Accumulation/Distribution Level (ADL) [Cyrus c|:D]This indicator shows Accumulation/Distribution level which can be used for confirming trends or reversals (via divergence). It is an alternative to Chaikin's Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) and On Balance Volume (OBV) indicators. It can also replicate PVT and OBV via options in the input menu.
Here is a comparison of four related indicators:
OBV is too simple and has serious flaws as explained in PVT's wiki.
Chaikin's ADL is a broken indicator as can be seen in the chart below:
A/D Level addresses the flaws in these two indicators. It simply sums up portions of the volume that contributes to price change. These portions are visualized in dark green and red on "Accumulation/Distribution Volume (ADV)" indicator. This can also be achieved by ADV indicator if you are nerd enough.
PS: There is Williams A/D as well which is also a broken indicator.
스크립트에서 "indicators"에 대해 찾기
indicator CalibrationIndicator Calibration - Multi-Indicator Consensus System
Overview
Indicator Calibration is a powerful consensus-based trading indicator that leverages the MyIndicatorLibrary (NormalizedIndicators) to combine multiple trend-following indicators into a single, actionable signal. By averaging the normalized outputs of up to 8 different trend indicators, this tool provides traders with a clear consensus view of market direction, reducing noise and false signals inherent in single-indicator approaches.
The indicator outputs a value between -1 (strong bearish) and +1 (strong bullish), with 0 representing a neutral market state. This creates an intuitive, easy-to-read oscillator that synthesizes multiple analytical perspectives into one coherent signal.
🎯 Core Concept
Consensus Trading Philosophy
Rather than relying on a single indicator that may give conflicting or premature signals, Indicator Calibration employs a democratic voting system where multiple indicators contribute their normalized opinion:
Each enabled indicator votes: +1 (bullish), -1 (bearish), or 0 (neutral)
The votes are averaged to create a consensus signal
Strong consensus (closer to ±1) indicates high agreement among indicators
Weak consensus (closer to 0) indicates market indecision or transition
Key Benefits
Reduced False Signals: Multiple indicators must agree before strong signals appear
Noise Filtering: Individual indicator quirks are smoothed out by averaging
Customizable: Enable/disable indicators and adjust parameters to suit your trading style
Universal Application: Works across all timeframes and asset classes
Clear Visualization: Simple line oscillator with clear bull/bear zones
📊 Included Indicators
The system can utilize up to 8 normalized trend-following indicators from the library:
1. BBPct - Bollinger Bands Percent
Parameters: Length (default: 20), Factor (default: 2)
Type: Stationary oscillator
Strength: Mean reversion and volatility detection
2. NorosTrendRibbonEMA
Parameters: Length (default: 20)
Type: Non-stationary trend follower
Strength: Breakout detection with momentum confirmation
3. RSI - Relative Strength Index
Parameters: Length (default: 9), SMA Length (default: 4)
Type: Stationary momentum oscillator
Strength: Overbought/oversold with smoothing
4. Vidya - Variable Index Dynamic Average
Parameters: Length (default: 30), History Length (default: 9)
Type: Adaptive moving average
Strength: Volatility-adjusted trend following
5. HullSuite
Parameters: Length (default: 55), Multiplier (default: 1)
Type: Fast-response moving average
Strength: Low-lag trend identification
6. TrendContinuation
Parameters: MA Length 1 (default: 50), MA Length 2 (default: 25)
Type: Dual HMA system
Strength: Trend quality assessment with neutral states
7. LeonidasTrendFollowingSystem
Parameters: Short Length (default: 21), Key Length (default: 10)
Type: Dual EMA crossover
Strength: Simple, reliable trend tracking
8. TRAMA - Trend Regularity Adaptive Moving Average
Parameters: Length (default: 50)
Type: Adaptive trend follower
Strength: Adjusts to trend stability
⚙️ Input Parameters
Source Settings
Source: Choose your price input (default: close)
Can be modified to: open, high, low, close, hl2, hlc3, ohlc4, hlcc4
Indicator Selection
Each indicator can be enabled or disabled via checkboxes:
use_bbpct: Enable/disable Bollinger Bands Percent
use_noros: Enable/disable Noro's Trend Ribbon
use_rsi: Enable/disable RSI
use_vidya: Enable/disable VIDYA
use_hull: Enable/disable Hull Suite
use_trendcon: Enable/disable Trend Continuation
use_leonidas: Enable/disable Leonidas System
use_trama: Enable/disable TRAMA
Parameter Customization
Each indicator has its own parameter group where you can fine-tune:
val 1: Primary period/length parameter
val 2: Secondary parameter (multiplier, smoothing, etc.)
📈 Signal Interpretation
Output Line (Orange)
The main output oscillates between -1 and +1:
+1.0 to +0.5: Strong bullish consensus (all or most indicators agree on uptrend)
+0.5 to +0.2: Moderate bullish bias (bullish indicators outnumber bearish)
+0.2 to -0.2: Neutral zone (mixed signals or transition phase)
-0.2 to -0.5: Moderate bearish bias (bearish indicators outnumber bullish)
-0.5 to -1.0: Strong bearish consensus (all or most indicators agree on downtrend)
Reference Lines
Green line (+1): Maximum bullish consensus
Red line (-1): Maximum bearish consensus
Gray line (0): Neutral midpoint
💡 Trading Strategies
Strategy 1: Consensus Threshold Trading
Entry Rules:
- Long: Output crosses above +0.5 (strong bullish consensus)
- Short: Output crosses below -0.5 (strong bearish consensus)
Exit Rules:
- Exit Long: Output crosses below 0 (consensus lost)
- Exit Short: Output crosses above 0 (consensus lost)
Strategy 2: Zero-Line Crossover
Entry Rules:
- Long: Output crosses above 0 (bullish shift in consensus)
- Short: Output crosses below 0 (bearish shift in consensus)
Exit Rules:
- Exit on opposite crossover
Strategy 3: Divergence Trading
Look for divergences between:
- Price making higher highs while indicator makes lower highs (bearish divergence)
- Price making lower lows while indicator makes higher lows (bullish divergence)
Strategy 4: Extreme Reading Reversal
Entry Rules:
- Long: Output reaches -0.8 or below (extreme bearish consensus = potential reversal)
- Short: Output reaches +0.8 or above (extreme bullish consensus = potential reversal)
Use with caution - best combined with other reversal signals
🔧 Optimization Tips
For Trending Markets
Enable trend-following indicators: Noro's, VIDYA, Hull Suite, Leonidas
Use higher threshold levels (±0.6) to filter out minor retracements
Increase indicator periods for smoother signals
For Range-Bound Markets
Enable oscillators: BBPct, RSI
Use zero-line crossovers for entries
Decrease indicator periods for faster response
For Volatile Markets
Enable adaptive indicators: VIDYA, TRAMA
Use wider threshold levels to avoid whipsaws
Consider disabling fast indicators that may overreact
Custom Calibration Process
Start with all indicators enabled using default parameters
Backtest on your chosen timeframe and asset
Identify which indicators produce the most false signals
Disable or adjust parameters for problematic indicators
Test different threshold levels for entry/exit
Validate on out-of-sample data
📊 Visual Guide
Color Scheme
Orange Line: Main consensus output
Green Horizontal: Bullish extreme (+1)
Red Horizontal: Bearish extreme (-1)
Gray Horizontal: Neutral zone (0)
Reading the Chart
Line above 0: Net bullish sentiment
Line below 0: Net bearish sentiment
Line near extremes: Strong consensus
Line fluctuating near 0: Indecision or transition
Smooth line movement: Stable consensus
Erratic line movement: Conflicting signals
⚠️ Important Considerations
Lag Characteristics
This is a lagging indicator by design (consensus takes time to form)
Best used for trend confirmation rather than early entry
May miss the first portion of strong moves
Reduces false entries at the cost of delayed entries
Number of Active Indicators
More indicators = smoother but slower signals
Fewer indicators = faster but potentially noisier signals
Minimum recommended: 4 indicators for reliable consensus
Optimal: 6-8 indicators for balanced performance
Market Conditions
Best: Strong trending markets (up or down)
Good: Volatile markets with clear directional moves
Poor: Choppy, sideways markets with no clear trend
Worst: Low-volume, range-bound conditions
Complementary Tools
Consider combining with:
Volume analysis for confirmation
Support/resistance levels for entry/exit points
Market structure analysis (higher timeframe trends)
Risk management tools (ATR-based stops)
🎓 Example Use Cases
Swing Trading
Timeframe: Daily or 4H
Enable: All 8 indicators with default parameters
Entry: Consensus > +0.5 or < -0.5
Hold: Until consensus reverses to opposite extreme
Day Trading
Timeframe: 15m or 1H
Enable: Faster indicators (RSI, BBPct, Noro's, Hull Suite)
Entry: Zero-line crossover with volume confirmation
Exit: Opposite crossover or profit target
Position Trading
Timeframe: Weekly or Daily
Enable: Slower indicators (TRAMA, VIDYA, Trend Continuation)
Entry: Strong consensus (±0.7) with higher timeframe confirmation
Hold: Months until consensus weakens significantly
🔬 Technical Details
Calculation Method
1. Each enabled indicator calculates its normalized signal (-1, 0, or +1)
2. All active signals are stored in an array
3. Array.avg() computes the arithmetic mean
4. Result is plotted as a continuous line
Output Range
Theoretical: -1.0 to +1.0
Practical: Typically ranges between -0.8 to +0.8
Rare: All indicators perfectly aligned at ±1.0
Performance
Lightweight calculation (simple averaging)
No repainting (all indicators are non-repainting)
Compatible with all Pine Script features
Works on all TradingView plans
📋 License
This code is subject to the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at mozilla.org
🚀 Quick Start Guide
Add to Chart: Apply indicator to your chart
Choose Timeframe: Select appropriate timeframe for your trading style
Enable Indicators: Start with all 8 enabled
Observe Behavior: Watch how consensus forms during different market conditions
Calibrate: Adjust parameters and indicator selection based on observations
Backtest: Validate your settings on historical data
Trade: Apply with proper risk management
🎯 Key Takeaways
✅ Consensus beats individual indicators - Multiple perspectives reduce errors
✅ Customizable to your style - Enable/disable and tune to preference
✅ Simple interpretation - One line tells the story
✅ Works across markets - Stocks, crypto, forex, commodities
✅ Reduces emotional trading - Clear, objective signal generation
✅ Professional-grade - Built on proven technical analysis principles
Indicator Calibration transforms complex multi-indicator analysis into a single, actionable signal. By harnessing the collective wisdom of multiple proven trend-following systems, traders gain a powerful edge in identifying high-probability trade setups while filtering out market noise.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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Diodato 'All Stars Align' SignalDescription:
This indicator is an overlay that plots the "All Stars Align" buy signal from Chris Diodato's 2019 CMT paper, "Making The Most Of Panic." It is designed to identify high-conviction, short-term buying opportunities by requiring a confluence of both price-based momentum and market-internal weakness.
What It Is
This script works entirely in the background, calculating three separate indicators: the 14-day Slow Stochastic, the Short-Term Capitulation Oscillator (STCO), and the 3-DMA of % Declining Issues. It then plots a signal directly on the main price chart only when the specific "All Stars Align" conditions are met.
How to Interpret
A green cross (+) appears below a price bar when a high-conviction buy signal is generated. This signal triggers only when two primary conditions are true:
The 14-day Slow Stochastic is in "oversold" territory (e.g., below 20).
AND at least one of the market internal indicators shows a state of panic:
Either the STCO is oversold (e.g., below 140).
Or the 3-DMA % Declines shows a panic spike (e.g., above 65).
This confluence signifies a potential exhaustion of sellers and can mark an opportune moment to look for entries.
Settings
Trigger Thresholds: You can customize the exact levels that define an "oversold" or "panic" state for each of the three underlying indicators.
Data Sources: Allows toggling the use of "Unchanged" data for the background calculations.
Stochastic Settings: You can adjust the parameters for the Slow Stochastic calculation.
Multi-Signal IndikatorHier ist eine professionelle Beschreibung für deinen Indikator auf Englisch:
Multi-Signal Trading Indicator - Complete Market Analysis
This comprehensive trading indicator combines multiple technical analysis tools into one powerful dashboard, providing traders with all essential market information at a glance.
Key Features:
Trend Analysis: Three EMAs (9, 21, 50) with automatic trend detection and Golden/Death Cross signals
Momentum Indicators: RSI with overbought/oversold zones and visual alerts
Trend Strength: ADX indicator with DI+ and DI- showing the power of bullish and bearish movements
Market Fear Gauge: VIX (Volatility Index) integration displaying market sentiment from calm to panic levels
Volume Confirmation: Smart volume analysis comparing current activity against 20-period average
Support & Resistance: Automatic pivot point detection with dynamic S/R lines
Buy/Sell Signals: Combined signals only trigger when trend, RSI, and volume align perfectly
Visual Dashboard: Color-coded info panel showing all metrics in real-time with intuitive emoji indicators
Perfect for: Day traders, swing traders, and investors who want a complete market overview without cluttering their charts with multiple indicators.
Customizable settings allow you to adjust all parameters to match your trading style.
Liquidity Sweep with EMAThis Pine Script indicator helps traders identify potential market reversals based on liquidity sweeps, where the price moves through the previous candle's low or high and then closes above or below the previous candle's wick. These are often seen as significant market moves or liquidity grabs before a potential reversal or continuation.
The indicator is also equipped with an EMA (Exponential Moving Average) as an optional visual aid to give traders a sense of the prevailing trend, though it is not used as part of the signal generation logic.
Key Features:
Liquidity Sweep Detection:
Bullish Sweep: Triggered when the current candle sweeps below the low of the previous candle and then closes above the high of the previous candle. This indicates a potential market reversal to the upside after the liquidity sweep.
Bearish Sweep: Triggered when the current candle sweeps above the high of the previous candle and then closes below the low of the previous candle. This indicates a potential market reversal to the downside after the liquidity sweep.
EMA:
The EMA (50) is plotted on the chart for visual trend guidance. While it is not used to confirm the signals, it can help traders see if the market is in a general uptrend or downtrend.
Signal Presentation:
Buy Signal: The indicator will plot a green upward arrow below the candle when a bullish liquidity sweep is detected.
Sell Signal: The indicator will plot a red downward arrow above the candle when a bearish liquidity sweep is detected.
Timeframe Filter:
The indicator only generates signals on the following timeframes: 30-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and Daily. This helps to ensure the sweeps are significant and likely to result in meaningful price moves.
Alerts:
Alerts can be set up for both bullish and bearish sweep signals, so traders can be notified when these events occur.
Customizable:
EMA Length: The length of the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) can be adjusted. By default, it is set to 50, but you can modify this to fit your trading strategy.
Show EMA Option: You can toggle whether or not to display the EMA line on the chart.
How It Works:
The indicator looks for price action patterns where the current candle sweeps through the high or low of the previous candle and closes beyond the previous wick.
These patterns are often seen as potential traps, where the price initially moves in one direction (sweeping the liquidity) and then quickly reverses, making them important for traders who want to catch reversals or breakouts after a liquidity sweep.
The EMA (50) gives a general trend direction but doesn't directly affect the trade signals. It serves as a visual reference for trend analysis.
Potential Use Cases:
Reversal Trading: Traders can use this indicator to catch reversals after a liquidity sweep. The green upward arrows may indicate a bullish reversal, while the red downward arrows may indicate a bearish reversal.
Trend Trading: The EMA can help traders gauge the overall market trend. If the price is above the EMA, the market may be in an uptrend, and traders may focus on bullish sweeps. Conversely, if the price is below the EMA, the market may be in a downtrend, and traders may focus on bearish sweeps.
Confirmation with Other Indicators: Although the EMA is not used to confirm signals in this script, it can be combined with other indicators (like RSI, Volume, or MACD) to enhance the accuracy of your trades.
