Generalized Black-Scholes-Merton w/ Analytical Greeks [Loxx]Generalized Black-Scholes-Merton w/ Analytical Greeks is an adaptation of the Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing Model including Analytical Greeks and implied volatility calculations. The following information is an excerpt from Espen Gaarder Haug's book "Option Pricing Formulas". The options sensitivities (Greeks) are the partial derivatives of the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) formula. Analytical Greeks for our purposes here are broken down into various categories:
Delta Greeks: Delta, DDeltaDvol, Elasticity
Gamma Greeks: Gamma, GammaP, DGammaDSpot/speed, DGammaDvol/Zomma
Vega Greeks: Vega, DVegaDvol/Vomma, VegaP
Theta Greeks: Theta
Rate/Carry Greeks: Rho, Rho futures option, Carry Rho, Phi/Rho2
Probability Greeks: StrikeDelta, Risk Neutral Density
(See the code for more details)
Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing
The BSM formula and its binomial counterpart may easily be the most used "probability model/tool" in everyday use — even if we con- sider all other scientific disciplines. Literally tens of thousands of people, including traders, market makers, and salespeople, use option formulas several times a day. Hardly any other area has seen such dramatic growth as the options and derivatives businesses. In this chapter we look at the various versions of the basic option formula. In 1997 Myron Scholes and Robert Merton were awarded the Nobel Prize (The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel). Unfortunately, Fischer Black died of cancer in 1995 before he also would have received the prize.
It is worth mentioning that it was not the option formula itself that Myron Scholes and Robert Merton were awarded the Nobel Prize for, the formula was actually already invented, but rather for the way they derived it — the replicating portfolio argument, continuous- time dynamic delta hedging, as well as making the formula consistent with the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The continuous dynamic replication argument is unfortunately far from robust. The popularity among traders for using option formulas heavily relies on hedging options with options and on the top of this dynamic delta hedging, see Higgins (1902), Nelson (1904), Mello and Neuhaus (1998), Derman and Taleb (2005), as well as Haug (2006) for more details on this topic. In any case, this book is about option formulas and not so much about how to derive them.
Provided here are the various versions of the Black-Scholes-Merton formula presented in the literature. All formulas in this section are originally derived based on the underlying asset S follows a geometric Brownian motion
dS = mu * S * dt + v * S * dz
where t is the expected instantaneous rate of return on the underlying asset, a is the instantaneous volatility of the rate of return, and dz is a Wiener process.
The formula derived by Black and Scholes (1973) can be used to value a European option on a stock that does not pay dividends before the option's expiration date. Letting c and p denote the price of European call and put options, respectively, the formula states that
c = S * N(d1) - X * e^(-r * T) * N(d2)
p = X * e^(-r * T) * N(d2) - S * N(d1)
where
d1 = (log(S / X) + (r + v^2 / 2) * T) / (v * T^0.5)
d2 = (log(S / X) + (r - v^2 / 2) * T) / (v * T^0.5) = d1 - v * T^0.5
Inputs
S = Stock price.
X = Strike price of option.
T = Time to expiration in years.
r = Risk-free rate
b = Cost of carry
v = Volatility of the underlying asset price
cnd (x) = The cumulative normal distribution function
nd(x) = The standard normal density function
convertingToCCRate(r, cmp ) = Rate compounder
gImpliedVolatilityNR(string CallPutFlag, float S, float x, float T, float r, float b, float cm , float epsilon) = Implied volatility via Newton Raphson
gBlackScholesImpVolBisection(string CallPutFlag, float S, float x, float T, float r, float b, float cm ) = implied volatility via bisection
Implied Volatility: The Bisection Method
The Newton-Raphson method requires knowledge of the partial derivative of the option pricing formula with respect to volatility ( vega ) when searching for the implied volatility . For some options (exotic and American options in particular), vega is not known analytically. The bisection method is an even simpler method to estimate implied volatility when vega is unknown. The bisection method requires two initial volatility estimates (seed values):
1. A "low" estimate of the implied volatility , al, corresponding to an option value, CL
2. A "high" volatility estimate, aH, corresponding to an option value, CH
The option market price, Cm , lies between CL and cH . The bisection estimate is given as the linear interpolation between the two estimates:
v(i + 1) = v(L) + (c(m) - c(L)) * (v(H) - v(L)) / (c(H) - c(L))
Replace v(L) with v(i + 1) if c(v(i + 1)) < c(m), or else replace v(H) with v(i + 1) if c(v(i + 1)) > c(m) until |c(m) - c(v(i + 1))| <= E, at which point v(i + 1) is the implied volatility and E is the desired degree of accuracy.
