ALT Risk Metric StrategyHere's a professional write-up for your ALT Risk Strategy script:
ALT/BTC Risk Strategy - Multi-Crypto DCA with Bitcoin Correlation Analysis
Overview
This strategy uses Bitcoin correlation as a risk indicator to time entries and exits for altcoins. By analyzing how your chosen altcoin performs relative to Bitcoin, the strategy identifies optimal accumulation periods (when alt/BTC is oversold) and profit-taking opportunities (when alt/BTC is overbought). Perfect for traders who want to outperform Bitcoin by strategically timing altcoin positions.
Key Innovation: Why Alt/BTC Matters
Most traders focus solely on USD price, but Alt/BTC ratios reveal true altcoin strength:
When Alt/BTC is low → Altcoin is undervalued relative to Bitcoin (buy opportunity)
When Alt/BTC is high → Altcoin has outperformed Bitcoin (take profits)
This approach captures the rotation between BTC and alts that drives crypto cycles
Key Features
📊 Advanced Technical Analysis
RSI (60% weight): Primary momentum indicator on weekly timeframe
Long-term MA Deviation (35% weight): Measures distance from 150-period baseline
MACD (5% weight): Minor confirmation signal
EMA Smoothing: Filters noise while maintaining responsiveness
All calculations performed on Alt/BTC pairs for superior market timing
💰 3-Tier DCA System
Level 1 (Risk ≤ 70): Conservative entry, base allocation
Level 2 (Risk ≤ 50): Increased allocation, strong opportunity
Level 3 (Risk ≤ 30): Maximum allocation, extreme undervaluation
Continuous buying: Executes every bar while below threshold for true DCA behavior
Cumulative sizing: L3 triggers = L1 + L2 + L3 amounts combined
📈 Smart Profit Management
Sequential selling: Must complete L1 before L2, L2 before L3
Percentage-based exits: Sell portions of position, not fixed amounts
Auto-reset on re-entry: New buy signals reset sell progression
Prevents premature full exits during volatile conditions
🤖 3Commas Automation
Pre-configured JSON webhooks for Custom Signal Bots
Multi-exchange support: Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bitfinex, Bybit
Flexible quote currency: USD, USDT, or BUSD
Dynamic order sizing: Automatically adjusts to your tier thresholds
Full webhook documentation compliance
🎨 Multi-Asset Support
Pre-configured for popular altcoins:
ETH (Ethereum)
SOL (Solana)
ADA (Cardano)
LINK (Chainlink)
UNI (Uniswap)
XRP (Ripple)
DOGE
RENDER
Custom option for any other crypto
How It Works
Risk Metric Calculation (0-100 scale):
Fetches weekly Alt/BTC price data for stability
Calculates RSI, MACD, and deviation from 150-period MA
Normalizes MACD to 0-100 range using 500-bar lookback
Combines weighted components: (MACD × 0.05) + (RSI × 0.60) + (Deviation × 0.35)
Applies 5-period EMA smoothing for cleaner signals
Color-Coded Risk Zones:
Green (0-30): Extreme buying opportunity - Alt heavily oversold vs BTC
Lime/Yellow (30-70): Accumulation range - favorable risk/reward
Orange (70-85): Caution zone - consider taking initial profits
Red/Maroon (85-100+): Euphoria zone - aggressive profit-taking
Entry Logic:
Buys execute every candle when risk is below threshold
As risk decreases, position sizing automatically scales up
Example: If risk drops from 60→25, you'll be buying at L1 rate until it hits 50, then L2 rate, then L3 rate
Exit Logic:
Sells only trigger when in profit AND risk exceeds thresholds
Sequential execution ensures partial profit-taking
If new buy signal occurs before all sells complete, sell levels reset to L1
Configuration Guide
Choosing Your Altcoin:
Select crypto from dropdown (or use CUSTOM for unlisted coins)
Pick your exchange
Choose quote currency (USD, USDT, BUSD)
Risk Metric Tuning:
Long Term MA (default 150): Higher = more extreme signals, Lower = more frequent
RSI Length (default 10): Lower = more volatile, Higher = smoother
Smoothing (default 5): Increase for less noise, decrease for faster reaction
Buy Settings (Aggressive DCA Example):
L1 Threshold: 70 | Amount: $5
L2 Threshold: 50 | Amount: $6
L3 Threshold: 30 | Amount: $7
Total L3 buy = $18 per candle when deeply oversold
Sell Settings (Balanced Exit Example):
L1: 70 threshold, 25% position
L2: 85 threshold, 35% position
L3: 100 threshold, 40% position (final exit)
3Commas Setup
Bot Configuration:
Create Custom Signal Bot in 3Commas
Set trading pair to your altcoin/USD (e.g., ETH/USD, SOL/USDT)
Order size: Select "Send in webhook, quote" to use strategy's dollar amounts
Copy Bot UUID and Secret Token
Script Configuration:
Paste credentials into 3Commas section inputs
Check "Enable 3Commas Alerts"
Save and apply to chart
TradingView Alert:
Create Alert → Condition: "alert() function calls only"
Webhook URL: api.3commas.io
Enable "Webhook URL" checkbox
Expiration: Open-ended
Strategy Advantages
✅ Outperform Bitcoin: Designed specifically to beat BTC by timing alt rotations
✅ Capture Alt Seasons: Automatically accumulates when alts lag, sells when they pump
✅ Risk-Adjusted Sizing: Buys more when cheaper (better risk/reward)
✅ Emotional Discipline: Systematic approach removes fear and FOMO
✅ Multi-Asset: Run same strategy across multiple altcoins simultaneously
✅ Proven Indicators: Combines RSI, MACD, and MA deviation - battle-tested tools
Backtesting Insights
Optimal Timeframes:
Daily chart: Best for backtesting and signal generation
Weekly data is fetched internally regardless of display timeframe
Historical Performance Characteristics:
Accumulates heavily during bear markets and BTC dominance periods
Captures explosive altcoin rallies when BTC stagnates
Sequential selling preserves capital during extended downtrends
Works best on established altcoins with multi-year history
Risk Considerations:
Requires capital reserves for extended accumulation periods
Some altcoins may never recover if fundamentals deteriorate
Past correlation patterns may not predict future performance
Always size positions according to personal risk tolerance
Visual Interface
Indicator Panel Displays:
Dynamic color line: Green→Lime→Yellow→Orange→Red as risk increases
Horizontal threshold lines: Dashed lines mark your buy/sell levels
Entry/Exit labels: Green labels for buys, Orange/Red/Maroon for sells
Real-time risk value: Numerical display on price scale
Customization:
All threshold lines are adjustable via inputs
Color scheme clearly differentiates buy zones (green spectrum) from sell zones (red spectrum)
Line weights emphasize most extreme thresholds (L3 buy and L3 sell)
Strategy Philosophy
This strategy is built on the principle that altcoins move in cycles relative to Bitcoin. During Bitcoin rallies, alts often bleed against BTC (high sell, accumulate). When Bitcoin consolidates, alts pump (take profits). By measuring risk on the Alt/BTC chart instead of USD price, we time these rotations with precision.
The 3-tier system ensures you're always averaging in at better prices and scaling out at better prices, maximizing your Bitcoin-denominated returns.
Advanced Tips
Multi-Bot Strategy:
Run this on 5-10 different altcoins simultaneously to:
Diversify correlation risk
Capture whichever alt is pumping
Smooth equity curve through rotation
Pairing with BTC Strategy:
Use alongside the BTC DCA Risk Strategy for complete portfolio coverage:
BTC strategy for core holdings
ALT strategies for alpha generation
Rebalance between them based on BTC dominance
Threshold Calibration:
Check 2-3 years of historical data for your chosen alt
Note where risk metric sat during major bottoms (set buy thresholds)
Note where it peaked during euphoria (set sell thresholds)
Adjust for your risk tolerance and holding period
Credits
Strategy Development & 3Commas Integration: Claude AI (Anthropic)
Technical Analysis Framework: RSI, MACD, Moving Average theory
Implementation: pommesUNDwurst
Disclaimer
This strategy is for educational purposes only. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss. Altcoins are especially volatile and many fail completely. The strategy assumes liquid markets and reliable Alt/BTC price data. Always do your own research, understand the fundamentals of any asset you trade, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The authors are not financial advisors and assume no liability for trading decisions.
Additional Warning: Using leverage or trading illiquid altcoins amplifies risk significantly. This strategy is designed for spot trading of established cryptocurrencies with deep liquidity.
Tags: Altcoin, Alt/BTC, DCA, Risk Metric, Dollar Cost Averaging, 3Commas, ETH, SOL, Crypto Rotation, Bitcoin Correlation, Automated Trading, Alt Season
Feel free to modify any sections to better match your style or add specific backtesting results you've observed! 🚀Claude is AI and can make mistakes. Please double-check responses. Sonnet 4.5
스크립트에서 "backtesting"에 대해 찾기
Advanced ICC Multi-Timeframe 1.0Advanced ICC Multi-Timeframe Trading System
A comprehensive implementation and interpretation of the Indication, Correction, Continuation (ICC) trading methodology made popular by Trades by Sci, enhanced with advanced multi-timeframe analysis and automation features.
⚠️ CRITICAL TRADING WARNINGS:
DO NOT blindly follow BUY/SELL signals from this indicator
This indicator shows potential entry points but YOU must validate each trade
PAPER TRADE EXTENSIVELY before risking real capital
BACKTEST THOROUGHLY on your chosen instruments and timeframes
The ICC methodology requires understanding and discretion - automated signals are guidance only
This tool aids analysis but does not replace proper trade planning, risk management, or trader judgment
⚠️ Important Disclaimers:
This indicator is not endorsed by or affiliated with Trades by Sci
This is an early implementation and interpretation of the ICC methodology
May not work exactly as Trades by Sci executes his trades and entries
Requires further debugging, backtesting, and real-world validation
Completely free to use - no purchase required
I'm just one person obsessed with this method and wanted some better visualization of the chart/entries
About ICC:
The ICC method identifies complete market cycles through three phases: Indication (breakout), Correction (pullback), and Continuation (entry). This indicator automates the identification of these phases and adds powerful features for modern traders.
Key Features:
Multi-Timeframe Capabilities:
Automatic timeframe detection with optimized settings for 5m, 15m, 30m, 1H, 4H, and Daily charts
Higher timeframe overlay to view HTF ICC levels on lower timeframe charts for precise entry timing
Smart defaults that adjust swing length and consolidation detection based on your timeframe
Advanced Phase Tracking:
Complete ICC cycle tracking: Indication, Correction, Consolidation, Continuation, and No Setup phases
Live structure detection shows potential peaks/troughs before full confirmation
Intelligent invalidation logic detects failed setups when market structure reverses
Dynamic phase backgrounds for instant visual confirmation
Three Types of Entry Signals:
Traditional Entries - Price crosses back through the original indication level (strongest signals)
"BUY" (green) / "SELL" (red)
Breakout Entries - Price breaks out of consolidation range in the same direction
"BUY" (green) / "SELL" (red)
Reversal Entries (Optional, can be toggled off) - Price breaks consolidation in opposite direction, indicating failed setup
"⚠ BUY" (yellow) / "⚠ SELL" (orange)
More aggressive, counter-trend signals
Can be disabled for more conservative trading
Professional Features:
Volatility-based support/resistance zones (ATR-adjusted) that adapt to market conditions
Historical zone tracking (0-3 configurable) with visual hierarchy
Comprehensive real-time info table displaying all key metrics
Full alert system for entries, indications, and consolidation detection
Visual distinction between high-confidence trend entries and cautionary reversal entries
📖 USAGE GUIDE
Entry Signal Types:
The indicator provides three types of entry signals with visual distinction:
Strong Entries (High Confidence):
"BUY" (bright green) / "SELL" (bright red)
Includes traditional entries (crossing back through indication level) and breakout entries (breaking consolidation in trend direction)
These are trend continuation or breakout signals with higher probability
Recommended for all traders
Reversal Entries (Caution - Counter-Trend):
"⚠ BUY" (yellow) / "⚠ SELL" (orange)
Triggered when price breaks out of correction/consolidation in the OPPOSITE direction
Indicates a failed setup and potential trend reversal
More aggressive, counter-trend plays
Can be toggled off in settings for more conservative trading
Recommended only for experienced traders or after thorough backtesting
Swing Length Settings:
The swing length determines how many bars on each side are needed to confirm a swing high/low. This is the most important setting for tuning the indicator to your style.
Auto Mode (Recommended for beginners): Toggle "Use Auto Timeframe Settings" ON
5-minute: 30 bars
15-minute: 20 bars
30-minute: 12 bars
1-hour: 7 bars
4-hour: 5 bars
Daily: 3 bars
Manual Mode: Toggle "Use Auto Timeframe Settings" OFF
Lower values (3-7): More aggressive, detects smaller swings
Pros: More signals, faster entries, catches smaller moves
Cons: More noise, more false signals, requires tighter stops
Best for: Scalping, active day trading, volatile markets
Higher values (12-20): More conservative, only major swings
Pros: More reliable signals, fewer false breakouts, clearer structure
Cons: Fewer signals, delayed entries, might miss smaller opportunities
Best for: Swing trading, position trading, trending markets
Default Manual Setting: 7 bars (balanced for 1H charts)
Minimum: 3 bars
Consolidation Bars Setting:
Determines how many bars without new structure are needed before flagging consolidation.
Lower values (3-10): Faster detection, catches brief pauses, more sensitive
Best for: Lower timeframes, volatile markets, avoiding any chop
Higher values (20-40): More reliable, only flags true extended consolidation
Best for: Higher timeframes, trending markets, patient traders
Current defaults scale with timeframe (more bars needed on shorter timeframes)
Historical S/R Zones:
Shows previous support and resistance levels to provide context.
Default: 2 historical zones (shows current + 2 previous)
Range: 0-3 zones
Visual Hierarchy: Older zones are more transparent with dashed borders
Usage: Higher numbers (2-3) show more historical context but can clutter the chart. Start with 2 and adjust based on your preference.
Live Structure Feature (Yellow Warning ⚠):
Provides early warning of potential structure changes before full confirmation.
What it does: Detects potential swing highs/lows after just 2 bars instead of waiting for full swing_length confirmation
Live Peak: Shows when a high is followed by 2 lower closes (potential top forming)
Live Trough: Shows when a low is followed by 2 higher closes (potential bottom forming)
Important: These are UNCONFIRMED - they may be invalidated if price reverses
Use case: Get early awareness of potential reversals while waiting for confirmation
Displayed in: Info table only (no visual markers on chart to reduce clutter)
Only shows: Peaks higher than last swing high, or troughs lower than last swing low (filters out noise)
Higher Timeframe (HTF) Analysis:
View higher timeframe ICC structure while trading on lower timeframes.
How to enable: Toggle "Show Higher Timeframe ICC" ON
Setup: Set "Higher Timeframe" to your reference timeframe
Example: Trading on 15-minute? Set HTF to 240 (4-hour) or 60 (1-hour)
Example: Trading on 5-minute? Set HTF to 60 (1-hour) or 15 (15-minute)
What it shows:
HTF indication levels displayed as dashed lines
Blue = HTF Bullish Indication
Purple = HTF Bearish Indication
HTF phase and levels shown in info table
Trading workflow:
Check HTF phase for overall market direction
Wait for HTF correction phase
Drop to lower timeframe to find precise entries
Enter when lower TF shows continuation in alignment with HTF
Best practice: HTF should be 3-4x your trading timeframe for best results
Reversal Entries Toggle:
Default: ON (shows all signal types)
Toggle OFF for more conservative trading (only trend continuation signals)
Recommended: Backtest with both settings to see which works better for your style
New traders should consider disabling reversal entries initially
Volatility-Based Zones:
When enabled, support/resistance zones automatically adjust their height based on ATR (Average True Range).
More volatile = wider zones
Less volatile = tighter zones
Toggle OFF for fixed-width zones
Community Feedback Welcome:
This is an evolving project and your input is valuable! Please share:
Bug reports and issues you encounter
Feature requests and suggestions for improvement
Results from your backtesting and live trading experience
Feedback on the reversal entry feature (too aggressive? working well?)
Ideas for better aligning with the ICC methodology
Perfect for traders learning or implementing the ICC methodology with the benefit of modern automation, multi-timeframe analysis, and flexible entry signal options.
ATH대비 지정하락률에 도착 시 매수 - 장기홀딩 선물 전략(ATH Drawdown Re-Buy Long Only)본 스크립트는 과거 하락 데이터를 이용하여, 정해진 하락 %가 발생하는 경우 자기 자본의 정해진 %만큼을 진입하게 설계되어진 스트레티지입니다.
레버리지를 사용할 수 있으며 기본적으로 셋팅해둔 값이 내장되어있습니다.(자유롭게 바꿔서 쓰시면 됩니다.) 추가적으로 2번의 진입 외에도 다른 진입 기준, 진입 %를 설정하실 수 있으며 - ChatGPT에게 요청하면 수정해줄 것입니다.
실제 사용용도로는 KillSwitch 기능을 꺼주세요. 바 돋보기 기능을 켜주세요.
ATH Drawdown Re-Buy Long Only 전략 설명
1. 전략 개요
ATH Drawdown Re-Buy Long Only 전략은 자산의 역대 최고가(ATH, All-Time High)를 기준으로 한 하락폭(드로우다운)을 활용하여,
특정 구간마다 단계적으로 롱 포지션을 구축하는 자동 재매수(Long Only) 전략입니다.
본 전략은 다음과 같은 목적을 가지고 설계되었습니다.
급격한 조정 구간에서 체계적인 분할 매수 및 레버리지 활용
ATH를 기준으로 한 명확한 진입 규칙 제공
실시간으로
평단가
레버리지
청산가 추정
계좌 MDD
수익률
등을 시각적으로 제공하여 리스크와 포지션 상태를 직관적으로 확인할 수 있도록 지원
※ 본 전략은 교육·연구·백테스트 용도로 제공되며,
어떠한 형태의 투자 권유 또는 수익을 보장하지 않습니다.
2. 전략의 핵심 개념
2-1. ATH(역대 최고가) 기준 드로우다운
전략은 차트 상에서 항상 가장 높은 고가(High)를 ATH로 기록합니다.
새로운 고점이 형성될 때마다 ATH를 갱신하고, 해당 ATH를 기준으로 다음을 계산합니다.
현재 바의 저가(Low)가 ATH에서 몇 % 하락했는지
현재 바의 종가(Close)가 ATH에서 몇 % 하락했는지
그리고 사전에 설정한 두 개의 드로우다운 구간에서 매수를 수행합니다.
1차 진입 구간: ATH 대비 X% 하락 시
2차 진입 구간: ATH 대비 Y% 하락 시
각 구간은 ATH가 새로 갱신될 때마다 한 번씩만 작동하며,
새로운 ATH가 생성되면 다시 “1차 / 2차 진입 가능 상태”로 초기화됩니다.