Final Thoughts:
This script is designed to identify liquidity sweeps and price reversals based on price action alone, without relying on complex indicators. The optional EMA serves as a helpful tool for understanding the overall market trend. It’s ideal for traders looking to spot potential reversal points after significant price sweeps and is suitable for multiple timeframes (30m, 1h, 4h, Daily).
You can use this description to help potential users understand the functionality of your indicator when publishing it on TradingView or selling it as an invite-only script. Let me know if you need any adjustments or further details!
N Bar Reversal Detector [LuxAlgo]The N Bar Reversal Detector is designed to detect and highlight N-bar reversal patterns in user charts, where N represents the length of the candle sequence used to detect the patterns. The script incorporates various trend indicators to filter out detected signals and offers a range of customizable settings to fit different trading strategies.
🔶 USAGE
The N-bar reversal pattern extends the popular 3-bar reversal pattern. While the 3-bar reversal pattern involves identifying a sequence of three bars signaling a potential trend reversal, the N-bar reversal pattern builds on this concept by incorporating additional bars based on user settings. This provides a more comprehensive indication of potential trend reversals. The script automates the identification of these patterns and generates clear, visually distinct signals to highlight potential trend changes.
When a reversal chart pattern is confirmed and aligns with the price action, the pattern's boundaries are extended to create levels. The upper boundary serves as resistance, while the lower boundary acts as support.
The script allows users to filter patterns based on the trend direction identified by various trend indicators. Users can choose to view patterns that align with the detected trend or those that are contrary to it.
🔶 DETAILS
🔹 The N-bar Reversal Pattern
The N-bar reversal pattern is a technical analysis tool designed to signal potential trend reversals in the market. It consists of N consecutive bars, with the first N-1 bars used to identify the prevailing trend and the Nth bar confirming the reversal. Here’s a detailed look at the pattern:
Bullish Reversal : In a bullish reversal setup, the first bar is the highest among the first N-1 bars, indicating a prevailing downtrend. Most of the remaining bars in this sequence should be bearish (closing lower than where they opened), reinforcing the existing downward momentum. The Nth (most recent) bar confirms a bullish reversal if its high price is higher than the high of the first bar in the sequence (standard pattern). For a stronger signal, the closing price of the Nth bar should also be higher than the high of the first bar.
Bearish Reversal : In a bearish reversal setup, the first bar is the lowest among the first N-1 bars, indicating a prevailing uptrend. Most of the remaining bars in this sequence should be bullish (closing higher than where they opened), reinforcing the existing upward momentum. The Nth bar confirms a bearish reversal if its low price is lower than the low of the first bar in the sequence (standard pattern). For a stronger signal, the closing price of the Nth bar should also be lower than the low of the first bar.
🔹 Min Percentage of Required Candles
This parameter specifies the minimum percentage of candles that must be bullish (for a bearish reversal) or bearish (for a bullish reversal) among the first N-1 candles in a pattern. For higher values of N, it becomes more challenging for all of the first N-1 candles to be consistently bullish or bearish. By setting a percentage value, P, users can adjust the requirement so that only a minimum of P percent of the first N-1 candles need to meet the bullish or bearish condition. This allows for greater flexibility in pattern recognition, accommodating variations in market conditions.
🔶 SETTINGS
Pattern Type: Users can choose the type of the N-bar reversal patterns to detect: Normal, Enhanced, or All. "Normal" detects patterns that do not necessarily surpass the high/low of the first bar. "Enhanced" detects patterns where the last bar surpasses the high/low of the first bar. "All" detects both Normal and Enhanced patterns.
Reversal Pattern Sequence Length: Specifies the number of candles (N) in the sequence used to identify a reversal pattern.
Min Percentage of Required Candles: Sets the minimum percentage of the first N-1 candles that must be bullish (for a bearish reversal) or bearish (for a bullish reversal) to qualify as a valid reversal pattern.
Derived Support and Resistance: Toggles the visibility of the support and resistance levels/zones.
🔹 Trend Filtering
Filtering: Allows users to filter patterns based on the trend indicators: Moving Average Cloud, Supertrend, and Donchian Channels. The "Aligned" option only detects patterns that align with the trend and conversely, the "Opposite" option detects patterns that go against the trend.
🔹 Trend Indicator Settings
Moving Average Cloud: Allows traders to choose the type of moving averages (SMA, EMA, HMA, etc.) and set the lengths for fast and slow moving averages.
Supertrend: Options to set the ATR length and factor for Supertrend.
Donchian Channels: Option to set the length for the channel calculation.
🔶 RELATED SCRIPTS
Reversal-Candlestick-Structure.
Reversal-Signals.
MACD of Relative Strenght StrategyMACD Relative Strenght Strategy :
INTRODUCTION :
This strategy is based on two well-known indicators: MACD and Relative Strenght (RS). By coupling them, we obtain powerful buy signals. In fact, the special feature of this strategy is that it creates an indicator from an indicator. Thus, we construct a MACD whose source is the value of the RS. The strategy only takes buy signals, ignoring SHORT signals as they are mostly losers. There's also a money management method enabling us to reinvest part of the profits or reduce the size of orders in the event of substantial losses.
RELATIVE STRENGHT :
RS is an indicator that measures the anomaly between momentum and the assumption of market efficiency. It is used by professionals and is one of the most robust indicators. The idea is to own assets that do better than average, based on their past performance. We calculate RS using this formula :
RS = close/highest_high(RS_Length)
Where highest_high(RS_Length) = highest value of the high over a user-defined time period (which is the RS_Length).
We can thus situate the current price in relation to its highest price over this user-defined period.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence - Divergence) :
This is one of the best-known indicators, measuring the distance between two exponential moving averages : one fast and one slower. A wide distance indicates fast momentum and vice versa. We'll plot the value of this distance and call this line macdline. The MACD uses a third moving average with a lower period than the first two. This last moving average will give a signal when it crosses the macdline. It is therefore constructed using the values of the macdline as its source.
It's important to note that the first two MAs are constructed using RS values as their source. So we've just built an indicator of an indicator. This kind of method is very powerful because it is rarely used and brings value to the strategy.
PARAMETERS :
RS Length : Relative Strength length i.e. the number of candles back to find the highest high and compare the current price with this high. Default is 300.
MACD Fast Length : Relative Strength fast EMA length used to plot the MACD. Default is 14.
MACD Slow Length : Relative Strength slow EMA length used to plot the MACD. Default is 26.
MACD Signal Smoothing : Macdline SMA length used to plot the MACD. Default is 10.
Max risk per trade (in %) : The maximum loss a trade can incur (in percentage of the trade value). Default is 8%.
Fixed Ratio : This is the amount of gain or loss at which the order quantity is changed. Default is 400, meaning that for each $400 gain or loss, the order size is increased or decreased by a user-selected amount.
Increasing Order Amount : This is the amount to be added to or subtracted from orders when the fixed ratio is reached. The default is $200, which means that for every $400 gain, $200 is reinvested in the strategy. On the other hand, for every $400 loss, the order size is reduced by $200.
Initial capital : $1000
Fees : Interactive Broker fees apply to this strategy. They are set at 0.18% of the trade value.
Slippage : 3 ticks or $0.03 per trade. Corresponds to the latency time between the moment the signal is received and the moment the order is executed by the broker.
Important : A bot has been used to test the different parameters and determine which ones maximize return while limiting drawdown. This strategy is the most optimal on BITSTAMP:ETHUSD in 8h timeframe with the parameters set by default.
ENTER RULES :
The entry rules are very simple : we open a long position when the MACD value turns positive. You are therefore LONG when the MACD is green.
EXIT RULES :
We exit a position (whether losing or winning) when the MACD becomes negative, i.e. turns red.
RISK MANAGEMENT :
This strategy can incur losses, so it's important to manage our risks well. If the position is losing and has incurred a loss of -8%, our stop loss is activated to limit losses.
MONEY MANAGEMENT :
The fixed ratio method was used to manage our gains and losses. For each gain of an amount equal to the value of the fixed ratio, we increase the order size by a value defined by the user in the "Increasing order amount" parameter. Similarly, each time we lose an amount equal to the value of the fixed ratio, we decrease the order size by the same user-defined value. This strategy increases both performance and drawdown.
Enjoy the strategy and don't forget to take the trade :)
Enhanced Parabolic SAR + EMA 200 + MACD SignalsParabolic SAR + EMA 200 + MACD Signals Indicator is a popular technical analysis tool used by traders to identify potential entry and exit points in the market. It combines three widely used indicators: Parabolic SAR, EMA 200, and MACD.
The Parabolic SAR indicator helps determine potential price reversals. It places dots above or below the price chart to indicate the direction of the trend. When the dots are below the price, it suggests an upward trend, and when they are above the price, it indicates a downward trend.
The EMA 200 (Exponential Moving Average 200) is a moving average that gives more weight to recent price data. It is often used as a significant support or resistance level. Traders consider the price to be in an uptrend if it is above the EMA 200 and in a downtrend if it is below the EMA 200.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a trend-following momentum indicator that calculates the difference between two exponential moving averages. It consists of a MACD line and a signal line. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it generates a bullish signal, indicating a potential buying opportunity. Conversely, when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it generates a bearish signal, suggesting a potential selling opportunity.
To use the MACD-Parabolic SAR-EMA200 Indicator for trading, you can follow these guidelines:
Buy conditions:
1. The price should be above the EMA 200.
2. The Parabolic SAR should indicate an upward trend (dots below the price).
3. The MACD delta (the difference between the MACD line and the signal line) should be positive.
Sell conditions:
1. The price should be below the EMA 200.
2. The Parabolic SAR should indicate a downward trend (dots above the price).
3. The MACD delta should be negative.
By combining these three indicators, traders can gain additional confirmation of the overall trend direction and make more informed trading decisions. However, it's important to note that no indicator guarantees successful trades, and it's always advisable to use additional analysis and risk management techniques in conjunction with technical indicators.
Trend Correlation HeatmapHello everyone!
I am excited to release my trend correlation heatmap, or trend heatmap for short.
Per usual, I think its important to explain the theory before we get into the use of the indicator, so let's get into the theory!
The theory:
So what is a correlation?
Correlation is the relationship one variable has to another. Correlations are the basis of everything I do as a quantitative trader. From the correlation between the same variables (i.e. autocorrelation), the correlation between other variables (i.e. VIX and SPY, SPY High and SPY Low, DXY and ES1! close, etc.) and, as well, the correlation between price and time (time series correlation).
This may sound very familiar to you, especially if you are a user, observer or follower of my ideas and/or indicators. Ninety-five percent of my indicators are a function of one of those three things. Whether it be a time series based indicator (i.e.my time series indicator), whether it be autocorrelation (my autoregressive cloud indicator or my autocorrelation oscillator) or whether it be regressive in nature (i.e. my SPY Volume weighted close, or even my expected move which uses averages in lieu of regressive approaches but is foundational in regression principles. Or even my VIX oscillator which relies on the premise of correlations between tickers.) So correlation is extremely important to me and while its true I am more of a regression trader than anything, I would argue that I am more of a correlation trader, because correlations are the backbone of how I develop math models of stocks.
What I am trying to stress here is the importance of correlations. They really truly are foundational to any type of quantitative analysis for stocks. And as such, understanding the current relationship a stock has to time is pivotal for any meaningful analysis to be conducted.
So what is correlation to time and what does it tell us?
Correlation to time, otherwise known and commonly referred to as "Time Series", is the relationship a ticker's price has to the passing of time. It is displayed in the traditional Pearson Correlation Coefficient or R value and can be any value from -1 (strong negative relationship, i.e. a strong downtrend) to + 1 (i.e. a strong positive relationship, i.e. a strong uptrend). The higher or lower the value the stronger the up or downtrend is.
As such, correlation to time tells us two very important things. These are:
a) The direction of the stock; and
b) The strength of the trend.
Let's take a look at an example:
Above we have a chart of QQQ. We can see a trendline that seems to fit well. The questions we ask as traders are:
1. What is the likelihood QQQ breaks down from this trendline?
2. What is the likelihood QQQ continues up?
3. What is the likelihood QQQ does a false breakdown?
There are numerous mathematical approaches we can take to answer these questions. For example, 1 and 2 can be answered by use of a Cumulative Distribution Density analysis (CDDA) or even a linear or loglinear regression analysis and 3 can be answered, more or less, with a linear regression analysis and standard error ascertainment, or even just a general comparison using a data science approach (such as cosine similarity or Manhattan distance).
But, the reality is, all 3 of these questions can be visualized, at least in some way, by simply looking at the correlation to time. Let's look at this chart again, this time with the correlation heatmap applied:
If we look at the indicator we can see some pivotal things. These are:
1. We have 4, very strong uptrends that span both higher AND lower timeframes. We have a strong uptrend of 0.96 on the 5 minute, 50 candle period. We have a strong uptrend at the 300 candle lookback period on the 1 minute, we have a strong uptrend on the 100 day lookback on the daily timeframe period and we have a strong uptrend on the 5 minute on the 500 candle lookback period.
2. By comparison, we have 3 downtrends, all of which have correlations less than the 4 uptrends. All of the downtrends have a correlation above -0.8 (which we would want lower than -0.8 to be very strong), and all of the uptrends are greater than + 0.80.
3. We can also see that the uptrends are not confined to the smaller timeframes. We have multiple uptrends on multiple timeframes and both short term (50 to 100 candles) and long term (up to 500 candles).
4. The overall trend is strengthening to the upside manifested by a positive Max Change and a Positive Min change (to be discussed later more in-depth).
With this, we can see that QQQ is actually very strong and likely will continue at least some upside. If we let this play out:
We continued up, had one test and then bounced.
Now, I want to specify, this indicator is not a panacea for all trading. And in relation to the 3 questions posed, they are best answered, at least quantitatively, not only by correlation but also by the aforementioned methods (CDDA, etc.) but correlation will help you get a feel for the strength or weakness present with a stock.
What are some tangible applications of the indicator?
For me, this indicator is used in many ways. Let me outline some ways I generally apply this indicator in my day and swing trading:
1. Gauging the strength of the stock: The indictor tells you the most prevalent behavior of the stock. Are there more downtrends than uptrends present? Are the downtrends present on the larger timeframes vs uptrends on the shorter indicating a possible bullish reversal? or vice versa? Are the trends strengthening or weakening? All of these things can be visualized with the indicator.
2. Setting parameters for other indicators: If you trade EMAs or SMAs, you may have a "one size fits all" approach. However, its actually better to adjust your EMA or SMA length to the actual trend itself. Take a look at this:
This is QQQ on the 1 hour with the 200 EMA with 200 standard deviation bands added. If we look at the heatmap, we can see, yes indeed 200 has a fairly strong uptrend correlation of 0.70. But the strongest hourly uptrend is actually at 400 candles, with a correlation of 0.91. So what happens if we change the EMA length and standard deviation to 400? This:
The exact areas are circled and colour coded. You can see, the 400 offers more of a better reference point of supports and resistances as well as a better overall trend fit. And this is why I never advocate for getting married to a specific EMA. If you are an EMA 200 lover or 21 or 51, know that these are not always the best depending on the trend and situation.
Components of the indicator:
Ah okay, now for the boring stuff. Let's go over the functionality of the indicator. I tried to keep it simple, so it is pretty straight forward. If we open the menu here are our options:
We have the ability to toggle whichever timeframes we want. We also have the ability to toggle on or off the legend that displays the colour codes and the Max and Min highest change.
Max and Min highest change: The max and min highest change simply display the change in correlation over the previous 14 candles. An increasing Max change means that the Max trend is strengthening. If we see an increasing Max change and an increasing Min change (the Min correlation is moving up), this means the stock is bullish. Why? Because the min (i.e. ideally a big negative number) is going up closer to the positives. Therefore, the downtrend is weakening.
