Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve 2024The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve is a concept used to analyze Bitcoin's price movements over time. The idea is based on the observation that Bitcoin's price tends to grow exponentially, particularly during bull markets. It attempts to give a long-term perspective on the Bitcoin price movements.
The curve includes an upper and lower band. These bands often represent zones where Bitcoin's price is overextended (upper band) or undervalued (lower band) relative to its historical growth trajectory. When the price touches or exceeds the upper band, it may indicate a speculative bubble, while prices near the lower band may suggest a buying opportunity.
Unlike most Bitcoin growth curve indicators, this one includes a logarithmic growth curve optimized using the latest 2024 price data, making it, in our view, superior to previous models. Additionally, it features statistical confidence intervals derived from linear regression, compatible across all timeframes, and extrapolates the data far into the future. Finally, this model allows users the flexibility to manually adjust the function parameters to suit their preferences.
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve has the following function:
y = 10^(a * log10(x) - b)
In the context of this formula, the y value represents the Bitcoin price, while the x value corresponds to the time, specifically indicated by the weekly bar number on the chart.
How is it made (You can skip this section if you’re not a fan of math):
To optimize the fit of this function and determine the optimal values of a and b, the previous weekly cycle peak values were analyzed. The corresponding x and y values were recorded as follows:
113, 18.55
240, 1004.42
451, 19128.27
655, 65502.47
The same process was applied to the bear market low values:
103, 2.48
267, 211.03
471, 3192.87
676, 16255.15
Next, these values were converted to their linear form by applying the base-10 logarithm. This transformation allows the function to be expressed in a linear state: y = a * x − b. This step is essential for enabling linear regression on these values.
For the cycle peak (x,y) values:
2.053, 1.268
2.380, 3.002
2.654, 4.282
2.816, 4.816
And for the bear market low (x,y) values:
2.013, 0.394
2.427, 2.324
2.673, 3.504
2.830, 4.211
Next, linear regression was performed on both these datasets. (Numerous tools are available online for linear regression calculations, making manual computations unnecessary).
Linear regression is a method used to find a straight line that best represents the relationship between two variables. It looks at how changes in one variable affect another and tries to predict values based on that relationship.
The goal is to minimize the differences between the actual data points and the points predicted by the line. Essentially, it aims to optimize for the highest R-Square value.
Below are the results:
It is important to note that both the slope (a-value) and the y-intercept (b-value) have associated standard errors. These standard errors can be used to calculate confidence intervals by multiplying them by the t-values (two degrees of freedom) from the linear regression.
These t-values can be found in a t-distribution table. For the top cycle confidence intervals, we used t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), and t33% (0.414). For the bottom cycle confidence intervals, the t-values used were t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), t33% (0.414), t50% (0.765), and t67% (1.063).
The final bull cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.058 ± 0.133 * log10(x) – 6.44 ± 0.324)
The final bear cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.684 ± 0.025 * log10(x) – -9.034 ± 0.063)
The main Criticisms of growth curve models:
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve model faces several general criticisms that we’d like to highlight briefly. The most significant, in our view, is its heavy reliance on past price data, which may not accurately forecast future trends. For instance, previous growth curve models from 2020 on TradingView were overly optimistic in predicting the last cycle’s peak.
This is why we aimed to present our process for deriving the final functions in a transparent, step-by-step scientific manner, including statistical confidence intervals. It's important to note that the bull cycle function is less reliable than the bear cycle function, as the top band is significantly wider than the bottom band.
Even so, we still believe that the Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve presented in this script is overly optimistic since it goes parly against the concept of diminishing returns which we discussed in this post:
This is why we also propose alternative parameter settings that align more closely with the theory of diminishing returns.
Our recommendations:
Drawing on the concept of diminishing returns, we propose alternative settings for this model that we believe provide a more realistic forecast aligned with this theory. The adjusted parameters apply only to the top band: a-value: 3.637 ± 0.2343 and b-parameter: -5.369 ± 0.6264. However, please note that these values are highly subjective, and you should be aware of the model's limitations.
Conservative bull cycle model:
y = 10^(3.637 ± 0.2343 * log10(x) - 5.369 ± 0.6264)
Parabolic
Grid Bot Parabolic [xxattaxx]🟩 The Grid Bot Parabolic, a continuation of the Grid Bot Simulator Series , enhances traditional gridbot theory by employing a dynamic parabolic curve to visualize potential support and resistance levels. This adaptability is particularly useful in volatile or trending markets, enabling traders to explore grid-based strategies and gain deeper market insights. The grids are divided into customizable trade zones that trigger signals as prices move into new zones, empowering traders to gain deeper insights into market dynamics and potential turning points.