2-2. 첫 포지션 100% / 300% 특수 규칙
이 전략의 중요한 특징은 **“첫 포지션 진입 시의 예외 규칙”**입니다.
전략이 현재 어떠한 포지션도 들고 있지 않은 상태에서
최초로 롱 포지션을 진입하는 시점(첫 포지션)에 대해:
기본적으로는 **자산의 100%**를 기준으로 포지션을 구축하지만,
만약 그 순간의 가격이 ATH 대비 설정값 이상(예: 약 –72.5% 이상 하락한 상황) 이라면
→ 자산의 300% 규모로 첫 포지션을 진입하도록 설계되어 있습니다.
이 규칙은 다음과 같이 동작합니다.
첫 진입이 1차 드로우다운 구간에서 발생하든,
첫 진입이 2차 드로우다운 구간에서 발생하든,
현재 하락폭이 설정된 기준 이상(예: –72.5% 이상) 이라면
→ “이 정도 하락이면 첫 진입부터 더 공격적으로 들어간다”는 의미로 300% 규모로 진입
그 이하의 하락폭이라면
→ 첫 진입은 100% 규모로 제한
즉, 전략은 다음 두 가지 모드로 동작합니다.
일반적인 상황의 첫 진입: 자산의 100%
심각한 드로우다운 구간에서의 첫 진입: 자산의 300%
이 특수 규칙은 깊은 하락에서는 공격적으로, 평소에는 상대적으로 보수적으로 진입하도록 설계된 것입니다.
3. 전략 동작 구조
3-1. 매수 조건
차트 상 High 기준으로 ATH를 추적합니다.
각 바마다 해당 ATH에서의 하락률을 계산합니다.
사용자가 설정한 두 개의 드로우다운 구간(예시):
1차 구간: 예를 들어 ATH – 50%
2차 구간: 예를 들어 ATH – 72.5%
각 구간에 대해 다음과 같은 조건을 확인합니다.
“이번 ATH 구간에서 아직 해당 구간 매수를 한 적이 없는 상태”이고,
현재 바의 저가(Low)가 해당 구간 가격 이하를 찍는 순간
→ 해당 바에서 매수 조건 충족으로 간주
실제 주문은:
해당 구간 가격에 맞춰 롱 포지션 진입(리밋/시장가 기반 시뮬레이션) 으로 처리됩니다.
3-2. ATH 갱신과 진입 기회 리셋
차트 상에서 새로운 고점(High)이 기존 ATH를 넘어서는 순간,
ATH가 갱신되고,
1차 / 2차 진입 여부를 나타내는 내부 플래그가 초기화됩니다.
이를 통해, 시장이 새로운 고점을 돌파해 나갈 때마다,
해당 구간에서 다시 한 번씩 1차·2차 드로우다운 진입 기회를 갖게 됩니다.
4. 포지션 사이징 및 레버리지
4-1. 계좌 자산(Equity) 기준 포지션 크기 결정
전략은 현재 계좌 자산을 다음과 같이 정의하여 사용합니다.
현재 자산 = 초기 자본 + 실현 손익 + 미실현 손익
각 진입 구간에서의 포지션 가치는 다음과 같이 결정됩니다.
1차 진입 구간:
“자산의 몇 %를 사용할지”를 설정값으로 입력
설정된 퍼센트를 계좌 자산에 곱한 뒤,
다시 전략 내 레버리지 배수(Leverage) 를 곱하여 실제 포지션 가치를 계산
2차 진입 구간:
동일한 방식으로, 독립된 퍼센트 설정값을 사용
즉, 포지션 가치는 다음과 같이 계산됩니다.
포지션 가치 = 현재 자산 × (해당 구간 설정 % / 100) × 레버리지 배수
그리고 이를 해당 구간의 진입 가격으로 나누어 실제 수량(토큰 단위) 를 산출합니다.
4-2. 첫 포지션의 예외 처리 (100% / 300%)
첫 포지션에 대해서는 위의 일반적인 퍼센트 설정 대신,
다음과 같은 고정 비율이 사용됩니다.
기본: 자산의 100% 규모로 첫 포지션 진입
단, 진입 시점의 ATH 대비 하락률이 설정값 이상(예: –72.5% 이상) 일 경우
→ 자산의 300% 규모로 첫 포지션 진입
이때 역시 다음 공식을 사용합니다.
포지션 가치 = 현재 자산 × (100% 또는 300%) × 레버리지
그리고 이를 가격으로 나누어 실제 진입 수량을 계산합니다.
이 규칙은:
첫 진입이 1차 구간이든 2차 구간이든 동일하게 적용되며,
“충분히 깊은 하락 구간에서는 첫 진입부터 더 크게,
평소에는 비교적 보수적으로” 라는 운용 철학을 반영합니다.
4-3. 실레버리지(Real Leverage)의 추적
전략은 각 바 단위로 다음을 추적합니다.
바가 시작할 때의 기존 포지션 크기
해당 바에서 새로 진입한 수량
이를 바탕으로, 진입이 발생한 시점에 다음을 계산합니다.
실제 레버리지 = (포지션 가치 / 현재 자산)
그리고 차트 상에 예를 들어:
Lev 2.53x 와 같은 형식의 레이블로 표시합니다.
이를 통해, 매수 시점마다 실제 계좌 레버리지가 어느 정도였는지를 직관적으로 확인할 수 있습니다.
5. 시각화 및 모니터링 요소
5-1. 차트 상 시각 요소
전략은 차트 위에 다음과 같은 정보를 직접 표시합니다.
ATH 라인
High 기준으로 계산된 역대 최고가를 주황색 선으로 표시
평단가(평균 진입가) 라인
현재 보유 포지션이 있을 때,
해당 포지션의 평균 진입가를 노란색 선으로 표시
추정 청산가(고정형 청산가) 라인
포지션 수량이 변화하는 시점을 감지하여,
당시의 평단가와 실제 레버리지를 이용해 근사적인 청산가를 계산
이를 빨간색 선으로 차트에 고정 표시
포지션이 없거나 레버리지가 1배 이하인 경우에는 청산가 라인을 제거
매수 마커 및 레이블
1차/2차 매수 조건이 충족될 때마다 해당 지점에 매수 마커를 표시
"Buy XX% @ 가격", "Lev XXx" 형태의 라벨로
진입 비율과 당시 레버리지를 함께 시각화
레이블의 위치는 설정에서 선택 가능:
바 아래 (Below Bar)
바 위 (Above Bar)
실제 가격 위치 (At Price)
5-2. 우측 상단 정보 테이블
차트 우측 상단에는 현재 계좌·포지션 상태를 요약한 정보 테이블이 표시됩니다.
대표적으로 다음 항목들이 포함됩니다.
Pos Qty (Token)
현재 보유 중인 포지션 수량(토큰 기준, 절대값 기준)
Pos Value (USDT)
현재 포지션의 시장 가치 (수량 × 현재 가격)
Leverage (Now)
현재 실레버리지 (포지션 가치 / 현재 자산)
DD from ATH (%)
현재 가격 기준, 최근 ATH에서의 하락률(%)
Avg Entry
현재 포지션의 평균 진입 가격
PnL (%)
현재 포지션 기준 미실현 손익률(%)
Max DD (Equity %)
전략 전체 기간 동안 기록된 계좌 기준 최대 손실(MDD, Max Drawdown)
Last Entry Price
가장 최근에 포지션을 추가로 진입한 직후의 평균 진입 가격
Last Entry Lev
위 “Last Entry Price” 시점에서의 실레버리지
Liq Price (Fixed)
위에서 설명한 고정형 추정 청산가
Return from Start (%)
전략 시작 시점(초기 자본) 대비 현재 계좌 자산의 총 수익률(%)
이 테이블을 통해 사용자는:
현재 계좌와 포지션의 상태
리스크 수준
누적 성과
를 직관적으로 파악할 수 있습니다.
6. 시간 필터 및 라벨 옵션
6-1. 전략 동작 기간 설정
전략은 옵션으로 특정 기간에만 전략을 동작시키는 시간 필터를 제공합니다.
“Use Date Range” 옵션을 활성화하면:
시작 시각과 종료 시각을 지정하여
해당 구간에 한해서만 매매가 발생하도록 제한
옵션을 비활성화하면:
전략은 전체 차트 구간에서 자유롭게 동작
6-2. 진입 라벨 위치 설정
사용자는 매수/레버리지 라벨의 위치를 선택할 수 있습니다.
바 아래 (Below Bar)
바 위 (Above Bar)
실제 가격 위치 (At Price)
이를 통해 개인 취향 및 차트 가독성에 맞추어
시각화 방식을 유연하게 조정할 수 있습니다.
7. 활용 대상 및 사용 예시
본 전략은 다음과 같은 목적에 적합합니다.
현물 또는 선물 롱 포지션 기준 장기·스윙 관점 추매 전략 백테스트
“고점 대비 하락률”을 기준으로 한 규칙 기반 운용 아이디어 검증
레버리지 사용 시
계좌 레버리지·청산가·MDD를 동시에 모니터링하고자 하는 경우
특정 자산에 대해
“새로운 고점이 형성될 때마다
일정한 규칙으로 깊은 조정 구간에서만 분할 진입하고자 할 때”
실거래에 그대로 적용하기보다는,
전략 아이디어 검증 및 리스크 프로파일 분석,
자신의 성향에 맞는 파라미터 탐색 용도로 사용하는 것을 권장합니다.
8. 한계 및 유의사항
백테스트 결과는 미래 성과를 보장하지 않습니다.
과거 데이터에 기반한 시뮬레이션일 뿐이며,
실제 시장에서는
유동성
슬리피지
수수료 체계
강제청산 규칙
등 다양한 변수가 존재합니다.
청산가는 단순화된 공식에 따른 추정치입니다.
거래소별 실제 청산 규칙, 유지 증거금, 수수료, 펀딩비 등은
본 전략의 계산과 다를 수 있으며,
청산가 추정 라인은 참고용 지표일 뿐입니다.
레버리지 및 진입 비율 설정에 따라 손실 폭이 매우 커질 수 있습니다.
특히 **“첫 포지션 300% 진입”**과 같이 매우 공격적인 설정은
시장 급락 시 계좌 손실과 청산 리스크를 크게 증가시킬 수 있으므로
신중한 검토가 필요합니다.
실거래 연동 시에는 별도의 리스크 관리가 필수입니다.
개별 손절 기준
포지션 상한선
전체 포트폴리오 내 비중 관리 등
본 전략 외부에서 추가적인 안전장치가 필요합니다.
9. 결론
ATH Drawdown Re-Buy Long Only 전략은 단순한 “저가 매수”를 넘어서,
ATH 기준으로 드로우다운을 구조적으로 활용하고,
첫 포지션에 대한 **특수 규칙(100% / 300%)**을 적용하며,
레버리지·청산가·MDD·수익률을 통합적으로 시각화함으로써,
하락 구간에서의 규칙 기반 롱 포지션 구축과
리스크 모니터링을 동시에 지원하는 전략입니다.
사용자는 본 전략을 통해:
자신의 시장 관점과 리스크 허용 범위에 맞는
드로우다운 구간
진입 비율
레버리지 설정
다양한 시나리오에 대한 백테스트와 분석
을 수행할 수 있습니다.
다시 한 번 강조하지만,
본 전략은 연구·학습·백테스트를 위한 도구이며,
실제 투자 판단과 책임은 전적으로 사용자 본인에게 있습니다.
/ENG Version.
This script is designed to use historical drawdown data and automatically enter positions when a predefined percentage drop from the all-time high occurs, using a predefined percentage of your account equity.
You can use leverage, and default parameter values are provided out of the box (you can freely change them to suit your style).
In addition to the two main entry levels, you can add more entry conditions and custom entry percentages – just ask ChatGPT to modify the script.
For actual/live usage, please turn OFF the KillSwitch function and turn ON the Bar Magnifier feature.
ATH Drawdown Re-Buy Long Only Strategy
1. Strategy Overview
The ATH Drawdown Re-Buy Long Only strategy is an automatic re-buy (Long Only) system that builds long positions step-by-step at specific drawdown levels, based on the asset’s all-time high (ATH) and its subsequent drawdown.
This strategy is designed with the following goals:
Systematic scaled buying and leverage usage during sharp correction periods
Clear, rule-based entry logic using drawdowns from ATH
Real-time visualization of:
Average entry price
Leverage
Estimated liquidation price
Account MDD (Max Drawdown)
Return / performance
This allows traders to intuitively monitor both risk and position status.
※ This strategy is provided for educational, research, and backtesting purposes only.
It does not constitute investment advice and does not guarantee any profits.
2. Core Concepts
2-1. Drawdown from ATH (All-Time High)
On the chart, the strategy always tracks the highest high as the ATH.
Whenever a new high is made, ATH is updated, and based on that ATH the following are calculated:
How many percent the current bar’s Low is below the ATH
How many percent the current bar’s Close is below the ATH
Using these, the strategy executes buys at two predefined drawdown zones:
1st entry zone: When price drops X% from ATH
2nd entry zone: When price drops Y% from ATH
Each zone is allowed to trigger only once per ATH cycle.
When a new ATH is created, the “1st / 2nd entry possible” flags are reset, and new opportunities open up for that ATH leg.
2-2. Special Rule for the First Position (100% / 300%)
A key feature of this strategy is the special rule for the very first position.
When the strategy currently holds no position and is about to open the first long position:
Under normal conditions, it builds the position using 100% of account equity.
However, if at that moment the price has dropped by at least a predefined threshold from ATH (e.g. around –72.5% or more),
→ the strategy will open the first position using 300% of account equity.
This rule works as follows:
Whether the first entry happens at the 1st drawdown zone or at the 2nd drawdown zone,
If the current drawdown from ATH is at or below the threshold (e.g. –72.5% or worse),
→ the strategy interprets this as “a sufficiently deep crash” and opens the initial position with 300% of equity.
If the drawdown is less severe than the threshold,
→ the first entry is capped at 100% of equity.
So the strategy has two modes for the first entry:
Normal market conditions: 100% of equity
Deep drawdown conditions: 300% of equity
This special rule is intended to be aggressive in extremely deep crashes while staying more conservative in normal corrections.
3. Strategy Logic & Execution
3-1. Entry Conditions
The strategy tracks the ATH using the High price.
For each bar, it calculates the drawdown from ATH.
The user defines two drawdown zones, for example:
1st zone: ATH – 50%
2nd zone: ATH – 72.5%
For each zone, the strategy checks:
If no buy has been executed yet for that zone in the current ATH leg, and
If the current bar’s Low touches or falls below that zone’s price level,
→ That bar is considered to have triggered a buy condition.
Order simulation:
The strategy simulates entering a long position at that zone’s price level
(using a limit/market-like approximation for backtesting).
3-2. ATH Reset & Entry Opportunity Reset
When a new High goes above the previous ATH:
The ATH is updated to this new high.
Internal flags that track whether the 1st and 2nd entries have been used are reset.
This means:
Each time the market makes a new ATH,
The strategy once again has a fresh opportunity to execute 1st and 2nd drawdown entries for that new ATH leg.
4. Position Sizing & Leverage
4-1. Position Size Based on Account Equity
The strategy defines current equity as:
Current Equity = Initial Capital + Realized PnL + Unrealized PnL
For each entry zone, the position value is calculated as follows:
The user inputs:
“What % of equity to use at this zone”
The strategy:
Multiplies current equity by that percentage
Then multiplies by the strategy’s leverage factor
Thus:
Position Value = Current Equity × (Zone % / 100) × Leverage
Finally, this position value is divided by the entry price to determine the actual position size in tokens.
4-2. Exception for the First Position (100% / 300%)
For the very first position (when there is no open position),
the strategy does not use the zone % parameters. Instead, it uses fixed ratios:
Default: Enter the first position with 100% of equity.
If the drawdown from ATH at that moment is greater than or equal to a predefined threshold (e.g. –72.5% or more)
→ Enter the first position with 300% of equity.
The position value is computed as:
Position Value = Current Equity × (100% or 300%) × Leverage
Then it is divided by the entry price to obtain the token quantity.
This rule:
Applies regardless of whether the first entry occurs at the 1st zone or 2nd zone.
Embeds the philosophy:
“In very deep crashes, go much larger on the first entry; otherwise, stay more conservative.”
4-3. Tracking Real Leverage
On each bar, the strategy tracks:
The existing position size at the start of the bar
The newly added size (if any) on that bar
When a new entry occurs, it calculates the real leverage at that moment:
Real Leverage = (Position Value / Current Equity)
This is then displayed on the chart as a label, for example:
Lev 2.53x
This makes it easy to see the actual leverage level at each entry point.
5. Visualization & Monitoring
5-1. On-Chart Visual Elements
The strategy plots the following directly on the chart:
ATH Line
The all-time high (based on High) is plotted as an orange line.
Average Entry Price Line
When a position is open, the average entry price of that position is plotted as a yellow line.
Estimated Liquidation Price (Fixed) Line
The strategy detects when the position size changes.
At each size change, it uses the current average entry price and real leverage to compute an approximate liquidation price.
This “fixed liquidation price” is then plotted as a red line on the chart.
If there is no position, or if leverage is 1x or lower, the liquidation line is removed.
Entry Markers & Labels
When 1st/2nd entry conditions are met, the strategy:
Marks the entry point on the chart.
Displays labels such as "Buy XX% @ Price" and "Lev XXx",
showing both entry percentage and real leverage at that time.
The label placement is configurable:
Below Bar
Above Bar
At Price
5-2. Information Table (Top-Right Panel)
In the top-right corner of the chart, the strategy displays a summary table of the current account and position status. It typically includes:
Pos Qty (Token)
Absolute size of the current position (in tokens)
Pos Value (USDT)
Market value of the current position (qty × current price)
Leverage (Now)
Current real leverage (position value / current equity)
DD from ATH (%)
Current drawdown (%) from the latest ATH, based on current price
Avg Entry
Average entry price of the current position
PnL (%)
Unrealized profit/loss (%) of the current position
Max DD (Equity %)
The maximum equity drawdown (MDD) recorded over the entire backtest period
Last Entry Price
Average entry price immediately after the most recent add-on entry
Last Entry Lev
Real leverage at the time of the most recent entry
Liq Price (Fixed)
The fixed estimated liquidation price described above
Return from Start (%)
Total return (%) of equity compared to the initial capital
Through this table, users can quickly grasp:
Current account and position status
Current risk level
Cumulative performance
6. Time Filters & Label Options
6-1. Strategy Date Range Filter
The strategy provides an option to restrict trading to a specific time range.
When “Use Date Range” is enabled:
You can specify start and end timestamps.
The strategy will only execute trades within that range.
When this option is disabled:
The strategy operates over the entire chart history.
6-2. Entry Label Placement
Users can customize where entry/leverage labels are drawn:
Below Bar (Below Bar)
Above Bar (Above Bar)
At the actual price level (At Price)
This allows you to adjust visualization according to personal preference and chart readability.
