4. Practical Applications:
The Supertrend Advance Strategy can be applied across various timeframes, from intraday trading to swing trading and even long-term investment scenarios. Furthermore, its flexible nature allows it to be tailored to different asset classes, be it stocks, commodities, forex, or cryptocurrencies.
In the subsequent sections of this handbook, we will delve deeper into the intricacies of this strategy, offering step-by-step guidelines on its application, case studies, and tips for maximizing its efficacy in the volatile world of trading.
As you journey through this handbook, we encourage you to approach the Supertrend Advance Strategy with an open mind, testing and tweaking it as per your personal trading style and risk appetite. The ultimate goal is not just to provide you with a new tool but to empower you with a holistic strategy that can enhance your trading endeavors.
2. Getting Started
Navigating the financial markets can be a daunting task without the right tools. This section is dedicated to helping you set up the Supertrend Advance Strategy on one of the most popular charting platforms, TradingView. By following the steps below, you'll be able to integrate this strategy into your charts and start leveraging its insights in no time.
Setting up on TradingView:
TradingView is a web-based platform that offers a wide range of charting tools, social networking, and market data. Before you can apply the Supertrend Advance Strategy, you'll first need a TradingView account. If you haven't set one up yet, here's how:
1. Account Creation:
• Visit TradingView's official website.
• Click on the "Join for free" or "Sign up" button.
• Follow the registration process, providing the necessary details and setting up your login credentials.
2. Navigating the Dashboard:
• Once logged in, you'll be taken to your dashboard. Here, you'll see a variety of tools, including watchlists, alerts, and the main charting window.
• To begin charting, type in the name or ticker of the asset you're interested in the search bar at the top.
3. Configuring Chart Settings:
• Before integrating the Supertrend Advance Strategy, familiarize yourself with the chart settings. This can be accessed by clicking the 'gear' icon on the top right of the chart window.
• Adjust the chart type, time intervals, and other display settings to your preference.
Integrating the Strategy into a Chart:
Now that you're set up on TradingView, it's time to integrate the Supertrend Advance Strategy.
1. Accessing the Pine Script Editor:
• Located at the top-center of your screen, you'll find the "Pine Editor" tab. Click on it.
• This is where custom strategies and indicators are scripted or imported.
2. Loading the Supertrend Advance Strategy Script:
• Depending on whether you have the script or need to find it, there are two paths:
• If you have the script: Copy the Supertrend Advance Strategy script, and then paste it into the Pine Editor.
• If searching for the script: Click on the “Indicators” icon (looks like a flame) at the top of your screen, and then type “Supertrend Advance Strategy” in the search bar. If available, it will show up in the list. Simply click to add it to your chart.
3. Applying the Strategy:
• After pasting or selecting the Supertrend Advance Strategy in the Pine Editor, click on the “Add to Chart” button located at the top of the editor. This will overlay the strategy onto your main chart window.
4. Configuring Strategy Settings:
• Once the strategy is on your chart, you'll notice a small settings ('gear') icon next to its name in the top-left of the chart window. Click on this to access settings.
• Here, you can adjust various parameters of the Supertrend Advance Strategy to better fit your trading style or the specific asset you're analyzing.
5. Interpreting Signals:
• With the strategy applied, you'll now see buy/sell signals represented on your chart. Take time to familiarize yourself with how these look and behave over various timeframes and market conditions.
3. Strategy Overview
What is the Supertrend Advance Strategy?
The Supertrend Advance Strategy is a refined version of the classic Supertrend Indicator, which was developed to aid traders in spotting market trends. The strategy utilizes a combination of data points, including average true range (ATR) and price momentum, to generate buy and sell signals.
In essence, the Supertrend Advance Strategy can be visualized as a line that moves with the price. When the price is above the Supertrend line, it indicates an uptrend and suggests a potential buy position. Conversely, when the price is below the Supertrend line, it hints at a downtrend, suggesting a potential selling point.
Strategy Goals and Objectives:
1. Trend Identification: At the core of the Supertrend Advance Strategy is the goal to efficiently and consistently identify prevailing market trends. By recognizing these trends, traders can position themselves to capitalize on price movements in their favor.
2. Reducing Noise: Financial markets are often inundated with 'noise' - short-term price fluctuations that can mislead traders. The Supertrend Advance Strategy aims to filter out this noise, allowing for clearer decision-making.
3. Enhancing Risk Management: With clear buy and sell signals, traders can set more precise stop-loss and take-profit points. This leads to better risk management and potentially improved profitability.
4. Versatility: While primarily used for trend identification, the strategy can be integrated with other technical tools and indicators to create a comprehensive trading system.
Type of Assets/Markets to Apply the Strategy:
1. Equities: The Supertrend Advance Strategy is highly popular among stock traders. Its ability to capture long-term trends makes it particularly useful for those trading individual stocks or equity indices.
2. Forex: Given the 24-hour nature of the Forex market and its propensity for trends, the Supertrend Advance Strategy is a valuable tool for currency traders.
3. Commodities: Whether it's gold, oil, or agricultural products, commodities often move in extended trends. The strategy can help in identifying and capitalizing on these movements.
4. Cryptocurrencies: The volatile nature of cryptocurrencies means they can have pronounced trends. The Supertrend Advance Strategy can aid crypto traders in navigating these often tumultuous waters.
5. Futures & Options: Traders and investors in derivative markets can utilize the strategy to make more informed decisions about contract entries and exits.
It's important to note that while the Supertrend Advance Strategy can be applied across various assets and markets, its effectiveness might vary based on market conditions, timeframe, and the specific characteristics of the asset in question. As always, it's recommended to use the strategy in conjunction with other analytical tools and to backtest its effectiveness in specific scenarios before committing to trades.
4. Input Settings
Understanding and correctly configuring input settings is crucial for optimizing the Supertrend Advance Strategy for any specific market or asset. These settings, when tweaked correctly, can drastically impact the strategy's performance.
Grouping Inputs:
Before diving into individual input settings, it's important to group similar inputs. Grouping can simplify the user interface, making it easier to adjust settings related to a specific function or indicator.
Strategy Choice:
This input allows traders to select from various strategies that incorporate the Supertrend indicator. Options might include "Supertrend with RSI," "Supertrend with MACD," etc. By choosing a strategy, the associated input settings for that strategy become available.
Supertrend Settings:
1. Multiplier: Typically, a default value of 3 is used. This multiplier is used in the ATR calculation. Increasing it makes the Supertrend line further from prices, while decreasing it brings the line closer.
2. Period: The number of bars used in the ATR calculation. A common default is 7.
EMA Settings (Exponential Moving Average):
1. Period: Defines the number of previous bars used to calculate the EMA. Common periods are 9, 21, 50, and 200.
2. Source: Allows traders to choose which price (Open, Close, High, Low) to use in the EMA calculation.
RSI Settings (Relative Strength Index):
1. Length: Determines how many periods are used for RSI calculation. The standard setting is 14.
2. Overbought Level: The threshold at which the asset is considered overbought, typically set at 70.
3. Oversold Level: The threshold at which the asset is considered oversold, often at 30.
MACD Settings (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
1. Short Period: The shorter EMA, usually set to 12.
2. Long Period: The longer EMA, commonly set to 26.
3. Signal Period: Defines the EMA of the MACD line, typically set at 9.
CCI Settings (Commodity Channel Index):
1. Period: The number of bars used in the CCI calculation, often set to 20.
2. Overbought Level: Typically set at +100, denoting overbought conditions.
3. Oversold Level: Usually set at -100, indicating oversold conditions.
SL/TP Settings (Stop Loss/Take Profit):
1. SL Multiplier: Defines the multiplier for the average true range (ATR) to set the stop loss.
2. TP Multiplier: Defines the multiplier for the average true range (ATR) to set the take profit.
Filtering Conditions:
This section allows traders to set conditions to filter out certain signals. For example, one might only want to take buy signals when the RSI is below 30, ensuring they buy during oversold conditions.
Trade Direction and Backtest Period:
1. Trade Direction: Allows traders to specify whether they want to take long trades, short trades, or both.
2. Backtest Period: Specifies the time range for backtesting the strategy. Traders can choose from options like 'Last 6 months,' 'Last 1 year,' etc.
It's essential to remember that while default settings are provided for many of these tools, optimal settings can vary based on the market, timeframe, and trading style. Always backtest new settings on historical data to gauge their potential efficacy.
5. Understanding Strategy Conditions
Developing an understanding of the conditions set within a trading strategy is essential for traders to maximize its potential. Here, we delve deep into the logic behind these conditions, using the Supertrend Advance Strategy as our focal point.
Basic Logic Behind Conditions:
Every strategy is built around a set of conditions that provide buy or sell signals. The conditions are based on mathematical or statistical methods and are rooted in the study of historical price data. The fundamental idea is to recognize patterns or behaviors that have been profitable in the past and might be profitable in the future.
Buy and Sell Conditions:
1. Buy Conditions: Usually formulated around bullish signals or indicators suggesting upward price momentum.
2. Sell Conditions: Centered on bearish signals or indicators indicating downward price momentum.
Simple Strategy:
The simple strategy could involve using just the Supertrend indicator. Here:
• Buy: When price closes above the Supertrend line.
• Sell: When price closes below the Supertrend line.
Pullback Strategy:
This strategy capitalizes on price retracements:
• Buy: When the price retraces to the Supertrend line after a bullish signal and is supported by another bullish indicator.
• Sell: When the price retraces to the Supertrend line after a bearish signal and is confirmed by another bearish indicator.
Indicators Used:
EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
• Logic: EMA gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to current price movements. A shorter-period EMA crossing above a longer-period EMA can be a bullish sign, while the opposite is bearish.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
• Logic: RSI measures the magnitude of recent price changes to analyze overbought or oversold conditions. Values above 70 are typically considered overbought, and values below 30 are considered oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
• Logic: MACD assesses the relationship between two EMAs of a security’s price. The MACD line crossing above the signal line can be a bullish signal, while crossing below can be bearish.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index):
• Logic: CCI compares a security's average price change with its average price variation. A CCI value above +100 may mean the price is overbought, while below -100 might signify an oversold condition.
And others...