Implied Volatility: Newton-Raphson Method
The Newton-Raphson method is an efficient way to find the implied volatility of an option contract. It is nothing more than a simple iteration technique for solving one-dimensional nonlinear equations (any introductory textbook in calculus will offer an intuitive explanation). The method seldom uses more than two to three iterations before it converges to the implied volatility . Let
v(i + 1) = v(i) + (c(v(i)) - c(m)) / (dc / dv (i))
until |c(m) - c(v(i + 1))| <= E at which point v(i + 1) is the implied volatility , E is the desired degree of accuracy, c(m) is the market price of the option, and dc/ dv (i) is the vega of the option evaluaated at v(i) (the sensitivity of the option value for a small change in volatility ).
Things to know
Only works on the daily timeframe and for the current source price.
You can adjust the text size to fit the screen
히스토리컬 볼래틸리티
Generalized Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing Formula [Loxx]Generalized Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing Formula is an adaptation of the Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing Model including Numerical Greeks aka "Option Sensitivities" and implied volatility calculations. The following information is an excerpt from Espen Gaarder Haug's book "Option Pricing Formulas".
Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing
The BSM formula and its binomial counterpart may easily be the most used "probability model/tool" in everyday use — even if we con- sider all other scientific disciplines. Literally tens of thousands of people, including traders, market makers, and salespeople, use option formulas several times a day. Hardly any other area has seen such dramatic growth as the options and derivatives businesses. In this chapter we look at the various versions of the basic option formula. In 1997 Myron Scholes and Robert Merton were awarded the Nobel Prize (The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel). Unfortunately, Fischer Black died of cancer in 1995 before he also would have received the prize.
It is worth mentioning that it was not the option formula itself that Myron Scholes and Robert Merton were awarded the Nobel Prize for, the formula was actually already invented, but rather for the way they derived it — the replicating portfolio argument, continuous- time dynamic delta hedging, as well as making the formula consistent with the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The continuous dynamic replication argument is unfortunately far from robust. The popularity among traders for using option formulas heavily relies on hedging options with options and on the top of this dynamic delta hedging, see Higgins (1902), Nelson (1904), Mello and Neuhaus (1998), Derman and Taleb (2005), as well as Haug (2006) for more details on this topic. In any case, this book is about option formulas and not so much about how to derive them.
Provided here are the various versions of the Black-Scholes-Merton formula presented in the literature. All formulas in this section are originally derived based on the underlying asset S follows a geometric Brownian motion
dS = mu * S * dt + v * S * dz
where t is the expected instantaneous rate of return on the underlying asset, a is the instantaneous volatility of the rate of return, and dz is a Wiener process.
The formula derived by Black and Scholes (1973) can be used to value a European option on a stock that does not pay dividends before the option's expiration date. Letting c and p denote the price of European call and put options, respectively, the formula states that
c = S * N(d1) - X * e^(-r * T) * N(d2)
p = X * e^(-r * T) * N(d2) - S * N(d1)
where
d1 = (log(S / X) + (r + v^2 / 2) * T) / (v * T^0.5)
d2 = (log(S / X) + (r - v^2 / 2) * T) / (v * T^0.5) = d1 - v * T^0.5
Inputs
S = Stock price.
X = Strike price of option.
T = Time to expiration in years.
r = Risk-free rate
b = Cost of carry
v = Volatility of the underlying asset price
cnd (x) = The cumulative normal distribution function
nd(x) = The standard normal density function
convertingToCCRate(r, cmp ) = Rate compounder
gImpliedVolatilityNR(string CallPutFlag, float S, float x, float T, float r, float b, float cm, float epsilon) = Implied volatility via Newton Raphson
gBlackScholesImpVolBisection(string CallPutFlag, float S, float x, float T, float r, float b, float cm) = implied volatility via bisection
Implied Volatility: The Bisection Method
The Newton-Raphson method requires knowledge of the partial derivative of the option pricing formula with respect to volatility (vega) when searching for the implied volatility. For some options (exotic and American options in particular), vega is not known analytically. The bisection method is an even simpler method to estimate implied volatility when vega is unknown. The bisection method requires two initial volatility estimates (seed values):
1. A "low" estimate of the implied volatility, al, corresponding to an option value, CL
2. A "high" volatility estimate, aH, corresponding to an option value, CH
The option market price, Cm, lies between CL and cH. The bisection estimate is given as the linear interpolation between the two estimates:
v(i + 1) = v(L) + (c(m) - c(L)) * (v(H) - v(L)) / (c(H) - c(L))
Replace v(L) with v(i + 1) if c(v(i + 1)) < c(m), or else replace v(H) with v(i + 1) if c(v(i + 1)) > c(m) until |c(m) - c(v(i + 1))| <= E, at which point v(i + 1) is the implied volatility and E is the desired degree of accuracy.