7. Use Cases & Applications
This strategy is suitable for the following purposes:
Long-term / swing-style re-buy strategies for spot or futures long positions
Testing rule-based strategies that rely on “drawdown from ATH” as a main signal
Monitoring account leverage, liquidation price, and MDD when using leverage
Handling situations where, for a given asset:
“Every time a new ATH is formed,
you want to wait for deep corrections and enter only at specific drawdown zones”
It is generally recommended to use this strategy not as a direct plug-and-play live system, but as a tool for:
Strategy idea validation
Risk profile analysis
Parameter exploration to match your personal risk tolerance and style
8. Limitations & Warnings
Backtest results do not guarantee future performance.
They are based on historical data only.
In live markets, additional factors exist:
Liquidity
Slippage
Fee structures
Exchange-specific liquidation rules
Funding fees, etc.
The liquidation price is only an approximate estimate, derived from a simplified formula.
Actual liquidation rules, maintenance margin requirements, fees, and other details differ by exchange.
The liquidation line should be treated as a reference indicator, not an exact guarantee.
Depending on the configured leverage and entry percentages, losses can be very large.
In particular, extremely aggressive settings such as “first position 300% of equity” can greatly increase the risk of large account drawdowns and liquidation during sharp market crashes.
Use such settings with extreme caution.
For live trading, additional risk management is essential:
Your own stop-loss rules
Maximum position size limits
Portfolio-level exposure controls
And other external safety mechanisms beyond this strategy
9. Conclusion
The ATH Drawdown Re-Buy Long Only strategy goes beyond simple “buy the dip” logic. It:
Systematically utilizes drawdowns from ATH as a structural signal
Applies a special first-position rule (100% / 300%)
Integrates visualization of leverage, liquidation price, MDD, and returns
All of this supports rule-based long position building in drawdown phases and comprehensive risk monitoring.
With this strategy, users can:
Explore different:
Drawdown zones
Entry percentages
Leverage levels
Run various backtests and scenario analyses
Better understand the risk/return profile that fits their own market view and risk tolerance
Once again, this strategy is intended for research, learning, and backtesting only.
All real trading decisions and their consequences are solely the responsibility of the user.
Trend Entry_0 [TS_Indie]Trend Entry_0 — Mechanism Overview
The core structure of this strategy is based on a price action reversal pattern, as detailed below:
In the case of a Bullish Trend Reversal:
The price initially moves in a bearish direction. When candle A forms a low lower than the previous low, the high of candle A becomes a key reference point.
If the next candle closes above the high of candle A , it confirms a Bullish Trend Reversal.
* Upon a Bullish signal, a Long position is opened at the opening price of the next candle (candle B).
* When a subsequent Bearish signal occurs, the Long position is closed at the opening price of the next candle (candle C).
In the case of a Bearish Trend Reversal:
The price initially moves in a bullish direction. When candle A forms a high higher than the previous high, the low of candle A becomes a key reference point.
If the next candle closes below the low of candle A , it confirms a Bearish Trend Reversal.
* Upon a Bearish signal, a Short position is opened at the opening price of the next candle (candle B).
* When a subsequent Bullish signal occurs, the Short position is closed at the opening price of the next candle (candle C).
Options
* The start and end dates of the backtest can be customized.
* The swing lines of the trend can be displayed as an optional visual aid.
* The user can choose whether to open only Long or Short positions.
Backtest Results and Observations
Based on the backtesting results of this strategy across various assets and timeframes, it has been observed that this approach works best on trending assets such as Gold, BTC, and stocks.
It also performs well on higher timeframes, starting from the Daily timeframe and above, especially when taking Long positions only.
However, when applied to currency pairs such as EUR/USD, the results tend to be less impressive.
I encourage everyone to try backtesting and further developing this strategy — adding new conditions or filters may potentially lead to improved performance.
Disclaimer
This script is intended solely for backtesting purposes, based on a particular price action pattern.
It does not constitute financial or investment advice.
Backtest results do not guarantee future performance.
Adaptive Trend 1m ### Overview
The "Adaptive Trend Impulse Parallel SL/TP 1m Realistic" strategy is a sophisticated trading system designed specifically for high-volatility markets like cryptocurrencies on 1-minute timeframes. It combines trend-following with momentum filters and adaptive parameters to dynamically adjust to market conditions, ensuring more reliable entries and risk management. This strategy uses SuperTrend for primary trend detection, enhanced by MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and optional volume spikes. It incorporates parallel stop-loss (SL) and multiple take-profit (TP) levels based on ATR, with options for breakeven and trailing stops after the first TP. Optimized for realistic backtesting on short timeframes, it avoids over-optimization by adapting indicators to market speed and efficiency.
### Principles of Operation
The strategy operates on the principle of adaptive impulse trading, where entry signals are generated only when multiple conditions align to confirm a strong trend reversal or continuation:
1. **Trend Detection (SuperTrend)**: The core signal comes from an adaptive SuperTrend indicator. It calculates upper and lower bands using ATR (Average True Range) with dynamic periods and multipliers. A buy signal occurs when the price crosses above the lower band (from a downtrend), and a sell signal when it crosses below the upper band (from an uptrend). Adaptation is based on Rate of Change (ROC) to measure market speed, shortening periods in fast markets for quicker responses.
2. **Momentum and Trend Filters**:
- **MACD**: Uses adaptive fast and slow lengths. In "Trend Filter" mode (default when "Use MACD Cross" is false), it checks if the MACD line is above/below the signal for long/short. In cross mode, it requires a crossover/crossunder.
- **RSI**: Adaptive period RSI must be above 50 for longs and below 50 for shorts, confirming overbought/oversold conditions dynamically.
- **Bollinger Bands (BB)**: Depending on the mode ("Midline" by default), it requires the price to be above/below the BB midline for longs/shorts, or a breakout in "Breakout" mode. Deviation adapts to market efficiency.
- **Volume Spike Filter** (optional): Entries require volume to exceed an adaptive multiple of its SMA, signaling strong impulse.
3. **Volatility Filter**: Entries are only allowed if current ATR percentage exceeds a historical minimum (adaptive), preventing trades in low-volatility ranges.
4. **Risk Management (Parallel SL/TP)**:
- **Stop-Loss**: Set at an adaptive ATR multiple below/above entry for long/short.
- **Take-Profits**: Three levels at adaptive ATR multiples, with partial position closures (e.g., 51% at TP1, 25% at TP2, remainder at TP3).
- **Post-TP1 Features**: Optional breakeven moves SL to entry after TP1. Trailing SL uses BB midline as a dynamic trail.
- All levels are calculated per trade using the ATR at entry, making them "realistic" for 1m charts by widening SL and tightening initial TPs.
The strategy enters long on buy signals with all filters met, and short on sell signals. It uses pyramid margin (100% long/short) for full position sizing.
Adaptation is driven by:
- **Market Speed (normSpeed)**: Based on ROC, tightens multipliers in volatile periods.
- **Efficiency Ratio (ER)**: Measures trend strength, adjusting periods for trending vs. ranging markets.
This ensures the strategy "adapts" without manual tweaks, reducing false signals in varying conditions.
### Main Advantages
- **Adaptability**: Unlike static strategies, parameters dynamically adjust to market volatility and trend strength, improving performance across ranging and trending phases without over-optimization.
- **Realistic Risk Management for 1m**: Wider SL and tiered TPs prevent premature stops in noisy short-term charts, while partial profits lock in gains early. Breakeven/trailing options protect profits in extended moves.
- **Multi-Filter Confirmation**: Combines trend, momentum, and volume for high-probability entries, reducing whipsaws. The volatility filter avoids flat markets.
- **Debug Visualization**: Built-in plots for signals, levels, and component checks (when "Show Debug" is enabled) help users verify logic on charts.
- **Efficiency**: Low computational load, suitable for real-time trading on TradingView with alerts.
Backtesting shows robust results on volatile assets, with a focus on sustainable risk (e.g., SL at 3x ATR avoids excessive drawdowns).
### Uniqueness
What sets this strategy apart is its **fully adaptive framework** integrating multiple indicators with real-time market metrics (ROC for speed, ER for efficiency). Most trend strategies use fixed parameters, leading to poor adaptation; here, every key input (periods, multipliers, deviations) scales dynamically within bounds, creating a "self-tuning" system. The "parallel SL/TP with 1m realism" adds custom handling for micro-timeframes: tightened initial TPs for quick wins and adaptive min-ATR filter to skip low-vol bars. Unlike generic mashups, it justifies the combination—SuperTrend for trend, MACD/RSI/BB for impulse confirmation, volume for conviction—working synergistically to capture "trend impulses" while filtering noise. The post-TP1 breakeven/trailing tied to BB adds a unique profit-locking mechanism not common in open-source scripts.
### Recommended Settings
These settings are optimized and recommended for trading ASTER/USDT on Bybit, with 1-minute chart, x10 leverage, and cross margin mode. They provide a balanced risk-reward for this volatile pair:
- **Base Inputs**:
- Base ATR Period: 10
- Base SuperTrend ATR Multiplier: 2.5
- Base MACD Fast: 8
- Base MACD Slow: 17
- Base MACD Signal: 6
- Base RSI Period: 9
- Base Bollinger Period: 12
- Bollinger Deviation: 1.8
- Base Volume SMA Period: 19
- Base Volume Spike Multiplier: 1.8
- Adaptation Window: 54
- ROC Length: 10
- **TP/SL Settings**:
- Use Stop Loss: True
- Base SL Multiplier (ATR): 3
- Use Take Profits: True
- Base TP1 Multiplier (ATR): 5.5
- Base TP2 Multiplier (ATR): 10.5
- Base TP3 Multiplier (ATR): 19
- TP1 % Position: 51
- TP2 % Position: 25
- Breakeven after TP1: False
- Trailing SL after TP1: False
- Base Min ATR Filter: 0.001
- Use Volume Spike Filter: True
- BB Condition: Midline
- Use MACD Cross (false=Trend Filter): True
- Show Debug: True
For backtesting, use initial capital of 30 USD, base currency USDT, order size 100 USDT, pyramiding 1, commission 0.1%, slippage 0 ticks, long/short margin 0%.
Always backtest on your platform and use risk management—risk no more than 1-2% per trade. This is not financial advice; trade at your own risk.
[PDR] Daily Rebalance█ OVERVIEW
This indicator is a powerful portfolio backtesting tool designed to simulate the performance of a static-weight, daily rebalancing strategy. It allows you to define a portfolio of up to 10 assets, set their target weights, and track its cumulative return against a user-defined benchmark and a risk-free rate.
The core of the script is its daily rebalancing logic, which calculates and logs every trade needed to bring the portfolio back to its target allocations at the close of each day. This provides a transparent and detailed view of how a static portfolio would have performed historically, including the impact of trading costs.
█ KEY FEATURES
Daily Rebalancing: Simulates a portfolio that is rebalanced at the close of every day to maintain target asset allocations.
Customizable Portfolio: Configure up to 10 different assets with specific weights. If all weights are left at 0, the script automatically creates an equal-weight portfolio from the selected assets.
Performance Comparison: Plots the portfolio's equity curve against a user-defined benchmark (e.g., SET:SET50 ) and a risk-free return, allowing for easy relative performance analysis.
Realistic Simulation: Accounts for trading costs like broker commission and minimum lot sizes for more accurate and grounded backtesting results.
Detailed Performance Metrics: An on-chart table displays real-time statistics, including Current Drawdown, Max Drawdown, and Total Return for both your portfolio and the benchmark.
Trade-by-Trade Logs: For full transparency, every rebalancing trade (BUY/SELL), including shares, price, notional value, and fees, is logged in the Pine Logs panel.
█ HOW TO USE
**Apply to a Daily Chart:** This script is designed to work exclusively on the daily ( 1D ) timeframe. Applying it to any other timeframe will result in a runtime error.
**Configure Settings:** Open the indicator's settings. Set your `Initial Capital`, `Start Time`, and the `Benchmark` symbol you wish to compare against.
**Define Your Assets:** In the 'Assets' group, check the box to enable each asset you want to include, select the symbol, and define its target `Weight (%)`.
**Set Trading Costs:** Adjust the `Broker Commission (%)` and `Minimal Buyable Lot` to match your expected trading conditions.
**Analyze the Results:** The performance curves are plotted in the indicator pane below your main chart. The key metrics table is displayed on the bottom-right of your chart.
**View Rebalancing Trades:** This is a crucial step for understanding the simulation. To see the detailed daily trades, you **must** open the **Pine Logs**. You can find this panel at the bottom of your TradingView window, next to the "Pine Editor" and "Strategy Tester" tabs. The logs provide a complete breakdown of every rebalancing action.
█ DISCLAIMER
This is a backtesting and simulation tool, not a trading signal generator. Its purpose is for research and performance analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
MACD Enhanced [DCAUT]█ MACD Enhanced
📊 ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
The MACD Enhanced represents a significant improvement over traditional MACD implementations. While Gerald Appel's original MACD from the 1970s was limited to exponential moving averages (EMA), this enhanced version expands algorithmic options by supporting 21 different moving average calculations for both the main MACD line and signal line independently.
This improvement addresses an important limitation of traditional MACD: the inability to adapt the indicator's mathematical foundation to different market conditions. By allowing traders to select from algorithms ranging from simple moving averages (SMA) for stability to advanced adaptive filters like Kalman Filter for noise reduction, this implementation changes MACD from a fixed-algorithm tool into a flexible instrument that can be adjusted for specific market environments and trading strategies.
The enhanced histogram visualization system uses a four-color gradient that helps communicate momentum strength and direction more clearly than traditional single-color histograms.
📐 MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATION
The core calculation maintains the proven MACD formula: Fast MA(source, fastLength) - Slow MA(source, slowLength), but extends it with algorithmic flexibility. The signal line applies the selected smoothing algorithm to the MACD line over the specified signal period, while the histogram represents the difference between MACD and signal lines.
Available Algorithms:
The implementation supports a comprehensive spectrum of technical analysis algorithms:
Basic Averages: SMA (arithmetic mean), EMA (exponential weighting), RMA (Wilder's smoothing), WMA (linear weighting)
Advanced Averages: HMA (Hull's low-lag), VWMA (volume-weighted), ALMA (Arnaud Legoux adaptive)
Mathematical Filters: LSMA (least squares regression), DEMA (double exponential), TEMA (triple exponential), ZLEMA (zero-lag exponential)
Adaptive Systems: T3 (Tillson T3), FRAMA (fractal adaptive), KAMA (Kaufman adaptive), MCGINLEY_DYNAMIC (reactive to volatility)
Signal Processing: ULTIMATE_SMOOTHER (low-pass filter), LAGUERRE_FILTER (four-pole IIR), SUPER_SMOOTHER (two-pole Butterworth), KALMAN_FILTER (state-space estimation)
Specialized: TMA (triangular moving average), LAGUERRE_BINOMIAL_FILTER (binomial smoothing)
Each algorithm responds differently to price action, allowing traders to match the indicator's behavior to market characteristics: trending markets benefit from responsive algorithms like EMA or HMA, while ranging markets require stable algorithms like SMA or RMA.
📊 COMPREHENSIVE SIGNAL ANALYSIS
Histogram Interpretation:
Positive Values: Indicate bullish momentum when MACD line exceeds signal line, suggesting upward price pressure and potential buying opportunities
Negative Values: Reflect bearish momentum when MACD line falls below signal line, indicating downward pressure and potential selling opportunities
Zero Line Crosses: MACD crossing above zero suggests transition to bullish bias, while crossing below indicates bearish bias shift
Momentum Changes: Rising histogram (regardless of positive/negative) signals accelerating momentum in the current direction, while declining histogram warns of momentum deceleration
Advanced Signal Recognition:
Divergences: Price making new highs/lows while MACD fails to confirm often precedes trend reversals
Convergence Patterns: MACD line approaching signal line suggests impending crossover and potential trade setup
Histogram Peaks: Extreme histogram values often mark momentum exhaustion points and potential reversal zones
🎯 STRATEGIC APPLICATIONS
Comprehensive Trend Confirmation Strategies:
Primary Trend Validation Protocol:
Identify primary trend direction using higher timeframe (4H or Daily) MACD position relative to zero line
Confirm trend strength by analyzing histogram progression: consistent expansion indicates strong momentum, contraction suggests weakening
Use secondary confirmation from MACD line angle: steep angles (>45°) indicate strong trends, shallow angles suggest consolidation
Validate with price structure: trending markets show consistent higher highs/higher lows (uptrend) or lower highs/lower lows (downtrend)
Entry Timing Techniques:
Pullback Entries in Uptrends: Wait for MACD histogram to decline toward zero line without crossing, then enter on histogram expansion with MACD line still above zero
Breakout Confirmations: Use MACD line crossing above zero as confirmation of upward breakouts from consolidation patterns
Continuation Signals: Look for MACD line re-acceleration (steepening angle) after brief consolidation periods as trend continuation signals
Advanced Divergence Trading Systems:
Regular Divergence Recognition:
Bullish Regular Divergence: Price creates lower lows while MACD line forms higher lows. This pattern is traditionally considered a potential upward reversal signal, but should be combined with other confirmation signals
Bearish Regular Divergence: Price makes higher highs while MACD shows lower highs. This pattern is traditionally considered a potential downward reversal signal, but trading decisions should incorporate proper risk management
Hidden Divergence Strategies:
Bullish Hidden Divergence: Price shows higher lows while MACD displays lower lows, indicating trend continuation potential. Use for adding to existing long positions during pullbacks
Bearish Hidden Divergence: Price creates lower highs while MACD forms higher highs, suggesting downtrend continuation. Optimal for adding to short positions during bear market rallies
Multi-Timeframe Coordination Framework:
Three-Timeframe Analysis Structure:
Primary Timeframe (Daily): Determine overall market bias and major trend direction. Only trade in alignment with daily MACD direction
Secondary Timeframe (4H): Identify intermediate trend changes and major entry opportunities. Use for position sizing decisions
Execution Timeframe (1H): Precise entry and exit timing. Look for MACD line crossovers that align with higher timeframe bias
Timeframe Synchronization Rules:
Daily MACD above zero + 4H MACD rising = Strong uptrend context for long positions
Daily MACD below zero + 4H MACD declining = Strong downtrend context for short positions
Conflicting signals between timeframes = Wait for alignment or use smaller position sizes
1H MACD signals only valid when aligned with both higher timeframes
Algorithm Considerations by Market Type:
Trending Markets: Responsive algorithms like EMA, HMA may be considered, but effectiveness should be tested for specific market conditions
Volatile Markets: Noise-reducing algorithms like KALMAN_FILTER, SUPER_SMOOTHER may help reduce false signals, though results vary by market
Range-Bound Markets: Stability-focused algorithms like SMA, RMA may provide smoother signals, but individual testing is required
Short Timeframes: Low-lag algorithms like ZLEMA, T3 theoretically respond faster but may also increase noise
Important Note: All algorithm choices and parameter settings should be thoroughly backtested and validated based on specific trading strategies, market conditions, and individual risk tolerance. Different market environments and trading styles may require different configuration approaches.