As the strategy expands or contracts, more indicators might be added or removed. The crucial point is to understand the core logic behind each, ensuring they align with the strategy's objectives.
Logic Behind Each Indicator:
1. EMA: Emphasizes recent price movements; provides dynamic support and resistance levels.
2. RSI: Indicates overbought and oversold conditions based on recent price changes.
3. MACD: Showcases momentum and direction of a trend by comparing two EMAs.
4. CCI: Measures the difference between a security's price change and its average price change.
Understanding strategy conditions is not just about knowing when to buy or sell but also about comprehending the underlying market dynamics that those conditions represent. As you familiarize yourself with each condition and indicator, you'll be better prepared to adapt and evolve with the ever-changing financial markets.
6. Trade Execution and Management
Trade execution and management are crucial aspects of any trading strategy. Efficient execution can significantly impact profitability, while effective management can preserve capital during adverse market conditions. In this section, we'll explore the nuances of position entry, exit strategies, and various Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) methodologies within the Supertrend Advance Strategy.
Position Entry:
Effective trade entry revolves around:
1. Timing: Enter at a point where the risk-reward ratio is favorable. This often corresponds to confirmatory signals from multiple indicators.
2. Volume Analysis: Ensure there's adequate volume to support the movement. Volume can validate the strength of a signal.
3. Confirmation: Use multiple indicators or chart patterns to confirm the entry point. For instance, a buy signal from the Supertrend indicator can be confirmed with a bullish MACD crossover.
Position Exit Strategies:
A successful exit strategy will lock in profits and minimize losses. Here are some strategies:
1. Fixed Time Exit: Exiting after a predetermined period.
2. Percentage-based Profit Target: Exiting after a certain percentage gain.
3. Indicator-based Exit: Exiting when an indicator gives an opposing signal.
Percentage-based SL/TP:
• Stop Loss (SL): Set a fixed percentage below the entry price to limit potential losses.
• Example: A 2% SL on an entry at $100 would trigger a sell at $98.
• Take Profit (TP): Set a fixed percentage above the entry price to lock in gains.
• Example: A 5% TP on an entry at $100 would trigger a sell at $105.
Supertrend-based SL/TP:
• Stop Loss (SL): Position the SL at the Supertrend line. If the price breaches this line, it could indicate a trend reversal.
• Take Profit (TP): One could set the TP at a point where the Supertrend line flattens or turns, indicating a possible slowdown in momentum.
Swing high/low-based SL/TP:
• Stop Loss (SL): For a long position, set the SL just below the recent swing low. For a short position, set it just above the recent swing high.
• Take Profit (TP): For a long position, set the TP near a recent swing high or resistance. For a short position, near a swing low or support.
And other methods...
1. Trailing Stop Loss: This dynamic SL adjusts with the price movement, locking in profits as the trade moves in your favor.
2. Multiple Take Profits: Divide the position into segments and set multiple TP levels, securing profits in stages.
3. Opposite Signal Exit: Exit when another reliable indicator gives an opposite signal.
Trade execution and management are as much an art as they are a science. They require a blend of analytical skill, discipline, and intuition. Regularly reviewing and refining your strategies, especially in light of changing market conditions, is crucial to maintaining consistent trading performance.
7. Visual Representations
Visual tools are essential for traders, as they simplify complex data into an easily interpretable format. Properly analyzing and understanding the plots on a chart can provide actionable insights and a more intuitive grasp of market conditions. In this section, we’ll delve into various visual representations used in the Supertrend Advance Strategy and their significance.
Understanding Plots on the Chart:
Charts are the primary visual aids for traders. The arrangement of data points, lines, and colors on them tell a story about the market's past, present, and potential future moves.
1. Data Points: These represent individual price actions over a specific timeframe. For instance, a daily chart will have data points showing the opening, closing, high, and low prices for each day.
2. Colors: Used to indicate the nature of price movement. Commonly, green is used for bullish (upward) moves and red for bearish (downward) moves.
Trend Lines:
Trend lines are straight lines drawn on a chart that connect a series of price points. Their significance:
1. Uptrend Line: Drawn along the lows, representing support. A break below might indicate a trend reversal.
2. Downtrend Line: Drawn along the highs, indicating resistance. A break above might suggest the start of a bullish trend.
Filled Areas:
These represent a range between two values on a chart, usually shaded or colored. For instance:
1. Bollinger Bands: The area between the upper and lower band is filled, giving a visual representation of volatility.
2. Volume Profile: Can show a filled area representing the amount of trading activity at different price levels.
Stop Loss and Take Profit Lines:
These are horizontal lines representing pre-determined exit points for trades.
1. Stop Loss Line: Indicates the level at which a trade will be automatically closed to limit losses. Positioned according to the trader's risk tolerance.
2. Take Profit Line: Denotes the target level to lock in profits. Set according to potential resistance (for long trades) or support (for short trades) or other technical factors.
Trailing Stop Lines:
A trailing stop is a dynamic form of stop loss that moves with the price. On a chart:
1. For Long Trades: Starts below the entry price and moves up with the price but remains static if the price falls, ensuring profits are locked in.
2. For Short Trades: Starts above the entry price and moves down with the price but remains static if the price rises.
Visual representations offer traders a clear, organized view of market dynamics. Familiarity with these tools ensures that traders can quickly and accurately interpret chart data, leading to more informed decision-making. Always ensure that the visual aids used resonate with your trading style and strategy for the best results.
8. Backtesting
Backtesting is a fundamental process in strategy development, enabling traders to evaluate the efficacy of their strategy using historical data. It provides a snapshot of how the strategy would have performed in past market conditions, offering insights into its potential strengths and vulnerabilities. In this section, we'll explore the intricacies of setting up and analyzing backtest results and the caveats one must be aware of.
Setting Up Backtest Period:
1. Duration: Determine the timeframe for the backtest. It should be long enough to capture various market conditions (bullish, bearish, sideways). For instance, if you're testing a daily strategy, consider a period of several years.
2. Data Quality: Ensure the data source is reliable, offering high-resolution and clean data. This is vital to get accurate backtest results.
3. Segmentation: Instead of a continuous period, sometimes it's helpful to backtest over distinct market phases, like a particular bear or bull market, to see how the strategy holds up in different environments.
Analyzing Backtest Results:
1. Performance Metrics: Examine metrics like the total return, annualized return, maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and others to gauge the strategy's efficiency.
2. Win Rate: It's the ratio of winning trades to total trades. A high win rate doesn't always signify a good strategy; it should be evaluated in conjunction with other metrics.
3. Risk/Reward: Understand the average profit versus the average loss per trade. A strategy might have a low win rate but still be profitable if the average gain far exceeds the average loss.
4. Drawdown Analysis: Review the periods of losses the strategy could incur and how long it takes, on average, to recover.
9. Tips and Best Practices
Successful trading requires more than just knowing how a strategy works. It necessitates an understanding of when to apply it, how to adjust it to varying market conditions, and the wisdom to recognize and avoid common pitfalls. This section offers insightful tips and best practices to enhance the application of the Supertrend Advance Strategy.
When to Use the Strategy:
1. Market Conditions: Ideally, employ the Supertrend Advance Strategy during trending market conditions. This strategy thrives when there are clear upward or downward trends. It might be less effective during consolidative or sideways markets.
2. News Events: Be cautious around significant news events, as they can cause extreme volatility. It might be wise to avoid trading immediately before and after high-impact news.
3. Liquidity: Ensure you are trading in assets/markets with sufficient liquidity. High liquidity ensures that the price movements are more reflective of genuine market sentiment and not due to thin volume.
Adjusting Settings for Different Markets/Timeframes:
1. Markets: Each market (stocks, forex, commodities) has its own characteristics. It's essential to adjust the strategy's parameters to align with the market's volatility and liquidity.
2. Timeframes: Shorter timeframes (like 1-minute or 5-minute charts) tend to have more noise. You might need to adjust the settings to filter out false signals. Conversely, for longer timeframes (like daily or weekly charts), you might need to be more responsive to genuine trend changes.
3. Customization: Regularly review and tweak the strategy's settings. Periodic adjustments can ensure the strategy remains optimized for the current market conditions.
10. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Given the complexities and nuances of the Supertrend Advance Strategy, it's only natural for traders, both new and seasoned, to have questions. This section addresses some of the most commonly asked questions regarding the strategy.
1. What exactly is the Supertrend Advance Strategy?
The Supertrend Advance Strategy is an evolved version of the traditional Supertrend indicator. It's designed to provide clearer buy and sell signals by incorporating additional indicators like EMA, RSI, MACD, CCI, etc. The strategy aims to capitalize on market trends while minimizing false signals.
2. Can I use the Supertrend Advance Strategy for all asset types?
Yes, the strategy can be applied to various asset types like stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. However, it's crucial to adjust the settings accordingly to suit the specific characteristics and volatility of each asset type.
3. Is this strategy suitable for day trading?
Absolutely! The Supertrend Advance Strategy can be adjusted to suit various timeframes, making it versatile for both day trading and long-term trading. Remember to fine-tune the settings to align with the timeframe you're trading on.
4. How do I deal with false signals?
No strategy is immune to false signals. However, by combining the Supertrend with other indicators and adhering to strict risk management protocols, you can minimize the impact of false signals. Always use stop-loss orders and consider filtering trades with additional confirmation signals.
5. Do I need any prior trading experience to use this strategy?
While the Supertrend Advance Strategy is designed to be user-friendly, having a foundational understanding of trading and market analysis can greatly enhance your ability to employ the strategy effectively. If you're a beginner, consider pairing the strategy with further education and practice on demo accounts.
6. How often should I review and adjust the strategy settings?
There's no one-size-fits-all answer. Some traders adjust settings weekly, while others might do it monthly. The key is to remain responsive to changing market conditions. Regular backtesting can give insights into potential required adjustments.
7. Can the Supertrend Advance Strategy be automated?
Yes, many traders use algorithmic trading platforms to automate their strategies, including the Supertrend Advance Strategy. However, always monitor automated systems regularly to ensure they're operating as intended.
8. Are there any markets or conditions where the strategy shouldn't be used?
The strategy might generate more false signals in markets that are consolidative or range-bound. During significant news events or times of unexpected high volatility, it's advisable to tread with caution or stay out of the market.