Implied Volatility: Newton-Raphson Method
The Newton-Raphson method is an efficient way to find the implied volatility of an option contract. It is nothing more than a simple iteration technique for solving one-dimensional nonlinear equations (any introductory textbook in calculus will offer an intuitive explanation). The method seldom uses more than two to three iterations before it converges to the implied volatility. Let
v(i + 1) = v(i) + (c(v(i)) - c(m)) / (dc / dv(i))
until |c(m) - c(v(i + 1))| <= E at which point v(i + 1) is the implied volatility, E is the desired degree of accuracy, c(m) is the market price of the option, and dc/dv(i) is the vega of the option evaluaated at v(i) (the sensitivity of the option value for a small change in volatility).
Numerical Greeks or Greeks by Finite Difference
Analytical Greeks are the standard approach to estimating Delta, Gamma etc... That is what we typically use when we can derive from closed form solutions. Normally, these are well-defined and available in text books. Previously, we relied on closed form solutions for the call or put formulae differentiated with respect to the Black Scholes parameters. When Greeks formulae are difficult to develop or tease out, we can alternatively employ numerical Greeks - sometimes referred to finite difference approximations. A key advantage of numerical Greeks relates to their estimation independent of deriving mathematical Greeks. This could be important when we examine American options where there may not technically exist an exact closed form solution that is straightforward to work with. (via VinegarHill FinanceLabs)
Things to know
Only works on the daily timeframe and for the current source price.
You can adjust the text size to fit the screen
Sprenkle 1964 Option Pricing Model w/ Num. Greeks [Loxx]Sprenkle 1964 Option Pricing Model w/ Num. Greeks is an adaptation of the Sprenkle 1964 Option Pricing Model in Pine Script. The following information is an except from Espen Gaarder Haug's book "Option Pricing Formulas".
The Sprenkle Model
Sprenkle (1964) assumed the stock price was log-normally distributed and thus that the asset price followed a geometric Brownian motion, just as in the Black and Scholes (1973) analysis. In this way he ruled out the possibility of negative stock prices, consistent with limited liability. Sprenkle moreover allowed for a drift in the asset price, thus allowing positive interest rates and risk aversion (Smith, 1976). Sprenkle assumed today's value was equal to the expected value at maturity.
c = S * e^(rho*T) * N(d1) - (1 - k) * X * N(d2)
d1 = (log(S/X) + (rho + v^2 / 2) * T) / (v * T^0.5)
d2 = d1 - (v * T^0.5)
Inputs
S = Stock price.
X = Strike price of option.
T = Time to expiration in years.
r = Risk-free rate
v = Volatility of the underlying asset price
k = Market risk aversion adjustment
rho = Average growth rate share
cnd (x) = The cumulative normal distribution function
nd(x) = The standard normal density function
nd(x) = The standard normal density function
convertingToCCRate(r, cmp) = Rate compounder
Numerical Greeks or Greeks by Finite Difference
Analytical Greeks are the standard approach to estimating Delta, Gamma etc... That is what we typically use when we can derive from closed form solutions. Normally, these are well-defined and available in text books. Previously, we relied on closed form solutions for the call or put formulae differentiated with respect to the Black Scholes parameters. When Greeks formulae are difficult to develop or tease out, we can alternatively employ numerical Greeks - sometimes referred to finite difference approximations. A key advantage of numerical Greeks relates to their estimation independent of deriving mathematical Greeks. This could be important when we examine American options where there may not technically exist an exact closed form solution that is straightforward to work with. (via VinegarHill FinanceLabs)
Things to know
Only works on the daily timeframe and for the current source price.
You can adjust the text size to fit the screen
Modified Bachelier Option Pricing Model w/ Num. Greeks [Loxx]Modified Bachelier Option Pricing Model w/ Num. Greeks is an adaptation of the Modified Bachelier Option Pricing Model in Pine Script. The following information is an except from Espen Gaarder Haug's book "Option Pricing Formulas".
Before Black Scholes Merton
The curious reader may be asking how people priced options before the BSM breakthrough was published in 1973. This section offers a quick overview of some of the most important precursors to the BSM model. As early as 1900, Louis Bachelier published his now famous work on option pricing. In contrast to Black, Scholes, and Merton, Bachelier assumed a normal distribution for the asset price—in other words, an arithmetic Brownian motion process:
dS = sigma * dz
Where S is the asset price and dz is a Wiener process. This implies a positive probability for observing a negative asset price—a feature that is not popular for stocks and any other asset with limited liability features.