📋 DETAILED PARAMETER CONFIGURATION
Comprehensive Source Selection Strategy:
Price Source Analysis and Optimization:
Close Price (Default): Most commonly used, reflects final market sentiment of each period. Best for end-of-day analysis, swing trading, daily/weekly timeframes. Advantages: widely accepted standard, good for backtesting comparisons. Disadvantages: ignores intraday price action, may miss important highs/lows
HL2 (High+Low)/2: Midpoint of the trading range, reduces impact of opening gaps and closing spikes. Best for volatile markets, gap-prone assets, forex markets. Calculation impact: smoother MACD signals, reduced noise from price spikes. Optimal when asset shows frequent gaps, high volatility during specific sessions
HLC3 (High+Low+Close)/3: Weighted average emphasizing the close while including range information. Best for balanced analysis, most asset classes, medium-term trading. Mathematical effect: 33% weight to high/low, 33% to close, provides compromise between close and HL2. Use when standard close is too noisy but HL2 is too smooth
OHLC4 (Open+High+Low+Close)/4: True average of all price points, most comprehensive view. Best for complete price representation, algorithmic trading, statistical analysis. Considerations: includes opening sentiment, smoothest of all options but potentially less responsive. Optimal for markets with significant opening moves, comprehensive trend analysis
Parameter Configuration Principles:
Important Note: Different moving average algorithms have distinct mathematical characteristics and response patterns. The same parameter settings may produce vastly different results when using different algorithms. When switching algorithms, parameter settings should be re-evaluated and tested for appropriateness.
Length Parameter Considerations:
Fast Length (Default 12): Shorter periods provide faster response but may increase noise and false signals, longer periods offer more stable signals but slower response, different algorithms respond differently to the same parameters and may require adjustment
Slow Length (Default 26): Should maintain a reasonable proportional relationship with fast length, different timeframes may require different parameter configurations, algorithm characteristics influence optimal length settings
Signal Length (Default 9): Shorter lengths produce more frequent crossovers but may increase false signals, longer lengths provide better signal confirmation but slower response, should be adjusted based on trading style and chosen algorithm characteristics
Comprehensive Algorithm Selection Framework:
MACD Line Algorithm Decision Matrix:
EMA (Standard Choice): Mathematical properties: exponential weighting, recent price emphasis. Best for general use, traditional MACD behavior, backtesting compatibility. Performance characteristics: good balance of speed and smoothness, widely understood behavior
SMA (Stability Focus): Equal weighting of all periods, maximum smoothness. Best for ranging markets, noise reduction, conservative trading. Trade-offs: slower signal generation, reduced sensitivity to recent price changes
HMA (Speed Optimized): Hull Moving Average, designed for reduced lag. Best for trending markets, quick reversals, active trading. Technical advantage: square root period weighting, faster trend detection. Caution: can be more sensitive to noise
KAMA (Adaptive): Kaufman Adaptive MA, adjusts smoothing based on market efficiency. Best for varying market conditions, algorithmic trading. Mechanism: fast smoothing in trends, slow smoothing in sideways markets. Complexity: requires understanding of efficiency ratio
Signal Line Algorithm Optimization Strategies:
Matching Strategy: Use same algorithm for both MACD and signal lines. Benefits: consistent mathematical properties, predictable behavior. Best when backtesting historical strategies, maintaining traditional MACD characteristics
Contrast Strategy: Use different algorithms for optimization. Common combinations: MACD=EMA, Signal=SMA for smoother crossovers, MACD=HMA, Signal=RMA for balanced speed/stability, Advanced: MACD=KAMA, Signal=T3 for adaptive behavior with smooth signals
Market Regime Adaptation: Trending markets: both fast algorithms (EMA/HMA), Volatile markets: MACD=KALMAN_FILTER, Signal=SUPER_SMOOTHER, Range-bound: both slow algorithms (SMA/RMA)
Parameter Sensitivity Considerations:
Impact of Parameter Changes:
Length Parameter Sensitivity: Small parameter adjustments can significantly affect signal timing, while larger adjustments may fundamentally change indicator behavior characteristics
Algorithm Sensitivity: Different algorithms produce different signal characteristics. Thoroughly test the impact on your trading strategy before switching algorithms
Combined Effects: Changing multiple parameters simultaneously can create unexpected effects. Recommendation: adjust parameters one at a time and thoroughly test each change
📈 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
Response Characteristics by Algorithm:
Fastest Response: ZLEMA, HMA, T3 - minimal lag but higher noise
Balanced Performance: EMA, DEMA, TEMA - good trade-off between speed and stability
Highest Stability: SMA, RMA, TMA - reduced noise but increased lag
Adaptive Behavior: KAMA, FRAMA, MCGINLEY_DYNAMIC - automatically adjust to market conditions
Noise Filtering Capabilities:
Advanced algorithms like KALMAN_FILTER and SUPER_SMOOTHER help reduce false signals compared to traditional EMA-based MACD. Noise-reducing algorithms can provide more stable signals in volatile market conditions, though results will vary based on market conditions and parameter settings.
Market Condition Adaptability:
Unlike fixed-algorithm MACD, this enhanced version allows real-time optimization. Trending markets benefit from responsive algorithms (EMA, HMA), while ranging markets perform better with stable algorithms (SMA, RMA). The ability to switch algorithms without changing indicators provides greater flexibility.
Comparative Performance vs Traditional MACD:
Algorithm Flexibility: 21 algorithms vs 1 fixed EMA
Signal Quality: Reduced false signals through noise filtering algorithms
Market Adaptability: Optimizable for any market condition vs fixed behavior
Customization Options: Independent algorithm selection for MACD and signal lines vs forced matching
Professional Features: Advanced color coding, multiple alert conditions, comprehensive parameter control
USAGE NOTES
This indicator is designed for technical analysis and educational purposes. Like all technical indicators, it has limitations and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. Algorithm performance varies with market conditions, and past characteristics do not guarantee future results. Always combine with proper risk management and thorough strategy testing.
Advanced Market Structure [OmegaTools]📌 Market Structure
Advanced Market Structure is a next–generation indicator designed to decode price structure in real time by combining classical swing–based analysis with modern quantitative confirmation techniques. Built for traders who demand both precision and adaptability, it provides a robust multi–layered framework to identify structural shifts, trend continuations, and potential reversals across any asset class or timeframe.
Unlike traditional structure indicators that rely solely on visual swing identification, Market Structure introduces an integrated methodology: pivot detection, Donchian trend modeling, statistical confirmation via Z–Score, and volume–based validation. Each element contributes to a comprehensive, systematic representation of the underlying market dynamics.
🔑 Core Features
1. Five Distinct Market Structure Modes
Standard Mode:
Captures structural breaks through classical swing high/low pivots. Ideal for discretionary traders looking for clarity in directional bias.
Confirmed Breakout Mode:
Requires validation beyond the initial pivot break, filtering out noise and reducing false positives.
Donchian Trend HL (High/Low):
Establishes structure based on absolute highs and lows over rolling lookback windows. This approach highlights broader momentum shifts and trend–defining extremes.
Donchian Trend CC (Close/Close):
Similar to HL mode, but calculated using closing prices, enabling more precise bias identification where close–to–close structure carries stronger statistical weight.
Average Mode:
A composite methodology that synthesizes the four models into a weighted signal, producing a balanced structural bias designed to minimize model–specific weaknesses.
2. Dynamic Pivot Recognition with Auto–Updating Levels
Swing highs and lows are automatically detected and plotted with adaptive horizontal levels. These dynamic support/resistance markers continuously extend into the future, ensuring that historically significant levels remain visible and actionable.
3. Color–Adaptive Candlesticks
Price bars are dynamically recolored to reflect the prevailing structural regime: bullish (default blue), bearish (default red), or neutral (gray). This enables instant visual recognition of regime changes without requiring external confirmation.
4. Statistical Reversal Triggers
The script integrates a 21–period Z–Score calculation applied to closing prices, combined with multi–layered volume confirmation (SMA and EMA convergence).
Bullish trigger: Z–Score < –2 with structural confirmation and volume support.
Bearish trigger: Z–Score > +2 with structural confirmation and volume support.
Signals are plotted as diamond markers above or below the bars, identifying potential high–probability reversal setups in real time.
5. Integrated Alpha Backtesting Engine
Each market structure mode is evaluated through a built–in backtesting routine, tracking hit ratios and consistency across the most recent ~2000 structural events.
Performance metrics (“Alpha”) are displayed directly on–chart via a dedicated Performance Dashboard Table, allowing side–by–side comparison of Standard, Confirmed Breakout, Donchian HL, Donchian CC, and Average models.
Traders can instantly evaluate which structural methodology best adapts to the current market conditions.
🎯 Practical Advantages
Systematic Clarity: Eliminates subjectivity in defining structural bias, offering a rules–based framework.
Statistical Transparency: Built–in performance metrics validate each mode in real time, allowing informed decision–making.
Noise Reduction: Confirmed Breakouts and Donchian modes filter out common traps in structural trading.
Multi–Asset Adaptability: Optimized for scalping, intraday, swing, and multi–day strategies across FX, equities, futures, commodities, and crypto.
Complementary Usage: Works as a stand–alone structure identifier or as a quantitative filter in larger algorithmic/trading frameworks.
⚙️ Ideal Users
Discretionary traders seeking an objective reference for structural bias.
Quantitative/systematic traders requiring on–chart statistical validation of structural regimes.
Technical analysts leveraging pivots, Donchian channels, and price action as part of broader frameworks.
Portfolio traders integrating structure into multi–factor models.
💡 Why This Tool?
Market Structure is not a static indicator — it is an adaptive framework. By merging classical pivot theory with Donchian–style momentum analysis, and reinforcing both with statistical backtesting and volume confirmation, it provides traders with a unique ability:
To see the structure,
To measure its reliability,
And to act with confidence on quantifiably validated signals.
Live Market - Performance MonitorLive Market — Performance Monitor
Study material (no code) — step-by-step training guide for learners
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1) What this tool is — short overview
This indicator is a live market performance monitor designed for learning. It scans price, volume and volatility, detects order blocks and trendline events, applies filters (volume & ATR), generates trade signals (BUY/SELL), creates simple TP/SL trade management, and renders a compact dashboard summarizing market state, risk and performance metrics.
Use it to learn how multi-factor signals are constructed, how Greeks-style sensitivity is replaced by volatility/ATR reasoning, and how a live dashboard helps monitor trade quality.
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2) Quick start — how a learner uses it (step-by-step)
1. Add the indicator to a chart (any ticker / timeframe).
2. Open inputs and review the main groups: Order Block, Trendline, Signal Filters, Display.
3. Start with defaults (OB periods ≈ 7, ATR multiplier 0.5, volume threshold 1.2) and observe the dashboard on the last bar.
4. Walk the chart back in time (use the last-bar update behavior) and watch how signals, order blocks, trendlines, and the performance counters change.
5. Run the hands-on labs below to build intuition.
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3) Main configurable inputs (what you can tweak)
• Order Block Relevant Periods (default ~7): number of consecutive candles used to define an order block.
• Min. Percent Move for Valid OB (threshold): minimum percent move required for a valid order block.
• Number of OB Channels: how many past order block lines to keep visible.
• Trendline Period (tl_period): pivot lookback for detecting highs/lows used to draw trendlines.
• Use Wicks for Trendlines: whether pivot uses wicks or body.
• Extension Bars: how far trendlines are projected forward.
• Use Volume Filter + Volume Threshold Multiplier (e.g., 1.2): requires volume to be greater than multiplier × average volume.
• Use ATR Filter + ATR Multiplier: require bar range > ATR × multiplier to filter noise.
• Show Targets / Table settings / Colors for visualization.
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4) Core building blocks — what the script computes (plain language)
Price & trend:
• Spot / LTP: current close price.
• EMA 9 / 21 / 50: fast, medium, slow moving averages to define short/medium trend.
o trend_bullish: EMA9 > EMA21 > EMA50
o trend_bearish: EMA9 < EMA21 < EMA50
o trend_neutral: otherwise
Volatility & noise:
• ATR (14): average true range used for dynamic target and filter sizing.
• dynamic_zone = ATR × atr_multiplier: minimum bar range required for meaningful move.
• Annualized volatility: stdev of price changes × sqrt(252) × 100 — used to classify volatility (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW).
Momentum & oscillators:
• RSI 14: overbought/oversold indicator (thresholds 70/30).
• MACD: EMA(12)-EMA(26) and a 9-period signal line; histogram used for momentum direction and strength.
• Momentum (ta.mom 10): raw momentum over 10 bars.
Mean reversion / band context:
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ): upper, mid, lower.
o price_position measures where price sits inside the band range as 0–100.
Volume metrics:
• avg_volume = SMA(volume, 20) and volume_spike = volume > avg_volume × volume_threshold
o volume_ratio = volume / avg_volume
Support & Resistance:
• support_level = lowest low over 20 bars
• resistance_level = highest high over 20 bars
• current_position = percent of price between support & resistance (0–100)
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5) Order Block detection — concept & logic
What it tries to find: a bar (the base) followed by N candles in the opposite direction (a classical order block setup), with a minimum % move to qualify. The script records the high/low of the base candle, averages them, and plots those levels as OB channels.
How learners should think about it (conceptual):
1. An order block is a signature area where institutions (theory) left liquidity — often seen as a large bar followed by a sequence of directional candles.
2. This indicator uses a configurable number of subsequent candles to confirm that the pattern exists.
3. When found, it stores and displays the base candle’s high/low area so students can see how price later reacts to those zones.
Implementation note for learners: the tool keeps a limited history of OB lines (ob_channels). When new OBs exceed the count, the oldest lines are removed — good practice to avoid clutter.
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6) Trendline detection — idea & interpretation
• The script finds pivot highs and lows using a symmetric lookback (tl_period and half that as right/left).
• It then computes a trendline slope from successive pivots and projects the line forward (extension_bars).
• Break detection: Resistance break = close crosses above the projected resistance line; Support break = close crosses below projected support.
Learning tip: trendlines here are computed from pivot points and time. Watch how changing tl_period (bigger = smoother, fewer pivots) alters the trendlines and break signals.
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7) Signal generation & filters — step-by-step
1. Primary triggers:
o Bullish trigger: order block bullish OR resistance trendline break.
o Bearish trigger: bearish order block OR support trendline break.
2. Filters applied (both must pass unless disabled):
o Volume filter: volume must be > avg_volume × volume_threshold.
o ATR filter: bar range (high-low) must exceed ATR × atr_multiplier.
o Not in an existing trade: new trades only start if trade_active is false.
3. Trend confirmation:
o The primary trigger is only confirmed if trend is bullish/neutral for buys or bearish/neutral for sells (EMA alignment).
4. Result:
o When confirmed, a long or short trade is activated with TP/SL calculated from ATR multiples.
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8) Trade management — what the tool does after a signal
• Entry management: the script marks a trade as trade_active and sets long_trade or short_trade flags.
• TP & SL rules:
o Long: TP = high + 2×ATR ; SL = low − 1×ATR
o Short: TP = low − 2×ATR ; SL = high + 1×ATR
• Monitoring & exit:
o A trade closes when price reaches TP or SL.
o When TP/SL hit, the indicator updates win_count and total_pnl using a very simple calculation (difference between TP/SL and previous close).
o Visual lines/labels are drawn for TP and updated as the trade runs.
Important learner notes:
• The script does not store a true entry price (it uses close in its P&L math), so PnL is an approximation — treat this as a learning proxy, not a position accounting system.
• There’s no sizing, slippage, or fee accounted — students must manually factor these when translating to real trades.
• This indicator is not a backtesting strategy; strategy.* functions would be needed for rigorous backtest results.
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9) Signal strength & helper utilities
• Signal strength is a composite score (0–100) made up of four signals worth 25 points each:
1. RSI extreme (overbought/oversold) → 25
2. Volume spike → 25
3. MACD histogram magnitude increasing → 25
4. Trend existence (bull or bear) → 25
• Progress bars (text glyphs) are used to visually show RSI and signal strength on the table.
Learning point: composite scoring is a way to combine orthogonal signals — study how changing weights changes outcomes.
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10) Dashboard — how to read each section (walkthrough)
The dashboard is split into sections; here's how to interpret them:
1. Market Overview
o LTP / Change%: immediate price & daily % change.
2. RSI & MACD
o RSI value plus progress bar (overbought 70 / oversold 30).
o MACD histogram sign indicates bullish/bearish momentum.
3. Volume Analysis
o Volume ratio (current / average) and whether there’s a spike.
4. Order Block Status
o Buy OB / Sell OB: the average base price of detected order blocks or “No Signal.”
5. Signal Status
o 🔼 BUY or 🔽 SELL if confirmed, or ⚪ WAIT.
o No-trade vs Active indicator summarizing market readiness.
6. Trend Analysis
o Trend direction (from EMAs), market sentiment score (composite), volatility level and band/position metrics.
7. Performance
o Win Rate = wins / signals (percentage)
o Total PnL = cumulative PnL (approximate)
o Bull / Bear Volume = accumulated volumes attributable to signals
8. Support & Resistance
o 20-bar highest/lowest — use as nearby reference points.
9. Risk & R:R
o Risk Level from ATR/price as a percent.
o R:R Ratio computed from TP/SL if a trade is active.
10. Signal Strength & Active Trade Status
• Numeric strength + progress bar and whether a trade is currently active with TP/SL display.
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11) Alerts — what will notify you
The indicator includes pre-built alert triggers for:
• Bullish confirmed signal
• Bearish confirmed signal
• TP hit (long/short)
• SL hit (long/short)
• No-trade zone
• High signal strength (score > 75%)
Training use: enable alerts during a replay session to be notified when the indicator would have signalled.
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12) Labs — hands-on exercises for learners (step-by-step)
Lab A — Order Block recognition
1. Pick a 15–30 minute timeframe on a liquid ticker.
2. Use default OB periods (7). Mark each time the dashboard shows a Buy/Sell OB.
3. Manually inspect the chart at the base candle and the following sequence — draw the OB zone by hand and watch later price reactions to it.
4. Repeat with OB periods 5 and 10; note stability vs noise.
Lab B — Trendline break confirmation
1. Increase trendline period (e.g., 20), watch trendlines form from pivots.
2. When a resistance break is flagged, compare with MACD & volume: was momentum aligned?
3. Note false breaks vs confirmed moves — change extension_bars to see projection effects.
Lab C — Filter sensitivity
1. Toggle Use Volume Filter off, and record the number and quality of signals in a 2-day window.
2. Re-enable volume filter and change threshold from 1.2 → 1.6; note how many low-quality signals are filtered out.
Lab D — Trade management simulation
1. For each signalled trade, record the time, close entry approximation, TP, SL, and eventual hit/miss.
2. Compute actual PnL if you had entered at the open of the next bar to compare with the script’s PnL math.
3. Tabulate win rate and average R:R.
Lab E — Performance review & improvement
1. Build a spreadsheet of signals over 30–90 periods with columns: Date, Signal type, Entry price (real), TP, SL, Exit, PnL, Notes.