While traditional grid bots excel in ranging markets, the Grid Bot Parabolic’s introduction of acceleration and curvature adds new dimensions, enabling its use in trending markets as well. It can function as a traditional grid bot with horizontal lines, a tilted grid bot with linear slopes, or a fully parabolic grid with curves. This dynamic nature allows the indicator to adapt to various market conditions, providing traders with a versatile tool for visualizing dynamic support and resistance levels.
🔑 KEY FEATURES 🔑
Adaptable Grid Structures (Horizontal, Linear, Curved)
Buy and Sell Signals with Multiple Trigger/Confirmation Conditions
Secondary Buy and Secondary Sell Signals
Projected Grid Lines
Customizable Grid Spacing and Zones
Acceleration and Curvature Control
Sensitivity Adjustments
📐 GRID STRUCTURES 📐
Beyond its core parabolic functionality, the Parabolic Grid Bot offers a range of grid configurations to suit different market conditions and trading preferences. By adjusting the "Acceleration" and "Curvature" parameters, you can transform the grid's structure:
Parabolic Grids
Setting both acceleration and curvature to non-zero values results in a parabolic grid.This configuration can be particularly useful for visualizing potential turning points and trend reversals. Example: Accel = 10, Curve = -10)
Linear Grids
With a non-zero acceleration and zero curvature, the grid tilts to represent a linear trend, aiding in identifying potential support and resistance levels during trending phases. Example: Accel =1.75, Curve = 0
Horizontal Grids
When both acceleration and curvature are set to zero, the indicator reverts to a traditional grid bot with horizontal lines, suitable for ranging markets. Example: Accel=0, Curve=0
⚙️ INITIAL SETUP ⚙️
1.Adding the Indicator to Your Chart
Locate a Starting Point: To begin, visually identify a price point on your chart where you want the grid to start.This point will anchor your grid.
2. Setting Up the Grid
Add the Grid Bot Parabolic Indicator to your chart. A “Start Time/Price” dialog will appear
CLICK on the chart at your chosen start point. This will anchor the start point and open a "Confirm Inputs" dialog box.
3. Configure Settings. In the dialog box, you can set the following:
Acceleration: Adjust how quickly the grid reacts to price changes.
Curve: Define the shape of the parabola.
Intervals: Determine the distance between grid levels.
If you choose to keep the default settings, with acceleration set to 0 and curve set to 0, the grid will display as traditional horizontal lines. The grid will align with your selected price point, and you can adjust the settings at any time through the indicator’s settings panel.
⚙️ CONFIGURATION AND SETTINGS ⚙️
Grid Settings
Accel (Acceleration): Controls how quickly the price reacts to changes over time.
Curve (Curvature): Defines the overall shape of the parabola.
Intervals (Grid Spacing): Determines the vertical spacing between the grid lines.
Sensitivity: Fine tunes the magnitude of Acceleration and Curve.
Buy Zones & Sell Zones: Define the number of grid levels used for potential buy and sell signals.
* Each zone is represented on the chart with different colors:
* Green: Buy Zones
* Red: Sell Zones
* Yellow: Overlap (Buy and Sell Zones intersect)
* Gray: Neutral areas
Trigger: Chooses which part of the candlestick is used to trigger a signal.
* `Wick`: Uses the high or low of the candlestick
* `Close`: Uses the closing price of the candlestick
* `Midpoint`: Uses the middle point between the high and low of the candlestick
* `SWMA`: Uses the Symmetrical Weighted Moving Average
Confirm: Specifies how a signal is confirmed.
* `Reverse`: The signal is confirmed if the price moves in the opposite direction of the initial trigger
* `Touch`: The signal is confirmed when the price touches the specified level or zone
Sentiment: Determines the market sentiment, which can influence signal generation.
* `Slope`: Sentiment is based on the direction of the curve, reflecting the current trend
* `Long`: Sentiment is bullish, favoring buy signals
* `Short`: Sentiment is bearish, favoring sell signals
* `Neutral`: Sentiment is neutral. No secondary signals will be generated
Show Signals: Toggles the display of buy and sell signals on the chart
Chart Settings
Grid Colors: These colors define the visual appearance of the grid lines
Projected: These colors define the visual appearance of the projected lines
Parabola/SWMA: Adjust colors as needed. These are disabled by default.
Time/Price
Start Time & Start Price: These set the starting point for the parabolic curve.
* These fields are automatically populated when you add the indicator to the chart and click on an initial location
* These can be adjusted manually in the settings panel, but he easiest way to change these is by directly interacting with the start point on the chart
Please note: Time and Price must be adjusted for each chart when switching assets. For example, a Start Price on BTCUSD of $60,000 will not work on an ETHUSD chart.
🤖 ALGORITHM AND CALCULATION 🤖
The Parabolic Function
At the core of the Parabolic Grid Bot lies the parabolic function, which calculates a dynamic curve that adapts to price action over time. This curve serves as the foundation for visualizing potential support and resistance levels.