The current call price is the expected price at expiration. This argument yields:
c = (S - X)*N(d1) + v * T^0.5 * n(d1)
and for a put option we get
p = (S - X)*N(-d1) + v * T^0.5 * n(d1)
where
d1 = (S - X) / (v * T^0.5)
Modified Bachelier Model
By using the arguments of BSM but now with arithmetic Brownian motion (normal distributed stock price), we can easily correct the Bachelier model to take into account the time value of money in a risk-neutral world. This yields:
c = S * N(d1) - Xe^-rT * N(d1) + v * T^0.5 * n(d1)
p = Xe^-rT * N(-d1) - S * N(-d1) + v * T^0.5 * n(d1)
d1 = (S - X) / (v * T^0.5)
Inputs
S = Stock price.
X = Strike price of option.
T = Time to expiration in years.
r = Risk-free rate
v = Volatility of the underlying asset price
cnd (x) = The cumulative normal distribution function
nd(x) = The standard normal density function
Numerical Greeks or Greeks by Finite Difference
Analytical Greeks are the standard approach to estimating Delta, Gamma etc... That is what we typically use when we can derive from closed form solutions. Normally, these are well-defined and available in text books. Previously, we relied on closed form solutions for the call or put formulae differentiated with respect to the Black Scholes parameters. When Greeks formulae are difficult to develop or tease out, we can alternatively employ numerical Greeks - sometimes referred to finite difference approximations. A key advantage of numerical Greeks relates to their estimation independent of deriving mathematical Greeks. This could be important when we examine American options where there may not technically exist an exact closed form solution that is straightforward to work with. (via VinegarHill FinanceLabs)
Things to know
Volatility for this model is price, so dollars or whatever currency you're using. Historical volatility is also reported in currency.
There is no dividend adjustment input
Only works on the daily timeframe and for the current source price.
Bachelier 1900 Option Pricing Model w/ Numerical Greeks [Loxx]Bachelier 1900 Option Pricing Model w/ Numerical Greeks is an adaptation of the Bachelier 1900 Option Pricing Model in Pine Script. The following information is an except from Espen Gaarder Haug's book "Option Pricing Formulas"
Before Black Scholes Merton
The curious reader may be asking how people priced options before the BSM breakthrough was published in 1973. This section offers a quick overview of some of the most important precursors to the BSM model. As early as 1900, Louis Bachelier published his now famous work on option pricing. In contrast to Black, Scholes, and Merton, Bachelier assumed a normal distribution for the asset price—in other words, an arithmetic Brownian motion process:
dS = sigma * dz
Where S is the asset price and dz is a Wiener process. This implies a positive probability for observing a negative asset price—a feature that is not popular for stocks and any other asset with limited liability features.
The current call price is the expected price at expiration. This argument yields:
c = (S - X)*N(d1) + v * T^0.5 * n(d1)
and for a put option we get
p = (S - X)*N(-d1) + v * T^0.5 * n(d1)
where
d1 = (S - X) / (v * T^0.5)
Inputs
S = Stock price.
X = Strike price of option.
T = Time to expiration in years.
v = Volatility of the underlying asset price
cnd(x) = The cumulative normal distribution function
nd(x) = The standard normal density function
Numerical Greeks or Greeks by Finite Difference
Analytical Greeks are the standard approach to estimating Delta, Gamma etc... That is what we typically use when we can derive from closed form solutions. Normally, these are well-defined and available in text books. Previously, we relied on closed form solutions for the call or put formulae differentiated with respect to the Black Scholes parameters. When Greeks formulae are difficult to develop or tease out, we can alternatively employ numerical Greeks - sometimes referred to finite difference approximations. A key advantage of numerical Greeks relates to their estimation independent of deriving mathematical Greeks. This could be important when we examine American options where there may not technically exist an exact closed form solution that is straightforward to work with. ( via VinegarHill FinanceLabs )
Things to know
Volatility for this model is price, so dollars or whatever currency you're using. Historical volatility is also reported in currency.