If we see both the Max and Min declining (red), that means the uptrend is weakening and downtrend is strengthening. Here are some examples:
Final Thoughts:
And that is the indicator and the theory behind the indicator.
In a nutshell, to summarize, the indicator simply tracks the correlation of a ticker to time on multiple timeframes. This will allow you to make judgements about strength, sentiment and also help you adjust which tools and timeframes you are using to perform your analyses.
As well, to make the indicator more user friendly, I tried to make the colours distinctively different. I was going to do different shades but it was a little difficult to visualize. As such, I have included a toggle-able legend with a breakdown of the colour codes!
That's it my friends, I hope you find it useful!
Safe trades and leave your questions, comments and feedback below!
MA, MATR, ChEx | All in One - 4CR CUPIn trade position setup, we always need to determine the market structure and manage the position sizing in a short period of decision time. Indicators such as moving average, initial stop loss and trailing stop loss are always helpful.
This indicator put all these handy tools into a single toolkit, which includes the following price action and risk management indicators:
MA - Moving Average
MATR - Moving Average less Average True Range
ChEx - Chandelier Exit
This script further enhances the setting so that you can easily customize the indicators.
For both the Moving Averages and the Moving Average less Average True Range , you can pick a type of moving average which suits your analysis style from a list of commonly used moving average formulations: namely, EMA , HMA , RMA, SMA and WMA , where EMA is selected as default.
The Moving Average less Average True Range , MATR, is usually applied as a reference to set the initial stop loss whenever opening a new position.
The abbreviation, MATR, is picked, so that this can serve as a handy reminder of a very good trading framework as elaborates as below:
M – Market Structure
A – Area of Value
T – Trigger
R – Risk Management (aka. Exit Strategy)
BTC World Price: Multi-Exchange VWAPBTC World Price: Multi-Exchange VWAP
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WHAT IT DOES
What you see above are not Bitmex candles, but this indicator's.
Bitcoin is listed on multiple exchanges. Many people have called for a single global index that would quote BTC price and volume across all exchanges: this script is such a virtual aggregate (formerly: Multi-Listed , Volume-Weighted Average Price ).
It will, independently for each tick, for any time-frame:
- Quote the price (O, H, L, C) and volume from Bitfinex (USD), Binance (USDT), bitFlyer (Yen), Bithumb (S. Korean Won), Coinbase (USD), Kraken (EUR) and even Bitmex (USD Contracts).
- Weight each price with the corresponding volume of the exchange.
- Quote the FOREX conversion rate in USD for each currency (USDJPY etc.)
- Finally return global average price (candles) in USD.
- Additionally provide (H+L)/2 etc. values.
No more "on Coinbase this" or "on Bitstamp that", you've now got a global overview!
See CoinMarketCap: Markets for reference. I've included alternative exchanges in the comments at the top of the script.
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HOW TO USE IT
Basically just add it to your chart and use the indicator's candles instead of the chart's main ticker.
By default, BTC World Price will display candles only, but you can also display OHLC & averages (in whichever style you want).
You may indeed want to hide the main symbol (top-left corner, click the 'eye' button next to its name), or switch it to something else than candles/bars (e.g. line).
Make sure "Scale Price Chart Only" is disabled if you want to use the auto-zoom feature. (if other indicators are messing your zoom, you can try to select "Line with Breaks" or "Area with Breaks" to allow these to overflow from the main window)
By clicking the triangle next to the indicator's name, you can select "Visual Order" (e.g "Bring to Front").
You can select regular Candles or Heikin-Ashi in Options.
In the Format > Inputs tab, you can select which exchanges to quote. By default, all of them are enabled.
The script also exposes the following typical values to the backend, which you can use as Price Source for other indicators: (e.g. MA, RSI, in their "Format > Input" tab)
Open Price (grey)
High Price (green)
Low Price (red)
Close Price (white)
(H + L)/2 (light blue)
(H + L + C)/3 (blue)
(O + H + L + C)/4 (purple)
They are all hidden by default (by means of maximum transparency).
In the Format > Style tab, you can change their color, transparency and style (line, area, etc), as well as uncheck Candles and Wicks to hide these.
If you are using "Indicator Last Value" and want to clear the clutter from all these values, simply uncheck them in Style. They will still be available as Price Source for other indicators.
You can also choose to scale it to the left, right (default) or "screen" (no scaling).
Once you're satisfied with your Style, you may click "Default"> "Save as default" in the botton-left. Everytime you load the indicator, it will look the same. ("Reset Settings" will reset to the script's defaults)
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Please leave feedback below in comments or pm me directly for bugs and suggestions.
: Volume Zone Oscillator & Price Zone Oscillator LB Update JRMThis is a simple update of Lazy Bear's " Indicators: Volume Zone Indicator & Price Zone Indicator" Script. PZO plots on the same indicator. The horizontal plot lines are taken primarily from two articles by Wahalil and Steckler "In The Volume Zone" May 2011, Stocks and Commodities and "Entering The Price Zone"June 2011, Stocks and Commodities. With both indicators on the same plot it is easier to see divergences between the indicators. I did add a plot line at 80 and -80 as well because that is getting into truly extreme price/volume territory where one might contemplate a close your eyes and sell or cover particularly if confirmed at a higher time frame with the expectation of some type of corrective move..
The inputs and plot lines can be edited as per Lazy Bear's original script and follows the original format. Many thanks to Lazy Bear.
Quantum Market Analyzer X7Quantum Market Analyzer X7 - Complete Study Guide
Table of Contents
1. Overview
2. Indicator Components
3. Signal Interpretation
4. Live Market Analysis Guide
5. Best Practices
6. Limitations and Considerations
7. Risk Disclaimer
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Overview
The Quantum Market Analyzer X7 is a comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis indicator that combines traditional and modern analytical methods. It aggregates signals from multiple technical indicators across seven key analysis categories to provide traders with a consolidated view of market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.
Key Features:
• Multi-Indicator Analysis: Combines 20+ technical indicators
• Real-Time Dashboard: Professional interface with customizable display
• Signal Aggregation: Weighted scoring system for overall market sentiment
• Advanced Analytics: Includes Order Block detection, Supertrend, and Volume analysis
• Visual Progress Indicators: Easy-to-read progress bars for signal strength
________________________________________
Indicator Components
1. Oscillators Section
Purpose: Identifies overbought/oversold conditions and momentum changes
Included Indicators:
• RSI (14): Relative Strength Index - momentum oscillator
• Stochastic (14): Compares closing price to price range
• CCI (20): Commodity Channel Index - cycle identification
• Williams %R (14): Momentum indicator similar to Stochastic
• MACD (12,26,9): Moving Average Convergence Divergence
• Momentum (10): Rate of price change
• ROC (9): Rate of Change
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Volatility-based indicator
Signal Interpretation:
• Strong Buy (6+ points): Multiple oscillators indicate oversold conditions
• Buy (2-5 points): Moderate bullish momentum
• Neutral (-1 to 1 points): Balanced conditions
• Sell (-2 to -5 points): Moderate bearish momentum
• Strong Sell (-6+ points): Multiple oscillators indicate overbought conditions
2. Moving Averages Section
Purpose: Determines trend direction and strength
Included Indicators:
• SMA: 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 periods
• EMA: 10, 20, 50 periods
Signal Logic:
• Price >2% above MA = Strong Buy (+2)
• Price above MA = Buy (+1)
• Price below MA = Sell (-1)
• Price >2% below MA = Strong Sell (-2)
Signal Interpretation:
• Strong Buy (6+ points): Price well above multiple MAs, strong uptrend
• Buy (2-5 points): Price above most MAs, bullish trend
• Neutral (-1 to 1 points): Mixed MA signals, consolidation
• Sell (-2 to -5 points): Price below most MAs, bearish trend
• Strong Sell (-6+ points): Price well below multiple MAs, strong downtrend
3. Order Block Analysis
Purpose: Identifies institutional support/resistance levels and breakouts
How It Works:
• Detects historical levels where large orders were placed
• Monitors price behavior around these levels
• Identifies breakouts from established order blocks
Signal Types:
• BULLISH BRK (+2): Breakout above resistance order block
• BEARISH BRK (-2): Breakdown below support order block
• ABOVE SUP (+1): Price holding above support
• BELOW RES (-1): Price rejected at resistance
• NEUTRAL (0): No significant order block interaction
4. Supertrend Analysis
Purpose: Trend following indicator based on Average True Range
Parameters:
• ATR Period: 10 (default)
• ATR Multiplier: 6.0 (default)
Signal Types:
• BULLISH (+2): Price above Supertrend line
• BEARISH (-2): Price below Supertrend line
• NEUTRAL (0): Transition period
5. Trendline/Channel Analysis
Purpose: Identifies trend channels and breakout patterns
Components:
• Dynamic trendline calculation using pivot points
• Channel width based on historical volatility
• Breakout detection algorithm
Signal Types:
• UPPER BRK (+2): Breakout above upper channel
• LOWER BRK (-2): Breakdown below lower channel
• ABOVE MID (+1): Price above channel midline
• BELOW MID (-1): Price below channel midline
6. Volume Analysis
Purpose: Confirms price movements with volume data
Components:
• Volume spikes detection
• On Balance Volume (OBV)
• Volume Price Trend (VPT)
• Money Flow Index (MFI)
• Accumulation/Distribution Line
Signal Calculation: Multiple volume indicators are combined to determine institutional activity and confirm price movements.
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Signal Interpretation
Overall Summary Signals
The indicator aggregates all component signals into an overall market sentiment:
Signal Score Range Interpretation Action
STRONG BUY 10+ Overwhelming bullish consensus Consider long positions
BUY 4-9 Moderate to strong bullish bias Look for long opportunities
NEUTRAL -3 to 3 Mixed signals, consolidation Wait for clearer direction
SELL -4 to -9 Moderate to strong bearish bias Look for short opportunities
STRONG SELL -10+ Overwhelming bearish consensus Consider short positions
Progress Bar Interpretation
• Filled bars indicate signal strength
• Green bars: Bullish signals
• Red bars: Bearish signals
• More filled bars = stronger conviction
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Live Market Analysis Guide
Step 1: Initial Assessment
1. Check Overall Summary: Start with the main signal
2. Verify with Component Analysis: Ensure signals align
3. Look for Divergences: Identify conflicting signals
Step 2: Timeframe Analysis
1. Set Appropriate Timeframe: Use 1H for intraday, 4H/1D for swing trading
2. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: Check higher timeframes for trend context
3. Entry Timing: Use lower timeframes for precise entry points
Step 3: Signal Confirmation Process.
For Buy Signals:
1. Oscillators: Look for oversold conditions (RSI <30, Stoch <20)
2. Moving Averages: Price should be above key MAs
3. Order Blocks: Confirm bounce from support levels
4. Volume: Check for accumulation patterns
5. Supertrend: Ensure bullish trend alignment.
For Sell Signals:
1. Oscillators: Look for overbought conditions (RSI >70, Stoch >80)
2. Moving Averages: Price should be below key MAs
3. Order Blocks: Confirm rejection at resistance levels
4. Volume: Check for distribution patterns
5. Supertrend: Ensure bearish trend alignment.
Step 4: Risk Management Integration
1. Signal Strength Assessment: Stronger signals = larger position size
2. Stop Loss Placement: Use Order Block levels for stops
3. Take Profit Targets: Based on channel analysis and resistance levels
4. Position Sizing: Adjust based on signal confidence
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Best Practices
Entry Strategies
1. High Conviction Entries: Wait for STRONG BUY/SELL signals
2. Confluence Trading: Look for multiple components aligning
3. Breakout Trading: Use Order Block and Trendline breakouts
4. Trend Following: Align with Supertrend direction.
Risk Management
1. Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade: Regardless of signal strength
2. Use Stop Losses: Place at invalidation levels
3. Scale Positions: Stronger signals warrant larger (but still controlled) positions
4. Diversification: Don't rely solely on one indicator.
Market Conditions
1. Trending Markets: Focus on Supertrend and MA signals
2. Range-Bound Markets: Emphasize Oscillator and Order Block signals
3. High Volatility: Reduce position sizes, widen stops
4. Low Volume: Be cautious of breakout signals.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. Signal Chasing: Don't enter after signals have already moved significantly
2. Ignoring Context: Consider overall market conditions
3. Overtrading: Wait for high-quality setups
4. Poor Risk Management: Always use appropriate position sizing
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Limitations and Considerations
Technical Limitations
1. Lagging Nature: All technical indicators are based on historical data
2. False Signals: No indicator is 100% accurate
3. Market Regime Changes: Indicators may perform differently in various market conditions
4. Whipsaws: Possible in choppy, sideways markets.
Optimal Use Cases
1. Trending Markets: Performs best in clear trending environments
2. Medium to High Volatility: Requires sufficient price movement for signals
3. Liquid Markets: Works best with adequate volume and tight spreads
4. Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Most effective when used across different timeframes.
When to Use Caution
1. Major News Events: Fundamental analysis may override technical signals
2. Market Opens/Closes: Higher volatility can create false signals
3. Low Volume Periods: Signals may be less reliable
4. Holiday Trading: Reduced participation affects signal quality
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Risk Disclaimer
IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER FROM aiTrendview
WARNING: TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS
This Quantum Market Analyzer X7 indicator ("the Indicator") is provided for educational and informational purposes only. By using this indicator, you acknowledge and agree to the following terms:
No Investment Advice
• The Indicator does NOT constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations
• All signals generated are based on historical price data and mathematical calculations
• Past performance does not guarantee future results
• No representation is made that any account will achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Risk Acknowledgment
• TRADING CARRIES SUBSTANTIAL RISK: You may lose some or all of your invested capital
• LEVERAGE AMPLIFIES RISK: Margin trading can result in losses exceeding your initial investment
• MARKET VOLATILITY: Financial markets are inherently unpredictable and volatile
• TECHNICAL ANALYSIS LIMITATIONS: No technical indicator is infallible or guarantees profitable trades.
User Responsibility
• YOU ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE for all trading decisions and their consequences
• CONDUCT YOUR OWN RESEARCH: Always perform independent analysis before making trading decisions
• CONSULT PROFESSIONALS: Seek advice from qualified financial advisors
• RISK MANAGEMENT: Implement appropriate risk management strategies
No Warranties
• The Indicator is provided "AS IS" without warranties of any kind
• aiTrendview makes no representations about the accuracy, reliability, or suitability of the Indicator
• Technical glitches, data feed issues, or calculation errors may occur
• The Indicator may not work as expected in all market conditions.
Limitation of Liability
• aiTrendview SHALL NOT BE LIABLE for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages
• This includes but is not limited to: trading losses, missed opportunities, data inaccuracies, or system failures
• MAXIMUM LIABILITY is limited to the amount paid for the indicator (if any)
Code Usage and Distribution
• This indicator is published on TradingView in accordance with TradingView's house rules
• UNAUTHORIZED MODIFICATION or redistribution of this code is prohibited
• Users may not claim ownership of this intellectual property
• Commercial use requires explicit written permission from aiTrendview.