2. Analyze which filters or indicators contributed most to winners vs losers and adjust weights.
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13) Common pitfalls, assumptions & implementation notes (things to watch)
• P&L simplification: total_pnl uses close as a proxy entry price. Real entry/exit prices and slippage are not recorded — so PnL is approximate.
• No position sizing or money management: the script doesn’t compute position size from equity or risk percent.
• Signal confirmation logic: composite "signal_strength" is a simple 4×25 point scheme — explore different weights or additional signals.
• Order block detection nuance: the script defines the base candle and checks the subsequent sequence. Be sure to verify whether the intended candle direction (base being bullish vs bearish) aligns with academic/your trading definition — read the code carefully and test.
• Trendline slope over time: slope is computed using timestamps; small differences may make lines sensitive on very short timeframes — using bar_index differences is usually more stable.
• Not a true backtester: to evaluate performance statistically you must transform the logic into a strategy script that places hypothetical orders and records exact entry/exit prices.
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14) Suggested improvements for advanced learners
• Record true entry price & timestamp for accurate PnL.
• Add position sizing: risk % per trade using SL distance and account size.
• Convert to strategy. (Pine Strategy)* to run formal backtests with equity curves, drawdowns, and metrics (Sharpe, Sortino).
• Log trades to an external spreadsheet (via alerts + webhook) for offline analysis.
• Add statistics: average win/loss, expectancy, max drawdown.
• Add additional filters: news time blackout, market session filters, multi-timeframe confirmation.
• Improve OB detection: combine wick/body, volume spike at base bar, and liquidity sweep detection.
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15) Glossary — quick definitions
• ATR (Average True Range): measure of typical range; used to size targets and stops.
• EMA (Exponential Moving Average): trend smoothing giving more weight to recent prices.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): momentum oscillator; >70 overbought, <30 oversold.
• MACD: momentum oscillator using difference of two EMAs.
• Bollinger Bands: volatility bands around SMA.
• Order Block: a base candle area with subsequent confirmation candles; a zone of institutional interest (learning model).
• Pivot High/Low: local turning point defined by candles on both sides.
• Signal Strength: combined score from multiple indicators.
• Win Rate: proportion of signals that hit TP vs total signals.
• R:R (Risk:Reward): ratio of potential reward (TP distance) to risk (entry to SL).
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16) Limitations & assumptions (be explicit)
• This is an indicator for learning — not a trading robot or broker connection.
• No slippage, fees, commissions or tie-in to real orders are considered.
• The logic is heuristic (rule-of-thumb), not a guarantee of performance.
• Results are sensitive to timeframe, market liquidity, and parameter choices.
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17) Practical classroom / study plan (4 sessions)
• Session 1 — Foundations: Understand EMAs, ATR, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands. Run the indicator and watch how these numbers change on a single day.
• Session 2 — Zones & Filters: Study order blocks and trendlines. Test volume & ATR filters and note changes in false signals.
• Session 3 — Simulated trading: Manually track 20 signals, compute real PnL and compare to the dashboard.
• Session 4 — Improvement plan: Propose changes (e.g., better PnL accounting, alternative OB rule) and test their impact.
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18) Quick reference checklist for each signal
1. Was an order block or trendline break detected? (primary trigger)
2. Did volume meet threshold? (filter)
3. Did ATR filter (bar size) show a real move? (filter)
4. Was trend aligned (EMA 9/21/50)? (confirmation)
5. Signal confirmed → mark entry approximation, TP, SL.
6. Monitor dashboard (Signal Strength, Volatility, No-trade zone, R:R).
7. After exit, log real entry/exit, compute actual PnL, update spreadsheet.
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19) Educational caveat & final note
This tool is built for training and analysis: it helps you see how common technical building blocks combine into trade ideas, but it is not a trading recommendation. Use it to develop judgment, to test hypotheses, and to design robust systems with proper backtesting and risk control before risking capital.
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20) Disclaimer (must include)
Training & Educational Only — This material and the indicator are provided for educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past simulated or historical performance does not predict future results. Always perform full backtesting and risk management, and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before trading with real capital.
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Infinite EMA with Alpha Control♾️ Infinite EMA with Alpha Control
What Makes This EMA "Infinite"?
Unlike traditional EMA indicators that are limited to typical periods (1-5000), this Infinite EMA breaks all boundaries. You can create EMAs with periods of 1,000, 10,000, or even 1,000,000 bars - that's why it's called "infinite"! Also Infinite EMA starts working immediately from the very first bar on your chart
Why This EMA is "Infinite":
1. Mathematically: When N → ∞, alpha → 0, meaning infinitely long "memory"
2. Practically: You can set any period - even 100,000 bars
3. Flexibility: Alpha allows precise control over the "forgetting speed"
How Does It Work?
The magic lies in the Alpha parameter. While regular EMAs use fixed formulas, this indicator gives you direct control over the EMA's "memory" through Alpha values:
• High Alpha (0.1-0.2): Fast reaction, short memory
• Medium Alpha (0.01-0.05): Balanced response
• Low Alpha (0.0001-0.001): Extremely slow reaction, very long memory
• Ultra-low Alpha (0.000001): Almost frozen in time
The Mathematical Formula:
Alpha = 2 / (Period + 1)
This means you can achieve any EMA period by adjusting Alpha, giving you infinite flexibility!
Expanded "Infinite EMA" Table:
Period EMA (N) - Alpha (Rounded) - Alpha (Exact) - Description
10 - 0.1818 - 0.181818... - Fast EMA
20 - 0.0952 - 0.095238... - Short-term
50 - 0.0392 - 0.039215... - Medium-term
100 - 0.0198 - 0.019801... - Long-term
200 - 0.0100 - 0.009950... - Standard long-term
500 - 0.0040 - 0.003996... - Very long-term
1,000 - 0.0020 - 0.001998... - Super long-term
2,000 - 0.0010 - 0.000999... - Ultra long-term
5,000 - 0.0004 - 0.000399... - Mega long-term
10,000 - 0.0002 - 0.000199... - Giga long-term
25,000 - 0.00008 - 0.000079... - Century-scale EMA
50,000 - 0.00004 - 0.000039... - Practically motionless
100,000 - 0.00002 - 0.000019... - "Glacial" EMA
500,000 - 0.000004 - 0.000003... - Geological timescale
1,000,000 - 0.000002 - 0.000001... - Approaching constant
5,000,000 - 0.0000004 - 0.0000003... - Virtually static
10,000,000 - 0.0000002 - 0.0000001... - Nearly flat line
100,000,000 - 0.00000002 - 0.00000001... - Mathematical infinity
Formula: Alpha = 2/(N+1) where N is the EMA period
Key Features:
Dual EMA System: Run fast and slow EMAs simultaneously
Crossover Signals: Automatic buy/sell signals with customizable alerts
Alpha Control: Direct mathematical control over EMA behavior
Infinite Periods: From 1 to 100,000,000+ bars
Visual Customization: Colors, fills, backgrounds, signal sizes
Instant Start: Works accurately from the very first bar
Update Intervals: Control calculation frequency for noise reduction
Why Choose Infinite EMA?
1. Unlimited Flexibility: Any period you can imagine
2. Mathematical Precision: Direct alpha control for exact behavior
3. Professional Grade: Suitable for all trading styles
4. Easy to Use: Simple settings with powerful results
5. No Warm-up Period: Accurate values from bar #1
Simple Explanation:
Think of EMA as a "memory system":
• High Alpha = Short memory (forgets quickly, reacts fast)
• Low Alpha = Long memory (remembers everything, moves slowly)
With Infinite EMA, you can set the "memory length" to anything from seconds to centuries!
⚡ Instant Start Feature - EMA from First Bar
Immediate Calculation from Bar #1
Unlike traditional EMA indicators that require a "warm-up period" of N bars before showing accurate values, Infinite EMA starts working immediately from the very first bar on your chart.
How It Works:
Traditional EMA Problem:
• Standard 200-period EMA: Needs 200+ bars to become accurate
• First 200 bars: Shows incorrect/unstable values
• Result: Large portions of historical data are unusable
Infinite EMA Solution:
Bar #1: EMA = Current Price (perfect starting point)
Bar #2: EMA = Alpha × Price + (1-Alpha) × Previous EMA
Bar #3: EMA = Alpha × Price + (1-Alpha) × Previous EMA
...and so on
Key Benefits:
No Warm-up Period: Start trading signals from day one
Full Chart Coverage: Every bar has a valid EMA value
Historical Accuracy: Backtesting works on entire dataset
New Markets: Works perfectly on newly listed assets
Short Datasets: Effective even with limited historical data
Practical Impact:
Scenario Traditional EMA Infinite EMA
New cryptocurrency Unusable for first 200 days ✅ Works from day 1
Limited data (< 200 bars) Inaccurate values ✅ Fully functional
Backtesting Must skip first 200 bars ✅ Test entire history
Real-time trading Wait for stabilization ✅ Trade immediately
Technical Implementation:
if barstate.isfirst
EMA := currentPrice // Perfect initialization
else
EMA := alpha × currentPrice + (1-alpha) × previousEMA
This smart initialization ensures mathematical accuracy from the very first calculation, eliminating the traditional EMA "ramp-up" problem.
Why This Matters:
For Backesters: Use 100% of available data
For Live Trading: Get signals immediately on any timeframe
For Researchers: Analyze complete datasets without gaps
Bottom Line: Infinite EMA is ready to work the moment you add it to your chart - no waiting, no warm-up, no exceptions!
Unlike traditional EMAs that require a "warm-up period" of 200+ bars before showing accurate values, Infinite EMA starts working immediately from bar #1.
This breakthrough eliminates the common problem where the first portion of your chart shows unreliable EMA data. Whether you're analyzing a newly listed cryptocurrency, working with limited historical data, or backtesting strategies, every single bar provides mathematically accurate EMA values.
No more waiting periods, no more unusable data sections - just instant, reliable trend analysis from the moment you apply the indicator to any chart.
🔄 Update Interval Bars Feature
The Update Interval feature allows you to control how frequently the EMA recalculates, providing flexible noise filtering without changing the core mathematics.
Set to 1 for standard behavior (updates every bar), or increase to 5-10 for smoother signals that update less frequently. Higher intervals reduce market noise and false signals but introduce slightly more lag. This is particularly useful on volatile timeframes where you want the EMA's directional bias without every minor price fluctuation affecting the calculation.
Perfect for swing traders who prefer cleaner, more stable trend lines over hyper-responsive indicators.
Conclusion
The Infinite EMA transforms the traditional EMA from a fixed-period tool into a precision instrument with unlimited flexibility. By understanding the Alpha-Period relationship, traders can create custom EMAs that perfectly match their trading style, timeframe, and market conditions.
The "infinite" nature comes from the ability to set any period imaginable - from ultra-fast 2-bar EMAs to glacially slow 10-million-bar EMAs, all controlled through a single Alpha parameter.
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Whether you're a beginner looking for simple trend following or a professional researcher analyzing century-long patterns, Infinite EMA adapts to your needs. The power of infinite periods is now in your hands! 🚀
Go forward to the horizon. When you reach it, a new one will open up.
- J. P. Morgan
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
REFERENCES
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2007). Stock return predictability: Is it there? Review of Financial Studies, 20(3), 651-707.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-152.
Berger, P. G., & Ofek, E. (1995). Diversification's effect on firm value. Journal of Financial Economics, 37(1), 39-65.
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Calmar, T. (1991). The Calmar ratio: A smoother tool. Futures, 20(1), 40.
Edwards, R. D., Magee, J., & Bassetti, W. H. C. (2018). Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. 11th ed. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 3-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
Giot, P. (2005). Relationships between implied volatility indexes and stock index returns. Journal of Portfolio Management, 31(3), 92-100.
Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (2008). Security Analysis. 6th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Grinold, R. C., & Kahn, R. N. (1999). Active Portfolio Management. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Guidolin, M., & Timmermann, A. (2007). Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(11), 3503-3544.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk. Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Miller, G. A. (1956). The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological Review, 63(2), 81-97.
Penman, S. H. (2012). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Piotroski, J. D. (2000). Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers. Journal of Accounting Research, 38, 1-41.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Sharpe, W. F. (1994). The Sharpe ratio. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), 49-58.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Whaley, R. E. (1993). Derivatives on market volatility: Hedging tools long overdue. Journal of Derivatives, 1(1), 71-84.
Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Greensboro: Trend Research.
SuperTrend Strategy with Trend-Based Exits🟩 SuperTrend Strategy with Trend-Based Exits
This is a fully automated trend-following strategy based on the popular SuperTrend indicator, enhanced with a position sizing algorithm tied to stop-loss distance and dynamic entry/exit rules. The strategy is designed for futures trading with an emphasis on sustainable risk, realistic backtesting, and transparent logic.
🧠 Concept and Methodology
The strategy uses the SuperTrend indicator, which is derived from ATR (Average True Range) and is widely used to capture medium- to long-term market trends.
Key features:
✅ Entries are triggered only when the SuperTrend direction changes (trend reversal).
✅ Exits are performed using a dynamic stop-loss placed at the SuperTrend line.
✅ Position size is automatically calculated based on the trader’s fixed dollar risk per trade and the current distance to the stop-loss.
✅ Rounding logic is included to ensure quantity is valid for the exchange’s lot size.
This strategy does not use any take-profit or classic trailing stop — the position is only closed when the trend reverses or the stop is hit by touching the SuperTrend line.
⚙️ Default Parameters
ATR Length: 300
Factor: 7.5
Risk per trade: $90 (3% of the default $3,000 capital)
Lot step: 10
Commission: 0.05%
These default parameters are not universal. They were optimized specifically for STXUSDT swap at 15M timeframe at Bybit and may not produce viable results on other pairs and timeframes.
Users are encouraged to customize the settings according to specific asset’s volatility, timeframe and other characteristics.
❗ These default settings yield meaningful backtesting results on STXUSDT with a reasonable number of trades (105+) over 7-month period. If applied to other assets, results may vary significantly.
📈 Position Sizing Logic
The strategy uses a dynamic position sizing formula:
Pine Script®
position_size = floor((risk_per_trade / stop_loss_distance) / lot_step) * lot_step
This ensures the trader always risks a fixed dollar amount per trade and never exceeds a sustainable equity exposure (recommended 2% or less).
✅ Realism in Backtesting
To ensure realistic and non-misleading backtest results, this strategy includes:
— Slippage and commission settings matching average exchange conditions (commission = 0.05%, slippage 5 ticks).
— Position sizing based on stop-loss distance (not fixed contract quantity).*
— A fixed risk-per-trade model that adheres to responsible capital management principles.
— This is in compliance with TradingView's Script publishing rules and House Rules.
📌 How to Use
Apply the strategy to a clean chart (preferably 15M for STXUSDT by default).
If using another asset, adjust:
- ATR Length
- Factor
- Risk per trade
- Qty step (lot precision for the symbol)
Avoid using with other indicators unless you understand their purpose.
Use the Strategy Tester to evaluate performance and optimize parameters.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. Always perform forward testing and assess risk before deploying any strategy on live capital. The strategy is designed for educational and experimental use.
Modular Range-Trading Strategy (V9.2)# 模块化震荡行情策略 (V9.2)
# Modular Range-Trading Strategy (V9.2)
## 策略简介 | Strategy Overview
该策略基于布林带 (Bollinger Bands)、RSI、MACD、ADX 等经典指标的组合，通过多逻辑模块化结构识别震荡区间的价格反转机会，支持多空双向操作，并在相同逻辑下允许智能加仓，适用于震荡市场的回测和研究。
This strategy combines classic indicators such as Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and ADX to identify price reversal opportunities within ranging markets. It features a modular multi-logic structure, allowing both long and short trades with intelligent pyramiding under the same logic. It is designed for backtesting and research in range-bound conditions.
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## 功能特点 | Key Features
- **多逻辑结构**：支持多套震荡逻辑（动能确认均值回归、布林带极限反转等）。
- **加仓与仓位互斥**：同逻辑下可智能加仓，不同逻辑间自动互斥，避免冲突。
- **回测可调时间范围**：可自定义回测起止时间，精准评估策略表现。
- **指标可视化**：布林带、RSI、MACD 及动态 ATR 止损线实时绘图。
- **K线收盘确认信号**：通过 `barstate.isconfirmed` 控制信号，避免未收盘的虚假信号。
- **Multi-logic structure**: Supports multiple range-trading logics (e.g., momentum-based mean reversion, Bollinger Band reversals).
- **Pyramiding with mutual exclusion**: Allows intelligent pyramiding within the same logic while preventing conflicts between different logics.
- **Adjustable backtesting range**: Customizable start and end dates for accurate performance evaluation.
- **Visual indicators**: Real-time plotting of Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and dynamic ATR stop lines.
- **Close-bar confirmation**: Uses `barstate.isconfirmed` to avoid false signals before bar close.
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## 使用说明 | Usage
1. 将该脚本添加到 TradingView 图表。
2. 在参数中设置回测时间段和指标参数。
3. 仅用于学习与策略研究，请勿直接用于实盘交易。
1. Add this script to your TradingView chart.
2. Configure backtesting dates and indicator parameters as needed.
3. For educational and research purposes only. **Not for live trading.**
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## ⚠️ 免责声明 | Disclaimer
本策略仅供学习和研究使用，不构成任何形式的投资建议。
作者不参与任何实盘交易、资金管理或收益分成，也不保证策略盈利能力。
严禁将本脚本用于任何非法集资、私募募资或与虚拟货币相关的金融违法活动。
使用本策略即表示您自行承担所有风险与法律责任。
This strategy is for educational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
The author does not participate in live trading, asset management, or profit sharing, nor guarantee profitability.
The use of this script in illegal fundraising, private placements, or cryptocurrency-related financial activities is strictly prohibited.
By using this strategy, you accept all risks and legal responsibilities.
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MACD Liquidity Tracker Strategy [Quant Trading]MACD Liquidity Tracker Strategy
Overview
The MACD Liquidity Tracker Strategy is an enhanced trading system that transforms the traditional MACD indicator into a comprehensive momentum-based strategy with advanced visual signals and risk management. This strategy builds upon the original MACD Liquidity Tracker System indicator by TheNeWSystemLqtyTrckr , converting it into a fully automated trading strategy with improved parameters and additional features.