9. How important is backtesting with this strategy?
Backtesting is crucial as it allows traders to understand how the strategy would have performed in the past, offering insights into potential profitability and areas of improvement. Always backtest any new setting or tweak before applying it to live trades.
10. What if the strategy isn't working for me?
No strategy guarantees consistent profits. If it's not working for you, consider reviewing your settings, seeking expert advice, or complementing the Supertrend Advance Strategy with other analysis methods. Remember, continuous learning and adaptation are the keys to trading success.
Other comments
Value of combining several indicators in this script and how they work together
Diversification of Signals: Just as diversifying an investment portfolio can reduce risk, using multiple indicators can offer varied perspectives on potential price movements. Each indicator can capture a different facet of the market, ensuring that traders are not overly reliant on a single data point.
Confirmation & Reduced False Signals: A common challenge with many indicators is the potential for false signals. By requiring confirmation from multiple indicators before acting, the chances of acting on a false signal can be significantly reduced.
Flexibility Across Market Conditions: Different indicators might perform better under different market conditions. For example, while moving averages might excel in trending markets, oscillators like RSI might be more useful during sideways or range-bound conditions. A mashup strategy can potentially adapt better to varying market scenarios.
Comprehensive Analysis: With multiple indicators, traders can gauge trend strength, momentum, volatility, and potential market reversals all at once, providing a holistic view of the market.
How do the different indicators in the Supertrend Advance Strategy work together?
Supertrend: This is primarily a trend-following indicator. It provides traders with buy and sell signals based on the volatility of the price. When combined with other indicators, it can filter out noise and give more weight to strong, confirmed trends.
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): EMA gives more weight to recent price data. It can be used to identify the direction and strength of a trend. When the price is above the EMA, it's generally considered bullish, and vice versa.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): An oscillator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. By cross-referencing with other indicators like EMA or MACD, traders can spot potential reversals or confirmations of a trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): This indicator identifies changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it can be a bullish sign, and when it crosses below, it can be bearish. Pairing MACD with Supertrend can provide dual confirmation of a trend.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index): Initially developed for commodities, CCI can indicate overbought or oversold conditions. It can be used in conjunction with other indicators to determine entry and exit points.
In essence, the synergy of these indicators provides a balanced, comprehensive approach to trading. Each indicator offers its unique lens into market conditions, and when they align, it can be a powerful indication of a trading opportunity. This combination not only reduces the potential drawbacks of each individual indicator but leverages their strengths, aiming for more consistent and informed trading decisions.
Backtesting and Default Settings
• This indicator has been optimized to be applied for 1 hour-charts. However, the underlying principles of this strategy are supply and demand in the financial markets and the strategy can be applied to all timeframes. Daytraders can use the 1min- or 5min charts, swing-traders can use the daily charts.
• This strategy has been designed to identify the most promising, highest probability entries and trades for each stock or other financial security.
• The combination of the qualifiers results in a highly selective strategy which only considers the most promising swing-trading entries. As a result, you will normally only find a low number of trades for each stock or other financial security per year in case you apply this strategy for the daily charts. Shorter timeframes will result in a higher number of trades / year.
• Consequently, traders need to apply this strategy for a full watchlist rather than just one financial security.
• Default properties: RSI on (length 14, RSI buy level 50, sell level 50), EMA, RSI, MACD on, type of strategy pullback, SL/TP type: ATR (length 10, factor 3), trade direction both, quantity 5, take profit swing hl 5.1, highest / lowest lookback 2, enable ATR trail (ATR length 10, SL ATR multiplier 1.4, TP multiplier 2.1, lookback = 4, trade direction = both).
Double Candle Trend Counter [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator counts the number of confirmed double candle trend scenarios on any given candlestick chart and displays the statistics in a table, which can be repositioned and resized at the user's discretion.
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Upper Candle Trends
• A higher high candle is one that closes with a higher high price than the high price of the preceding candle.
• A lower high candle is one that closes with a lower high price than the high price of the preceding candle.
• A double-top candle is one that closes with a high price that is equal to the high price of the preceding candle.
Lower Candle Trends
• A higher low candle is one that closes with a higher low price than the low price of the preceding candle.
• A lower low candle is one that closes with a lower low price than the low price of the preceding candle.
• A double-bottom candle is one that closes with a low price that is equal to the low price of the preceding candle.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Candle Trends
• A multi-part higher high trend begins with the formation of a new higher high and continues until a new lower high ends the trend.
• A multi-part lower high trend begins with the formation of a new lower high and continues until a new higher high ends the trend.
• A multi-part higher low trend begins with the formation of a new higher low and continues until a new lower low ends the trend.
• A multi-part lower low trend begins with the formation of a new lower low and continues until a new higher low ends the trend.
Double Candle Trends
• A double uptrend candle trend is formed when a candle closes with both a higher high and a higher low.
• A double downtrend candle trend is formed when a candle closes with both a lower high and a lower low.
Multi-Part Double Candle Trends
• A multi-part double uptrend candle trend begins with the formation of a new double uptrend candle trend and continues until a new lower high or lower low ends the trend.
• A multi-part double downtrend candle trend begins with the formation of a new double downtrend candle trend and continues until a new higher high or higher low ends the trend.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• Start Date
• End Date
• Position
• Text Size
• Show Plots
Table
The table is colour coded, consists of seven columns and, as many as, thirty-two rows. Blue cells denote the multi-part trend scenarios, green cells denote the corresponding double uptrend candle trend scenarios and red cells denote the corresponding double downtrend candle trend scenarios.
The multi-part double candle trend scenarios are listed in the first column with their corresponding total counts to the right, in the second and fifth columns. The last row in column one, displays the sample period which can be adjusted or hidden via indicator settings.
The third and sixth columns display the double candle trend scenarios as percentages of total 1-part double candle trends. And columns four and seven display the total double candle trend scenarios as percentages of the last, or preceding double candle trend part. For example 4-part double uptrend candle trends as percentages of 3-part double uptrend candle trends.
Plots
I have added plots as a visual aid to the double candle trend scenarios. Green up-arrows, with the number of the trend part, denote double uptrend candle trends. Red down-arrows, with the number of the trend part, denote double downtrend candle trends.
█ HOW TO USE
This indicator is intended for research purposes, strategy development and strategy optimisation. I hope it will be useful in helping to gain a better understanding of the underlying dynamics at play on any given market and timeframe.
It can, for example, give you an idea of whether the current double candle trend will continue or fail, based on the current trend scenario and what has happened in the past under similar circumstances. Such information can be useful when conducting top down analysis across multiple timeframes and making strategic decisions.
What you do with these statistics and how far you decide to take your research is entirely up to you, the possibilities are endless.
█ LIMITATIONS
Some higher timeframe candles on tickers with larger lookbacks such as the DXY , do not actually contain all the open, high, low and close (OHLC) data at the beginning of the chart. Instead, they use the close price for open, high and low prices. So, while we can determine whether the close price is higher or lower than the preceding close price, there is no way of knowing what actually happened intra-bar for these candles. And by default candles that close at the same price as the open price, will be counted as green. You can avoid this problem by utilising the sample period filter.
It is also worth noting that the sample size will be limited to your Trading View subscription plan. Premium users get 20,000 candles worth of data, pro+ and pro users get 10,000, and basic users get 5,000. If upgrading is currently not an option, you can always keep a rolling tally of the statistics in an excel spreadsheet or something of the like.
Upper and Lower Candle Trend Counter [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator counts the number of confirmed upper and lower candle trend scenarios on any given candlestick chart and displays the statistics in a table, which can be repositioned and resized at the user's discretion.
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Upper Candle Trends
• A higher high candle is one that closes with a higher high price than the high price of the preceding candle.
• A lower high candle is one that closes with a lower high price than the high price of the preceding candle.
• A double-top candle is one that closes with a high price that is equal to the high price of the preceding candle.
Lower Candle Trends
• A higher low candle is one that closes with a higher low price than the low price of the preceding candle.
• A lower low candle is one that closes with a lower low price than the low price of the preceding candle.
• A double-bottom candle is one that closes with a low price that is equal to the low price of the preceding candle.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Candle Trends
• A multi-part higher high trend begins with the formation of a new higher high and continues until a new lower high ends the trend.
• A multi-part lower high trend begins with the formation of a new lower high and continues until a new higher high ends the trend.
• A multi-part higher low trend begins with the formation of a new higher low and continues until a new lower low ends the trend.
• A multi-part lower low trend begins with the formation of a new lower low and continues until a new higher low ends the trend.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• Start Date
• End Date
• Position
• Text Size
Table
The table is colour coded, consists of seven columns and, as many as, sixty-two rows. Blue cells denote the multi-part trend scenarios, green cells denote the corresponding upper candle trend scenarios and red cells denote the corresponding lower candle trend scenarios.
The multi-part candle trend scenarios are listed in the first column with their corresponding total counts to the right, in the second and fifth columns. The last row in column one, displays the sample period which can be adjusted or hidden via indicator settings.
The third and sixth columns display the candle trend scenarios as percentages of total 1-part candle trends. And columns four and seven display the total candle trend scenarios as percentages of the last, or preceding candle trend part. For example 4-part higher high trends as a percentages of 3-part higher high trends. This offers more insight into what might happen next at any given point in time.
Plots
For a visual aid to this indicator please use in conjunction with my Upper Candle Trends and Lower Candle Trends indicators which can both be found on my profile page under scripts, or in community scripts under the same names.
Green up-arrows, with the number of the trend part, denote higher high trends when above bar and higher low trends when below bar. Red down-arrows, with the number of the trend part, denote lower high trends when above bar and lower low trends when below bar.
█ HOW TO USE
This is intended for research purposes, strategy development and strategy optimisation. I hope it will be useful in helping to gain a better understanding of the underlying dynamics at play on any given market and timeframe.
It can, for example, give you an idea of whether the current upper or lower candle trend will continue or fail, based on the current trend scenario and what has happened in the past under similar circumstances. Such information can be useful when conducting top down analysis across multiple timeframes and making strategic decisions.