The shape and behavior of the parabola are influenced by three key user-defined parameters:
Acceleration: This parameter controls the rate of change of the curve's slope, influencing its tilt or steepness. A higher acceleration value results in a more pronounced tilt, while a lower value leads to a gentler slope. This applies to both curved and linear grid configurations.
Curvature: This parameter introduces and controls the curvature or bend of the grid. A higher curvature value results in a more pronounced parabolic shape, while a lower value leads to a flatter curve or even a straight line (when set to zero).
Sensitivity: This setting fine-tunes the overall responsiveness of the grid, influencing how strongly the Acceleration and Curvature parameters affect its shape. Increasing sensitivity amplifies the impact of these parameters, making the grid more adaptable to price changes but potentially leading to more frequent adjustments. Decreasing sensitivity reduces their impact, resulting in a more stable grid structure with fewer adjustments. It may be necessary to adjust Sensitivity when switching between different assets or timeframes to ensure optimal scaling and responsiveness.
The parabolic function combines these parameters to generate a curve that visually represents the potential path of price movement. By understanding how these inputs influence the parabola's shape and behavior, traders can gain valuable insights into potential support and resistance areas, aiding in their decision-making process.
Sentiment
The Parabolic Grid Bot incorporates sentiment to enhance signal generation. The "Sentiment" input allows you to either:
Manually specify the market sentiment: Choose between 'Long' (bullish), 'Short' (bearish), or 'Neutral'.
Let the script determine sentiment based on the slope of the parabolic curve: If 'Slope' is selected, the sentiment will be considered 'Long' when the curve is sloping upwards, 'Short' when it's sloping downwards, and 'Neutral' when it's flat.
Buy and Sell Signals
The Parabolic Grid Bot generates buy and sell signals based on the interaction between the price and the grid levels.
Trigger: The "Trigger" input determines which part of the candlestick is used to trigger a signal (wick, close, midpoint, or SWMA).
Confirmation: The "Confirm" input specifies how a signal is confirmed ('Reverse' or 'Touch').
Zones: The number of "Buy Zones" and "Sell Zones" determines the areas on the grid where buy and sell signals can be generated.
When the trigger condition is met within a buy zone and the confirmation criteria are satisfied, a buy signal is generated. Similarly, a sell signal is generated when the trigger and confirmation occur within a sell zone.
Secondary Signals
Secondary signals are generated when a regular buy or sell signal contradicts the prevailing sentiment. For example:
A buy signal in a bearish market (Sentiment = 'Short') would be considered a "secondary buy" signal.
A sell signal in a bullish market (Sentiment = 'Long') would be considered a "secondary sell" signal.
These secondary signals are visually represented on the chart using hollow triangles, differentiating them from regular signals (filled triangles).
While they can be interpreted as potential contrarian trade opportunities, secondary signals can also serve other purposes within a grid trading strategy:
Exit Signals: A secondary signal can suggest a potential shift in market sentiment or a weakening trend. This could be a cue to consider exiting an existing position, even if it's currently profitable, to lock in gains before a potential reversal
Risk Management: In a strong trend, secondary signals might offer opportunities for cautious counter-trend trades with controlled risk. These trades could utilize smaller position sizes or tighter stop-losses to manage potential downside if the main trend continues
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): During a prolonged trend, the parabolic curve might generate multiple secondary signals in the opposite direction. These signals could be used to implement a DCA strategy, gradually accumulating a position at potentially favorable prices as the market retraces or consolidates within the larger trend
Secondary signals should be interpreted with caution and considered in conjunction with other technical indicators and market context. They provide additional insights into potential market reversals or consolidation phases within a broader trend, aiding in adapting your grid trading strategy to the evolving market dynamics.
Examples
Trigger=Wick, Confirm=Touch. Signals are generated when the wick touches the next gridline.
Trigger=Close, Confirm=Touch. Signals require the close to touch the next gridline.
Trigger=SWMA, Confirm=Reverse. Signals are triggered when the Symmetrically Weighted Moving Average reverse crosses the next gridline.
🧠THEORY AND RATIONALE 🧠
The innovative approach of the Parabolic Grid Bot can be better understood by first examining the limitations of traditional grid trading strategies and exploring how this indicator addresses them by incorporating principles of market cycles and dynamic price behavior
Traditional Grid Bots: One-Dimensional and Static
Traditional grid bots operate on a simple premise: they divide the price chart into a series of equally spaced horizontal lines, creating a grid of trading zones. These bots excel in ranging markets where prices oscillate within a defined range. Buy and sell orders are placed at these grid levels, aiming to profit from mean reversion as prices bounce between the support and resistance zones.