Compliance and Regulations
• VERIFY LOCAL REGULATIONS: Ensure compliance with your jurisdiction's trading laws
• Some trading strategies may not be suitable for all investors
• Tax implications of trading are your responsibility
• Report trading activities as required by law
Specific Risk Factors
1. False Signals: The Indicator may generate incorrect buy/sell signals
2. Market Gaps: Overnight gaps can invalidate technical analysis
3. Fundamental Events: News and economic data can override technical signals
4. Liquidity Risk: Some markets may have insufficient liquidity
5. Technology Risk: Platform failures or connectivity issues may prevent order execution.
Professional Trading Warning
• THIS IS NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADING SOFTWARE: Not intended for institutional or professional trading
• NO REGULATORY APPROVAL: This indicator has not been approved by any financial regulatory authority
• EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE: Designed primarily for learning technical analysis concepts
FINAL WARNING
NEVER INVEST MONEY YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE
Trading financial instruments involves significant risk. The majority of retail traders lose money. Before using this indicator in live trading:
1. Practice on paper/demo accounts extensively
2. Start with small position sizes
3. Develop a comprehensive trading plan
4. Implement strict risk management rules
5. Continuously educate yourself about market dynamics
By using the Quantum Market Analyzer X7, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to this disclaimer. You assume full responsibility for all trading decisions and their outcomes.
Contact: For questions about this disclaimer or the indicator, contact aiTrendview through official TradingView channels only.
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This study guide and indicator are published on TradingView in compliance with TradingView's community guidelines and house rules. All users must adhere to TradingView's terms of service when using this indicator.
Document Version: 1.0
Publisher: aiTrendview
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Disclaimer
The content provided in this blog post is for educational and training purposes only. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial, investment, or trading advice. All charting and technical analysis examples are for illustrative purposes. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for every individual. Before making any financial decisions, you should consult with a qualified financial professional to assess your personal financial situation.
LibVolmLibrary "LibVolm"
This library provides a collection of core functions for volume and
money flow analysis. It offers implementations of several classic
volume-based indicators, with a focus on flexibility
for applications like multi-timeframe and session-based analysis.
Key Features:
1. **Suite of Classic Volume Indicators:** Includes standard
implementations of several foundational indicators:
- **On Balance Volume (`obv`):** A momentum indicator that
accumulates volume based on price direction.
- **Accumulation/Distribution Line (`adLine`):** Measures cumulative
money flow using the close's position within the bar's range.
- **Chaikin Money Flow (`cmf`):** An oscillator version of the ADL
that measures money flow over a specified lookback period.
2. **Anchored/Resettable Indicators:** The library includes flexible,
resettable indicators ideal for cyclical analysis:
- **Anchored VWAP (`vwap`):** Calculates a Volume Weighted Average
Price that can be reset on any user-defined `reset` condition.
It returns both the VWAP and the number of bars (`prdBars`) in
the current period.
- **Resettable CVD (`cvd`):** Computes a Cumulative Volume Delta
that can be reset on a custom `reset` anchor. The function
also tracks and returns the highest (`hi`) and lowest (`lo`)
delta values reached within the current period.
(Note: The delta sign is determined by a specific logic:
it first checks close vs. open, then close vs. prior
close, and persists the last non-zero sign).
3. **Volume Sanitization:** All functions that use the built-in
`volume` variable automatically sanitize it via an internal
function. This process replaces `na` values with 0 and ensures
no negative volume values are used, providing stable calculations.
---
**DISCLAIMER**
This library is provided "AS IS" and for informational and
educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial,
investment, or trading advice.
The author assumes no liability for any errors, inaccuracies,
or omissions in the code. Using this library to build
trading indicators or strategies is entirely at your own risk.
As a developer using this library, you are solely responsible
for the rigorous testing, validation, and performance of any
scripts you create based on these functions. The author shall
not be held liable for any financial losses incurred directly
or indirectly from the use of this library or any scripts
derived from it.
obv(price)
Calculates the On Balance Volume (OBV) cumulative indicator.
Parameters:
price (float) : series float Source price series, typically the close.
Returns: series float Cumulative OBV value.
adLine()
Computes the Accumulation/Distribution Line (AD Line).
Returns: series float Cumulative AD Line value.
cmf(length)
Computes Chaikin Money Flow (CMF).
Parameters:
length (int) : series int Lookback length for the CMF calculation.
Returns: series float CMF value.
vwap(price, reset)
Calculates an anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP).
Parameters:
price (float) : series float Source price series (usually *close*).
reset (bool) : series bool A signal that is *true* on the bar where the
accumulation should be reset.
Returns:
vwap series float The calculated Volume Weighted Average Price for the current period.
prdBars series int The number of bars that have passed since the last reset.
cvd(reset)
Calculates a resettable, cumulative Volume Delta (CVD).
It accumulates volume delta and tracks its high/low range. The
accumulation is reset to zero whenever the `reset` condition is true.
This is useful for session-based analysis, intra-bar calculations,
or any other custom-anchored accumulation.
Parameters:
reset (bool) : series bool A signal that is *true* on the bar where the
accumulation should be reset.
Returns:
cum series float The current cumulative volume delta.
hi series float The highest peak the cumulative delta has reached in the current period.
lo series float The lowest trough the cumulative delta has reached in the current period.
Universal Valuation | Lyro RSUniversal Valuation
⚠️Disclaimer: This indicator is a tool for technical analysis and does not provide guaranteed results. It should be used in conjunction with other analysis methods and proper risk management practices. The creators of this indicator are not responsible for any financial decisions made based on its signals.
Overview
The Universal Valuation indicator helps identify whether the market is undervalued/cheap or overvalued/expensive. And another mode this indicator offers is This cutting-edge tool works flawlessly ACROSS ALL TIMEFRAMES & TICKERS/CHARTS.
By combining regular TradingView indicators & some of our valuation indicators basic/simple with advanced statistical functions, this indicator offers a powerful, universal valuation tool.
Key Features
INPUTS: The Universal Valuation indicator offers flexibility through its customizable input sections. The "Indicator Settings" let you adjust lengths for the raw indicators and statistical functions. The "Signals" section defines thresholds for background color changes, helping you visually spot key market moments. The "Colors" section allows you to pick from pre-defined schemes or personalize colors for better clarity. Lastly, the "Tables" section gives you full control over the UV table’s size and positioning, including options to overlay it on the chart or place it in the allocated space.
A DEEPER INSIGHT: This indicator is built around three distinct categories: "UVM Andromeda," "UVM Sentinel," and "UVM Nexus." Each category has three different drivers. The statistical function powering this indicator is the Z-score. The Z-score is an incredibly powerful tool that helps determine if the market is overvalued/expensive or undervalued/cheap, offering critical insights for traders."
Plotting: The plotted value represents the average of all the drivers. In other words, it is the combined average of all 9 Z-scored indicators, providing a balanced and comprehensive market valuation.
What is Z-score? & Why does this system use it?
Z-score is an advanced statistical function used to measure how far a value deviates from the average in a data set. The formula for Z-score is: (x - h) / o, where x is the observed value, h is the average (mean) of the data set, and o is the standard deviation.
This system uses the Z-score because it helps determine whether the market is overvalued or undervalued based on historical data and how we apply the calculation. By measuring how far a value deviates from the average, the Z-score provides a clearer and more objective valuation of market conditions. In our case, a Z-score of -3 indicates an undervalued market, while a Z-score of 3 signals an overvalued market.
UVM Andromeda:
UVM stands for Universal Valuation Model, which is the core of this indicator. Andromeda, one of the most stunning galaxies in the universe, inspired by its name. We chose this name because a powerful indicator should not only be effective but also visually appealing.
You might be wondering what drives UVM Andromeda. The three key drivers are Price, RSI, and ROC. These indicators are pre-defined, while the "Indicator Settings" allow you to adjust the length of the Z-score calculation, refining how the model analyzes market conditions.
UVM Sentinel:
Sentinel, refers to a guard or watchman, someone or something that keeps watch and provides protection. In our case this name refers to a model that actively observes market conditions, acting as a vigilant tool that signals important shifts in valuation.
Wondering what drives UVM Sentinel? The three key drivers are BB%, CCI, and Crosby. While these indicators are simple on their own, applying our Z-score function elevates them to a whole new level, enhancing their ability to detect market conditions with greater accuracy.
UVM Nexus:
We chose the name Nexus simply because it sounds cool—there’s no deeper meaning behind it for us. However, the word itself does have a meaning; it refers to a connection or link between multiple things.
The three key drivers for UVM Nexus are the Sharpe, Sortino, and Omega ratios. These are all asset performance metrics, but by applying the Z-score, we transform them into powerful valuation indicators/drivers, giving you a deeper insight into market conditions.
Why do we use 9 different indicators instead of 1?
That's a great question, and the answer is quite simple. Think of it like this: if you have one super soldier, and they miss a shot, it’s game over. But if you have many soldiers, even if one misses, the others can step in and take the shot. The strength of using multiple indicators lies in their collective power – if one misses, the others still provide valuable insights, making the overall system more reliable.
Final Thoughts:
In our Universal Valuation indicator, you have the flexibility to customize it however you like using our inputs. The system is divided into three distinct categories, with each category containing three indicators. The value plotted on the chart is the average of all nine indicators. We apply the Z-score, an advanced statistical function, to each of these nine indicators. The final plotted average is the average of all the Z-scores, giving you a comprehensive and refined market valuation. This indicator can work on any timeframe & chart ticker.
Boxes_PlotIn the world of data visualization, heatmaps are an invaluable tool for understanding complex datasets. They use color gradients to represent the values of individual data points, allowing users to quickly identify patterns, trends, and outliers in their data. In this post, we will delve into the history of heatmaps, and then discuss how its implemented.
The "Boxes_Plot" library is a powerful and versatile tool for visualizing multiple indicators on a trading chart using colored boxes, commonly known as heatmaps. These heatmaps provide a user-friendly and efficient method for analyzing the performance and trends of various indicators simultaneously. The library can be customized to display multiple charts, adjust the number of rows, and set the appropriate offset for proper spacing. This allows traders to gain insights into the market and make informed decisions.
Heatmaps with cells are interesting and useful for several reasons. Firstly, they allow for the visualization of large datasets in a compact and organized manner. This is especially beneficial when working with multiple indicators, as it enables traders to easily compare and contrast their performance. Secondly, heatmaps provide a clear and intuitive representation of the data, making it easier for traders to identify trends and patterns. Finally, heatmaps offer a visually appealing way to present complex information, which can help to engage and maintain the interest of traders.
History of Heatmaps
The concept of heatmaps can be traced back to the 19th century when French cartographer and sociologist Charles Joseph Minard used color gradients to visualize statistical data. He is well-known for his 1869 map, which depicted Napoleon's disastrous Russian campaign of 1812 using a color gradient to represent the dwindling size of Napoleon's army.
In the 20th century, heatmaps gained popularity in the fields of biology and genetics, where they were used to visualize gene expression data. In the early 2000s, heatmaps found their way into the world of finance, where they are now used to display stock market data, such as price, volume, and performance.
The boxes_plot function in the library expects a normalized value from 0 to 100 as input. Normalizing the data ensures that all values are on a consistent scale, making it easier to compare different indicators. The function also allows for easy customization, enabling users to adjust the number of rows displayed, the size of the boxes, and the offset for proper spacing.
One of the key features of the library is its ability to automatically scale the chart to the screen. This ensures that the heatmap remains clear and visible, regardless of the size or resolution of the user's monitor. This functionality is essential for traders who may be using various devices and screen sizes, as it enables them to easily access and interpret the heatmap without needing to make manual adjustments.
In order to create a heatmap using the boxes_plot function, users need to supply several parameters:
1. Source: An array of floating-point values representing the indicator values to display.
2. Name: An array of strings representing the names of the indicators.
3. Boxes_per_row: The number of boxes to display per row.
4. Offset (optional): An integer to offset the boxes horizontally (default: 0).
5. Scale (optional): A floating-point value to scale the size of the boxes (default: 1).
The library also includes a gradient function (grad) that is used to generate the colors for the heatmap. This function is responsible for determining the appropriate color based on the value of the indicator, with higher values typically represented by warmer colors such as red and lower values by cooler colors such as blue.
Implementing Heatmaps as a Pine Script Library
In this section, we'll explore how to create a Pine Script library that can be used to generate heatmaps for various indicators on the TradingView platform. The library utilizes colored boxes to represent the values of multiple indicators, making it simple to visualize complex data.
We'll now go over the key components of the code:
grad(src) function: This function takes an integer input 'src' and returns a color based on a predefined color gradient. The gradient ranges from dark blue (#1500FF) for low values to dark red (#FF0000) for high values.
boxes_plot() function: This is the main function of the library, and it takes the following parameters:
source: an array of floating-point values representing the indicator values to display
name: an array of strings representing the names of the indicators
boxes_per_row: the number of boxes to display per row
offset (optional): an integer to offset the boxes horizontally (default: 0)
scale (optional): a floating-point value to scale the size of the boxes (default: 1)
The function first calculates the screen size and unit size based on the visible chart area. Then, it creates an array of box objects representing each data point. Each box is assigned a color based on the value of the data point using the grad() function. The boxes are then plotted on the chart using the box.new() function.
Example Usage:
In the example provided in the source code, we use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator as the input data for the heatmap. We create two arrays, 'data_1' containing the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator values, and 'data_names_1' containing the names of the indicators. We then call the 'boxes_plot()' function with these arrays, specifying the desired number of boxes per row, offset, and scale.
Conclusion
Heatmaps are a versatile and powerful data visualization tool with a rich history, spanning multiple fields of study. By implementing a heatmap library in Pine Script, we can enhance the capabilities of the TradingView platform, making it easier for users to visualize and understand complex financial data. The provided library can be easily customized and extended to suit various use cases and can be a valuable addition to any trader's toolbox.
Library "Boxes_Plot"
boxes_plot(source, name, boxes_per_row, offset, scale)
Parameters:
source (float ) : - an array of floating-point values representing the indicator values to display
name (string ) : - an array of strings representing the names of the indicators
boxes_per_row (int) : - the number of boxes to display per row
offset (int) : - an optional integer to offset the boxes horizontally (default: 0)
scale (float) : - an optional floating-point value to scale the size of the boxes (default: 1)
Radar RiderThe Radar Rider indicator is a powerful tool that combines multiple technical indicators into a single spider plot, providing traders with a comprehensive view of market conditions. This article will delve into the workings of each built-in indicator and their arrangement within the spider plot. To better understand the structure of the script, let's first examine some of the primary functions and how they are utilized in the script.
Normalize Function: normalize(close, len)
The normalize function takes the close price and a length as arguments and normalizes the price data by scaling it between 0 and 1, making it easier to compare different indicators.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Filter: bes(source, alpha)
The EMA filter is used to smooth out data using an exponential moving average, with the given alpha value defining the level of smoothing. This helps reduce noise and enhance the trend-following characteristics of the indicators.
Maximum and Minimum Functions: max(src) and min(src)
These functions find the maximum and minimum values of the input data over a certain period, respectively. These values are used in the normalization process and can help identify extreme conditions in the market.
Min-Max Function: min_max(src)
The min-max function scales the input data between 0 and 100 by dividing the difference between the data point and the minimum value by the range between the maximum and minimum values. This standardizes the data, making it easier to compare across different indicators.
Slope Function: slope(source, length, n_len, pre_smoothing = 0.15, post_smoothing = 0.7)
The slope function calculates the slope of a given data source over a specified length, and then normalizes it using the provided normalization length. Pre-smoothing and post-smoothing values can be adjusted to control the level of smoothing applied to the data before and after calculating the slope.
Percent Function: percent(x, y)
The percent function calculates the percentage difference between two values, x and y. This is useful for comparing the relative change in different indicators.
In the given code, there are multiple indicators included. Here, we will discuss each of them in detail.
EMA Diff:
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Diff is the difference between two EMA values of different lengths. The EMA is a type of moving average that gives more weight to recent data points. The EMA Diff helps traders identify trends and potential trend reversals. In the code, the EMA Diff is calculated using the ema_diff() function, which takes length, close, filter, and len_norm as parameters.
Percent Rank EMA Diff:
The Percent Rank EMA Diff is the percentage rank of the EMA Diff within a given range. It helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions in the market. In the code, the Percent Rank EMA Diff is calculated using the percent_rank_ema_diff() function, which takes length, close, filter, and len_norm as parameters.