What Makes This Strategy Original
This strategy significantly enhances the basic MACD approach by introducing:
Four distinct system types for different market conditions and trading styles
Advanced color-coded histogram visualization with four dynamic colors showing momentum strength and direction
Integrated trend filtering using 9 different moving average types
Comprehensive risk management with customizable stop-loss and take-profit levels
Multiple alert systems for entry signals, exits, and trend conditions
Flexible signal display options with customizable entry markers
How It Works
Core MACD Calculation
The strategy uses a fully customizable MACD configuration with traditional default parameters:
Fast MA : 12 periods (customizable, minimum 1, no maximum limit)
Slow MA : 26 periods (customizable, minimum 1, no maximum limit)
Signal Line : 9 periods (customizable, now properly implemented and used)
Cryptocurrency Optimization : The strategy's flexible parameter system allows for significant optimization across different crypto assets. Traditional MACD settings (12/26/9) often generate excessive noise and false signals in volatile crypto markets. By using slower, more smoothed parameters, traders can capture meaningful momentum shifts while filtering out market noise.
Example - DOGE Optimization (45/80/290 settings) :
• Performance : Optimized parameters yielding exceptional backtesting results with 29,800% PnL
• Why it works : DOGE's high volatility and social sentiment-driven price action benefits from heavily smoothed indicators
• Timeframes : Particularly effective on 30-minute and 4-hour charts for swing trading
• Logic : The very slow parameters filter out noise and capture only the most significant trend changes
Other Optimizable Cryptocurrencies : This parameter flexibility makes the strategy highly effective for major altcoins including SUI, SEI, LINK, Solana (SOL) , and many others. Each crypto asset can benefit from custom parameter tuning based on its unique volatility profile and trading characteristics.
Four Trading System Types
1. Normal System (Default)
Long signals : When MACD line is above the signal line
Short signals : When MACD line is below the signal line
Best for : Swing trading and capturing longer-term trends in stable markets
Logic : Traditional MACD crossover approach using the signal line
2. Fast System
Long signals : Bright Blue OR Dark Magenta (transparent) histogram colors
Short signals : Dark Blue (transparent) OR Bright Magenta histogram colors
Best for : Scalping and high-volatility markets (crypto, forex)
Logic : Leverages early momentum shifts based on histogram color changes
3. Safe System
Long signals : Only Bright Blue histogram color (strongest bullish momentum)
Short signals : All other colors (Dark Blue, Bright Magenta, Dark Magenta)
Best for : Risk-averse traders and choppy markets
Logic : Prioritizes only the strongest bullish signals while treating everything else as bearish
4. Crossover System
Long signals : MACD line crosses above signal line
Short signals : MACD line crosses below signal line
Best for : Precise timing entries with traditional MACD methodology
Logic : Pure crossover signals for more precise entry timing
Color-Coded Histogram Logic
The strategy uses four distinct colors to visualize momentum:
🔹 Bright Blue : MACD > 0 and rising (strong bullish momentum)
🔹 Dark Blue (Transparent) : MACD > 0 but falling (weakening bullish momentum)
🔹 Bright Magenta : MACD < 0 and falling (strong bearish momentum)
🔹 Dark Magenta (Transparent) : MACD < 0 but rising (weakening bearish momentum)
Trend Filter Integration
The strategy includes an advanced trend filter using 9 different moving average types:
SMA (Simple Moving Average)
EMA (Exponential Moving Average) - Default
WMA (Weighted Moving Average)
HMA (Hull Moving Average)
RMA (Running Moving Average)
LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average)
DEMA (Double Exponential Moving Average)
TEMA (Triple Exponential Moving Average)
VIDYA (Variable Index Dynamic Average)
Default Settings : 50-period EMA for trend identification
Visual Signal System
Entry Markers : Blue triangles (▲) below candles for long entries, Magenta triangles (▼) above candles for short entries
Candle Coloring : Price candles change color based on active signals (Blue = Long, Magenta = Short)
Signal Text : Optional "Long" or "Short" text inside entry triangles (toggleable)
Trend MA : Gray line plotted on main chart for trend reference
Parameter Optimization Examples
DOGE Trading Success (Optimized Parameters) :
Using 45/80/290 MACD settings with 50-period EMA trend filter has shown exceptional results on DOGE:
Performance : Backtesting results showing 29,800% PnL demonstrate the power of proper parameter optimization
Reasoning : DOGE's meme-driven volatility and social sentiment spikes create significant noise with traditional MACD settings
Solution : Very slow parameters (45/80/290) filter out social media-driven price spikes while capturing only major momentum shifts
Optimal Timeframes : 30-minute and 4-hour charts for swing trading opportunities
Result : Exceptionally clean signals with minimal false entries during DOGE's characteristic pump-and-dump cycles
Multi-Crypto Adaptability :
The same optimization principles apply to other major cryptocurrencies:
SUI : Benefits from smoothed parameters due to newer coin volatility patterns
SEI : Requires adjustment for its unique DeFi-related price movements
LINK : Oracle news events create price spikes that benefit from noise filtering
Solana (SOL) : Network congestion events and ecosystem developments need smoothed detection
General Rule : Higher volatility coins typically benefit from very slow MACD parameters (40-50 / 70-90 / 250-300 ranges)
Key Input Parameters
System Type : Choose between Fast, Normal, Safe, or Crossover (Default: Normal)
MACD Fast MA : 12 periods default (no maximum limit, consider 40-50 for crypto optimization)
MACD Slow MA : 26 periods default (no maximum limit, consider 70-90 for crypto optimization)
MACD Signal MA : 9 periods default (now properly utilized, consider 250-300 for crypto optimization)
Trend MA Type : EMA default (9 options available)
Trend MA Length : 50 periods default (no maximum limit)
Signal Display : Both, Long Only, Short Only, or None
Show Signal Text : True/False toggle for entry marker text
Trading Applications
Recommended Use Cases
Momentum Trading : Capitalize on strong directional moves using the color-coded system
Trend Following : Combine MACD signals with trend MA filter for higher probability trades
Scalping : Use "Fast" system type for quick entries in volatile markets
Swing Trading : Use "Normal" or "Safe" system types for longer-term positions
Cryptocurrency Trading : Optimize parameters for individual crypto assets (e.g., 45/80/290 for DOGE, custom settings for SUI, SEI, LINK, SOL)
Market Suitability
Volatile Markets : Forex, crypto, indices (recommend "Fast" system or smoothed parameters)
Stable Markets : Stocks, ETFs (recommend "Normal" or "Safe" system)
All Timeframes : Effective from 1-minute charts to daily charts
Crypto Optimization : Each major cryptocurrency (DOGE, SUI, SEI, LINK, SOL, etc.) can benefit from custom parameter tuning. Consider slower MACD parameters for noise reduction in volatile crypto markets
Alert System
The strategy provides comprehensive alerts for:
Entry Signals : Long and short entry triangle appearances
Exit Signals : Position exit notifications
Color Changes : Individual histogram color alerts
Trend Conditions : Price above/below trend MA alerts
Strategy Parameters
Default Settings
Initial Capital : $1,000
Position Size : 100% of equity
Commission : 0.1%
Slippage : 3 points
Date Range : January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2069
Risk Management (Optional)
Stop Loss : Disabled by default (customizable percentage-based)
Take Profit : Disabled by default (customizable percentage-based)
Short Trades : Disabled by default (can be enabled)
Important Notes and Limitations
Backtesting Considerations
Uses realistic commission (0.1%) and slippage (3 points)
Default position sizing uses 100% equity - adjust based on risk tolerance
Stop-loss and take-profit are disabled by default to show raw strategy performance
Strategy does not use lookahead bias or future data
Risk Warnings
Past performance does not guarantee future results
MACD-based strategies may produce false signals in ranging markets
Consider combining with additional confluences like support/resistance levels
Test thoroughly on demo accounts before live trading
Adjust position sizing based on your risk management requirements
Technical Limitations
Strategy does not work on non-standard chart types (Heikin Ashi, Renko, etc.)
Signals are based on close prices and may not reflect intraday price action
Multiple rapid signals in volatile conditions may result in overtrading
Credits and Attribution
This strategy is based on the original "MACD Liquidity Tracker System" indicator created by TheNeWSystemLqtyTrckr . This strategy version includes significant enhancements:
Complete strategy implementation with entry/exit logic
Addition of the "Crossover" system type
Proper implementation and utilization of the MACD signal line
Enhanced risk management features
Improved parameter flexibility with no artificial maximum limits
Additional alert systems for comprehensive trade management
The original indicator's core color logic and visual system have been preserved while expanding functionality for automated trading applications.
Zero-Lag RSI DivergenceZero-Lag RSI Divergence
Overview
This indicator identifies RSI divergences in real-time without delay, providing immediate signals as price-momentum discrepancies develop. The indicator analyzes price action against RSI momentum across dual configurable periods, enabling traders to detect potential reversal opportunities with zero lag.
Key Features
Instant Divergence Detection : Identifies bullish and bearish divergences immediately upon formation without waiting for candle confirmation or historical validation. This eliminates signal delay but may increase false signals due to higher sensitivity.
Dual Period Analysis : Configure detection across two independent cycles - Short Period (default 15) and Long Period (default 50) - allowing for multi-timeframe divergence analysis and enhanced signal validation across different market conditions.
Visual Divergence Lines : Automatically draws dashed lines connecting divergence points between price highs/lows and corresponding RSI peaks/troughs, clearly illustrating the momentum-price relationship.
Customizable RSI Parameters : Adjustable RSI length (default 14) allows optimization for different market volatility and trading timeframes.
How It Works
The indicator continuously monitors price action patterns and RSI momentum:
- Bullish Divergence : Detected when price makes lower lows while RSI makes higher lows, suggesting potential upward momentum
- Bearish Divergence : Identified when price makes higher highs while RSI makes lower highs, indicating potential downward momentum
The algorithm uses candle color transitions and immediate RSI comparisons to trigger signals without historical repainting , ensuring backtesting accuracy and real-time reliability.
How To Read
Important Notes
Higher Signal Frequency : The zero-lag approach increases signal sensitivity, generating more frequent alerts that may include false signals. Consider using additional confirmation methods for trade entries.
Non-Repainting : All signals are generated and maintained without historical modification, ensuring consistent backtesting and forward-testing results.
Input Parameters
RSI Length: Period for RSI calculation (default: 14)
Short/Long Periods: Lookback periods for divergence detection (default: 15/50)
Line Colors: Customizable colors for short and long period divergence lines
Label Settings: Optional divergence labels with custom text
This indicator is designed for traders seeking immediate divergence identification across multiple timeframes while maintaining signal integrity and backtesting reliability.
VoVix DEVMA🌌 VoVix DEVMA: A Deep Dive into Second-Order Volatility Dynamics
Welcome to VoVix+, a sophisticated trading framework that transcends traditional price analysis. This is not merely another indicator; it is a complete system designed to dissect and interpret the very fabric of market volatility. VoVix+ operates on the principle that the most powerful signals are not found in price alone, but in the behavior of volatility itself. It analyzes the rate of change, the momentum, and the structure of market volatility to identify periods of expansion and contraction, providing a unique edge in anticipating major market moves.
This document will serve as your comprehensive guide, breaking down every mathematical component, every user input, and every visual element to empower you with a profound understanding of how to harness its capabilities.
🔬 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION: THE MATHEMATICS OF MARKET DYNAMICS
VoVix+ is built upon a multi-layered mathematical engine designed to measure what we call "second-order volatility." While standard indicators analyze price, and first-order volatility indicators (like ATR) analyze the range of price, VoVix+ analyzes the dynamics of the volatility itself. This provides insight into the market's underlying state of stability or chaos.
1. The VoVix Score: Measuring Volatility Thrust
The core of the system begins with the VoVix Score. This is a normalized measure of volatility acceleration or deceleration.
Mathematical Formula:
VoVix Score = (ATR(fast) - ATR(slow)) / (StDev(ATR(fast)) + ε)
Where:
ATR(fast) is the Average True Range over a short period, representing current, immediate volatility.
ATR(slow) is the Average True Range over a longer period, representing the baseline or established volatility.
StDev(ATR(fast)) is the Standard Deviation of the fast ATR, which measures the "noisiness" or consistency of recent volatility.
ε (epsilon) is a very small number to prevent division by zero.
Market Implementation:
Positive Score (Expansion): When the fast ATR is significantly higher than the slow ATR, it indicates a rapid increase in volatility. The market is "stretching" or expanding.
Negative Score (Contraction): When the fast ATR falls below the slow ATR, it indicates a decrease in volatility. The market is "coiling" or contracting.
Normalization: By dividing by the standard deviation, we normalize the score. This turns it into a standardized measure, allowing us to compare volatility thrust across different market conditions and timeframes. A score of 2.0 in a quiet market means the same, relatively, as a score of 2.0 in a volatile market.
2. Deviation Analysis (DEV): Gauging Volatility's Own Volatility
The script then takes the analysis a step further. It calculates the standard deviation of the VoVix Score itself.
Mathematical Formula:
DEV = StDev(VoVix Score, lookback_period)
Market Implementation:
This DEV value represents the magnitude of chaos or stability in the market's volatility dynamics. A high DEV value means the volatility thrust is erratic and unpredictable. A low DEV value suggests the change in volatility is smooth and directional.
3. The DEVMA Crossover: Identifying Regime Shifts
This is the primary signal generator. We take two moving averages of the DEV value.
Mathematical Formula:
fastDEVMA = SMA(DEV, fast_period)
slowDEVMA = SMA(DEV, slow_period)
The Core Signal:
The strategy triggers on the crossover and crossunder of these two DEVMA lines. This is a profound concept: we are not looking at a moving average of price or even of volatility, but a moving average of the standard deviation of the normalized rate of change of volatility.
Bullish Crossover (fastDEVMA > slowDEVMA): This signals that the short-term measure of volatility's chaos is increasing relative to the long-term measure. This often precedes a significant market expansion and is interpreted as a bullish volatility regime.
Bearish Crossunder (fastDEVMA < slowDEVMA): This signals that the short-term measure of volatility's chaos is decreasing. The market is settling down or contracting, often leading to trending moves or range consolidation.
⚙️ INPUTS MENU: CONFIGURING YOUR ANALYSIS ENGINE
Every input has been meticulously designed to give you full control over the strategy's behavior. Understanding these settings is key to adapting VoVix+ to your specific instrument, timeframe, and trading style.
🌀 VoVix DEVMA Configuration
🧬 Deviation Lookback: This sets the lookback period for calculating the DEV value. It defines the window for measuring the stability of the VoVix Score. A shorter value makes the system highly reactive to recent changes in volatility's character, ideal for scalping. A longer value provides a smoother, more stable reading, better for identifying major, long-term regime shifts.
⚡ Fast VoVix Length: This is the lookback period for the fastDEVMA. It represents the short-term trend of volatility's chaos. A smaller number will result in a faster, more sensitive signal line that reacts quickly to market shifts.
🐌 Slow VoVix Length: This is the lookback period for the slowDEVMA. It represents the long-term, baseline trend of volatility's chaos. A larger number creates a more stable, slower-moving anchor against which the fast line is compared.
How to Optimize: The relationship between the Fast and Slow lengths is crucial. A wider gap (e.g., 20 and 60) will result in fewer, but potentially more significant, signals. A narrower gap (e.g., 25 and 40) will generate more frequent signals, suitable for more active trading styles.
🧠 Adaptive Intelligence
🧠 Enable Adaptive Features: When enabled, this activates the strategy's performance tracking module. The script will analyze the outcome of its last 50 trades to calculate a dynamic win rate.
⏰ Adaptive Time-Based Exit: If Enable Adaptive Features is on, this allows the strategy to adjust its Maximum Bars in Trade setting based on performance. It learns from the average duration of winning trades. If winning trades tend to be short, it may shorten the time exit to lock in profits. If winners tend to run, it will extend the time exit, allowing trades more room to develop. This helps prevent the strategy from cutting winning trades short or holding losing trades for too long.
⚡ Intelligent Execution
📊 Trade Quantity: A straightforward input that defines the number of contracts or shares for each trade. This is a fixed value for consistent position sizing.
🛡️ Smart Stop Loss: Enables the dynamic stop-loss mechanism.
🎯 Stop Loss ATR Multiplier: Determines the distance of the stop loss from the entry price, calculated as a multiple of the current 14-period ATR. A higher multiplier gives the trade more room to breathe but increases risk per trade. A lower multiplier creates a tighter stop, reducing risk but increasing the chance of being stopped out by normal market noise.
💰 Take Profit ATR Multiplier: Sets the take profit target, also as a multiple of the ATR. A common practice is to set this higher than the Stop Loss multiplier (e.g., a 2:1 or 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio).
🏃 Use Trailing Stop: This is a powerful feature for trend-following. When enabled, instead of a fixed stop loss, the stop will trail behind the price as the trade moves into profit, helping to lock in gains while letting winners run.
🎯 Trail Points & 📏 Trail Offset ATR Multipliers: These control the trailing stop's behavior. Trail Points defines how much profit is needed before the trail activates. Trail Offset defines how far the stop will trail behind the current price. Both are based on ATR, making them fully adaptive to market volatility.
⏰ Maximum Bars in Trade: This is a time-based stop. It forces an exit if a trade has been open for a specified number of bars, preventing positions from being held indefinitely in stagnant markets.
⏰ Session Management
These inputs allow you to confine the strategy's trading activity to specific market hours, which is crucial for day trading instruments that have defined high-volume sessions (e.g., stock market open).
🎨 Visual Effects & Dashboard
These toggles give you complete control over the on-chart visuals and the dashboard. You can disable any element to declutter your chart or focus only on the information that matters most to you.
📊 THE DASHBOARD: YOUR AT-A-GLANCE COMMAND CENTER
The dashboard centralizes all critical information into one compact, easy-to-read panel. It provides a real-time summary of the market state and strategy performance.
🎯 VOVIX ANALYSIS
Fast & Slow: Displays the current numerical values of the fastDEVMA and slowDEVMA. The color indicates their direction: green for rising, red for falling. This lets you see the underlying momentum of each line.
Regime: This is your most important environmental cue. It tells you the market's current state based on the DEVMA relationship. 🚀 EXPANSION (Green) signifies a bullish volatility regime where explosive moves are more likely. ⚛️ CONTRACTION (Purple) signifies a bearish volatility regime, where the market may be consolidating or entering a smoother trend.
Quality: Measures the strength of the last signal based on the magnitude of the DEVMA difference. An ELITE or STRONG signal indicates a high-conviction setup where the crossover had significant force.
PERFORMANCE
Win Rate & Trades: Displays the historical win rate of the strategy from the backtest, along with the total number of closed trades. This provides immediate feedback on the strategy's historical effectiveness on the current chart.
EXECUTION
Trade Qty: Shows your configured position size per trade.
Session: Indicates whether trading is currently OPEN (allowed) or CLOSED based on your session management settings.
POSITION
Position & PnL: Displays your current position (LONG, SHORT, or FLAT) and the real-time Profit or Loss of the open trade.