However, traditional grid bots face challenges in trending markets. As the market moves in one direction, the bot continues to place orders in that direction, leading to a stacking of positions. If the market eventually reverses, these stacked trades can be profitable, amplifying gains. But the risk lies in the potential for the market to continue trending, leaving the trader with a series of losing trades on the wrong side of the market
The Parabolic Grid Bot: Adding Dimensions
The Parabolic Grid Bot addresses the limitations of traditional grid bots by introducing two additional dimensions:
Acceleration (Second Dimension): This parameter introduces a second dimension to the grid, allowing it to tilt upwards or downwards to align with the prevailing market trend. A positive acceleration creates an upward-sloping grid, suitable for uptrends, while a negative acceleration results in a downward-sloping grid, ideal for downtrends. The magnitude of acceleration controls the steepness of the tilt, enabling you to fine-tune the grid's responsiveness to the trend's strength
Curvature (Third Dimension): This parameter adds a third dimension to the grid by introducing a parabolic curve. The curve's shape, ranging from gentle bends to sharp turns, is controlled by the curvature value. This flexibility allows the grid to closely mirror the market's evolving structure, potentially identifying turning points and trend reversals.
Mean Reversion in Trending Markets
Even in trending markets, the Parabolic Grid Bot can help identify opportunities for mean reversion strategies. While the grid may be tilted to reflect the trend, the buy and sell zones can capture short-term price oscillations or consolidations within the broader trend. This allows traders to potentially pinpoint entry and exit points based on temporary pullbacks or reversals.
Visualize and Adapt
The Parabolic Grid Bot acts as a visual aid, enhancing your understanding of market dynamics. It allows you to "see the curve" by adapting the grid to the market's patterns. If the market shows a parabolic shape, like an upward curve followed by a peak and a downward turn (similar to a head and shoulders pattern), adjust the Accel and Curve to match. This highlights potential areas of interest for further analysis.
Beyond Straight Lines: Visualizing Market Cycle
Traditional technical analysis often employs straight lines, such as trend lines and support/resistance levels, to interpret market movements. However, many analysts, including Brian Millard, contend that these lines can be misleading. They propose that what might appear as a straight line could represent just a small part of a larger curve or cycle that's not fully visible on the chart.
Markets are inherently cyclical, marked by phases of expansion, contraction, and reversal. The Parabolic Grid Bot acknowledges this cyclical behavior by offering a dynamic, curved grid that adapts to these shifts. This approach helps traders move beyond the limitations of straight lines and visualize potential support and resistance levels in a way that better reflects the market's true nature
By capturing these cyclical patterns, whether subtle or pronounced, the Parabolic Grid Bot offers a nuanced understanding of market dynamics, potentially leading to more accurate interpretations of price action and informed trading decisions.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER⚠️
This indicator utilizes a parabolic curve fitting approach to visualize potential support and resistance levels. The mathematical formulas employed have been designed with adaptability and scalability in mind, aiming to accommodate various assets and price ranges. While the resulting curves may visually resemble parabolas, it's important to note that they might not strictly adhere to the precise mathematical definition of a parabola.
The indicator's calculations have been tested and generally produce reliable results. However, no guarantees are made regarding their absolute mathematical accuracy. Traders are encouraged to use this tool as part of their broader analysis and decision-making process, combining it with other technical indicators and market context.
Please remember that trading involves inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It is always advisable to conduct your own research and exercise prudent risk management before making any trading decisions.
🧠 BEYOND THE CODE 🧠
The Parabolic Grid Bot, like the other grid bots in this series, is designed with education and community collaboration in mind. Its open-source nature encourages exploration, experimentation, and the development of new grid trading strategies. We hope this indicator serves as a framework and a starting point for future innovations in the field of grid trading.
Your comments, suggestions, and discussions are invaluable in shaping the future of this project. We welcome your feedback and look forward to seeing how you utilize and enhance the Parabolic Grid Bot.
Nebula SAR Echo📈 Overview:
The "Nebula SAR Echo" is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed for traders seeking enhanced trend detection. This indicator combines the robust Parabolic SAR mechanism with gradient color coding to provide clear visual insights into market trends.
🎯 Key Features:
Advanced Parabolic SAR Calculation:
Utilizes dynamic coefficients for more responsive and accurate trend detection.
Highlights trend reversals with visual markers for immediate identification.
Gradient Color Coding:
Gradient colors dynamically reflect the strength and direction of the trend.
Bullish trends are represented in shades of green, while bearish trends are shown in shades of red.
User-Friendly Customization:
Easily adjustable parameters for acceleration factors and gradient color use.
💡 Benefits:
Enhanced Decision Making:
Combines real-time trend analysis to assist traders in making more informed decisions.
Visual Clarity:
Clear visual markers and gradient color coding simplify the interpretation of market trends.
Helps traders quickly identify key turning points and potential future price paths.
🔍 Use Cases:
Trend Identification:
Ideal for identifying ongoing trends and potential reversals in various market conditions.