EMA Diff Longer:
The EMA Diff Longer is the difference between two EMA values of different lengths, similar to EMA Diff but with a longer period. In the code, the EMA Diff Longer is calculated using the ema_diff_longer() function, which takes length, close, filter, and len_norm as parameters.
RSI Filter:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI Filter is the RSI value passed through a filter to smooth out the data. In the code, the RSI Filter is calculated using the rsi_filter() function, which takes length, close, and filter as parameters.
RSI Diff Normalized:
The RSI Diff Normalized is the normalized value of the derivative of the RSI. It helps traders identify potential trend reversals in the market. In the code, the RSI Diff Normalized is calculated using the rsi_diff_normalized() function, which takes length, close, filter, len_mad, and len_norm as parameters.
Z Score:
The Z Score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. In the context of the code, the Z Score is calculated for the closing price of a security. The z_score() function takes length, close, filter, and len_norm as parameters.
EMA Normalized:
The EMA Normalized is the normalized value of the EMA, which helps traders identify trends and potential trend reversals in the market. In the code, the EMA Normalized is calculated using the ema_normalized() function, which takes length, close, filter, and len_norm as parameters.
WMA Volume Normalized:
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) Volume Normalized is the normalized value of the WMA of the volume. It helps traders identify volume trends and potential trend reversals in the market. In the code, the WMA Volume Normalized is calculated using the wma_volume_normalized() function, which takes length, volume, filter, and len_norm as parameters.
EMA Close Diff Normalized:
The EMA Close Diff Normalized is the normalized value of the derivative of the EMA of the closing price. It helps traders identify potential trend reversals in the market. In the code, the EMA Close Diff Normalized is calculated using the ema_close_diff_normalized() function, which takes length, close, filter, len_mad, and len_norm as parameters.
Momentum Normalized:
The Momentum Normalized is the normalized value of the momentum, which measures the rate of change of a security's price. It helps traders identify trends and potential trend reversals in the market. In the code, the Momentum Normalized is calculated using the momentum_normalized() function, which takes length, close, filter, and len_norm as parameters.
Slope Normalized:
The Slope Normalized is the normalized value of the slope, which measures the rate of change of a security's price over a specified period. It helps traders identify trends and potential trend reversals in the market. In the code, the Slope Normalized is calculated using the slope_normalized() function, which takes length, close, filter, and len_norm as parameters.
Trend Intensity:
Trend Intensity is a measure of the strength of a security's price trend. It is based on the difference between the average of price increases and the average of price decreases over a given period. The trend_intensity() function in the code calculates the Trend Intensity by taking length, close, filter, and len_norm as parameters.
Volatility Ratio:
The Volatility Ratio is a measure of the volatility of a security's price, calculated as the ratio of the True Range (TR) to the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the TR. The volatility_ratio() function in the code calculates the Volatility Ratio by taking length, high, low, close, and filter as parameters.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI):
The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a momentum-based oscillator used to help determine when an investment vehicle is reaching a condition of being overbought or oversold. The CCI is calculated as the difference between the mean price of a security and its moving average, divided by the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the mean price. In the code, the CCI is calculated using the cci() function, which takes length, high, low, close, and filter as parameters.
These indicators are combined in the code to create a comprehensive trading strategy that considers multiple factors such as trend strength, momentum, volatility, and overbought/oversold conditions. The combined analysis provided by these indicators can help traders make informed decisions and improve their chances of success in the market.
The Radar Rider indicator is a powerful tool that combines multiple technical indicators into a single, easy-to-read visualization. By understanding the inner workings of each built-in indicator and their arrangement within the spider plot, traders can better interpret market conditions and make informed trading decisions.
ERDAL SARIDAS Visual RSIOne-stop shop for all your divergence needs, including:
(1) A single metric for divergence strength across multiple indicators.
(2) Labels that make it easy to spot where the truly strong divergence is by showing the overall divergence strength value along with the number of divergent indicators. Hovering over the label shows a breakdown of each divergent indicator and its individual divergence strength value.
(3) Fully customizable, including inputs for pivot lengths, divergence types, and weights for every component of the divergence strength calculation. This allows you to quickly and easily optimize the output for any chart. Don't worry, the default settings will have you covered if you're not interested in what's going on under the hood.
The Divergence Strength Calculation:
The total divergence strength value is the sum of the divergence strengths of all indicators for which divergence was detected at a given bar. Each indicator's individual divergence strength is comprised of two basic components: (1) |ΔPrice| - the magnitude of the change in price over the divergence period (pivot-to-pivot), and (2) |ΔIndicator| - the magnitude of the change in indicator value over the divergence period.
Because different indicators' scales and volatility can vary greatly, the Δ values are expressed in terms of standard deviation to ensure that the values are meaningful and equitable across all indicators and assets/instruments/currency pairs, etc:
|ΔIndicator| = |indicator_value_1 - indicator_value_2| / 2 * StDev(indicator_series,100)
Calculation Weights:
All components of the calculation are weighted and can be modified on the Inputs page in settings (weights are simply multipliers). For example, if you think hidden divergence should carry less weight than regular divergence, you can assign it a lesser weight. Or if you think RSI divergence is worth more than OBV divergence, you can adjust their weights accordingly. List of weights:
Regular divergence weight - default = 1
Hidden divergence weight - default = 1
ΔPrice weight - default = 0.5 (multiplied by the ΔPrice component)
ΔIndicator weight - default = 1.5 (multiplied by the ΔIndicator component)
RSI weight - default = 1.1
OBV weight - default = 0.8
MACD weight - default = 0.9
STOCH weight - default = 0.9
Development for additional indicators is ongoing, as is research into the optimal weight configuration(s).
Other Inputs:
Pivot lengths - specify the number of bars before and after each pivot high/low to consider it a valid candidate for divergence.
Lookback bars and Lookback pivots - specify the number of bars or the number of pivots to look back across.
Price sources - specify separate price sources for bullish and bearish divergence
Display settings - specify how lines and labels should display, including which divergence strength values should show the largest labels. Include/exclude specific divergence types and indicators.
Please report any bugs, or let me know if you have any enhancement suggestions or requests for additional indicators.
Adaptivity: Measures of Dominant Cycles and Price Trend [Loxx]Adaptivity: Measures of Dominant Cycles and Price Trend is an indicator that outputs adaptive lengths using various methods for dominant cycle and price trend timeframe adaptivity. While the information output from this indicator might be useful for the average trader in one off circumstances, this indicator is really meant for those need a quick comparison of dynamic length outputs who wish to fine turn algorithms and/or create adaptive indicators.
This indicator compares adaptive output lengths of all publicly known adaptive measures. Additional adaptive measures will be added as they are discovered and made public.
The first released of this indicator includes 6 measures. An additional three measures will be added with updates. Please check back regularly for new measures.
Ehers:
Autocorrelation Periodogram
Band-pass
Instantaneous Cycle
Hilbert Transformer
Dual Differentiator
Phase Accumulation (future release)
Homodyne (future release)
Jurik:
Composite Fractal Behavior (CFB)
Adam White:
Veritical Horizontal Filter (VHF) (future release)
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman's adaptive moving average (KAMA) and Tushar Chande's variable index dynamic average (VIDYA) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index (RSI), commodity channel index (CCI), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
What is this Hilbert Transformer?
An analytic signal allows for time-variable parameters and is a generalization of the phasor concept, which is restricted to time-invariant amplitude, phase, and frequency. The analytic representation of a real-valued function or signal facilitates many mathematical manipulations of the signal. For example, computing the phase of a signal or the power in the wave is much simpler using analytic signals.
The Hilbert transformer is the technique to create an analytic signal from a real one. The conventional Hilbert transformer is theoretically an infinite-length FIR filter. Even when the filter length is truncated to a useful but finite length, the induced lag is far too large to make the transformer useful for trading.
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, pages 186-187:
"I want to emphasize that the only reason for including this section is for completeness. Unless you are interested in research, I suggest you skip this section entirely. To further emphasize my point, do not use the code for trading. A vastly superior approach to compute the dominant cycle in the price data is the autocorrelation periodogram. The code is included because the reader may be able to capitalize on the algorithms in a way that I do not see. All the algorithms encapsulated in the code operate reasonably well on theoretical waveforms that have no noise component. My conjecture at this time is that the sample-to-sample noise simply swamps the computation of the rate change of phase, and therefore the resulting calculations to find the dominant cycle are basically worthless.The imaginary component of the Hilbert transformer cannot be smoothed as was done in the Hilbert transformer indicator because the smoothing destroys the orthogonality of the imaginary component."
What is the Dual Differentiator, a subset of Hilbert Transformer?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 187:
"The first algorithm to compute the dominant cycle is called the dual differentiator. In this case, the phase angle is computed from the analytic signal as the arctangent of the ratio of the imaginary component to the real component. Further, the angular frequency is defined as the rate change of phase. We can use these facts to derive the cycle period."
What is the Phase Accumulation, a subset of Hilbert Transformer?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 189:
"The next algorithm to compute the dominant cycle is the phase accumulation method. The phase accumulation method of computing the dominant cycle is perhaps the easiest to comprehend. In this technique, we measure the phase at each sample by taking the arctangent of the ratio of the quadrature component to the in-phase component. A delta phase is generated by taking the difference of the phase between successive samples. At each sample we can then look backwards, adding up the delta phases.When the sum of the delta phases reaches 360 degrees, we must have passed through one full cycle, on average.The process is repeated for each new sample.
The phase accumulation method of cycle measurement always uses one full cycle's worth of historical data.This is both an advantage and a disadvantage.The advantage is the lag in obtaining the answer scales directly with the cycle period.That is, the measurement of a short cycle period has less lag than the measurement of a longer cycle period. However, the number of samples used in making the measurement means the averaging period is variable with cycle period. longer averaging reduces the noise level compared to the signal.Therefore, shorter cycle periods necessarily have a higher out- put signal-to-noise ratio."
What is the Homodyne, a subset of Hilbert Transformer?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 192:
"The third algorithm for computing the dominant cycle is the homodyne approach. Homodyne means the signal is multiplied by itself. More precisely, we want to multiply the signal of the current bar with the complex value of the signal one bar ago. The complex conjugate is, by definition, a complex number whose sign of the imaginary component has been reversed."
What is the Instantaneous Cycle?
The Instantaneous Cycle Period Measurement was authored by John Ehlers; it is built upon his Hilbert Transform Indicator.
From his Ehlers' book Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures: Cutting-Edge DSP Technology to Improve Your Trading by John F. Ehlers, 2004, page 107:
"It is obvious that cycles exist in the market. They can be found on any chart by the most casual observer. What is not so clear is how to identify those cycles in real time and how to take advantage of their existence. When Welles Wilder first introduced the relative strength index (rsi), I was curious as to why he selected 14 bars as the basis of his calculations. I reasoned that if i knew the correct market conditions, then i could make indicators such as the rsi adaptive to those conditions. Cycles were the answer. I knew cycles could be measured. Once i had the cyclic measurement, a host of automatically adaptive indicators could follow.
Measurement of market cycles is not easy. The signal-to-noise ratio is often very low, making measurement difficult even using a good measurement technique. Additionally, the measurements theoretically involve simultaneously solving a triple infinity of parameter values. The parameters required for the general solutions were frequency, amplitude, and phase. Some standard engineering tools, like fast fourier transforms (ffs), are simply not appropriate for measuring market cycles because ffts cannot simultaneously meet the stationarity constraints and produce results with reasonable resolution. Therefore i introduced maximum entropy spectral analysis (mesa) for the measurement of market cycles. This approach, originally developed to interpret seismographic information for oil exploration, produces high-resolution outputs with an exceptionally short amount of information. A short data length improves the probability of having nearly stationary data. Stationary data means that frequency and amplitude are constant over the length of the data. I noticed over the years that the cycles were ephemeral. Their periods would be continuously increasing and decreasing. Their amplitudes also were changing, giving variable signal-to-noise ratio conditions. Although all this is going on with the cyclic components, the enduring characteristic is that generally only one tradable cycle at a time is present for the data set being used. I prefer the term dominant cycle to denote that one component. The assumption that there is only one cycle in the data collapses the difficulty of the measurement process dramatically."
What is the Band-pass Cycle?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 47:
"Perhaps the least appreciated and most underutilized filter in technical analysis is the band-pass filter. The band-pass filter simultaneously diminishes the amplitude at low frequencies, qualifying it as a detrender, and diminishes the amplitude at high frequencies, qualifying it as a data smoother. It passes only those frequency components from input to output in which the trader is interested. The filtering produced by a band-pass filter is superior because the rejection in the stop bands is related to its bandwidth. The degree of rejection of undesired frequency components is called selectivity. The band-stop filter is the dual of the band-pass filter. It rejects a band of frequency components as a notch at the output and passes all other frequency components virtually unattenuated. Since the bandwidth of the deep rejection in the notch is relatively narrow and since the spectrum of market cycles is relatively broad due to systemic noise, the band-stop filter has little application in trading."
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 59:
"The band-pass filter can be used as a relatively simple measurement of the dominant cycle. A cycle is complete when the waveform crosses zero two times from the last zero crossing. Therefore, each successive zero crossing of the indicator marks a half cycle period. We can establish the dominant cycle period as twice the spacing between successive zero crossings."
What is Composite Fractal Behavior (CFB)?
All around you mechanisms adjust themselves to their environment. From simple thermostats that react to air temperature to computer chips in modern cars that respond to changes in engine temperature, r.p.m.'s, torque, and throttle position. It was only a matter of time before fast desktop computers applied the mathematics of self-adjustment to systems that trade the financial markets.
Unlike basic systems with fixed formulas, an adaptive system adjusts its own equations. For example, start with a basic channel breakout system that uses the highest closing price of the last N bars as a threshold for detecting breakouts on the up side. An adaptive and improved version of this system would adjust N according to market conditions, such as momentum, price volatility or acceleration.
Since many systems are based directly or indirectly on cycles, another useful measure of market condition is the periodic length of a price chart's dominant cycle, (DC), that cycle with the greatest influence on price action.
The utility of this new DC measure was noted by author Murray Ruggiero in the January '96 issue of Futures Magazine. In it. Mr. Ruggiero used it to adaptive adjust the value of N in a channel breakout system. He then simulated trading 15 years of D-Mark futures in order to compare its performance to a similar system that had a fixed optimal value of N. The adaptive version produced 20% more profit!
This DC index utilized the popular MESA algorithm (a formulation by John Ehlers adapted from Burg's maximum entropy algorithm, MEM). Unfortunately, the DC approach is problematic when the market has no real dominant cycle momentum, because the mathematics will produce a value whether or not one actually exists! Therefore, we developed a proprietary indicator that does not presuppose the presence of market cycles. It's called CFB (Composite Fractal Behavior) and it works well whether or not the market is cyclic.
CFB examines price action for a particular fractal pattern, categorizes them by size, and then outputs a composite fractal size index. This index is smooth, timely and accurate
Essentially, CFB reveals the length of the market's trending action time frame. Long trending activity produces a large CFB index and short choppy action produces a small index value. Investors have found many applications for CFB which involve scaling other existing technical indicators adaptively, on a bar-to-bar basis.
What is VHF Adaptive Cycle?
Vertical Horizontal Filter (VHF) was created by Adam White to identify trending and ranging markets. VHF measures the level of trend activity, similar to ADX DI. Vertical Horizontal Filter does not, itself, generate trading signals, but determines whether signals are taken from trend or momentum indicators. Using this trend information, one is then able to derive an average cycle length.
Tristan's Multi-Indicator Reversal StrategyMulti-Indicator Reversal Strategy - Buy Low, Sell High
A comprehensive reversal detection system that combines multiple proven technical indicators to identify high-probability entry points for catching reversals at market extremes.