What you do with these statistics and how far you decide to take your research is entirely up to you, the possibilities are endless.
█ LIMITATIONS
Some higher timeframe candles on tickers with larger lookbacks such as the DXY , do not actually contain all the open, high, low and close (OHLC) data at the beginning of the chart. Instead, they use the close price for open, high and low prices. So, while we can determine whether the close price is higher or lower than the preceding close price, there is no way of knowing what actually happened intra-bar for these candles. And by default candles that close at the same price as the open price, will be counted as green. You can avoid this problem by utilising the sample period filter.
It is also worth noting that the sample size will be limited to your Trading View subscription plan. Premium users get 20,000 candles worth of data, pro+ and pro users get 10,000, and basic users get 5,000. If upgrading is currently not an option, you can always keep a rolling tally of the statistics in an excel spreadsheet or something of the like.
Delta Volume Channels [LucF]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator displays on-chart visuals aimed at making the most of delta volume information. It can color bars and display two channels: one for delta volume, another calculated from the price levels of bars where delta volume divergences occur. Markers and alerts can also be configured using key conditions, and filtered in many different ways. The indicator caters to traders who prefer chart visuals over raw values. It will work on historical bars and in real time, using intrabar analysis to calculate delta volume in both conditions.
█ CONCEPTS
Delta Volume
The volume delta concept divides a bar's volume in "up" and "down" volumes. The delta is calculated by subtracting down volume from up volume. Many calculation techniques exist to isolate up and down volume within a bar. The simplest techniques use the polarity of interbar price changes to assign their volume to up or down slots, e.g., On Balance Volume or the Klinger Oscillator . Others such as Chaikin Money Flow use assumptions based on a bar's OHLC values. The most precise calculation method uses tick data and assigns the volume of each tick to the up or down slot depending on whether the transaction occurs at the bid or ask price. While this technique is ideal, it requires huge amounts of data on historical bars, which usually limits the historical depth of charts and the number of symbols for which tick data is available.
This indicator uses intrabar analysis to achieve a compromise between the simplest and most precise methods of calculating volume delta. In the context where historical tick data is not yet available on TradingView, intrabar analysis is the most precise technique to calculate volume delta on historical bars on our charts. TradingView's Volume Profile built-in indicators use it, as do the CVD - Cumulative Volume Delta Candles and CVD - Cumulative Volume Delta (Chart) indicators published from the TradingView account . My Volume Delta Columns Pro indicator also uses intrabar analysis. Other volume delta indicators such as my Realtime 5D Profile use realtime chart updates to achieve more precise volume delta calculations. Indicators of that type cannot be used on historical bars however; they only work in real time.
This is the logic I use to assign intrabar volume to up or down slots:
• If the intrabar's open and close values are different, their relative position is used.
• If the intrabar's open and close values are the same, the difference between the intrabar's close and the previous intrabar's close is used.
• As a last resort, when there is no movement during an intrabar and it closes at the same price as the previous intrabar, the last known polarity is used.
Once all intrabars making up a chart bar have been analyzed and the up or down property of each intrabar's volume determined, the up volumes are added and the down volumes subtracted. The resulting value is volume delta for that chart bar, which can be used as an estimate of the buying/selling pressure on an instrument.
Delta Volume Percent (DV%)
This value is the proportion that delta volume represents of the total intrabar volume in the chart bar. Note that on some symbols/timeframes, the total intrabar volume may differ from the chart's volume for a bar, but that will not affect our calculations since we use the total intrabar volume.
Delta Volume Channel
The DV channel is the space between two moving averages: the reference line and a DV%-weighted version of that reference. The reference line is a moving average of a type, source and length which you select. The DV%-weighted line uses the same settings, but it averages the DV%-weighted price source.
The weight applied to the source of the reference line is calculated from two values, which are multiplied: DV% and the relative size of the bar's volume in relation to previous bars. The effect of this is that DV% values on bars with higher total volume will carry greater weight than those with lesser volume.
The DV channel can be in one of four states, each having its corresponding color:
• Bull (teal): The DV%-weighted line is above the reference line.
• Strong bull (lime): The bull condition is fulfilled and the bar's close is above the reference line and both the reference and the DV%-weighted lines are rising.
• Bear (maroon): The DV%-weighted line is below the reference line.
• Strong bear (pink): The bear condition is fulfilled and the bar's close is below the reference line and both the reference and the DV%-weighted lines are falling.
Divergences
In the context of this indicator, a divergence is any bar where the slope of the reference line does not match that of the DV%-weighted line. No directional bias is assigned to divergences when they occur.
Divergence Channel
The divergence channel is the space between two levels (by default, the bar's low and high ) saved when divergences occur. When price has breached a channel and a new divergence occurs, a new channel is created. Until that new channel is breached, bars where additional divergences occur will expand the channel's levels if the bar's price points are outside the channel.
Prices breaches of the divergence channel will change its state. Divergence channels can be in one of five different states:
• Bull (teal): Price has breached the channel to the upside.
• Strong bull (lime): The bull condition is fulfilled and the DV channel is in the strong bull state.
• Bear (maroon): Price has breached the channel to the downside.
• Strong bear (pink): The bear condition is fulfilled and the DV channel is in the strong bear state.
• Neutral (gray): The channel has not been breached.
█ HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
Load the indicator on an active chart (see here if you don't know how).
The default configuration displays:
• The DV channel, without the reference or DV%-weighted lines.
• The Divergence channel, without its level lines.
• Bar colors using the state of the DV channel.
The default settings use an Arnaud-Legoux moving average on the close and a length of 20 bars. The DV%-weighted version of it uses a combination of DV% and relative volume to calculate the ultimate weight applied to the reference. The DV%-weighted line is capped to 5 standard deviations of the reference. The lower timeframe used to access intrabars automatically adjusts to the chart's timeframe and achieves optimal balance between the number of intrabars inspected in each chart bar, and the number of chart bars covered by the script's calculations.
The Divergence channel's levels are determined using the high and low of the bars where divergences occur. Breaches of the channel require a bar's low to move above the top of the channel, and the bar's high to move below the channel's bottom.
No markers appear on the chart; if you want to create alerts from this script, you will need first to define the conditions that will trigger the markers, then create the alert, which will trigger on those same conditions.
To learn more about how to use this indicator, you must understand the concepts it uses and the information it displays, which requires reading this description. There are no videos to explain it.
█ FEATURES
The script's inputs are divided in four sections: "DV channel", "Divergence channel", "Other Visuals" and "Marker/Alert Conditions". The first setting is the selection method used to determine the intrabar precision, i.e., how many lower timeframe bars (intrabars) are examined in each chart bar. The more intrabars you analyze, the more precise the calculation of DV% results will be, but the less chart coverage can be covered by the script's calculations.
DV Channel
Here, you control the visibility and colors of the reference line, its weighted version, and the DV channel between them.
You also specify what type of moving average you want to use as a reference line, its source and length. This acts as the DV channel's baseline. The DV%-weighted line is also a moving average of the same type and length as the reference line, except that it will be calculated from the DV%-weighted source used in the reference line. By default, the DV%-weighted line is capped to five standard deviations of the reference line. You can change that value here. This section is also where you can disable the relative volume component of the weight.
Divergence Channel
This is where you control the appearance of the divergence channel and the key price values used in determining the channel's levels and breaching conditions. These choices have an impact on the behavior of the channel. More generous level prices like the default low and high selection will produce more conservative channels, as will the default choice for breach prices.
In this section, you can also enable a mode where an attempt is made to estimate the channel's bias before price breaches the channel. When it is enabled, successive increases/decreases of the channel's top and bottom levels are counted as new divergences occur. When one count is greater than the other, a bull/bear bias is inferred from it.
Other Visuals
You specify here:
• The method used to color chart bars, if you choose to do so.
• The display of a mark appearing above or below bars when a divergence occurs.
• If you want raw values to appear in tooltips when you hover above chart bars. The default setting does not display them, which makes the script faster.
• If you want to display an information box which by default appears in the lower left of the chart.
It shows which lower timeframe is used for intrabars, and the average number of intrabars per chart bar.
Marker/Alert Conditions
Here, you specify the conditions that will trigger up or down markers. The trigger conditions can include a combination of state transitions of the DV and the divergence channels. The triggering conditions can be filtered using a variety of conditions.
Configuring the marker conditions is necessary before creating an alert from this script, as the alert will use the marker conditions to trigger.
Markers only appear on bar closes, so they will not repaint. Keep in mind, when looking at markers on historical bars, that they are positioned on the bar when it closes — NOT when it opens.
Raw values
The raw values calculated by this script can be inspected using a tooltip and the Data Window. The tooltip is visible when you hover over the top of chart bars. It will display on the last 500 bars of the chart, and shows the values of DV, DV%, the combined weight, and the intermediary values used to calculate them.
█ INTERPRETATION
The aim of the DV channel is to provide a visual representation of the buying/selling pressure calculated using delta volume. The simplest characteristic of the channel is its bull/bear state. One can then distinguish between its bull and strong bull states, as transitions from strong bull to bull states will generally happen when buyers are losing steam. While one should not infer a reversal from such transitions, they can be a good place to tighten stops. Only time will tell if a reversal will occur. One or more divergences will often occur before reversals.
The nature of the divergence channel's design makes it particularly adept at identifying consolidation areas if its settings are kept on the conservative side. A gray divergence channel should usually be considered a no-trade zone. More adventurous traders can use the DV channel to orient their trade entries if they accept the risk of trading in a neutral divergence channel, which by definition will not have been breached by price.
If your charts are already busy with other stuff you want to hold on to, you could consider using only the chart bar coloring component of this indicator:
At its simplest, one way to use this indicator would be to look for overlaps of the strong bull/bear colors in both the DV channel and a divergence channel, as these identify points where price is breaching the divergence channel when buy/sell pressure is consistent with the direction of the breach. I have highlighted all those points in the chart below. Not all of them would have produced profitable trades, but nothing is perfect in the markets. Also, keep in mind that the circles identify the visual you would be looking for — not the trade's entry level.
█ LIMITATIONS
• The script will not work on symbols where no volume is available. An error will appear when that is the case.