Useful for both short-term trading strategies and long-term investment planning.
Risk Management:
Gradient color coding aids in assessing trend strength and potential volatility.
Traders can set more precise stop-loss and take-profit levels based on the trend strength.
⚙️ How to Use:
1. Parameter Setup:
Set the desired acceleration factors (start, increment, and max) for the Parabolic SAR.
Enable or disable gradient colors based on personal preference.
2. Interpretation:
Use the SAR values and gradient colors to gauge current market trends.
3. Alerts:
Set up alert conditions for bullish and bearish reversals to stay notified of significant market changes.
🔹 Conclusion:
The "Nebula SAR Echo" is a versatile and powerful tool for traders who require an in-depth analysis of market trends. By leveraging the advanced Parabolic SAR calculation and gradient color coding, this indicator provides a comprehensive view of market conditions, making it an indispensable addition to any trader's toolkit.
2 Moving Averages | Trend FollowingThe trading system is a trend-following strategy based on two moving averages (MA) and Parabolic SAR (PSAR) indicators.
How it works:
The strategy uses two moving averages: a fast MA and a slow MA.
It checks for a bullish trend when the fast MA is above the slow MA and the current price is above the fast MA.
It checks for a bearish trend when the fast MA is below the slow MA and the current price is below the fast MA.
The Parabolic SAR (PSAR) indicator is used for additional trend confirmation.
Long and short positions can be turned on or off based on user input.
The strategy incorporates risk management with stop-loss orders based on the Average True Range (ATR).
Users can filter the backtest date range and display various indicators.
The strategy is designed to work with the date range filter, risk management, and user-defined positions.
Features:
Trend-following strategy.
Two customizable moving averages.
Parabolic SAR for trend confirmation.
User-defined risk management with stop-loss based on ATR.
Backtest date range filter.
Flexibility to enable or disable long and short positions.
This trading system provides a comprehensive approach to trend-following and risk management, making it suitable for traders looking to capture trends with controlled risk.
Parabolic SAR + EMA 200 + MACD SignalsParabolic SAR + EMA 200 + MACD Signals Indicator, a powerful tool designed to help traders identify optimal entry points in the market.
This indicator combines three popular technical indicators: Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse), EMA200 (Exponential Moving Average 200) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) - to provide clear and concise buy and sell signals based on market trends.
The MACD component of this indicator calculates the difference between two exponentially smoothed moving averages, providing insight into the trend strength of the market. The Parabolic SAR component helps identify potential price reversals, while the EMA200 acts as a key level of support and resistance, providing additional confirmation of the overall trend direction.
Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, the MACD-Parabolic SAR-EMA200 Indicator is a must-have tool for anyone looking to improve their trading strategy and maximize profits in today's dynamic markets.
Buy conditions
The price should be above the EMA 200
Parabolic SAR should show an upward trend
MACD Delta should be positive
ُSell conditions
The price should be below the EMA 200
Parabolic SAR should show an downward trend
MACD Delta should be negative
Interactive SAR Stop-Loss [TANHEF]This indicator is "Interactive" which means some inputs can are manually added through the first click after adding the indicator to the chart (SAR Trailing Stop-loss start point).
Unlike the normal Parabolic SAR, this indicator allows for the modification of the start point of the Parabolic SAR’s first bar calculation. Normally, the Parabolic SAR automatically has a start point after the first bar of an asset’s historical price that will then switch between trailing above and below price respectively. It must be noted that due to how the first position of the Parabolic SAR is calculated, on occasion the Parabolic SAR will immediately flip on the next bar to the opposite side relative to price that it was just located. Modifying the setting “⭐Initial Interactive SAR Position Source”, then selecting either 'Clicked' or 'ATR' level as the vertical start position will prevent this. See images below for more explanation.
Why use a trailing stop-loss?
A trailing stop-loss provides an exit when price moves against you but also enables you to move the exit point further into profit when price is moving in the desired direction of a trade. The Parabolic SAR ( stop and reverse ) which is used to determine price direction as well as when price direction is changing, is very effective at functioning as a trailing stop loss.
Indicator Explanation
Initially when this indicator is added to the chart, you will be prompted to select where to begin the SAR Trailing Stop-loss.
For a long stop-loss, select below price.
For a short stop-loss, select above price.
After this indicator is placed, it can be modified via dragging or from within the settings by modifying the time and the price input. Or simply re-add the indicator to the chart. Another option is to have this Parabolic SAR begin directly on the price that was initially ‘Clicked’ or the ‘ATR’ level, which requires selecting the option in settings labeled “⭐Initial Interactive SAR Position Source”
The SAR Stop Loss plotted. Note that the calculation that occurs on this first bar of the ‘Interactive SAR’ is as if the prior bar was the oldest historical bar of the asset. Due to the SAR’s calculations, if the ‘Normal SAR’ were to also flip sides over to the position that has been manually set for the ‘Interactive SAR’, they won’t necessarily have the same result.