📊 Strategy Overview
This strategy is designed for traders who want to buy at lows and sell at highs by detecting when stocks are overextended and ready to reverse. It works by requiring multiple technical indicators to align before generating a signal, significantly reducing false entries.
Best Used On:
Timeframe: 1-hour charts (also works on 15min, 30min, 4hour)
Session: NY Trading Session (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET)
Assets: Stocks, ETFs, Crypto (particularly volatile tech stocks like ZM, TSLA, AAPL)
Trading Style: Swing trading, Intraday reversals
🔧 Technical Components
The strategy combines FIVE powerful technical indicators:
1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
3. Williams %R
4. Bollinger Bands
5. Volume Analysis
6. Divergence Detection (Optional)
🎨 Visual Signals
Entry Signals:
🟢 Green Triangle (below candle) = BUY LONG signal
🔴 Red Triangle (above candle) = SELL SHORT signal
Exit Signals:
🟣 Purple Label = Position closed (shows "x2", "x3" if multiple entries)
Additional Indicators:
💎 Aqua Diamond = Bullish divergence detected
💎 Fuchsia Diamond = Bearish divergence detected
🔵 Blue Background = NY Session active
🟡 Yellow Bar Tint = Volume spike detected
⚪ Small Circles = Near-signal conditions (2+ indicators aligned)
Live Counter:
Top corner shows: "Bull: X/4" and "Bear: X/4"
Indicates how many indicators currently align
⚙️ How to Use This Strategy
For Beginners (More Signals):
Set "Min Indicators Aligned" to 2
Turn OFF "Require Divergence"
Turn OFF "Require Volume Spike"
Turn OFF "Require Reversal Candle Pattern"
Keep "Allow Multiple Entries" OFF
This gives you more frequent signals to learn from.
For Advanced Traders (High Probability):
Set "Min Indicators Aligned" to 3 or 4
Turn ON "Require Divergence"
Turn ON "Require Volume Spike"
Turn ON "Require Reversal Candle Pattern"
Adjust stop loss to your risk tolerance
This filters for only the highest-quality setups.
Recommended Settings for 1-Hour Charts:
Min Indicators Aligned: 3
Stop Loss: 2.5%
Take Profit: 5.0%
RSI Length: 14
Williams %R Length: 14
Volume Multiplier: 1.5x
Session: NY only (for stocks)
BUY SIGNAL generated when:
2-4 indicators show oversold/bullish conditions:
RSI < 30 and turning up
MACD crossing bullish or histogram positive
Williams %R < -80 and turning up
Price at/below lower Bollinger Band
Optional confirmations (if enabled):
Bullish divergence detected
Volume spike present
Bullish reversal candle pattern
Session filter: Signals only during NY trading hours
SELL SIGNAL Generated When:
2-4 indicators show overbought/bearish conditions:
RSI > 70 and turning down
MACD crossing bearish or histogram negative
Williams %R > -20 and turning down
Price at/above upper Bollinger Band
Optional confirmations (if enabled):
Bearish divergence detected
Volume spike present
Bearish reversal candle pattern
🛡️ Risk Management Features
Automatic Stop Loss: Protects capital (default 2.5%)
Take Profit Target: Locks in gains (default 5.0%)
Pyramiding Control: Toggle to prevent position stacking
Session Filter: Avoids overnight risk and low-liquidity periods
Position Flipping: Automatically reverses when opposite signal appears
💡 Best Practices
✅ DO:
Wait for candle close before entering (built into strategy)
Use on volatile assets with clear trends
Combine with your own analysis and risk management
Backtest on your specific assets and timeframes
Start with paper trading to learn the signals
Adjust indicator requirements based on market conditions
❌ DON'T:
Use on very low timeframes (<5 min) without adjustment
Ignore the session filter on stocks
Use maximum leverage - these are reversal trades
Trade during major news events or earnings
Expect 100% win rate - focus on risk/reward ratio
📊 Performance Notes
This strategy prioritizes quality over quantity. With default settings, you may see:
2-5 signals per week on 1-hour charts
Higher win rate with stricter settings (3-4 indicators aligned)
Best performance during trending markets with clear reversals
Reduced performance in choppy, sideways markets
Tip: Adjust "Min Indicators Aligned" based on market conditions:
Trending markets: Use 3-4 (fewer but stronger signals)
Range-bound markets: Use 2 (more signals, but watch for false breakouts)
Volume-Weighted Money Flow [sgbpulse]Overview
The VWMF indicator is an advanced technical analysis tool that combines and summarizes five leading momentum and volume indicators (OBV, PVT, A/D, CMF, MFI) into one clear oscillator. The indicator helps to provide a clear picture of market sentiment by measuring the pressure from buyers and sellers. Unlike single indicators, VWMF provides a comprehensive view of market money flow by weighting existing indicators and presenting them in a uniform and understandable format.
Indicator Components
VWMF combines the following indicators, each normalized to a range of 0 to 100 before being weighted:
On-Balance Volume (OBV): A cumulative indicator that measures positive and negative volume flow.
Price-Volume Trend (PVT): Similar to OBV, but incorporates relative price change for a more precise measure.
Accumulation/Distribution Line (A/D): Used to identify whether an asset is being bought (accumulated) or sold (distributed).
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): Measures the money flow over a period based on the close price's position relative to the candle's range.
Money Flow Index (MFI): A momentum oscillator that combines price and volume to measure buying and selling pressure.
Understanding the Normalized Oscillators
The indicator combines the five different momentum indicators by normalizing each one to a uniform range of 0 to 100 .
Why is Normalization Important?
Indicators like OBV, PVT, and the A/D Line are cumulative indicators whose values can become very large. To assess their trend, we use a Moving Average as a dynamic reference line . The Moving Average allows us to understand whether the indicator is currently trending up or down relative to its average behavior over time.
How Does Normalization Work?
Our normalization fully preserves the original trend of each indicator.
For Cumulative Indicators (OBV, PVT, A/D): We calculate the difference between the current indicator value and its Moving Average. This difference is then passed to the normalization process.
- If the indicator is above its Moving Average, the difference will be positive, and the normalized value will be above 50.
- If the indicator is below its Moving Average, the difference will be negative, and the normalized value will be below 50.
Handling Extreme Values: To overcome the issue of extreme values in indicators like OBV, PVT, and the A/D Line , the function calculates the highest absolute value over the selected period. This value is used to prevent sharp spikes or drops in a single indicator from compromising the accuracy of the normalization over time. It's a sophisticated method that ensures the oscillators remain relevant and accurate.
For Bounded Indicators (CMF, MFI): These indicators already operate within a known range (for example, CMF is between -1 and 1, and MFI is between 0 and 100), so they are normalized directly without an additional reference line.
Reference Line Settings:
Moving Average Type: Allows the user to choose between a Simple Moving Average (SMA) and an Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Volume Flow MA Length: Allows the user to set the lookback period for the Moving Average, which affects the indicator's sensitivity.
The 50 line serves as the new "center line." This ensures that, even after normalization, the determination of whether a specific indicator supports a bullish or bearish trend remains clear.
Settings and Visual Tools
The indicator offers several customization options to provide a rich analysis experience:
VWMF Oscillator (Blue Line): Represents the weighted average of all five indicators. Values above 50 indicate bullish momentum, and values below 50 indicate bearish momentum.
Strength Metrics (Bullish/Bearish Strength %): Two metrics that appear on the status line, showing the percentage of indicators supporting the current trend. They range from 0% to 100%, providing a quick view of the strength of the consensus.
Dynamic Background Colors: The background color of the chart automatically changes to bullish (a blue shade by default) or bearish (a default brown-gray shade) based on the trend. The transparency of the color shows the consensus strength—the more opaque the background, the more indicators support the trend.
Advanced Settings:
- Background Color Logic: Allows the user to choose the trigger for the background color: Weighted Value (based on the combined oscillator) or Strength (based on the majority of individual indicators).
- Weights: Provides full control over the weight of each of the five indicators in the final oscillator.
Using the Data Window
TradingView provides a useful Data Window that allows you to see the exact numerical values of each normalized oscillator separately, in addition to the trend strength data.
You can use this window to:
Get more detailed information on each indicator: Viewing the precise numerical data of each of the five indicators can help in making trading decisions.
Calibrate weights: If you want to manually adjust the indicator weights (in the settings menu), you can do so while tracking the impact of each indicator on the weighted oscillator in the Data Window.
The indicator's default setting is an equal weight of 20% for each of the five indicators.
Alert Conditions
The indicator comes with a variety of built-in alerts that can be configured through the TradingView alerts menu:
VWMF Cross Above 50: An alert when the VWMF oscillator crosses above the 50 line, indicating a potential bullish momentum shift.
VWMF Cross Below 50: An alert when the VWMF oscillator crosses below the 50 line, indicating a potential bearish momentum shift.
Bullish Strength: High But Not Absolute Consensus: An alert when the bullish trend strength reaches 60% or more but is less than 100%, indicating a high but not absolute consensus.
Bullish Strength at 100%: An alert when all five indicators (MFI, OBV, PVT, A/D, CMF) show bullish strength, indicating a full and absolute consensus.
Bearish Strength: High But Not Absolute Consensus: An alert when the bearish trend strength reaches 60% or more but is less than 100%, indicating a high but not absolute consensus.
Bearish Strength at 100%: An alert when all five indicators (MFI, OBV, PVT, A/D, CMF) show bearish strength, indicating a full and absolute consensus.
Summary
The VWMF indicator is a powerful, all-in-one tool for analyzing market momentum, money flow, and sentiment. By combining and normalizing five different indicators into a single oscillator, it offers a holistic and accurate view of the market's underlying trend. Its dynamic visual features and customizable settings, including the ability to adjust indicator weights, provide a flexible experience for both novice and experienced traders. The built-in alerts for momentum shifts and trend consensus make it an effective tool for spotting trading opportunities with confidence. In essence, VWMF distills complex market data into clear, actionable signals.
Important Note: Trading Risk
This indicator is intended for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for trading in any form whatsoever.
Trading in financial markets involves significant risk of capital loss. It is important to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
Tensor Market Analysis Engine (TMAE)# Tensor Market Analysis Engine (TMAE)
## Advanced Multi-Dimensional Mathematical Analysis System
*Where Quantum Mathematics Meets Market Structure*
---
## 🎓 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The Tensor Market Analysis Engine represents a revolutionary synthesis of three cutting-edge mathematical frameworks that have never before been combined for comprehensive market analysis. This indicator transcends traditional technical analysis by implementing advanced mathematical concepts from quantum mechanics, information theory, and fractal geometry.
### 🌊 Multi-Dimensional Volatility with Jump Detection
**Hawkes Process Implementation:**
The TMAE employs a sophisticated Hawkes process approximation for detecting self-exciting market jumps. Unlike traditional volatility measures that treat price movements as independent events, the Hawkes process recognizes that market shocks cluster and exhibit memory effects.
**Mathematical Foundation:**
```
Intensity λ(t) = μ + Σ α(t - Tᵢ)
```
Where market jumps at times Tᵢ increase the probability of future jumps through the decay function α, controlled by the Hawkes Decay parameter (0.5-0.99).
**Mahalanobis Distance Calculation:**
The engine calculates volatility jumps using multi-dimensional Mahalanobis distance across up to 5 volatility dimensions:
- **Dimension 1:** Price volatility (standard deviation of returns)
- **Dimension 2:** Volume volatility (normalized volume fluctuations)
- **Dimension 3:** Range volatility (high-low spread variations)
- **Dimension 4:** Correlation volatility (price-volume relationship changes)
- **Dimension 5:** Microstructure volatility (intrabar positioning analysis)
This creates a volatility state vector that captures market behavior impossible to detect with traditional single-dimensional approaches.
### 📐 Hurst Exponent Regime Detection
**Fractal Market Hypothesis Integration:**
The TMAE implements advanced Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis to calculate the Hurst exponent in real-time, providing dynamic regime classification:
- **H > 0.6:** Trending (persistent) markets - momentum strategies optimal
- **H < 0.4:** Mean-reverting (anti-persistent) markets - contrarian strategies optimal
- **H ≈ 0.5:** Random walk markets - breakout strategies preferred
**Adaptive R/S Analysis:**
Unlike static implementations, the TMAE uses adaptive windowing that adjusts to market conditions:
```
H = log(R/S) / log(n)
```
Where R is the range of cumulative deviations and S is the standard deviation over period n.
**Dynamic Regime Classification:**
The system employs hysteresis to prevent regime flipping, requiring sustained Hurst values before regime changes are confirmed. This prevents false signals during transitional periods.
### 🔄 Transfer Entropy Analysis
**Information Flow Quantification:**
Transfer entropy measures the directional flow of information between price and volume, revealing lead-lag relationships that indicate future price movements:
```
TE(X→Y) = Σ p(yₜ₊₁, yₜ, xₜ) log
```
**Causality Detection:**
- **Volume → Price:** Indicates accumulation/distribution phases
- **Price → Volume:** Suggests retail participation or momentum chasing
- **Balanced Flow:** Market equilibrium or transition periods
The system analyzes multiple lag periods (2-20 bars) to capture both immediate and structural information flows.
---
## 🔧 COMPREHENSIVE INPUT SYSTEM
### Core Parameters Group
**Primary Analysis Window (10-100, Default: 50)**
The fundamental lookback period affecting all calculations. Optimization by timeframe:
- **1-5 minute charts:** 20-30 (rapid adaptation to micro-movements)
- **15 minute-1 hour:** 30-50 (balanced responsiveness and stability)
- **4 hour-daily:** 50-100 (smooth signals, reduced noise)
- **Asset-specific:** Cryptocurrency 20-35, Stocks 35-50, Forex 40-60
**Signal Sensitivity (0.1-2.0, Default: 0.7)**
Master control affecting all threshold calculations:
- **Conservative (0.3-0.6):** High-quality signals only, fewer false positives
- **Balanced (0.7-1.0):** Optimal risk-reward ratio for most trading styles
- **Aggressive (1.1-2.0):** Maximum signal frequency, requires careful filtering
**Signal Generation Mode:**
- **Aggressive:** Any component signals (highest frequency)
- **Confluence:** 2+ components agree (balanced approach)
- **Conservative:** All 3 components align (highest quality)
### Volatility Jump Detection Group
**Volatility Dimensions (2-5, Default: 3)**
Determines the mathematical space complexity:
- **2D:** Price + Volume volatility (suitable for clean markets)
- **3D:** + Range volatility (optimal for most conditions)
- **4D:** + Correlation volatility (advanced multi-asset analysis)
- **5D:** + Microstructure volatility (maximum sensitivity)
**Jump Detection Threshold (1.5-4.0σ, Default: 3.0σ)**
Standard deviations required for volatility jump classification:
- **Cryptocurrency:** 2.0-2.5σ (naturally volatile)
- **Stock Indices:** 2.5-3.0σ (moderate volatility)
- **Forex Major Pairs:** 3.0-3.5σ (typically stable)
- **Commodities:** 2.0-3.0σ (varies by commodity)
**Jump Clustering Decay (0.5-0.99, Default: 0.85)**
Hawkes process memory parameter:
- **0.5-0.7:** Fast decay (jumps treated as independent)
- **0.8-0.9:** Moderate clustering (realistic market behavior)
- **0.95-0.99:** Strong clustering (crisis/event-driven markets)
### Hurst Exponent Analysis Group
**Calculation Method Options:**
- **Classic R/S:** Original Rescaled Range (fast, simple)
- **Adaptive R/S:** Dynamic windowing (recommended for trading)
- **DFA:** Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (best for noisy data)
**Trending Threshold (0.55-0.8, Default: 0.60)**
Hurst value defining persistent market behavior:
- **0.55-0.60:** Weak trend persistence
- **0.65-0.70:** Clear trending behavior
- **0.75-0.80:** Strong momentum regimes
**Mean Reversion Threshold (0.2-0.45, Default: 0.40)**
Hurst value defining anti-persistent behavior:
- **0.35-0.45:** Weak mean reversion
- **0.25-0.35:** Clear ranging behavior
- **0.15-0.25:** Strong reversion tendency
### Transfer Entropy Parameters Group
**Information Flow Analysis:**
- **Price-Volume:** Classic flow analysis for accumulation/distribution
- **Price-Volatility:** Risk flow analysis for sentiment shifts
- **Multi-Timeframe:** Cross-timeframe causality detection
**Maximum Lag (2-20, Default: 5)**
Causality detection window:
- **2-5 bars:** Immediate causality (scalping)
- **5-10 bars:** Short-term flow (day trading)
- **10-20 bars:** Structural flow (swing trading)
**Significance Threshold (0.05-0.3, Default: 0.15)**
Minimum entropy for signal generation:
- **0.05-0.10:** Detect subtle information flows
- **0.10-0.20:** Clear causality only
- **0.20-0.30:** Very strong flows only
---
## 🎨 ADVANCED VISUAL SYSTEM
### Tensor Volatility Field Visualization
**Five-Layer Resonance Bands:**
The tensor field creates dynamic support/resistance zones that expand and contract based on mathematical field strength:
- **Core Layer (Purple):** Primary tensor field with highest intensity
- **Layer 2 (Neutral):** Secondary mathematical resonance
- **Layer 3 (Info Blue):** Tertiary harmonic frequencies
- **Layer 4 (Warning Gold):** Outer field boundaries
- **Layer 5 (Success Green):** Maximum field extension
**Field Strength Calculation:**
```
Field Strength = min(3.0, Mahalanobis Distance × Tensor Intensity)
```
The field amplitude adjusts to ATR and mathematical distance, creating dynamic zones that respond to market volatility.