• Because a maximum of 100K intrabars can be analyzed by a script, a compromise is necessary between the number of intrabars analyzed per chart bar
and chart coverage. The more intrabars you analyze per chart bar, the less coverage you will obtain.
The setting of the "Intrabar precision" field in the "DV channel" section of the script's inputs
is where you control how the lower timeframe is calculated from the chart's timeframe.
█ NOTES
Volume Quality
If you use volume, it's important to understand its nature and quality, as it varies with sectors and instruments. My Volume X-ray indicator is one way you can appraise the quality of an instrument's intraday volume.
For Pine Script™ Coders
• This script uses the new overload of the fill() function which now makes it possible to do vertical gradients in Pine. I use it for both channels displayed by this script.
• I use the new arguments for plot() 's `display` parameter to control where the script plots some of its values,
namely those I only want to appear in the script's status line and in the Data Window.
• I wrote my script using the revised recommendations in the Style Guide from the Pine v5 User Manual.
█ THANKS
To PineCoders . I have used their lower_tf library in this script, to manage the calculation of the LTF and intrabar stats, and their Time library to convert a timeframe in seconds to a printable form for its display in the Information box.
To TradingView's Pine Script™ team. Their innovations and improvements, big and small, constantly expand the boundaries of the language. What this script does would not have been possible just a few months back.
And finally, thanks to all the users of my scripts who take the time to comment on my publications and suggest improvements. I do not reply to all but I do read your comments and do my best to implement your suggestions with the limited time that I have.
STD-Filterd, R-squared Adaptive T3 w/ Dynamic Zones [Loxx]STD-Filterd, R-squared Adaptive T3 w/ Dynamic Zones is a standard deviation filtered R-squared Adaptive T3 moving average with dynamic zones.
What is the T3 moving average?
Better Moving Averages Tim Tillson
November 1, 1998
Tim Tillson is a software project manager at Hewlett-Packard, with degrees in Mathematics and Computer Science. He has privately traded options and equities for 15 years.
Introduction
"Digital filtering includes the process of smoothing, predicting, differentiating, integrating, separation of signals, and removal of noise from a signal. Thus many people who do such things are actually using digital filters without realizing that they are; being unacquainted with the theory, they neither understand what they have done nor the possibilities of what they might have done."
This quote from R. W. Hamming applies to the vast majority of indicators in technical analysis . Moving averages, be they simple, weighted, or exponential, are lowpass filters; low frequency components in the signal pass through with little attenuation, while high frequencies are severely reduced.
"Oscillator" type indicators (such as MACD , Momentum, Relative Strength Index ) are another type of digital filter called a differentiator.
Tushar Chande has observed that many popular oscillators are highly correlated, which is sensible because they are trying to measure the rate of change of the underlying time series, i.e., are trying to be the first and second derivatives we all learned about in Calculus.
We use moving averages (lowpass filters) in technical analysis to remove the random noise from a time series, to discern the underlying trend or to determine prices at which we will take action. A perfect moving average would have two attributes:
It would be smooth, not sensitive to random noise in the underlying time series. Another way of saying this is that its derivative would not spuriously alternate between positive and negative values.
It would not lag behind the time series it is computed from. Lag, of course, produces late buy or sell signals that kill profits.
The only way one can compute a perfect moving average is to have knowledge of the future, and if we had that, we would buy one lottery ticket a week rather than trade!
Having said this, we can still improve on the conventional simple, weighted, or exponential moving averages. Here's how:
Two Interesting Moving Averages
We will examine two benchmark moving averages based on Linear Regression analysis.
In both cases, a Linear Regression line of length n is fitted to price data.
I call the first moving average ILRS, which stands for Integral of Linear Regression Slope. One simply integrates the slope of a linear regression line as it is successively fitted in a moving window of length n across the data, with the constant of integration being a simple moving average of the first n points. Put another way, the derivative of ILRS is the linear regression slope. Note that ILRS is not the same as a SMA ( simple moving average ) of length n, which is actually the midpoint of the linear regression line as it moves across the data.
We can measure the lag of moving averages with respect to a linear trend by computing how they behave when the input is a line with unit slope. Both SMA (n) and ILRS(n) have lag of n/2, but ILRS is much smoother than SMA .
Our second benchmark moving average is well known, called EPMA or End Point Moving Average. It is the endpoint of the linear regression line of length n as it is fitted across the data. EPMA hugs the data more closely than a simple or exponential moving average of the same length. The price we pay for this is that it is much noisier (less smooth) than ILRS, and it also has the annoying property that it overshoots the data when linear trends are present.
However, EPMA has a lag of 0 with respect to linear input! This makes sense because a linear regression line will fit linear input perfectly, and the endpoint of the LR line will be on the input line.
These two moving averages frame the tradeoffs that we are facing. On one extreme we have ILRS, which is very smooth and has considerable phase lag. EPMA has 0 phase lag, but is too noisy and overshoots. We would like to construct a better moving average which is as smooth as ILRS, but runs closer to where EPMA lies, without the overshoot.
A easy way to attempt this is to split the difference, i.e. use (ILRS(n)+EPMA(n))/2. This will give us a moving average (call it IE /2) which runs in between the two, has phase lag of n/4 but still inherits considerable noise from EPMA. IE /2 is inspirational, however. Can we build something that is comparable, but smoother? Figure 1 shows ILRS, EPMA, and IE /2.
Filter Techniques
Any thoughtful student of filter theory (or resolute experimenter) will have noticed that you can improve the smoothness of a filter by running it through itself multiple times, at the cost of increasing phase lag.
There is a complementary technique (called twicing by J.W. Tukey) which can be used to improve phase lag. If L stands for the operation of running data through a low pass filter, then twicing can be described by:
L' = L(time series) + L(time series - L(time series))
That is, we add a moving average of the difference between the input and the moving average to the moving average. This is algebraically equivalent to:
2L-L(L)
This is the Double Exponential Moving Average or DEMA , popularized by Patrick Mulloy in TASAC (January/February 1994).
In our taxonomy, DEMA has some phase lag (although it exponentially approaches 0) and is somewhat noisy, comparable to IE /2 indicator.
We will use these two techniques to construct our better moving average, after we explore the first one a little more closely.
Fixing Overshoot
An n-day EMA has smoothing constant alpha=2/(n+1) and a lag of (n-1)/2.
Thus EMA (3) has lag 1, and EMA (11) has lag 5. Figure 2 shows that, if I am willing to incur 5 days of lag, I get a smoother moving average if I run EMA (3) through itself 5 times than if I just take EMA (11) once.
This suggests that if EPMA and DEMA have 0 or low lag, why not run fast versions (eg DEMA (3)) through themselves many times to achieve a smooth result? The problem is that multiple runs though these filters increase their tendency to overshoot the data, giving an unusable result. This is because the amplitude response of DEMA and EPMA is greater than 1 at certain frequencies, giving a gain of much greater than 1 at these frequencies when run though themselves multiple times. Figure 3 shows DEMA (7) and EPMA(7) run through themselves 3 times. DEMA^3 has serious overshoot, and EPMA^3 is terrible.
The solution to the overshoot problem is to recall what we are doing with twicing:
DEMA (n) = EMA (n) + EMA (time series - EMA (n))
The second term is adding, in effect, a smooth version of the derivative to the EMA to achieve DEMA . The derivative term determines how hot the moving average's response to linear trends will be. We need to simply turn down the volume to achieve our basic building block:
EMA (n) + EMA (time series - EMA (n))*.7;
This is algebraically the same as:
EMA (n)*1.7-EMA( EMA (n))*.7;
I have chosen .7 as my volume factor, but the general formula (which I call "Generalized Dema") is:
GD (n,v) = EMA (n)*(1+v)-EMA( EMA (n))*v,
Where v ranges between 0 and 1. When v=0, GD is just an EMA , and when v=1, GD is DEMA . In between, GD is a cooler DEMA . By using a value for v less than 1 (I like .7), we cure the multiple DEMA overshoot problem, at the cost of accepting some additional phase delay. Now we can run GD through itself multiple times to define a new, smoother moving average T3 that does not overshoot the data:
T3(n) = GD ( GD ( GD (n)))
In filter theory parlance, T3 is a six-pole non-linear Kalman filter. Kalman filters are ones which use the error (in this case (time series - EMA (n)) to correct themselves. In Technical Analysis , these are called Adaptive Moving Averages; they track the time series more aggressively when it is making large moves.
What is R-squared Adaptive?
One tool available in forecasting the trendiness of the breakout is the coefficient of determination ( R-squared ), a statistical measurement.
The R-squared indicates linear strength between the security's price (the Y - axis) and time (the X - axis). The R-squared is the percentage of squared error that the linear regression can eliminate if it were used as the predictor instead of the mean value. If the R-squared were 0.99, then the linear regression would eliminate 99% of the error for prediction versus predicting closing prices using a simple moving average .
R-squared is used here to derive a T3 factor used to modify price before passing price through a six-pole non-linear Kalman filter.
What are Dynamic Zones?
As explained in "Stocks & Commodities V15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph .D., and David Stendahl"
Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’ s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator.
One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading lev- els. However, these oscillator- driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem.
Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system.
An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every value of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader.
To better understand dynamic zones, let's first describe them mathematically and then explain their use. The dynamic zones definition:
Find V such that:
For dynamic zone buy: P{X <= V}=P1
For dynamic zone sell: P{X >= V}=P2
where P1 and P2 are the probabilities set by the trader, X is the value of the indicator for the selected period and V represents the value of the dynamic zone.
The probability input P1 and P2 can be adjusted by the trader to encompass as much or as little data as the trader would like. The smaller the probability, the fewer data values above and below the dynamic zones. This translates into a wider range between the buy and sell zones. If a 10% probability is used for P1 and P2, only those data values that make up the top 10% and bottom 10% for an indicator are used in the construction of the zones. Of the values, 80% will fall between the two extreme levels. Because dynamic zone levels are penetrated so infrequently, when this happens, traders know that the market has truly moved into overbought or oversold territory.
Calculating the Dynamic Zones
The algorithm for the dynamic zones is a series of steps. First, decide the value of the lookback period t. Next, decide the value of the probability Pbuy for buy zone and value of the probability Psell for the sell zone.