An optional fixed profit target can be added within the settings. This profit target will only actively be plotted when the SAR Trailing Stop-loss has not be hit yet or until the profit target has been hit.
Here shows that the profit target was hit, then later on the SAR Trailing Stop-loss was hit.
Note, trailing stop-loss will continue to be plotted until it has been hit regardless of the profit target being hit or not.
Here is an example of when the Parabolic SAR will immediately flip on the next bar to the opposite side relative to price that it was just first located. This is due to how the Parabolic SAR is calculated and will also occur with the traditional Parabolic SAR that is not interactively (manually) given a start location. To prevent this, either relocate this time in which this SAR beings or consider modifying the SAR’s (start, increment, max) settings specifically.
Here instead of using the SAR’s calculation for an initial bar, the ‘ATR’ was selected as the start point within the setting “⭐Initial Interactive SAR Position Source”.
Alerts
1. 'Check' alerts to use within indicator settings (trailing stop hit and/or profit target hit).
2. Select 'Create Alert'
3. Set the condition to 'Interactive SAR''
4. Select create.
Adaptive Parabolic SAR (APSAR) - [MYN]We took the code that we wrote in Myth Busting Strategy #6 to make it more profitable, specifically the timeframe adaptive Parabolic SAR logic and published this as a separate indicator to make it easier for others to use and adopt.
There really is no magic to this. This indicator basically just evaluates the timeframe and derives a multiplier that is applied to the PSAR Max attribute.
QQE of Parabolic-Weighted Velocity [Loxx]QQE of Parabolic-Weighted Velocity is a QQE indicator that takes as its input parabolic-weighted velocity calculation. This version can help in determining trend. Adjust the calculating period to your trading style: longer - to trend traders, shorter - for scalping.
What is Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE)?
The Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) indicator works like a smoother version of the popular Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) indicator. QQE expands on RSI by adding two volatility based trailing stop lines. These trailing stop lines are composed of a fast and a slow moving Average True Range (ATR).
There are many indicators for many purposes. Some of them are complex and some are comparatively easy to handle. The QQE indicator is a really useful analytical tool and one of the most accurate indicators. It offers numerous strategies for using the buy and sell signals. Essentially, it can help detect trend reversal and enter the trade at the most optimal positions.
Included:
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Alerts
Signals
Bar coloring
Parabolic SAR Oscillator [LuxAlgo]This indicator is a detrended price series using the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) trailing stop, resulting in a bounded oscillator in the range (-100, 100). The SAR output is also normalized to obtain a noiseless oscillator which can complement the detrended price.
Settings
Start: Initial value of the convergence factor used when a new trend is detected by the SAR
Increment: Increment value of the convergence factor
Maximum: Maximum value of the convergence factor
Usage
The price is detrended by subtracting the closing price to the SAR, this result is then normalized.
An up-trending market is indicated once the normalized SAR reaches -100, while a value of 100 indicates a down-trending market. One can anticipate trends when the normalized SAR crosses above/under 0.
The converging nature of the SAR trailing stop allows for the trader to obtain a very apparent leading oscillator.
Parabolic sar with breaksThis plots a Parabolic sar and a break line on the previous sar point before the parabolic sar flips.
This is looking to be a very popular entry signal for lots of strats.
How to use:
In conjunction with other confirmation indicators;
Long : Enter long when the Parabolic sar is below the price and the price breaks above (and closes) the break line.
Short : Enter short when the Parabolic sar is above the price and the price breaks below (and closes) the break line.
A great indicator combination for this is to use a 200 ema for price trend and volume flow.
Trend MasterThis is a trend aggregator for confirmation and trend signals. It basically aggregates many buy/sell signals and confirmation and by combining them provides a strong buy/sell signal or trend confirmation.
The actual layout idea and trend confirmation is derived from Trend Meter and this indicator uses few other indicator, such as Chandelier Exit, WaveTrend, QQE Signals, Parabolic SAR and AlphaTrend. This indicator aggregates signal from different methods to find out more powerful and confirmed Trend and combines them into one Signal. It also uses Technical Ratings from TradingView team to filter out false signal, it tremendously opts out false signals and improve profitability.
The first seven dots are these
All 3 Trend Meters Now Align
MACD Crossover - Fast - 8, 21, 5
RSI 13: > or < 50
RSI 5: > or < 50
MA Crossover
MA Crossover
Chaikin Money Flow
Alphatrend
Technical Ratings
Then trend
Chandelier Exit
WaveTrend
QQE Signals
Parabolic Sar
All 3 Trend Meters aligns and A signal from trend i
Instructions
Change buy/sell policy based on market trend
Works on all TimeFrame but gives more accuracy on 4H, 1D.