**Radiation Line Network:**
During active tensor states, the system projects directional radiation lines showing field energy distribution:
- **8 Directional Rays:** Complete angular coverage
- **Tapering Segments:** Progressive transparency for natural visual flow
- **Pulse Effects:** Enhanced visualization during volatility jumps
### Dimensional Portal System
**Portal Mathematics:**
Dimensional portals visualize regime transitions using category theory principles:
- **Green Portals (◉):** Trending regime detection (appear below price for support)
- **Red Portals (◎):** Mean-reverting regime (appear above price for resistance)
- **Yellow Portals (○):** Random walk regime (neutral positioning)
**Tensor Trail Effects:**
Each portal generates 8 trailing particles showing mathematical momentum:
- **Large Particles (●):** Strong mathematical signal
- **Medium Particles (◦):** Moderate signal strength
- **Small Particles (·):** Weak signal continuation
- **Micro Particles (˙):** Signal dissipation
### Information Flow Streams
**Particle Stream Visualization:**
Transfer entropy creates flowing particle streams indicating information direction:
- **Upward Streams:** Volume leading price (accumulation phases)
- **Downward Streams:** Price leading volume (distribution phases)
- **Stream Density:** Proportional to information flow strength
**15-Particle Evolution:**
Each stream contains 15 particles with progressive sizing and transparency, creating natural flow visualization that makes information transfer immediately apparent.
### Fractal Matrix Grid System
**Multi-Timeframe Fractal Levels:**
The system calculates and displays fractal highs/lows across five Fibonacci periods:
- **8-Period:** Short-term fractal structure
- **13-Period:** Intermediate-term patterns
- **21-Period:** Primary swing levels
- **34-Period:** Major structural levels
- **55-Period:** Long-term fractal boundaries
**Triple-Layer Visualization:**
Each fractal level uses three-layer rendering:
- **Shadow Layer:** Widest, darkest foundation (width 5)
- **Glow Layer:** Medium white core line (width 3)
- **Tensor Layer:** Dotted mathematical overlay (width 1)
**Intelligent Labeling System:**
Smart spacing prevents label overlap using ATR-based minimum distances. Labels include:
- **Fractal Period:** Time-based identification
- **Topological Class:** Mathematical complexity rating (0, I, II, III)
- **Price Level:** Exact fractal price
- **Mahalanobis Distance:** Current mathematical field strength
- **Hurst Exponent:** Current regime classification
- **Anomaly Indicators:** Visual strength representations (○ ◐ ● ⚡)
### Wick Pressure Analysis
**Rejection Level Mathematics:**
The system analyzes candle wick patterns to project future pressure zones:
- **Upper Wick Analysis:** Identifies selling pressure and resistance zones
- **Lower Wick Analysis:** Identifies buying pressure and support zones
- **Pressure Projection:** Extends lines forward based on mathematical probability
**Multi-Layer Glow Effects:**
Wick pressure lines use progressive transparency (1-8 layers) creating natural glow effects that make pressure zones immediately visible without cluttering the chart.
### Enhanced Regime Background
**Dynamic Intensity Mapping:**
Background colors reflect mathematical regime strength:
- **Deep Transparency (98% alpha):** Subtle regime indication
- **Pulse Intensity:** Based on regime strength calculation
- **Color Coding:** Green (trending), Red (mean-reverting), Neutral (random)
**Smoothing Integration:**
Regime changes incorporate 10-bar smoothing to prevent background flicker while maintaining responsiveness to genuine regime shifts.
### Color Scheme System
**Six Professional Themes:**
- **Dark (Default):** Professional trading environment optimization
- **Light:** High ambient light conditions
- **Classic:** Traditional technical analysis appearance
- **Neon:** High-contrast visibility for active trading
- **Neutral:** Minimal distraction focus
- **Bright:** Maximum visibility for complex setups
Each theme maintains mathematical accuracy while optimizing visual clarity for different trading environments and personal preferences.
---
## 📊 INSTITUTIONAL-GRADE DASHBOARD
### Tensor Field Status Section
**Field Strength Display:**
Real-time Mahalanobis distance calculation with dynamic emoji indicators:
- **⚡ (Lightning):** Extreme field strength (>1.5× threshold)
- **● (Solid Circle):** Strong field activity (>1.0× threshold)
- **○ (Open Circle):** Normal field state
**Signal Quality Rating:**
Democratic algorithm assessment:
- **ELITE:** All 3 components aligned (highest probability)
- **STRONG:** 2 components aligned (good probability)
- **GOOD:** 1 component active (moderate probability)
- **WEAK:** No clear component signals
**Threshold and Anomaly Monitoring:**
- **Threshold Display:** Current mathematical threshold setting
- **Anomaly Level (0-100%):** Combined volatility and volume spike measurement
- **>70%:** High anomaly (red warning)
- **30-70%:** Moderate anomaly (orange caution)
- **<30%:** Normal conditions (green confirmation)
### Tensor State Analysis Section
**Mathematical State Classification:**
- **↑ BULL (Tensor State +1):** Trending regime with bullish bias
- **↓ BEAR (Tensor State -1):** Mean-reverting regime with bearish bias
- **◈ SUPER (Tensor State 0):** Random walk regime (neutral)
**Visual State Gauge:**
Five-circle progression showing tensor field polarity:
- **🟢🟢🟢⚪⚪:** Strong bullish mathematical alignment
- **⚪⚪🟡⚪⚪:** Neutral/transitional state
- **⚪⚪🔴🔴🔴:** Strong bearish mathematical alignment
**Trend Direction and Phase Analysis:**
- **📈 BULL / 📉 BEAR / ➡️ NEUTRAL:** Primary trend classification
- **🌪️ CHAOS:** Extreme information flow (>2.0 flow strength)
- **⚡ ACTIVE:** Strong information flow (1.0-2.0 flow strength)
- **😴 CALM:** Low information flow (<1.0 flow strength)
### Trading Signals Section
**Real-Time Signal Status:**
- **🟢 ACTIVE / ⚪ INACTIVE:** Long signal availability
- **🔴 ACTIVE / ⚪ INACTIVE:** Short signal availability
- **Components (X/3):** Active algorithmic components
- **Mode Display:** Current signal generation mode
**Signal Strength Visualization:**
Color-coded component count:
- **Green:** 3/3 components (maximum confidence)
- **Aqua:** 2/3 components (good confidence)
- **Orange:** 1/3 components (moderate confidence)
- **Gray:** 0/3 components (no signals)
### Performance Metrics Section
**Win Rate Monitoring:**
Estimated win rates based on signal quality with emoji indicators:
- **🔥 (Fire):** ≥60% estimated win rate
- **👍 (Thumbs Up):** 45-59% estimated win rate
- **⚠️ (Warning):** <45% estimated win rate
**Mathematical Metrics:**
- **Hurst Exponent:** Real-time fractal dimension (0.000-1.000)
- **Information Flow:** Volume/price leading indicators
- **📊 VOL:** Volume leading price (accumulation/distribution)
- **💰 PRICE:** Price leading volume (momentum/speculation)
- **➖ NONE:** Balanced information flow
- **Volatility Classification:**
- **🔥 HIGH:** Above 1.5× jump threshold
- **📊 NORM:** Normal volatility range
- **😴 LOW:** Below 0.5× jump threshold
### Market Structure Section (Large Dashboard)
**Regime Classification:**
- **📈 TREND:** Hurst >0.6, momentum strategies optimal
- **🔄 REVERT:** Hurst <0.4, contrarian strategies optimal
- **🎲 RANDOM:** Hurst ≈0.5, breakout strategies preferred
**Mathematical Field Analysis:**
- **Dimensions:** Current volatility space complexity (2D-5D)
- **Hawkes λ (Lambda):** Self-exciting jump intensity (0.00-1.00)
- **Jump Status:** 🚨 JUMP (active) / ✅ NORM (normal)
### Settings Summary Section (Large Dashboard)
**Active Configuration Display:**
- **Sensitivity:** Current master sensitivity setting
- **Lookback:** Primary analysis window
- **Theme:** Active color scheme
- **Method:** Hurst calculation method (Classic R/S, Adaptive R/S, DFA)
**Dashboard Sizing Options:**
- **Small:** Essential metrics only (mobile/small screens)
- **Normal:** Balanced information density (standard desktop)
- **Large:** Maximum detail (multi-monitor setups)
**Position Options:**
- **Top Right:** Standard placement (avoids price action)
- **Top Left:** Wide chart optimization
- **Bottom Right:** Recent price focus (scalping)
- **Bottom Left:** Maximum price visibility (swing trading)
---
## 🎯 SIGNAL GENERATION LOGIC
### Multi-Component Convergence System
**Component Signal Architecture:**
The TMAE generates signals through sophisticated component analysis rather than simple threshold crossing:
**Volatility Component:**
- **Jump Detection:** Mahalanobis distance threshold breach
- **Hawkes Intensity:** Self-exciting process activation (>0.2)
- **Multi-dimensional:** Considers all volatility dimensions simultaneously
**Hurst Regime Component:**
- **Trending Markets:** Price above SMA-20 with positive momentum
- **Mean-Reverting Markets:** Price at Bollinger Band extremes
- **Random Markets:** Bollinger squeeze breakouts with directional confirmation
**Transfer Entropy Component:**
- **Volume Leadership:** Information flow from volume to price
- **Volume Spike:** Volume 110%+ above 20-period average
- **Flow Significance:** Above entropy threshold with directional bias
### Democratic Signal Weighting
**Signal Mode Implementation:**
- **Aggressive Mode:** Any single component triggers signal
- **Confluence Mode:** Minimum 2 components must agree
- **Conservative Mode:** All 3 components must align
**Momentum Confirmation:**
All signals require momentum confirmation:
- **Long Signals:** RSI >50 AND price >EMA-9
- **Short Signals:** RSI <50 AND price 0.6):**
- **Increase Sensitivity:** Catch momentum continuation
- **Lower Mean Reversion Threshold:** Avoid counter-trend signals
- **Emphasize Volume Leadership:** Institutional accumulation/distribution
- **Tensor Field Focus:** Use expansion for trend continuation
- **Signal Mode:** Aggressive or Confluence for trend following
**Range-Bound Markets (Hurst <0.4):**
- **Decrease Sensitivity:** Avoid false breakouts
- **Lower Trending Threshold:** Quick regime recognition
- **Focus on Price Leadership:** Retail sentiment extremes
- **Fractal Grid Emphasis:** Support/resistance trading
- **Signal Mode:** Conservative for high-probability reversals
**Volatile Markets (High Jump Frequency):**
- **Increase Hawkes Decay:** Recognize event clustering
- **Higher Jump Threshold:** Avoid noise signals
- **Maximum Dimensions:** Capture full volatility complexity
- **Reduce Position Sizing:** Risk management adaptation
- **Enhanced Visuals:** Maximum information for rapid decisions
**Low Volatility Markets (Low Jump Frequency):**
- **Decrease Jump Threshold:** Capture subtle movements
- **Lower Hawkes Decay:** Treat moves as independent
- **Reduce Dimensions:** Simplify analysis
- **Increase Position Sizing:** Capitalize on compressed volatility
- **Minimal Visuals:** Reduce distraction in quiet markets
---
## 🚀 ADVANCED TRADING STRATEGIES
### The Mathematical Convergence Method
**Entry Protocol:**
1. **Fractal Grid Approach:** Monitor price approaching significant fractal levels
2. **Tensor Field Confirmation:** Verify field expansion supporting direction
3. **Portal Signal:** Wait for dimensional portal appearance
4. **ELITE/STRONG Quality:** Only trade highest quality mathematical signals
5. **Component Consensus:** Confirm 2+ components agree in Confluence mode
**Example Implementation:**
- Price approaching 21-period fractal high
- Tensor field expanding upward (bullish mathematical alignment)
- Green portal appears below price (trending regime confirmation)
- ELITE quality signal with 3/3 components active
- Enter long position with stop below fractal level
**Risk Management:**
- **Stop Placement:** Below/above fractal level that generated signal
- **Position Sizing:** Based on Mahalanobis distance (higher distance = smaller size)
- **Profit Targets:** Next fractal level or tensor field resistance
### The Regime Transition Strategy
**Regime Change Detection:**
1. **Monitor Hurst Exponent:** Watch for persistent moves above/below thresholds
2. **Portal Color Change:** Regime transitions show different portal colors
3. **Background Intensity:** Increasing regime background intensity
4. **Mathematical Confirmation:** Wait for regime confirmation (hysteresis)
**Trading Implementation:**
- **Trending Transitions:** Trade momentum breakouts, follow trend
- **Mean Reversion Transitions:** Trade range boundaries, fade extremes
- **Random Transitions:** Trade breakouts with tight stops
**Advanced Techniques:**
- **Multi-Timeframe:** Confirm regime on higher timeframe
- **Early Entry:** Enter on regime transition rather than confirmation
- **Regime Strength:** Larger positions during strong regime signals
### The Information Flow Momentum Strategy
**Flow Detection Protocol:**
1. **Monitor Transfer Entropy:** Watch for significant information flow shifts
2. **Volume Leadership:** Strong edge when volume leads price
3. **Flow Acceleration:** Increasing flow strength indicates momentum
4. **Directional Confirmation:** Ensure flow aligns with intended trade direction
**Entry Signals:**
- **Volume → Price Flow:** Enter during accumulation/distribution phases
- **Price → Volume Flow:** Enter on momentum confirmation breaks
- **Flow Reversal:** Counter-trend entries when flow reverses
**Optimization:**
- **Scalping:** Use immediate flow detection (2-5 bar lag)
- **Swing Trading:** Use structural flow (10-20 bar lag)
- **Multi-Asset:** Compare flow between correlated assets
### The Tensor Field Expansion Strategy
**Field Mathematics:**
The tensor field expansion indicates mathematical pressure building in market structure:
**Expansion Phases:**
1. **Compression:** Field contracts, volatility decreases
2. **Tension Building:** Mathematical pressure accumulates
3. **Expansion:** Field expands rapidly with directional movement
4. **Resolution:** Field stabilizes at new equilibrium
**Trading Applications:**
- **Compression Trading:** Prepare for breakout during field contraction
- **Expansion Following:** Trade direction of field expansion
- **Reversion Trading:** Fade extreme field expansion
- **Multi-Dimensional:** Consider all field layers for confirmation
### The Hawkes Process Event Strategy
**Self-Exciting Jump Trading:**
Understanding that market shocks cluster and create follow-on opportunities:
**Jump Sequence Analysis:**
1. **Initial Jump:** First volatility jump detected
2. **Clustering Phase:** Hawkes intensity remains elevated
3. **Follow-On Opportunities:** Additional jumps more likely
4. **Decay Period:** Intensity gradually decreases
**Implementation:**
- **Jump Confirmation:** Wait for mathematical jump confirmation
- **Direction Assessment:** Use other components for direction
- **Clustering Trades:** Trade subsequent moves during high intensity
- **Decay Exit:** Exit positions as Hawkes intensity decays
### The Fractal Confluence System
**Multi-Timeframe Fractal Analysis:**
Combining fractal levels across different periods for high-probability zones:
**Confluence Zones:**
- **Double Confluence:** 2 fractal levels align
- **Triple Confluence:** 3+ fractal levels cluster
- **Mathematical Confirmation:** Tensor field supports the level
- **Information Flow:** Transfer entropy confirms direction
**Trading Protocol:**
1. **Identify Confluence:** Find 2+ fractal levels within 1 ATR
2. **Mathematical Support:** Verify tensor field alignment
3. **Signal Quality:** Wait for STRONG or ELITE signal
4. **Risk Definition:** Use fractal level for stop placement
5. **Profit Targeting:** Next major fractal confluence zone
---
## ⚠️ COMPREHENSIVE RISK MANAGEMENT
### Mathematical Position Sizing
**Mahalanobis Distance Integration:**
Position size should inversely correlate with mathematical field strength:
```
Position Size = Base Size × (Threshold / Mahalanobis Distance)
```