🧠 ADAPTIVE STATUS
Stop/Profit Mult: In this simplified version, these are placeholders. The primary adaptive feature currently modifies the time-based exit, which is reflected in how long trades are held on the chart.
🎨 THE VISUAL UNIVERSE: DECIPHERING MARKET GEOMETRY
The visuals are not mere decorations; they are geometric representations of the underlying mathematical concepts, designed to give you an intuitive feel for the market's state.
The Core Lines:
FastDEVMA (Green/Maroon Line): The primary signal line. Green when rising, indicating an increase in short-term volatility chaos. Maroon when falling.
SlowDEVMA (Aqua/Orange Line): The baseline. Aqua when rising, indicating a long-term increase in volatility chaos. Orange when falling.
🌊 Morphism Flow (Flowing Lines with Circles):
What it represents: This visualizes the momentum and strength of the fastDEVMA. The width and intensity of the "beam" are proportional to the signal strength.
Interpretation: A thick, steep, and vibrant flow indicates powerful, committed momentum in the current volatility regime. The floating '●' particles represent kinetic energy; more particles suggest stronger underlying force.
📐 Homotopy Paths (Layered Transparent Boxes):
What it represents: These layered boxes are centered between the two DEVMA lines. Their height is determined by the DEV value.
Interpretation: This visualizes the overall "volatility of volatility." Wider boxes indicate a chaotic, unpredictable market. Narrower boxes suggest a more stable, predictable environment.
🧠 Consciousness Field (The Grid):
What it represents: This grid provides a historical lookback at the DEV range.
Interpretation: It maps the recent "consciousness" or character of the market's volatility. A consistently wide grid suggests a prolonged period of chaos, while a narrowing grid can signal a transition to a more stable state.
📏 Functorial Levels (Projected Horizontal Lines):
What it represents: These lines extend from the current fastDEVMA and slowDEVMA values into the future.
Interpretation: Think of these as dynamic support and resistance levels for the volatility structure itself. A crossover becomes more significant if it breaks cleanly through a prior established level.
🌊 Flow Boxes (Spaced Out Boxes):
What it represents: These are compact visual footprints of the current regime, colored green for Expansion and red for Contraction.
Interpretation: They provide a quick, at-a-glance confirmation of the dominant volatility flow, reinforcing the background color.
Background Color:
This provides an immediate, unmistakable indication of the current volatility regime. Light Green for Expansion and Light Aqua/Blue for Contraction, allowing you to assess the market environment in a split second.
📊 BACKTESTING PERFORMANCE REVIEW & ANALYSIS
The following is a factual, transparent review of a backtest conducted using the strategy's default settings on a specific instrument and timeframe. This information is presented for educational purposes to demonstrate how the strategy's mechanics performed over a historical period. It is crucial to understand that these results are historical, apply only to the specific conditions of this test, and are not a guarantee or promise of future performance. Market conditions are dynamic and constantly change.
Test Parameters & Conditions
To ensure the backtest reflects a degree of real-world conditions, the following parameters were used. The goal is to provide a transparent baseline, not an over-optimized or unrealistic scenario.
Instrument: CME E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ1!)
Timeframe: 5-Minute Chart
Backtesting Range: March 24, 2024, to July 09, 2024
Initial Capital: $100,000
Commission: $0.62 per contract (A realistic cost for futures trading).
Slippage: 3 ticks per trade (A conservative setting to account for potential price discrepancies between order placement and execution).
Trade Size: 1 contract per trade.
Performance Overview (Historical Data)
The test period generated 465 total trades , providing a statistically significant sample size for analysis, which is well above the recommended minimum of 100 trades for a strategy evaluation.
Profit Factor: The historical Profit Factor was 2.663 . This metric represents the gross profit divided by the gross loss. In this test, it indicates that for every dollar lost, $2.663 was gained.
Percent Profitable: Across all 465 trades, the strategy had a historical win rate of 84.09% . While a high figure, this is a historical artifact of this specific data set and settings, and should not be the sole basis for future expectations.
Risk & Trade Characteristics
Beyond the headline numbers, the following metrics provide deeper insight into the strategy's historical behavior.
Sortino Ratio (Downside Risk): The Sortino Ratio was 6.828 . Unlike the Sharpe Ratio, this metric only measures the volatility of negative returns. A higher value, such as this one, suggests that during this test period, the strategy was highly efficient at managing downside volatility and large losing trades relative to the profits it generated.
Average Trade Duration: A critical characteristic to understand is the strategy's holding period. With an average of only 2 bars per trade , this configuration operates as a very short-term, or scalping-style, system. Winning trades averaged 2 bars, while losing trades averaged 4 bars. This indicates the strategy's logic is designed to capture quick, high-probability moves and exit rapidly, either at a profit target or a stop loss.
Conclusion and Final Disclaimer
This backtest demonstrates one specific application of the VoVix+ framework. It highlights the strategy's behavior as a short-term system that, in this historical test on NQ1!, exhibited a high win rate and effective management of downside risk. Users are strongly encouraged to conduct their own backtests on different instruments, timeframes, and date ranges to understand how the strategy adapts to varying market structures. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all trading involves significant risk.
🔧 THE DEVELOPMENT PHILOSOPHY: FROM VOLATILITY TO CLARITY
The journey to create VoVix+ began with a simple question: "What drives major market moves?" The answer is often not a change in price direction, but a fundamental shift in market volatility. Standard indicators are reactive to price. We wanted to create a system that was predictive of market state. VoVix+ was designed to go one level deeper—to analyze the behavior, character, and momentum of volatility itself.
The challenge was twofold. First, to create a robust mathematical model to quantify these abstract concepts. This led to the multi-layered analysis of ATR differentials and standard deviations. Second, to make this complex data intuitive and actionable. This drove the creation of the "Visual Universe," where abstract mathematical values are translated into geometric shapes, flows, and fields. The adaptive system was intentionally kept simple and transparent, focusing on a single, impactful parameter (time-based exits) to provide performance feedback without becoming an inscrutable "black box." The result is a tool that is both profoundly deep in its analysis and remarkably clear in its presentation.
⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER AND BEST PRACTICES
VoVix+ is an advanced analytical tool, not a guarantee of future profits. All financial markets carry inherent risk. The backtesting results shown by the strategy are historical and do not guarantee future performance. This strategy incorporates realistic commission and slippage settings by default, but market conditions can vary. Always practice sound risk management, use position sizes appropriate for your account equity, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. It is recommended to use this strategy as part of a comprehensive trading plan. This was developed specifically for Futures
"The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposite view. I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis."
— George Soros
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Multi-Confluence Swing Hunter V1# Multi-Confluence Swing Hunter V1 - Complete Description
Overview
The Multi-Confluence Swing Hunter V1 is a sophisticated low timeframe scalping strategy specifically optimized for MSTR (MicroStrategy) trading. This strategy employs a comprehensive point-based scoring system that combines optimized technical indicators, price action analysis, and reversal pattern recognition to generate precise trading signals on lower timeframes.
Performance Highlight:
In backtesting on MSTR 5-minute charts, this strategy has demonstrated over 200% profit performance, showcasing its effectiveness in capturing rapid price movements and volatility patterns unique to MicroStrategy's trading behavior.
The strategy's parameters have been fine-tuned for MSTR's unique volatility characteristics, though they can be optimized for other high-volatility instruments as well.
## Key Innovation & Originality
This strategy introduces a unique **dual scoring system** approach:
- **Entry Scoring**: Identifies swing bottoms using 13+ different technical criteria
- **Exit Scoring**: Identifies swing tops using inverse criteria for optimal exit timing
Unlike traditional strategies that rely on simple indicator crossovers, this system quantifies market conditions through a weighted scoring mechanism, providing objective, data-driven entry and exit decisions.
## Technical Foundation
### Optimized Indicator Parameters
The strategy utilizes extensively backtested parameters specifically optimized for MSTR's volatility patterns:
**MACD Configuration (3,10,3)**:
- Fast EMA: 3 periods (vs standard 12)
- Slow EMA: 10 periods (vs standard 26)
- Signal Line: 3 periods (vs standard 9)
- **Rationale**: These faster parameters provide earlier signal detection while maintaining reliability, particularly effective for MSTR's rapid price movements and high-frequency volatility
**RSI Configuration (21-period)**:
- Length: 21 periods (vs standard 14)
- Oversold: 30 level
- Extreme Oversold: 25 level
- **Rationale**: The 21-period RSI reduces false signals while still capturing oversold conditions effectively in MSTR's volatile environment
**Parameter Adaptability**: While optimized for MSTR, these parameters can be adjusted for other high-volatility instruments. Faster-moving stocks may benefit from even shorter MACD periods, while less volatile assets might require longer periods for optimal performance.
### Scoring System Methodology
**Entry Score Components (Minimum 13 points required)**:
1. **RSI Signals** (max 5 points):
- RSI < 30: +2 points
- RSI < 25: +2 points
- RSI turning up: +1 point
2. **MACD Signals** (max 8 points):
- MACD below zero: +1 point
- MACD turning up: +2 points
- MACD histogram improving: +2 points
- MACD bullish divergence: +3 points
3. **Price Action** (max 4 points):
- Long lower wick (>50%): +2 points
- Small body (<30%): +1 point
- Bullish close: +1 point
4. **Pattern Recognition** (max 8 points):
- RSI bullish divergence: +4 points
- Quick recovery pattern: +2 points
- Reversal confirmation: +4 points
**Exit Score Components (Minimum 13 points required)**:
Uses inverse criteria to identify swing tops with similar weighting system.
## Risk Management Features
### Position Sizing & Risk Control
- **Single Position Strategy**: 100% equity allocation per trade
- **No Overlapping Positions**: Ensures focused risk management
- **Configurable Risk/Reward**: Default 5:1 ratio optimized for volatile assets
### Stop Loss & Take Profit Logic
- **Dynamic Stop Loss**: Based on recent swing lows with configurable buffer
- **Risk-Based Take Profit**: Calculated using risk/reward ratio
- **Clean Exit Logic**: Prevents conflicting signals
## Default Settings Optimization
### Key Parameters (Optimized for MSTR/Bitcoin-style volatility):
- **Minimum Entry Score**: 13 (ensures high-conviction entries)
- **Minimum Exit Score**: 13 (prevents premature exits)
- **Risk/Reward Ratio**: 5.0 (accounts for volatility)
- **Lower Wick Threshold**: 50% (identifies true hammer patterns)
- **Divergence Lookback**: 8 bars (optimal for swing timeframes)
### Why These Defaults Work for MSTR:
1. **Higher Score Thresholds**: MSTR's volatility requires more confirmation
2. **5:1 Risk/Reward**: Compensates for wider stops needed in volatile markets
3. **Faster MACD**: Captures momentum shifts quickly in fast-moving stocks
4. **21-period RSI**: Reduces noise while maintaining sensitivity
## Visual Features
### Score Display System
- **Green Labels**: Entry scores ≥10 points (below bars)
- **Red Labels**: Exit scores ≥10 points (above bars)
- **Large Triangles**: Actual trade entries/exits
- **Small Triangles**: Reversal pattern confirmations
### Chart Cleanliness
- Indicators plotted in separate panes (MACD, RSI)
- TP/SL levels shown only during active positions
- Clear trade markers distinguish signals from actual trades
## Backtesting Specifications
### Realistic Trading Conditions
- **Commission**: 0.1% per trade
- **Slippage**: 3 points
- **Initial Capital**: $1,000
- **Account Type**: Cash (no margin)
### Sample Size Considerations
- Strategy designed for 100+ trade sample sizes
- Recommended timeframes: 4H, 1D for swing trading
- Optimal for trending/volatile markets
## Strategy Limitations & Considerations
### Market Conditions
- **Best Performance**: Trending markets with clear swings
- **Reduced Effectiveness**: Highly choppy, sideways markets
- **Volatility Dependency**: Optimized for moderate to high volatility assets
### Risk Warnings
- **High Allocation**: 100% position sizing increases risk
- **No Diversification**: Single position strategy
- **Backtesting Limitation**: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
## Usage Guidelines
### Recommended Assets & Timeframes
- **Primary Target**: MSTR (MicroStrategy) - 5min to 15min timeframes
- **Secondary Targets**: High-volatility stocks (TSLA, NVDA, COIN, etc.)
- **Crypto Markets**: Bitcoin, Ethereum (with parameter adjustments)
- **Timeframe Optimization**: 1min-15min for scalping, 30min-1H for swing scalping
### Timeframe Recommendations
- **Primary Scalping**: 5-minute and 15-minute charts
- **Active Monitoring**: 1-minute for precise entries
- **Swing Scalping**: 30-minute to 1-hour timeframes
- **Avoid**: Sub-1-minute (excessive noise) and above 4-hour (reduces scalping opportunities)
## Technical Requirements
- **Pine Script Version**: v6
- **Overlay**: Yes (plots on price chart)
- **Additional Panes**: MACD and RSI indicators
- **Real-time Compatibility**: Confirmed bar signals only
## Customization Options
All parameters are fully customizable through inputs:
- Indicator lengths and levels
- Scoring thresholds
- Risk management settings
- Visual display preferences
- Date range filtering
## Conclusion
This scalping strategy represents a comprehensive approach to low timeframe trading that combines multiple technical analysis methods into a cohesive, quantified system specifically optimized for MSTR's unique volatility characteristics. The optimized parameters and scoring methodology provide a systematic way to identify high-probability scalping setups while managing risk effectively in fast-moving markets.
The strategy's strength lies in its objective, multi-criteria approach that removes emotional decision-making from scalping while maintaining the flexibility to adapt to different instruments through parameter optimization. While designed for MSTR, the underlying methodology can be fine-tuned for other high-volatility assets across various markets.
**Important Disclaimer**: This strategy is designed for experienced scalpers and is optimized for MSTR trading. The high-frequency nature of scalping involves significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis, consider your risk tolerance, and be aware of commission/slippage costs that can significantly impact scalping profitability.
Arbitrage Spot-Futures Don++Strategy: Spot-Futures Arbitrage Don++
This strategy has been designed to detect and exploit arbitrage opportunities between the Spot and Futures markets of the same trading pair (e.g. BTC/USDT). The aim is to take advantage of price differences (spreads) between the two markets, while minimizing risk through dynamic position management.
[Operating principle
The strategy is based on calculating the spread between Spot and Futures prices. When this spread exceeds a certain threshold (positive or negative), reverse positions are opened simultaneously on both markets:
- i] Long Spot + Short Futures when the spread is positive.
- i] Short Spot + Long Futures when the spread is negative.
Positions are closed when the spread returns to a value close to zero or after a user-defined maximum duration.
[Strategy strengths
1. Adaptive thresholds :
- Entry/exit thresholds can be dynamic (based on moving averages and standard deviations) or fixed, offering greater flexibility to adapt to market conditions.
2. Robust data management :
- The script checks the validity of data before executing calculations, thus avoiding errors linked to missing or invalid data.
3. Risk limitation :
- A position size based on a percentage of available capital (default 10%) limits exposure.
- A time filter limits the maximum duration of positions to avoid losses due to persistent spreads.
4. Clear visualization :
- Charts include horizontal lines for entry/exit thresholds, as well as visual indicators for spread and Spot/Futures prices.
5. Alerts and logs :
- Alerts are triggered on entries and exits to inform the user in real time.
[Points for improvement or completion
Although this strategy is functional and robust, it still has a few limitations that could be addressed in future versions:
1. [Limited historical data :
- TradingView does not retrieve real-time data for multiple symbols simultaneously. This can limit the accuracy of calculations, especially under conditions of high volatility.
2. [Lack of liquidity management :
- The script does not take into account the volumes available on the order books. In conditions of low liquidity, it may be difficult to execute orders at the desired prices.
3. [Non-dynamic transaction costs :
- Transaction costs (exchange fees, slippage) are set manually. A dynamic integration of these costs via an external API would be more realistic.
4. User-dependency for symbols :
- Users must manually specify Spot and Futures symbols. Automatic symbol validation would be useful to avoid configuration errors.
5. Lack of advanced backtesting :
- Backtesting is based solely on historical data available on TradingView. An implementation with third-party data (via an API) would enable the strategy to be tested under more realistic conditions.
6. [Parameter optimization :
- Certain parameters (such as analysis period or spread thresholds) could be optimized for each specific trading pair.
[How can I contribute?
If you'd like to help improve this strategy, here are a few ideas:
1. Add additional filters:
- For example, a filter based on volume or volatility to avoid false signals.
2. Integrate dynamic costs:
- Use an external API to retrieve actual costs and adjust thresholds accordingly.
3. Improve position management:
- Implement hedging or scalping mechanisms to maximize profits.
4. Test on other pairs:
- Evaluate the strategy's performance on other assets (ETH, SOL, etc.) and adjust parameters accordingly.
5. Publish backtesting results :
- Share detailed analyses of the strategy's performance under different market conditions.
[Conclusion
This Spot-Futures arbitrage strategy is a powerful tool for exploiting price differentials between markets. Although it is already functional, it can still be improved to meet more complex trading scenarios. Feel free to test, modify and share your ideas to make this strategy even more effective!
[Thank you for contributing to this open-source community!
If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to comment or contact me directly.
Reversal & Breakout Strategy with ORB### Reversal & Breakout Strategy with ORB
This strategy combines three distinct trading approaches—reversals, trend breakouts, and opening range breakouts (ORB)—into a single, cohesive system. The goal is to capture high-probability setups across different market conditions, leveraging a mashup of technical indicators for confirmation and risk management. Below, I’ll explain why this combination works, how the components interact, and how to use it effectively.
#### Why the Mashup?
- **Reversals**: Identifies overextended moves using RSI (overbought/oversold) and SMA50 crosses, filtered by VWAP and SMA200 trend direction. This targets mean-reversion opportunities in trending markets.
- **Breakouts**: Uses EMA9/EMA20 crossovers with VWAP and SMA200 confirmation to catch momentum-driven trend continuations.
- **Opening Range Breakout (ORB)**: Detects early momentum by breaking the high/low of a user-defined opening range (default: 15 bars) with volume confirmation. This adds a time-based edge, ideal for intraday trading.
The synergy comes from blending these methods: reversals catch pullbacks, breakouts ride trends, and ORB exploits early volatility—all filtered by trend (SMA200) and anchored by VWAP for context.
#### How It Works
1. **Indicators**:
- **EMA9/EMA20**: Fast-moving averages for breakout signals.
- **SMA50**: Medium-term trend filter for reversals.
- **SMA200**: Long-term trend direction to align trades.
- **RSI (14)**: Measures overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) conditions.
- **VWAP**: Acts as a dynamic support/resistance level.
- **ATR (14)**: Sets stop-loss distance (default: 1.5x ATR).
- **Volume**: Confirms ORB breakouts (1.5x average volume of opening range).