Buy when green big dot appears at the bottom.
Sell when red big dot appears at the bottom.
Red/green dot at the top line appears when three trend meter is aligned and this is a good confirmation.
Any red/green dot below horizontal bars are trend signals.
Big red/green got at the bottom appears whenever there's a good confirmation from trend meter and a buy/sell signal comes from any trend signals.
Also look on the technical ratings bar, green means buy, red means sell and yellow means neutral.
Look for Support or Resistance Levels for price to be attracted to.
Find confluence with other indicators.
The more Trend meters are lit up the better.
Alert
01 Buy Signal = Strong Buy Signal
02 Sell Signal = Strong Sell Signal
03 Buy Signal = Strong Buy Signal
04 Sell Signal = Strong Sell Signal
Thanks to TradingView Technical Ratings authors, evergot, Lij_MC, KivancOzbilgic for their work. This indicator was heavily inspired from their work.
TradePro Parabolic SAR BackgroundTradePro Parabolic SAR Background
This indicator is a small tribute to youtuber TradePro
The operation is simple. It is the same Parabolic SAR indicator with its default configuration, but in background format. It is a new way to visualize the same information, more understandably. It is in itself a complete trading system, it can be used in conjunction with the traditional Parabolic SAR to locate the stop loss.
Parabolic SAR
In stock and securities market technical analysis, parabolic SAR (parabolic stop and reverse) is a method devised by J. Welles Wilder, Jr., to find potential reversals in the market price direction of traded goods such as securities or currency exchanges such as forex. It is a trend-following (lagging) indicator and may be used to set a trailing stop loss or determine entry or exit points based on prices tending to stay within a parabolic curve during a strong trend.
Similar to option theory's concept of time decay, the concept draws on the idea that "time is the enemy". Thus, unless a security can continue to generate more profits over time, it should be liquidated. The indicator generally works only in trending markets, and creates "whipsaws" during ranging or, sideways phases. Therefore, Wilder recommends first establishing the direction or change in direction of the trend through the use of parabolic SAR, and then using a different indicator such as the Average Directional Index to determine the strength of the trend.
A parabola below the price is generally bullish, while a parabola above is generally bearish. A parabola below the price may be used as support, whereas a parabola above the price may represent resistance.
polynomic_stopA strategy with a trailing stop in the form of a polynomial function. The entry is made at the intersection of a simple sliding closing candle. At the moment of entering the position, it is fixed by the value of the Minimum for the period. After entering the position, a trailing stop of the form is activated: Min + D * N^a, where Min is the minimum for the period fixed at the time of entering the position, D is the decrement, N is the number of bars in the position and a is the degree of the polynomial. At the moment when the trailing stop crosses the candle closing from the bottom up , the transaction is closed. The degree of a polynomial can be taken as integers and fractional numbers
ParabxotThis indicator is a modified Parabolic SAR (Stop And Reverse) created by Dennis Meyers in 2001 in order to avoid the typical whipsaws produced in ranging, non-trending markets. Parabxot does not reverse unless the price penetrates the previous SAR level by a specified amount. Also it increases (decreases) the initial distance of the SAR level by adding (substracting) a predefined percentage amount to the Parabolic starting value.
The thresholds can be adjusted using the following parameters:
xo controls the percentage amount added or substracted to the last Parabolic SAR value in order to allow a change in direction in the indicator.
xpr defines how much should be added to the previous highest high (in case of a bearish reversal) or substracted to the previous lowest low (in case of a bullish reversal), expressed as a percentage of price.
Setting xo and/or xpr to zero disables the filters and the indicator behaves as the original Parabolic SAR.
Reference
Meyers, Dennis (2001), The Improved Parabolic + Noise Filter System
Parabolic SAR (MTF)This is a multi-timeframe Parabolic SAR indicator which uses 1 and 4 hour charts.
Using this indicator is simple, if the LifeTime line is green then buy, if red then sell OR don't trade. So...
Green Line - This strategy is in a buy position
Red Line - This strategy is in a sell position
Any other colour - DON'T TRADE
The traders approach is simple, when all indicators are green or red, then take the trade. As soon as one indicator changes, then re-evaluate using your normal process, such as price action, to determine whether to close the trade or continue.
If you require any further information or script modifications, please message me.
PLEASE CHECK OUT MY OTHER SCRIPTS
Supertrend (MTF) & Parabolic SAROne of my mixed approach strategy indicators which includes:
- Parabolic SAR
- 1 Hour Supertrend
- 4 Hour Supertrend
Whilst this script may appear slow due to the 4hr Supertrend, it does a great job of managing breakouts.
Using this indicator is simple, if the line labeled Lifetime is green then buy, if red then sell OR don't trade. So...