**Risk Scaling Matrix:**
- **Low Field Strength (<2.0):** Standard position sizing
- **Moderate Field Strength (2.0-3.0):** 75% position sizing
- **High Field Strength (3.0-4.0):** 50% position sizing
- **Extreme Field Strength (>4.0):** 25% position sizing or no trade
### Signal Quality Risk Adjustment
**Quality-Based Position Sizing:**
- **ELITE Signals:** 100% of planned position size
- **STRONG Signals:** 75% of planned position size
- **GOOD Signals:** 50% of planned position size
- **WEAK Signals:** No position or paper trading only
**Component Agreement Scaling:**
- **3/3 Components:** Full position size
- **2/3 Components:** 75% position size
- **1/3 Components:** 50% position size or skip trade
### Regime-Adaptive Risk Management
**Trending Market Risk:**
- **Wider Stops:** Allow for trend continuation
- **Trend Following:** Trade with regime direction
- **Higher Position Size:** Trend probability advantage
- **Momentum Stops:** Trail stops based on momentum indicators
**Mean-Reverting Market Risk:**
- **Tighter Stops:** Quick exits on trend continuation
- **Contrarian Positioning:** Trade against extremes
- **Smaller Position Size:** Higher reversal failure rate
- **Level-Based Stops:** Use fractal levels for stops
**Random Market Risk:**
- **Breakout Focus:** Trade only clear breakouts
- **Tight Initial Stops:** Quick exit if breakout fails
- **Reduced Frequency:** Skip marginal setups
- **Range-Based Targets:** Profit targets at range boundaries
### Volatility-Adaptive Risk Controls
**High Volatility Periods:**
- **Reduced Position Size:** Account for wider price swings
- **Wider Stops:** Avoid noise-based exits
- **Lower Frequency:** Skip marginal setups
- **Faster Exits:** Take profits more quickly
**Low Volatility Periods:**
- **Standard Position Size:** Normal risk parameters
- **Tighter Stops:** Take advantage of compressed ranges
- **Higher Frequency:** Trade more setups
- **Extended Targets:** Allow for compressed volatility expansion
### Multi-Timeframe Risk Alignment
**Higher Timeframe Trend:**
- **With Trend:** Standard or increased position size
- **Against Trend:** Reduced position size or skip
- **Neutral Trend:** Standard position size with tight management
**Risk Hierarchy:**
1. **Primary:** Current timeframe signal quality
2. **Secondary:** Higher timeframe trend alignment
3. **Tertiary:** Mathematical field strength
4. **Quaternary:** Market regime classification
---
## 📚 EDUCATIONAL VALUE AND MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS
### Advanced Mathematical Concepts
**Tensor Analysis in Markets:**
The TMAE introduces traders to tensor analysis, a branch of mathematics typically reserved for physics and advanced engineering. Tensors provide a framework for understanding multi-dimensional market relationships that scalar and vector analysis cannot capture.
**Information Theory Applications:**
Transfer entropy implementation teaches traders about information flow in markets, a concept from information theory that quantifies directional causality between variables. This provides intuition about market microstructure and participant behavior.
**Fractal Geometry in Trading:**
The Hurst exponent calculation exposes traders to fractal geometry concepts, helping understand that markets exhibit self-similar patterns across multiple timeframes. This mathematical insight transforms how traders view market structure.
**Stochastic Process Theory:**
The Hawkes process implementation introduces concepts from stochastic process theory, specifically self-exciting point processes. This provides mathematical framework for understanding why market events cluster and exhibit memory effects.
### Learning Progressive Complexity
**Beginner Mathematical Concepts:**
- **Volatility Dimensions:** Understanding multi-dimensional analysis
- **Regime Classification:** Learning market personality types
- **Signal Democracy:** Algorithmic consensus building
- **Visual Mathematics:** Interpreting mathematical concepts visually
**Intermediate Mathematical Applications:**
- **Mahalanobis Distance:** Statistical distance in multi-dimensional space
- **Rescaled Range Analysis:** Fractal dimension measurement
- **Information Entropy:** Quantifying uncertainty and causality
- **Field Theory:** Understanding mathematical fields in market context
**Advanced Mathematical Integration:**
- **Tensor Field Dynamics:** Multi-dimensional market force analysis
- **Stochastic Self-Excitation:** Event clustering and memory effects
- **Categorical Composition:** Mathematical signal combination theory
- **Topological Market Analysis:** Understanding market shape and connectivity
### Practical Mathematical Intuition
**Developing Market Mathematics Intuition:**
The TMAE serves as a bridge between abstract mathematical concepts and practical trading applications. Traders develop intuitive understanding of:
- **How markets exhibit mathematical structure beneath apparent randomness**
- **Why multi-dimensional analysis reveals patterns invisible to single-variable approaches**
- **How information flows through markets in measurable, predictable ways**
- **Why mathematical models provide probabilistic edges rather than certainties**
---
## 🔬 IMPLEMENTATION AND OPTIMIZATION
### Getting Started Protocol
**Phase 1: Observation (Week 1)**
1. **Apply with defaults:** Use standard settings on your primary trading timeframe
2. **Study visual elements:** Learn to interpret tensor fields, portals, and streams
3. **Monitor dashboard:** Observe how metrics change with market conditions
4. **No trading:** Focus entirely on pattern recognition and understanding
**Phase 2: Pattern Recognition (Week 2-3)**
1. **Identify signal patterns:** Note what market conditions produce different signal qualities
2. **Regime correlation:** Observe how Hurst regimes affect signal performance
3. **Visual confirmation:** Learn to read tensor field expansion and portal signals
4. **Component analysis:** Understand which components drive signals in different markets
**Phase 3: Parameter Optimization (Week 4-5)**
1. **Asset-specific tuning:** Adjust parameters for your specific trading instrument
2. **Timeframe optimization:** Fine-tune for your preferred trading timeframe
3. **Sensitivity adjustment:** Balance signal frequency with quality
4. **Visual customization:** Optimize colors and intensity for your trading environment
**Phase 4: Live Implementation (Week 6+)**
1. **Paper trading:** Test signals with hypothetical trades
2. **Small position sizing:** Begin with minimal risk during learning phase
3. **Performance tracking:** Monitor actual vs. expected signal performance
4. **Continuous optimization:** Refine settings based on real performance data
### Performance Monitoring System
**Signal Quality Tracking:**
- **ELITE Signal Win Rate:** Track highest quality signals separately
- **Component Performance:** Monitor which components provide best signals
- **Regime Performance:** Analyze performance across different market regimes
- **Timeframe Analysis:** Compare performance across different session times
**Mathematical Metric Correlation:**
- **Field Strength vs. Performance:** Higher field strength should correlate with better performance
- **Component Agreement vs. Win Rate:** More component agreement should improve win rates
- **Regime Alignment vs. Success:** Trading with mathematical regime should outperform
### Continuous Optimization Process
**Monthly Review Protocol:**
1. **Performance Analysis:** Review win rates, profit factors, and maximum drawdown
2. **Parameter Assessment:** Evaluate if current settings remain optimal
3. **Market Adaptation:** Adjust for changes in market character or volatility
4. **Component Weighting:** Consider if certain components should receive more/less emphasis
**Quarterly Deep Analysis:**
1. **Mathematical Model Validation:** Verify that mathematical relationships remain valid
2. **Regime Distribution:** Analyze time spent in different market regimes
3. **Signal Evolution:** Track how signal characteristics change over time
4. **Correlation Analysis:** Monitor correlations between different mathematical components
---
## 🌟 UNIQUE INNOVATIONS AND CONTRIBUTIONS
### Revolutionary Mathematical Integration
**First-Ever Implementations:**
1. **Multi-Dimensional Volatility Tensor:** First indicator to implement true tensor analysis for market volatility
2. **Real-Time Hawkes Process:** First trading implementation of self-exciting point processes
3. **Transfer Entropy Trading Signals:** First practical application of information theory for trade generation
4. **Democratic Component Voting:** First algorithmic consensus system for signal generation
5. **Fractal-Projected Signal Quality:** First system to predict signal quality at future price levels
### Advanced Visualization Innovations
**Mathematical Visualization Breakthroughs:**
- **Tensor Field Radiation:** Visual representation of mathematical field energy
- **Dimensional Portal System:** Category theory visualization for regime transitions
- **Information Flow Streams:** Real-time visual display of market information transfer
- **Multi-Layer Fractal Grid:** Intelligent spacing and projection system
- **Regime Intensity Mapping:** Dynamic background showing mathematical regime strength
### Practical Trading Innovations
**Trading System Advances:**
- **Quality-Weighted Signal Generation:** Signals rated by mathematical confidence
- **Regime-Adaptive Strategy Selection:** Automatic strategy optimization based on market personality
- **Anti-Spam Signal Protection:** Mathematical prevention of signal clustering
- **Component Performance Tracking:** Real-time monitoring of algorithmic component success
- **Field-Strength Position Sizing:** Mathematical volatility integration for risk management
---
## ⚖️ RESPONSIBLE USAGE AND LIMITATIONS
### Mathematical Model Limitations
**Understanding Model Boundaries:**
While the TMAE implements sophisticated mathematical concepts, traders must understand fundamental limitations:
- **Markets Are Not Purely Mathematical:** Human psychology, news events, and fundamental factors create unpredictable elements
- **Past Performance Limitations:** Mathematical relationships that worked historically may not persist indefinitely
- **Model Risk:** Complex models can fail during unprecedented market conditions
- **Overfitting Potential:** Highly optimized parameters may not generalize to future market conditions
### Proper Implementation Guidelines
**Risk Management Requirements:**
- **Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade:** Regardless of signal quality
- **Diversification Mandatory:** Don't rely solely on mathematical signals
- **Position Sizing Discipline:** Use mathematical field strength for sizing, not confidence
- **Stop Loss Non-Negotiable:** Every trade must have predefined risk parameters
**Realistic Expectations:**
- **Mathematical Edge, Not Certainty:** The indicator provides probabilistic advantages, not guaranteed outcomes
- **Learning Curve Required:** Complex mathematical concepts require time to master
- **Market Adaptation Necessary:** Parameters must evolve with changing market conditions
- **Continuous Education Important:** Understanding underlying mathematics improves application
### Ethical Trading Considerations
**Market Impact Awareness:**
- **Information Asymmetry:** Advanced mathematical analysis may provide advantages over other market participants
- **Position Size Responsibility:** Large positions based on mathematical signals can impact market structure
- **Sharing Knowledge:** Consider educational contributions to trading community
- **Fair Market Participation:** Use mathematical advantages responsibly within market framework
### Professional Development Path
**Skill Development Sequence:**
1. **Basic Mathematical Literacy:** Understand fundamental concepts before advanced application
2. **Risk Management Mastery:** Develop disciplined risk control before relying on complex signals
3. **Market Psychology Understanding:** Combine mathematical analysis with behavioral market insights
4. **Continuous Learning:** Stay updated on mathematical finance developments and market evolution
---
## 🔮 CONCLUSION
The Tensor Market Analysis Engine represents a quantum leap forward in technical analysis, successfully bridging the gap between advanced pure mathematics and practical trading applications. By integrating multi-dimensional volatility analysis, fractal market theory, and information flow dynamics, the TMAE reveals market structure invisible to conventional analysis while maintaining visual clarity and practical usability.
### Mathematical Innovation Legacy
This indicator establishes new paradigms in technical analysis:
- **Tensor analysis for market volatility understanding**
- **Stochastic self-excitation for event clustering prediction**
- **Information theory for causality-based trade generation**
- **Democratic algorithmic consensus for signal quality enhancement**
- **Mathematical field visualization for intuitive market understanding**
### Practical Trading Revolution
Beyond mathematical innovation, the TMAE transforms practical trading:
- **Quality-rated signals replace binary buy/sell decisions**
- **Regime-adaptive strategies automatically optimize for market personality**
- **Multi-dimensional risk management integrates mathematical volatility measures**
- **Visual mathematical concepts make complex analysis immediately interpretable**
- **Educational value creates lasting improvement in trading understanding**
### Future-Proof Design
The mathematical foundations ensure lasting relevance:
- **Universal mathematical principles transcend market evolution**
- **Multi-dimensional analysis adapts to new market structures**
- **Regime detection automatically adjusts to changing market personalities**
- **Component democracy allows for future algorithmic additions**
- **Mathematical visualization scales with increasing market complexity**
### Commitment to Excellence
The TMAE represents more than an indicator—it embodies a philosophy of bringing rigorous mathematical analysis to trading while maintaining practical utility and visual elegance. Every component, from the multi-dimensional tensor fields to the democratic signal generation, reflects a commitment to mathematical accuracy, trading practicality, and educational value.
### Trading with Mathematical Precision
In an era where markets grow increasingly complex and computational, the TMAE provides traders with mathematical tools previously available only to institutional quantitative research teams. Yet unlike academic mathematical models, the TMAE translates complex concepts into intuitive visual representations and practical trading signals.
By combining the mathematical rigor of tensor analysis, the statistical power of multi-dimensional volatility modeling, and the information-theoretic insights of transfer entropy, traders gain unprecedented insight into market structure and dynamics.
### Final Perspective
Markets, like nature, exhibit profound mathematical beauty beneath apparent chaos. The Tensor Market Analysis Engine serves as a mathematical lens that reveals this hidden order, transforming how traders perceive and interact with market structure.
Through mathematical precision, visual elegance, and practical utility, the TMAE empowers traders to see beyond the noise and trade with the confidence that comes from understanding the mathematical principles governing market behavior.
Trade with mathematical insight. Trade with the power of tensors. Trade with the TMAE.
*"In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them." - John von Neumann*
*With the TMAE, mathematical market understanding becomes not just possible, but intuitive.*
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