For i=1, to the last lookback period, build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. Then find the value Vi1 such that the probability of the price less than or equal to Vi1 during the lookback period i is equal to Pbuy. Find the value Vi2 such that the probability of the price greater or equal to Vi2 during the lookback period i is equal to Psell. The sequence of Vi1 for all periods gives the buy zone. The sequence of Vi2 for all periods gives the sell zone.
In the algorithm description, we have: Build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. The distribution here is empirical namely, how many times a given value of x appeared during the lookback period. The problem is to find such x that the probability of a price being greater or equal to x will be equal to a probability selected by the user. Probability is the area under the distribution curve. The task is to find such value of x that the area under the distribution curve to the right of x will be equal to the probability selected by the user. That x is the dynamic zone.
Included:
Bar coloring
Signals
Alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Adaptivity: Measures of Dominant Cycles and Price Trend [Loxx]Adaptivity: Measures of Dominant Cycles and Price Trend is an indicator that outputs adaptive lengths using various methods for dominant cycle and price trend timeframe adaptivity. While the information output from this indicator might be useful for the average trader in one off circumstances, this indicator is really meant for those need a quick comparison of dynamic length outputs who wish to fine turn algorithms and/or create adaptive indicators.
This indicator compares adaptive output lengths of all publicly known adaptive measures. Additional adaptive measures will be added as they are discovered and made public.
The first released of this indicator includes 6 measures. An additional three measures will be added with updates. Please check back regularly for new measures.
Ehers:
Autocorrelation Periodogram
Band-pass
Instantaneous Cycle
Hilbert Transformer
Dual Differentiator
Phase Accumulation (future release)
Homodyne (future release)
Jurik:
Composite Fractal Behavior (CFB)
Adam White:
Veritical Horizontal Filter (VHF) (future release)
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman's adaptive moving average (KAMA) and Tushar Chande's variable index dynamic average (VIDYA) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index (RSI), commodity channel index (CCI), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
What is this Hilbert Transformer?
An analytic signal allows for time-variable parameters and is a generalization of the phasor concept, which is restricted to time-invariant amplitude, phase, and frequency. The analytic representation of a real-valued function or signal facilitates many mathematical manipulations of the signal. For example, computing the phase of a signal or the power in the wave is much simpler using analytic signals.
The Hilbert transformer is the technique to create an analytic signal from a real one. The conventional Hilbert transformer is theoretically an infinite-length FIR filter. Even when the filter length is truncated to a useful but finite length, the induced lag is far too large to make the transformer useful for trading.
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, pages 186-187:
"I want to emphasize that the only reason for including this section is for completeness. Unless you are interested in research, I suggest you skip this section entirely. To further emphasize my point, do not use the code for trading. A vastly superior approach to compute the dominant cycle in the price data is the autocorrelation periodogram. The code is included because the reader may be able to capitalize on the algorithms in a way that I do not see. All the algorithms encapsulated in the code operate reasonably well on theoretical waveforms that have no noise component. My conjecture at this time is that the sample-to-sample noise simply swamps the computation of the rate change of phase, and therefore the resulting calculations to find the dominant cycle are basically worthless.The imaginary component of the Hilbert transformer cannot be smoothed as was done in the Hilbert transformer indicator because the smoothing destroys the orthogonality of the imaginary component."
What is the Dual Differentiator, a subset of Hilbert Transformer?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 187:
"The first algorithm to compute the dominant cycle is called the dual differentiator. In this case, the phase angle is computed from the analytic signal as the arctangent of the ratio of the imaginary component to the real component. Further, the angular frequency is defined as the rate change of phase. We can use these facts to derive the cycle period."
What is the Phase Accumulation, a subset of Hilbert Transformer?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 189:
"The next algorithm to compute the dominant cycle is the phase accumulation method. The phase accumulation method of computing the dominant cycle is perhaps the easiest to comprehend. In this technique, we measure the phase at each sample by taking the arctangent of the ratio of the quadrature component to the in-phase component. A delta phase is generated by taking the difference of the phase between successive samples. At each sample we can then look backwards, adding up the delta phases.When the sum of the delta phases reaches 360 degrees, we must have passed through one full cycle, on average.The process is repeated for each new sample.
The phase accumulation method of cycle measurement always uses one full cycle's worth of historical data.This is both an advantage and a disadvantage.The advantage is the lag in obtaining the answer scales directly with the cycle period.That is, the measurement of a short cycle period has less lag than the measurement of a longer cycle period. However, the number of samples used in making the measurement means the averaging period is variable with cycle period. longer averaging reduces the noise level compared to the signal.Therefore, shorter cycle periods necessarily have a higher out- put signal-to-noise ratio."
What is the Homodyne, a subset of Hilbert Transformer?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 192:
"The third algorithm for computing the dominant cycle is the homodyne approach. Homodyne means the signal is multiplied by itself. More precisely, we want to multiply the signal of the current bar with the complex value of the signal one bar ago. The complex conjugate is, by definition, a complex number whose sign of the imaginary component has been reversed."
What is the Instantaneous Cycle?
The Instantaneous Cycle Period Measurement was authored by John Ehlers; it is built upon his Hilbert Transform Indicator.
From his Ehlers' book Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures: Cutting-Edge DSP Technology to Improve Your Trading by John F. Ehlers, 2004, page 107:
"It is obvious that cycles exist in the market. They can be found on any chart by the most casual observer. What is not so clear is how to identify those cycles in real time and how to take advantage of their existence. When Welles Wilder first introduced the relative strength index (rsi), I was curious as to why he selected 14 bars as the basis of his calculations. I reasoned that if i knew the correct market conditions, then i could make indicators such as the rsi adaptive to those conditions. Cycles were the answer. I knew cycles could be measured. Once i had the cyclic measurement, a host of automatically adaptive indicators could follow.
Measurement of market cycles is not easy. The signal-to-noise ratio is often very low, making measurement difficult even using a good measurement technique. Additionally, the measurements theoretically involve simultaneously solving a triple infinity of parameter values. The parameters required for the general solutions were frequency, amplitude, and phase. Some standard engineering tools, like fast fourier transforms (ffs), are simply not appropriate for measuring market cycles because ffts cannot simultaneously meet the stationarity constraints and produce results with reasonable resolution. Therefore i introduced maximum entropy spectral analysis (mesa) for the measurement of market cycles. This approach, originally developed to interpret seismographic information for oil exploration, produces high-resolution outputs with an exceptionally short amount of information. A short data length improves the probability of having nearly stationary data. Stationary data means that frequency and amplitude are constant over the length of the data. I noticed over the years that the cycles were ephemeral. Their periods would be continuously increasing and decreasing. Their amplitudes also were changing, giving variable signal-to-noise ratio conditions. Although all this is going on with the cyclic components, the enduring characteristic is that generally only one tradable cycle at a time is present for the data set being used. I prefer the term dominant cycle to denote that one component. The assumption that there is only one cycle in the data collapses the difficulty of the measurement process dramatically."
What is the Band-pass Cycle?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 47:
"Perhaps the least appreciated and most underutilized filter in technical analysis is the band-pass filter. The band-pass filter simultaneously diminishes the amplitude at low frequencies, qualifying it as a detrender, and diminishes the amplitude at high frequencies, qualifying it as a data smoother. It passes only those frequency components from input to output in which the trader is interested. The filtering produced by a band-pass filter is superior because the rejection in the stop bands is related to its bandwidth. The degree of rejection of undesired frequency components is called selectivity. The band-stop filter is the dual of the band-pass filter. It rejects a band of frequency components as a notch at the output and passes all other frequency components virtually unattenuated. Since the bandwidth of the deep rejection in the notch is relatively narrow and since the spectrum of market cycles is relatively broad due to systemic noise, the band-stop filter has little application in trading."
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 59:
"The band-pass filter can be used as a relatively simple measurement of the dominant cycle. A cycle is complete when the waveform crosses zero two times from the last zero crossing. Therefore, each successive zero crossing of the indicator marks a half cycle period. We can establish the dominant cycle period as twice the spacing between successive zero crossings."
What is Composite Fractal Behavior (CFB)?
All around you mechanisms adjust themselves to their environment. From simple thermostats that react to air temperature to computer chips in modern cars that respond to changes in engine temperature, r.p.m.'s, torque, and throttle position. It was only a matter of time before fast desktop computers applied the mathematics of self-adjustment to systems that trade the financial markets.
Unlike basic systems with fixed formulas, an adaptive system adjusts its own equations. For example, start with a basic channel breakout system that uses the highest closing price of the last N bars as a threshold for detecting breakouts on the up side. An adaptive and improved version of this system would adjust N according to market conditions, such as momentum, price volatility or acceleration.
Since many systems are based directly or indirectly on cycles, another useful measure of market condition is the periodic length of a price chart's dominant cycle, (DC), that cycle with the greatest influence on price action.
The utility of this new DC measure was noted by author Murray Ruggiero in the January '96 issue of Futures Magazine. In it. Mr. Ruggiero used it to adaptive adjust the value of N in a channel breakout system. He then simulated trading 15 years of D-Mark futures in order to compare its performance to a similar system that had a fixed optimal value of N. The adaptive version produced 20% more profit!
This DC index utilized the popular MESA algorithm (a formulation by John Ehlers adapted from Burg's maximum entropy algorithm, MEM). Unfortunately, the DC approach is problematic when the market has no real dominant cycle momentum, because the mathematics will produce a value whether or not one actually exists! Therefore, we developed a proprietary indicator that does not presuppose the presence of market cycles. It's called CFB (Composite Fractal Behavior) and it works well whether or not the market is cyclic.
CFB examines price action for a particular fractal pattern, categorizes them by size, and then outputs a composite fractal size index. This index is smooth, timely and accurate
Essentially, CFB reveals the length of the market's trending action time frame. Long trending activity produces a large CFB index and short choppy action produces a small index value. Investors have found many applications for CFB which involve scaling other existing technical indicators adaptively, on a bar-to-bar basis.
What is VHF Adaptive Cycle?