Green Line - This strategy is in a buy position
Red Line - This strategy is in a sell position
Any other Color - DON'T TRADE
The traders approach is simple, when all indicators are green or red, then take the trade. As soon as one indicator changes, then re-evaluate using your normal process, such as price action, to determine whether to close the trade or continue.
If you require any further information or script modifications, please message me.
PLEASE CHECK OUT MY OTHER SCRIPTS
Multi StrategyDuring the course of a trade, we can find ourselves changing strategies depending on the market. Instead of using many different templates, I have a simple indicator that clearly says "Buy", "Sell" or "Stay Out". The great thing about this approach, is we instantly observe the majority are in agreement and that decides which way to place our trade.
This indicator includes the following strategies:
- QQE
- Ichimoku using much faster settings.
- Parabolic SAR
- Supertrend
- TTM Oscillator
- The Squeeze strategy
- The Alligator Strategy
Using this indicator is simple, if the lines are mainly green then buy, if mainly red then sell OR don't trade. So...
Green Line - This strategy is in a buy position
Orange or Black Line - This strategy is undecided
Red Line - This strategy is in a sell position
There are also some green and red circles for reference that appear showing when that bar has broken through the Ichimoku cloud.
The trader's approach is simple, when all indicators are green or red, then take the trade. As soon as one indicator changes, then re-evaluate using your normal process, such as price action, to determine whether to close the trade or continue.
I can customise this further or add other strategies, please message me.
QuantNomad - Heikin-Ashi PSAR AlertsUsing this script you can create alerts for my Heikin-Ashi PSAR Strategy:
When creating alerts use "Once Per Bar Close" in parameters.
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Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
QuantNomad - Heikin-Ashi PSAR StrategyContinue experimenting with different combinations of strategies.
Here is the PSAR Strategy calculated based on HA candles. HA is already calculated inside the script, do not apply it to HA candles.
Strategy is calculated based on 25% equity invested with 0.1% commission.
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Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
ATR Parabolic SAR Strategy [QuantNomad]I created a version of Parabolic SAR when I accelerate it not based on the difference from the extreme point but based on current ATR. So the idea is that for a more volatile market it should move faster.
Performance is calculated based on 25% equity invested and 0.1% commission.
What do you think about it? Does it make sense to do something like that?
Do you have in mind other ways I can accelerate it when the market starts to be more volatile?
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
Combination Parabolic MA/IIR/ALMA Strategy, and other goodies Okay, so this is a lot. It started mostly with me combining indicators and looking for ideal entry criteria.
It is also a collection of conditions, whether used or unused, for my current chosen "best" strategy. It is currently set how I like it, but it has changed with time, and will continue to do so. Within, there are variables that are unused, but offer some insight into the overall odds of a trade. They were, in fact, once used but fell out of favor. And all details for this strategy are within the comment header of the script.
As this evolves, I most certainly wont keep any future findings and hope for profit from my peers (yinz). Also, I'd like to give a sincere thanks to the people of TV for what I learned in a few month's time and their flexible membership plans. Basically, I'm just a mad scientist, but this monster's a masterpiece and folks here before me made many indirect contributions to it.
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Okay guys, lastly and most importantly,
Each smack of the like button is a vote of your confidence in me, to my beautiful landladies, Celeste and Adele, that my rent will be caught up and that it won't always be a problem. Which, in my mind, makes me a graph. And they've got strong hands and don't sell the low. I more than respect that. Seriously. And I'm very grateful for their willingness to work with me, but the thing is that I didn't ask first; life just happens. But few are tolerant of others. And quite importantly, I truly believe that I will be successful one day, and that "thumbs-up" button is your vote of confidence. If you're not sure, then don't hit it yet. Maybe my scripts will boost your confidence in me :)
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PS: And you know what? I'ma give a shout-out to Philakone for teaching me everything that I know about Elliot Wave . Absolutely. Two years ago, I would keep telling myself that one day I will put something in his gratuity wallet or pursue the paid courses. And, I still plan on it, because I'm grateful. And so also, to everybody else, I'm recommending him to learn from. because as a trader who might not know everything for free, you can certainly fill in the gaps with his altruistic offerings. And I'm betting that you will then feel more than inclined to buy the Udemy course.
"If wave 2 retraces a lot; number 4 will not". Repetition. Philakone didn't fix my memory but he sure did find a workaround, haha
Okay, everyone, Thanks!
Parabolic SAR Alerts (on close) [QuantNomad]This is study with alerts for my previously published strategy:
Use "Once Per Bar Close" alerts.
Parabolic SAR Strategy (on close) [QuantNomad]Created a Parabolic SAR strategy where price has to close under/above the level before for it to reverse. This way it should be a bit more stable and protect you from false breakouts.
It was impossible to adjust the built-in "sar" function so I implemented PSAR from scratch. So if you're interested in how it's work inside you can check the code and probably adjust to your need if you have a custom modification of PSAR in your mind.