2. **Entry Conditions**:
- **Long**: Triggers on reversal (SMA50 cross + RSI < 30 + below VWAP + uptrend), breakout (EMA9 > EMA20 + above VWAP + uptrend), or ORB (break above opening range high + volume).
- **Short**: Triggers on reversal (SMA50 cross + RSI > 70 + above VWAP + downtrend), breakout (EMA9 < EMA20 + below VWAP + downtrend), or ORB (break below opening range low + volume).
3. **Risk Management**:
- Risks 5% of equity per trade (based on the initial capital set in the strategy tester).
- Stop-loss: Based on lowest low/highest high over 7 bars ± 1.5x ATR.
- Targets: Two exits at 1:1 and 1:2 risk:reward (50% of position at each).
- Break-even: Stop moves to entry price after the first target is hit.
4. **Backtesting Settings**:
- Commission: Hardcoded at 0.1% per trade (realistic for most brokers).
- Slippage: Hardcoded at 2 ticks (realistic for most markets).
- Tested on datasets yielding 100+ trades (e.g., 2-min or 5-min charts over months).
#### How to Use It
- **Timeframe**: Works best on intraday (2-min, 5-min) or daily charts. Adjust `Opening Range Bars` (e.g., 15 bars = 30 min on 2-min chart) for your timeframe.
- **Settings**:
- Set your initial equity in the TradingView strategy tester’s "Properties" tab under "Initial Capital" (e.g., $10,000). The script automatically risks 5% of this equity per trade.
- Adjust `Stop Loss ATR Multiplier` or `Risk:Reward Targets` based on your risk tolerance.
- Note that commission (0.1%) and slippage (2 ticks) are fixed in the script for backtesting consistency.
- **Execution**: Enter on signal, monitor plotted stop (red) and targets (green/blue). The strategy supports pyramiding (up to 2 positions) for scaling into trends.
#### Backtesting Notes
Results are realistic with commission (0.1%) and slippage (2 ticks) included. For a sufficient sample, test on volatile instruments (e.g., stocks, forex) over 3-6 months on lower timeframes. The default 1.5x ATR stop may seem wide, but it’s justified to avoid premature exits in volatile markets—feel free to tweak it with justification. The script assumes an initial capital of $10,000 in the strategy tester for the 5% risk calculation (e.g., $500 risk per trade); adjust this in the "Properties" tab as needed.
This mashup isn’t just a random mix; it’s a deliberate fusion of complementary strategies, offering traders flexibility across market phases. Questions? Let me know!
Naive Bayes Candlestick Pattern Classifier v1.1 BETAAn intermezzo on why i made this script publication..
A : Candlestick Pattern took hours to backtest, why not using Machine Learning techniques?
B : Machine Learning, no that's gonna be really heavy bro!
A : Not really, because we use Naive Bayes.
B : The simplest, yet powerful machine learning algorithm to separate (a.k.a classify) multivariate data.
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Hello, everyone!
After deep research in extracting meaningful information from the market, I ended up building this powerful machine learning indicator based on the evolution of Bayesian Statistics. This indicator not only leverages the simplicity of Naive Bayes but also extends its application to candlestick pattern analysis, making it an invaluable tool for traders who are looking to enhance their technical analysis without spending countless hours manually backtesting each pattern on each market!.
What most interesting part is actually after learning all of likely useless methods like fibonacci, supply and demand, volume profile, etc. We always ended up back to basic like support and resistance and candlestick patterns, but with a slight twist on strategy algorithm design and statistical approach. Thus, the only reason why i made this, because i exactly know that you guys will ended up in this position as time goes by.
The essence of this indicator lies in its ability to automate the recognition and statistical evaluation of various candlestick patterns. Traditionally, traders have relied on visual inspection and manual backtesting to determine the effectiveness of patterns like Bullish Engulfing, Bearish Engulfing, Harami variations, Hammer formations, and even more complex multi-candle patterns such as Three White Soldiers, Three Black Crows, Dark Cloud Cover, and Piercing Pattern. However, these conventional methods are both time-consuming and prone to subjective bias.
To address these challenges, I employed Naive Bayes—a probabilistic classifier that, despite its simplicity, offers robust performance in various domains. Naive Bayes assumes that each feature is independent of the others given the class label, which, although a strong assumption, works remarkably well in practice, especially when the dataset is large like market data and the feature space is high-dimensional. In our case, each candlestick pattern acts as a feature that can be statistically evaluated based on its historical performance. The indicator calculates a probability that a given pattern will lead to a price reversal, by comparing the pattern’s close price to the highest or lowest price achieved in a lookahead window.
One of the standout features of this script is its flexibility. Each candlestick pattern is not only coded into the system but also comes with individual toggles to enable or disable them based on your trading strategy. This means you can choose to focus on single-candle patterns like Bullish Engulfing or more complex multi-candle formations such as Three White Soldiers, without modifying the core code. The built-in customization options allow you to adjust colors and labels for each pattern, giving you the freedom to tailor the visual output to your preference. This level of customization ensures that the indicator integrates seamlessly into your existing TradingView setup.
Moreover, the indicator isn’t just about pattern recognition—it also incorporates outcome-based learning. Every time a pattern is detected, it looks ahead a predefined number of bars to evaluate if the expected reversal actually materialized. This outcome is then stored in arrays, and over time, the script dynamically calculates the probability of success for each pattern. These probabilities are presented in a real-time updating table on your chart, which shows not only the percentage probability but also the count of historical occurrences. With this information at your fingertips, you can quickly gauge the reliability of each pattern in your chosen market and timeframe.
Another significant advantage of this approach is its speed and efficiency. While more complex machine learning models like neural networks might require heavy computational resources and longer training times, the Naive Bayes classifier in this script is lightweight, instantaneous and can be updated on the fly with each new bar. This real-time capability is essential for modern traders who need to make quick decisions in fast-paced markets.
Furthermore, by automating the process of backtesting, the indicator frees up your time to focus on other aspects of trading strategy development. Instead of manually analyzing hundreds or even thousands of candles, you can rely on the statistical power of Naive Bayes to provide you with insights on which patterns are most likely to result in profitable moves. This not only enhances your efficiency but also helps to eliminate the cognitive biases that often plague manual analysis.
In summary, this indicator represents a fusion of traditional candlestick analysis with modern machine learning techniques. It harnesses the simplicity and effectiveness of Naive Bayes to deliver a dynamic, real-time evaluation of various candlestick patterns. Whether you are a seasoned trader looking to refine your technical analysis or a beginner eager to understand market dynamics, this tool offers a powerful, customizable, and efficient solution. Welcome to a new era where advanced statistical methods meet practical trading insights—happy trading and may your patterns always be in your favor!
Note : On this current released beta version, you must manually adjust reversal percentage move based on each market. Further updates may include automated best range detection and probability.
Multi-indicator Signal Builder [Skyrexio]Overview
Multi-Indicator Signal Builder is a versatile, all-in-one script designed to streamline your trading workflow by combining multiple popular technical indicators under a single roof. It features a single-entry, single-exit logic, intrabar stop-loss/take-profit handling, an optional time filter, a visually accessible condition table, and a built-in statistics label. Traders can choose any combination of 12+ indicators (RSI, Ultimate Oscillator, Bollinger %B, Moving Averages, ADX, Stochastic, MACD, PSAR, MFI, CCI, Heikin Ashi, and a “TV Screener” placeholder) to form entry or exit conditions. This script aims to simplify strategy creation and analysis, making it a powerful toolkit for technical traders.
Indicators Overview
1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Measures recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions on a 0–100 scale.
2. Ultimate Oscillator (UO)
Uses weighted averages of three different timeframes, aiming to confirm price momentum while avoiding false divergences.
3. Bollinger %B
Expresses price relative to Bollinger Bands, indicating whether price is near the upper band (overbought) or lower band (oversold).
4. Moving Average (MA)
Smooths price data over a specified period. The script supports both SMA and EMA to help identify trend direction and potential crossovers.
5. ADX (Average Directional Index)
Gauges the strength of a trend (0–100). Higher ADX signals stronger momentum, while lower ADX indicates a weaker trend.
6. Stochastic
Compares a closing price to a price range over a given period to identify momentum shifts and potential reversals.
7. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence)
Tracks the difference between two EMAs plus a signal line, commonly used to spot momentum flips through crossovers.
8. PSAR (Parabolic SAR)
Plots a trailing stop-and-reverse dot that moves with the trend. Often used to signal potential reversals when price crosses PSAR.
9. MFI (Money Flow Index)
Similar to RSI but incorporates volume data. A reading above 80 can suggest overbought conditions, while below 20 may indicate oversold.
10. CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
Identifies cyclical trends or overbought/oversold levels by comparing current price to an average price over a set timeframe.
11. Heikin Ashi
A type of candlestick charting that filters out market noise. The script uses a streak-based approach (multiple consecutive bullish or bearish bars) to gauge mini-trends.
12. TV Screener
A placeholder condition designed to integrate external buy/sell logic (like a TradingView “Buy” or “Sell” rating). Users can override or reference external signals if desired.
Unique Features
1. Multi-Indicator Entry and Exit
You can selectively enable any subset of 12+ classic indicators, each with customizable parameters and conditions. A position opens only if all enabled entry conditions are met, and it closes only when all enabled exit conditions are satisfied, helping reduce false triggers.
2. Single-Entry / Single-Exit with Intrabar SL/TP
The script supports a single position at a time. Once a position is open, it monitors intrabar to see if the price hits your stop-loss or take-profit levels before the bar closes, making results more realistic for fast-moving markets.
3. Time Window Filter
Users may specify a start/end date range during which trades are allowed, making it convenient to focus on specific market cycles for backtesting or live trading.
4. Condition Table and Statistics
A table at the bottom of the chart lists all active entry/exit indicators. Upon each closed trade, an integrated statistics label displays net profit, total trades, win/loss count, average and median PnL, etc.
5. Seamless Alerts and Automation
Configure alerts in TradingView using “Any alert() function call.”
The script sends JSON alert messages you can route to your own webhook.
The indicator can be integrated with Skyrexio alert bots to automate execution on major cryptocurrency exchanges
6. Optional MA/PSAR Plots
For added visual clarity, optionally plot the chosen moving averages or PSAR on the chart to confirm signals without stacking multiple indicators.
Methodology
1. Multi-Indicator Entry Logic
When multiple entry indicators are enabled (e.g., RSI + Stochastic + MACD), the script requires all signals to align before generating an entry. Each indicator can be set for crossovers, crossunders, thresholds (above/below), etc. This “AND” logic aims to filter out low-confidence triggers.
2. Single-Entry Intrabar SL/TP
One Position At a Time: Once an entry signal triggers, a trade opens at the bar’s close.
Intrabar Checks: Stop-loss and take-profit levels (if enabled) are monitored on every tick. If either is reached, the position closes immediately, without waiting for the bar to end.
3. Exit Logic
All Conditions Must Agree: If the trade is still open (SL/TP not triggered), then all enabled exit indicators must confirm a closure before the script exits on the bar’s close.
4. Time Filter
Optional Trading Window: You can activate a date/time range to constrain entries and exits strictly to that interval.
Justification of Methodology
Indicator Confluence: Combining multiple tools (RSI, MACD, etc.) can reduce noise and false signals.
Intrabar SL/TP: Capturing real-time spikes or dips provides a more precise reflection of typical live trading scenarios.
Single-Entry Model: Straightforward for both manual and automated tracking (especially important in bridging to bots).
Custom Date Range: Helps refine backtesting for specific market conditions or to avoid known irregular data periods.
How to Use
1. Add the Script to Your Chart
In TradingView, open Indicators , search for “Multi-indicator Signal Builder”.
Click to add it to your chart.
2. Configure Inputs
Time Filter: Set a start and end date for trades.
Alerts Messages: Input any JSON or text payload needed by your external service or bot.
Entry Conditions: Enable and configure any indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) for a confluence-based entry.
Close Conditions: Enable exit indicators, along with optional SL (negative %) and TP (positive %) levels.
3. Set Up Alerts
In TradingView, select “Create Alert” → Condition = “Any alert() function call” → choose this script.
Entry Alert: Triggers on the script’s entry signal.
Close Alert: Triggers on the script’s close signal (or if SL/TP is hit).
Skyrexio Alert Bots: You can route these alerts via webhook to Skyrexio alert bots to automate order execution on major crypto exchanges (or any other supported broker).
4. Visual Reference
A condition table at the bottom summarizes active signals.
Statistics Label updates automatically as trades are closed, showing PnL stats and distribution metrics.
Backtesting Guidelines
Symbol/Timeframe: Works on multiple assets and timeframes; always do thorough testing.
Realistic Costs: Adjust commissions and potential slippage to match typical exchange conditions.
Risk Management: If using the built-in stop-loss/take-profit, set percentages that reflect your personal risk tolerance.
Longer Test Horizons: Verify performance across diverse market cycles to gauge reliability.
Example of statistic calculation
Test Period: 2023-01-01 to 2025-12-31
Initial Capital: $1,000
Commission: 0.1%, Slippage ~5 ticks
Trade Count: 468 (varies by strategy conditions)
Win rate: 76% (varies by strategy conditions)
Net Profit: +96.17% (varies by strategy conditions)
Disclaimer
This indicator is provided strictly for informational and educational purposes .
It does not constitute financial or trading advice.
Past performance never guarantees future results.
Always test thoroughly in demo environments before using real capital.
Enjoy exploring the Multi-Indicator Signal Builder! Experiment with different indicator combinations and adjust parameters to align with your trading preferences, whether you trade manually or link your alerts to external automation services. Happy trading and stay safe!
SPY/TLT Strategy█ STRATEGY OVERVIEW
The "SPY/TLT Strategy" is a trend-following crossover strategy designed to trade the relationship between TLT and its Simple Moving Average (SMA). The default configuration uses TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) with a 20-period SMA, entering long positions on bullish crossovers and exiting on bearish crossunders. **This strategy is NOT optimized and performs best in trending markets.**
█ KEY FEATURES
SMA Crossover System: Uses price/SMA relationship for signal generation (Default: 20-period)
Dynamic Time Window: Configurable backtesting period (Default: 2014-2099)
Equity-Based Position Sizing: Default 100% equity allocation per trade
Real-Time Visual Feedback: Price/SMA plot with trend-state background coloring
Event-Driven Execution: Processes orders at bar close for accurate backtesting
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY CONDITION
TLT closing price crosses ABOVE SMA
Occurs within specified time window
Generates market order at next bar open
2. EXIT CONDITION
TLT closing price crosses BELOW SMA
Closes all open positions immediately
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
SMA Period: Simple Moving Average length (Default: 20)
Start Time and End Time: The time window for trade execution (Default: 1 Jan 2014 - 1 Jan 2099)
Security Symbol: Ticker for analysis (Default: TLT)
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
Ideal Market Conditions: Strong trending environments
Potential Drawbacks: Whipsaws in range-bound markets
Backtesting results should be analyzed to optimize the MA Period and EMA Filter settings for specific instruments
CauchyTrend [InvestorUnknown]The CauchyTrend is an experimental tool that leverages a Cauchy-weighted moving average combined with a modified Supertrend calculation. This unique approach provides traders with insight into trend direction, while also offering an optional ATR-based range analysis to understand how often the market closes within, above, or below a defined volatility band.
Core Concepts
Cauchy Distribution and Gamma Parameter
The Cauchy distribution is a probability distribution known for its heavy tails and lack of a defined mean or variance. It is characterized by two parameters: a location parameter (x0, often 0 in our usage) and a scale parameter (γ, "gamma").
Gamma (γ): Determines the "width" or scale of the distribution. Smaller gamma values produce a distribution more concentrated near the center, giving more weight to recent data points, while larger gamma values spread the weight more evenly across the sample.
In this indicator, gamma influences how much emphasis is placed on values closer to the current price versus those further away in time. This makes the resulting weighted average either more reactive or smoother, depending on gamma’s value.
// Cauchy PDF formula used for weighting:
// f(x; γ) = (1/(π*γ)) *
f_cauchyPDF(offset, gamma) =>
numerator = gamma * gamma
denominator = (offset * offset) + (gamma * gamma)
pdf = (1 / (math.pi * gamma)) * (numerator / denominator)
pdf
A chart showing different Cauchy PDFs with various gamma values, illustrating how gamma affects the weight distribution.
Cauchy-Weighted Moving Average (CWMA)
Using the Cauchy PDF, we calculate normalized weights to create a custom Weighted Moving Average. Each bar in the lookback period receives a weight according to the Cauchy PDF. The result is a Cauchy Weighted Average (cwm_avg) that differs from typical moving averages, potentially offering unique sensitivity to price movements.
// Summation of weighted prices using Cauchy distribution weights
cwm_avg = 0.0
for i = 0 to length - 1
w_norm = array.get(weights, i) / sum_w
cwm_avg += array.get(values, i) * w_norm
Supertrend with a Cauchy Twist
The indicator integrates a modified Supertrend calculation using the cwm_avg as its reference point. The Supertrend logic typically sets upper and lower bands based on volatility (ATR), and flips direction when price crosses these bands.
In this case, the Cauchy-based average replaces the usual baseline, aiming to capture trend direction via a different weighting mechanism.
When price closes above the upper band, the trend is considered bullish; closing below the lower band signals a bearish trend.
ATR Stats Range (Optional)
Beyond the fundamental trend detection, the indicator optionally computes ATR-based stats to understand price distribution relative to a volatility corridor centered on the cwm_avg line:
Volatility Range:
Defined as cwm_avg ± (ATR * atr_mult), this range creates upper and lower bands. Turning on atr_stats computes how often the daily close falls: Within the range, Above the upper ATR boundary, Below the lower ATR boundary, Within the range but above cwm_avg, Within the range but below cwm_avg
These statistics can help traders gauge how the market behaves relative to this volatility envelope and possibly identify if the market tends to revert to the mean or break out more often.
Backtesting and Performance Metrics
The code is integrated with a backtesting library that allows users to assess strategy performance historically:
Equity Curve Calculation: Compares CauchyTrend-based signals against the underlying asset.
Performance Metrics Table: Once enabled, displays key metrics such as mean returns, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and more, comparing the strategy to a simple Buy & Hold approach.
Alerts and Notifications
The indicator provides Alerts for key events:
Long Alert: Triggered when the trend flips bullish.
Short Alert: Triggered when the trend flips bearish.
Customization and Calibration
Important: The default parameters are not optimized for any specific instrument or time frame. Traders should:
Adjust the length and gamma parameters to influence how sharply or broadly the cwm_avg reacts to price changes.
Tune the atr_len and atr_mult for the Supertrend logic to better match the asset’s volatility characteristics.
Experiment with atr_stats on/off to see if that additional volatility distribution information provides helpful insights.
Traders may find certain sets of parameters that align better with their preferred trading style, risk tolerance, or asset volatility profile.
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Past performance in backtesting does not guarantee future results. Always perform due diligence, and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before trading.