Vertical Horizontal Filter (VHF) was created by Adam White to identify trending and ranging markets. VHF measures the level of trend activity, similar to ADX DI. Vertical Horizontal Filter does not, itself, generate trading signals, but determines whether signals are taken from trend or momentum indicators. Using this trend information, one is then able to derive an average cycle length.
Real Woodies CCIAs always, this is not financial advice and use at your own risk. Trading is risky and can cost you significant sums of money if you are not careful. Make sure you always have a proper entry and exit plan that includes defining your risk before you enter a trade.
Ken Wood is a semi-famous trader that grew in popularity in the 1990s and early 2000s due to the establishment of one of the earliest trading forums online. This forum grew into "Woodie's CCI Club" due to Wood's love of his modified Commodity Channel Index (CCI) that he used extensively. From what I can tell, the website is still active and still follows the same core principles it did in the early days, the CCI is used for entries, range bars are used to help trader's cut down on the noise, and the optional addition of Woodie's Pivot Points can be used as further confirmation of support and resistance. This is my take on his famous "Woodie's CCI" that has become standard on many charting packages through the years, including a TradingView sponsored version as one of the many stock indicators provided by TradingView. Woodie has updated his CCI through the years to include several very cool additions outside of the standard CCI. I will have to say, I am a bit biased, but I think this is hands down one of the best indicators I have ever used, and I am far too young to have been part of the original CCI Club. Being a daytrader primarily, this fits right in my timeframe wheel house. Woodie designed this indicator to work on a day-trading time scale and he frequently uses this to trade futures and commodity contracts on the 30 minute, often even down to the one minute timeframe. This makes it unique in that it is probably one of the only daytrading-designed indicators out there that I am aware of that was not a popular indicator, like the MACD or RSI, that was just adopted by daytraders.
The CCI was originally created by Donald Lambert in 1980. Over time, it has become an extremely popular house-hold indicator, like the Stochastics, RSI, or MACD. However, like the RSI and Stochastics, there are extensive debates on how the CCI is actually meant to be used. Some trade it like a reversal indicator, where values greater than 100 or less than -100 are considered overbought or oversold, respectively. Others trade it like a typical zero-line cross indicator, where once the value goes above or below the zero-line, a trade should be considered in that direction. Lastly, some treat it as strictly a momentum indicator, where values greater than 100 or less than -100 are seen as strong momentum moves and when these values are reached, a new strong trend is establishing in the direction of the move. The CCI itself is nothing fancy, it just visualizes the distance of the closing price away from a user-defined SMA value and plots it as a line. However, Woodie's CCI takes this simple concept and adds to it with an indicator with 5 pieces to it designed to help the trader enter into the highest probability setups. Bear with me, it initially looks super complicated, but I promise it is pretty straight-forward and a fun indicator to use.
1) The CCI Histogram. This is your standard CCI value that you would find on the normal CCI. Woodie's CCI uses a value of 14 for most trades and a value of 20 when the timeframe is equal to or greater than 30minutes. I personally use this as a 20-period CCI on all time frames, simply for the fact that the 20 SMA is a very popular moving average and I want to know what the crowd is doing. This is your coloured histogram with 4 colours. A gray colouring is for any bars above or below the zero line for 1-4 bars. A yellow bar is a "trend bar", where the long period CCI has been above/below the zero line for 5 consecutive bars, indicating that a trend in the current direction has been established. Blue bars above and red bars below are simply 6+n number of bars above or below the zero line confirming trend. These are used for the Zero-Line Reject Trade (explained below). The CCI Histogram has a matching long-period CCI line that is painted the same colour as the histogram, it is the same thing but is used just to outline the Histogram a bit better.
2) The CCI Turbo line. This is a sped-up 6 period CCI. This is to be used for the Zero-Line Reject trades, trendline breaks, and to identify shorter term overbought/oversold conditions against the main trend. This is coloured as the white line.
3) The Least Squares Moving Average Baseline (LSMA) Zero Line. You will notice that the Zero Line of the indicator is either green or red. This is based on when price is above or below the 25-period LSMA on the chart. The LSMA is a 25 period linear regression moving average and is one of the best moving averages out there because it is more immune to noise than a typical MA. Statistically, an LSMA is designed to find the line of best fit across the lookback periods and identify whether price is advancing, declining, or flat, without the whipsaw that other MAs can be privy to. The zero line of the indicator will turn green when the close candle is over the LSMA or red when it is below the LSMA. This is meant to be a confirmation tool only and the CCI Histogram and Turbo Histogram can cross this zero line without any corresponding change in the colour of the zero line on that immediate candle.
4) The +100 and -100 lines are used in two ways. First, they can be used by the CCI Histogram and CCI Turbo as a sort of minor price resistance and if the CCI values cannot get through these, it is considered weakness in that trade direction until they do so. You will notice that both of these lines are multi-coloured. They have been plotted with the ChopZone Indicator, another TradingView built-in indicator. The ChopZone is a trend identification tool that uses the slope and the direction of a 34-period EMA to identify when price is trending or range bound. While there are ~10 different colours, the main two a trader needs to pay attention to are the turquoise/cyan blue, which indicates price is in an uptrend, and dark red, which indicates price is in a downtrend based on the slope and direction of the 34 EMA. All other colours indicate "chop". These colours are used solely for the Zero-Line Reject and pattern trades discussed below. They are plotted both above and below so you can easily see the colouring no matter what side of the zero line the CCI is on.
5) The +200 and -200 lines are also used in two ways. First, they are considered overbought/oversold levels where if price exceeds these lines then it has moved an extreme amount away from the average and is likely to experience a pullback shortly. This is more useful for the CCI Histogram than the Turbo CCI, in all honesty. You will also notice that these are coloured either red, green, or yellow. This is the Sidewinder indicator portion. The documentation on this is extremely sparse, only pointing to a "relationship between the LSMA and the 34 EMA" (see here: tlc.thinkorswim.com). Since I am not a member of Woodie's CCI Club and never intend to be I took some liberty here and decided that the most likely relationship here was the slope of both moving averages. Therefore, the Sidewinder will be green when both the LSMA and the 34 EMA are rising, red when both are falling, and yellow when they are not in agreement with one another (i.e. one rising/flat while the other is flat/falling). I am a big fan of Dr. Alexander Elder as those who follow me know, so consider this like Woodie's version of the Elder Impulse System. I will fully admit that this version of the Sidewinder is a guess and may not represent the real Sidewinder indicator, but it is next to impossible to find any information on this, so I apologize, but my version does do something useful anyways. This is also to be used only with the Zero-Line Reject trades. They are plotted both above and below so you can easily see the colouring no matter what side of the zero line the CCI is on.
How to Trade It According to Woodie's CCI Club:
Now that I have all of my components and history out of the way, this is what you all care about. I will only provide a brief overview of the trades in this system, but there are quite a few more detailed descriptions listed in the Woodie's CCI Club pamphlet. I have had little success trading the "patterns" but they do exist and do work on occasion. I just prefer to trade with the flow of the markets rather than getting overly scalpy. If you are interested in these patterns, see the pamphlet here (www.trading-attitude.com), hop into the forums and see for yourself, or check out a couple of the YouTube videos.
1) Zero line cross. As simple as any other momentum oscillator out there. When the long period CCI crosses above or below the zero line open a trade in that direction. Extra confirmation can be had when the CCI Turbo has already broken the +100/-100 line "resistance or support". Trend traders may wish to wait until the yellow "trend confirmation bar" has been printed.
2) Zero Line Reject. This is when the CCI Turbo heads back down to the zero line and then bounces back in the same direction of the prevailing trend. These are fantastic continuation trades if you missed the initial entry either on the zero line cross or on the trend bar establishment. ZLR trades are only viable when you have the ChopZone indicator showing a trend (turquoise/cyan for uptrend, dark red for downtrend), the LSMA line is green for an uptrend or red for a downtrend, and the SideWinder is either green confirming the uptrend or red confirming the downtrend.
3) Hook From Extreme. This is the exact same as the Zero Line Reject trade, however, the CCI Turbo now goes to the +100/-100 line (whichever is opposite the currently established trend) and then hooks back into the established trend direction. Ideally the HFE trade needs to have the Long CCI Histogram above/below the corresponding 100 level and the CCI Turbo both breaks the 100 level on the trend side and when it does break it has increased ~20 points from the previous value (i.e. CCI Histogram = +150 with LSMA, CZ, and SW all matching up and trend bars printed on CCI Histogram, CCI Turbo went to -120 and bounced to +80 on last 2 bars, current bar closes with CCI Turbo closing at +110).
4) Trend Line Break. Either the CCI Turbo or CCI Histogram, whichever you prefer (I find the Turbo a bit more accurate since its a faster value) creates a series of higher highs/lows you can draw a trend line linking them. When the line breaks the trendline that is your signal to take a counter trade position. For example, if the CCI Turbo is making consistently higher lows and then breaks the trendline through the zero line, you can then go short. This is a good continuation trade.
5) The Tony Trade. Consider this like a combination zero line reject, trend line break, and weak zero line cross all in one. The idea is that the SW, CZ, and LSMA values are all established in one direction. The CCI Histogram should be in an established trend and then cross the zero line but never break the 100 level on the new side as long as it has not printed more than 9 bars on the new side. If the CCI Histogram prints 9 or less bars on the new side and then breaks the trendline and crosses back to the original trend side, that is your signal to take a reversal trade. This is best used in the Elder Triple Screen method (discussed in final section) as a failed dip or rip.
6) The GB100 Trade. This is a similar trade as the Tony Trade, however, the CCI Histogram can break the 100 level on the new side but has to have made less than 6 bars on the new side. A trendline break is not necessary here either, it is more of a "pop and drop" or "momentum failure" trade trying in the new direction.
7) The Famir Trade. This is a failed CCI Long Histogram ZLR trade and is quite complicated. I have never traded this but it is in the pamphlet. Essentially you have a typical ZLR reject (i.e. all components saying it is likely a long/short continuation trade), but the ZLR only stays around the 50 level, goes back to the trend side, fails there as well immediately after 1 bar and then rebreaks to the new side. This is important to be considered with the LSMA value matching the side of the trade, so if the Famir says to go long, you need the LSMA indicator to also say to go long.
8) The Vegas Trade. This is essentially a trend-reversal trade that takes into account the LSMA and a cup and handle formation on the CCI Long Histogram after it has reached an extreme value (+200/-200). You will see the CCI Histogram hit the extreme value, head towards the zero line, and then sort of round out back in the direction of the extreme price. The low point where it reversed back in the direction of the extreme can be considered support or resistance on the CCI and once the CCI Long Histogram breaks this level again, with LSMA confirmation, you can take a counter trend trade with a stop under/over the highest/lowest point of the last 2 bars as you want to be out quickly if you are wrong without much damage but can get a huge win if you are right and add later to the position once a new trade has formed.
9) The Ghost Trade. This is nothing more than a(n) (inverse) head and shoulders pattern created on the CCI. Draw a trend line connecting the head and shoulders and trade a reversal trade once the CCI Long Histogram breaks the trend line. Same deal as the Vegas Trade, stop over/under the most recent 2 bar high/low and add later if it is a winner but cut quickly if it is a loser.
Like I said, this is a complicated system and could quite literally take years to master if you wanted to go into the patterns and master them. I prefer to trade it in a much simpler format, using the Elder Triple Screen System. First, since I am a day trader, I look to use the 20 period Woodie's on the hourly and look at the CZ, SW, and LSMA values to make sure they all match the direction of the CCI Long Histogram (a trend establishment is not necessary here). It shows you the hourly trend as your "tide". I then drill down to the 15 minute time frame and use the Turbo CCI break in the opposite direction of the trend as my "wave" and to indicate when there is a dip or rip against the main trend. Lastly, I drill down to a 3 minute time frame and enter when the CCI Long Histogram turns back to match the main trend ("ripple") as long as the CCI Turbo has broken the 100 level in the matched direction.
Enjoy, and please read the pamphlet if you have any questions about the patterns as they are not how I use these and will not be able to answer those questions.
LibraryCOT█ OVERVIEW
This library is a Pine programmer's tool that provides functions to access Commitment of Traders (COT) data for futures. Four of our scripts use it:
• Commitment of Traders: Legacy Metrics
• Commitment of Traders: Disaggregated Metrics
• Commitment of Traders: Financial Metrics
• Commitment of Traders: Total
If you do not program in Pine and want to use COT data, please see the indicators linked above.
█ CONCEPTS
Commitment of Traders (COT) data is tallied by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) , a US federal agency that oversees the trading of derivative markets such as futures in the US. It is weekly data that provides traders with information about open interest for an asset. The CFTC oversees derivative markets traded on different exchanges, so COT data is available for assets that can be traded on CBOT, CME, NYMEX, COMEX, and ICEUS.
Accessing COT data from a Pine script requires the generation of a ticker ID string for use with request.security() . The ticker string must be encoded in a special format that includes both CFTC and TradingView-specific content. The format of the ticker IDs is somewhat complex; this library's functions make their generation easier. Note that if you know the COT ticker ID string for specific data, you can enter it from the chart's "Symbol Search" dialog box.
A ticker for COT data in Pine has the following structure:
COT:__<_metricDirection><_metricType>
where an underscore prefixing a component name inside <> is only included if the component is not a null string, and:
Is a digit representing the type of the COT report the data comes from: "" for legacy COT data, "2" for disaggregated data and "3" for financial data.
Is a six digit code that represents a commodity. Example: wheat futures (root "ZW") have the code "001602".
Is either "F" if the report data should exclude Options data, or "FO" if such data is included.
Is the TradingView code of the metric. This library's `metricNameAndDirectionToTicker()` function creates both
the and components of a COT ticker from the metric names and directions listed in the above chart.
The different metrics are explained in the CFTC's Explanatory Notes .
Is the direction of the metric: "Long", "Short", "Spreading" or "No direction".
Not all directions are applicable to all metrics. The valid ones are listed next to each metric in the above chart.
Is the type of the metric, possible values are "All", "Old" and "Other".
The difference between the types is explained in the "Old and Other Futures" section of the CFTC's Explanatory Notes .
As an example, the Legacy report Open Interest data for ZW futures (options included) in the old standard has the ticker "COT:001602_FO_OI_OLD". The same data using the current standard without futures has the ticker "COT:001602_F_OI".
█ USING THE LIBRARY
The first functions in the library are helper functions that generate components of a COT ticker ID. The last function, `COTTickerid()`, is the one that generates the full ticker ID string by calling some of the helper functions. We use it like this in our example:
exampleTicker = COTTickerid(
COTType = "Legacy",
CFTCCode = convertRootToCOTCode("Auto"),
includeOptions = false,
metricName = "Open Interest",
metricDirection = "No direction",
metricType = "All")
This library's chart displays the valid values for the `metricName` and `metricDirection` arguments. They vary for each of the three types of COT data (the `COTType` argument). The chart also displays the COT ticker ID string in the `exampleTicker` variable.
Look first. Then leap.
The library's functions are:
rootToCFTCCode(root)
Accepts a futures root and returns the relevant CFTC code.
Parameters:
root : Root prefix of the future's symbol, e.g. "ZC" for "ZC1!"" or "ZCU2021".
Returns: The part of a COT ticker corresponding to `root`, or "" if no CFTC code exists for the `root`.
currencyToCFTCCode(curr)
Converts a currency string to its corresponding CFTC code.
Parameters:
curr : Currency code, e.g., "USD" for US Dollar.
Returns: The corresponding to the currency, if one exists.
optionsToTicker(includeOptions)
Returns the part of a COT ticker using the `includeOptions` value supplied, which determines whether options data is to be included.
Parameters:
includeOptions : A "bool" value: 'true' if the symbol should include options and 'false' otherwise.
Returns: The part of a COT ticker: "FO" for data that includes options and "F" for data that doesn't.
metricNameAndDirectionToTicker(metricName, metricDirection)
Returns a string corresponding to a metric name and direction, which is one component required to build a valid COT ticker ID.
Parameters:
metricName : One of the metric names listed in this library's chart. Invalid values will cause a runtime error.
metricDirection : Metric direction. Possible values are: "Long", "Short", "Spreading", and "No direction".
Valid values vary with metrics. Invalid values will cause a runtime error.
Returns: The part of a COT ticker ID string, e.g., "OI_OLD" for "Open Interest" and "No direction",
or "TC_L" for "Traders Commercial" and "Long".
typeToTicker(metricType)
Converts a metric type into one component required to build a valid COT ticker ID.
See the "Old and Other Futures" section of the CFTC's Explanatory Notes for details on types.
Parameters:
metricType : Metric type. Accepted values are: "All", "Old", "Other".
Returns: The part of a COT ticker.
convertRootToCOTCode(mode, convertToCOT)
Depending on the `mode`, returns a CFTC code using the chart's symbol or its currency information when `convertToCOT = true`.
Otherwise, returns the symbol's root or currency information. If no COT data exists, a runtime error is generated.
Parameters:
mode : A string determining how the function will work. Valid values are:
"Root": the function extracts the futures symbol root (e.g. "ES" in "ESH2020") and looks for its CFTC code.
"Base currency": the function extracts the first currency in a pair (e.g. "EUR" in "EURUSD") and looks for its CFTC code.
"Currency": the function extracts the quote currency ("JPY" for "TSE:9984" or "USDJPY") and looks for its CFTC code.
"Auto": the function tries the first three modes (Root -> Base Currency -> Currency) until a match is found.
convertToCOT : "bool" value that, when `true`, causes the function to return a CFTC code.
Otherwise, the root or currency information is returned. Optional. The default is `true`.
Returns: If `convertToCOT` is `true`, the part of a COT ticker ID string.
If `convertToCOT` is `false`, the root or currency extracted from the current symbol.
COTTickerid(COTType, CTFCCode, includeOptions, metricName, metricDirection, metricType)
Returns a valid TradingView ticker for the COT symbol with specified parameters.
Parameters:
COTType : A string with the type of the report requested with the ticker, one of the following: "Legacy", "Disaggregated", "Financial".
CTFCCode : The for the asset, e.g., wheat futures (root "ZW") have the code "001602".
includeOptions : A boolean value. 'true' if the symbol should include options and 'false' otherwise.
metricName : One of the metric names listed in this library's chart.
metricDirection : Direction of the metric, one of the following: "Long", "Short", "Spreading", "No direction".
metricType : Type of the metric. Possible values: "All", "Old", and "Other".
Returns: A ticker ID string usable with `request.security()` to fetch the specified Commitment of Traders data.
█ AVAILABLE METRICS
Different COT types provide different metrics. The table of all metrics available for each of the types can be found below.
+------------------------------+------------------------+
| Legacy (COT) Metric Names | Directions |
+------------------------------+------------------------+
| Open Interest | No direction |
| Noncommercial Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Commercial Positions | Long, Short |
| Total Reportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Nonreportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Traders Total | No direction |
| Traders Noncommercial | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Commercial | Long, Short |
| Traders Total Reportable | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LT 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LT 8 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LT 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LT 8 TDR | Long, Short |
+------------------------------+------------------------+
+-----------------------------------+------------------------+
| Disaggregated (COT2) Metric Names | Directions |
+-----------------------------------+------------------------+
| Open Interest | No Direction |
| Producer Merchant Positions | Long, Short |
| Swap Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Managed Money Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Other Reportable Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Total Reportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Nonreportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Traders Total | No Direction |
| Traders Producer Merchant | Long, Short |
| Traders Swap | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Managed Money | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Other Reportable | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Total Reportable | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LE 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LE 8 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LE 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LE 8 TDR | Long, Short |
+-----------------------------------+------------------------+
+-------------------------------+------------------------+
| Financial (COT3) Metric Names | Directions |
+-------------------------------+------------------------+
| Open Interest | No Direction |
| Dealer Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Asset Manager Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Leveraged Funds Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Other Reportable Positions | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Total Reportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Nonreportable Positions | Long, Short |
| Traders Total | No Direction |
| Traders Dealer | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Asset Manager | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Leveraged Funds | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Other Reportable | Long, Short, Spreading |
| Traders Total Reportable | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LE 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Gross LE 8 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LE 4 TDR | Long, Short |
| Concentration Net LE 8 TDR | Long, Short |
+-------------------------------+------------------------+