There is no risk-free rate input
There is no dividend adjustment input
Black Scholes Option Pricing Model w/ Greeks [Loxx]The Black Scholes Merton model
If you are new to options I strongly advise you to profit from Robert Shiller's lecture on same . It combines practical market insights with a strong authoritative grasp of key models in option theory. He explains many of the areas covered below and in the following pages with a lot intuition and relatable anecdotage. We start here with Black Scholes Merton which is probably the most popular option pricing framework, due largely to its simplicity and ease in terms of implementation. The closed-form solution is efficient in terms of speed and always compares favorably relative to any numerical technique. The Black–Scholes–Merton model is a mathematical go-to model for estimating the value of European calls and puts. In the early 1970’s, Myron Scholes, and Fisher Black made an important breakthrough in the pricing of complex financial instruments. Robert Merton simultaneously was working on the same problem and applied the term Black-Scholes model to describe new generation of pricing. The Black Scholes (1973) contribution developed insights originally proposed by Bachelier 70 years before. In 1997, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton received the Nobel Prize for Economics. Tragically, Fisher Black died in 1995. The Black–Scholes formula presents a theoretical estimate (or model estimate) of the price of European-style options independently of the risk of the underlying security. Future payoffs from options can be discounted using the risk-neutral rate. Earlier academic work on options (e.g., Malkiel and Quandt 1968, 1969) had contemplated using either empirical, econometric analyses or elaborate theoretical models that possessed parameters whose values could not be calibrated directly. In contrast, Black, Scholes, and Merton’s parameters were at their core simple and did not involve references to utility or to the shifting risk appetite of investors. Below, we present a standard type formula, where: c = Call option value, p = Put option value, S=Current stock (or other underlying) price, K or X=Strike price, r=Risk-free interest rate, q = dividend yield, T=Time to maturity and N denotes taking the normal cumulative probability. b = (r - q) = cost of carry. (via VinegarHill-Financelab )
Things to know
This can only be used on the daily timeframe
You must select the option type and the greeks you wish to show
This indicator is a work in process, functions may be updated in the future. I will also be adding additional greeks as I code them or they become available in finance literature. This indictor contains 18 greeks. Many more will be added later.
Inputs
Spot price: select from 33 different types of price inputs
Calculation Steps: how many iterations to be used in the BS model. In practice, this number would be anywhere from 5000 to 15000, for our purposes here, this is limited to 300
Strike Price: the strike price of the option you're wishing to model
% Implied Volatility: here you can manually enter implied volatility
Historical Volatility Period: the input period for historical volatility ; historical volatility isn't used in the BS process, this is to serve as a sort of benchmark for the implied volatility ,
Historical Volatility Type: choose from various types of implied volatility , search my indicators for details on each of these
Option Base Currency: this is to calculate the risk-free rate, this is used if you wish to automatically calculate the risk-free rate instead of using the manual input. this uses the 10 year bold yield of the corresponding country
% Manual Risk-free Rate: here you can manually enter the risk-free rate
Use manual input for Risk-free Rate? : choose manual or automatic for risk-free rate
% Manual Yearly Dividend Yield: here you can manually enter the yearly dividend yield
Adjust for Dividends?: choose if you even want to use use dividends
Automatically Calculate Yearly Dividend Yield? choose if you want to use automatic vs manual dividend yield calculation
Time Now Type: choose how you want to calculate time right now, see the tool tip
Days in Year: choose how many days in the year, 365 for all days, 252 for trading days, etc
Hours Per Day: how many hours per day? 24, 8 working hours, or 6.5 trading hours
Expiry date settings: here you can specify the exact time the option expires
The Black Scholes Greeks
The Option Greek formulae express the change in the option price with respect to a parameter change taking as fixed all the other inputs. ( Haug explores multiple parameter changes at once .) One significant use of Greek measures is to calibrate risk exposure. A market-making financial institution with a portfolio of options, for instance, would want a snap shot of its exposure to asset price, interest rates, dividend fluctuations. It would try to establish impacts of volatility and time decay. In the formulae below, the Greeks merely evaluate change to only one input at a time. In reality, we might expect a conflagration of changes in interest rates and stock prices etc. (via VigengarHill-Financelab )
First-order Greeks
Delta: Delta measures the rate of change of the theoretical option value with respect to changes in the underlying asset's price. Delta is the first derivative of the value
Vega: Vegameasures sensitivity to volatility. Vega is the derivative of the option value with respect to the volatility of the underlying asset.
Theta: Theta measures the sensitivity of the value of the derivative to the passage of time (see Option time value): the "time decay."
Rho: Rho measures sensitivity to the interest rate: it is the derivative of the option value with respect to the risk free interest rate (for the relevant outstanding term).
Lambda: Lambda, Omega, or elasticity is the percentage change in option value per percentage change in the underlying price, a measure of leverage, sometimes called gearing.
Epsilon: Epsilon, also known as psi, is the percentage change in option value per percentage change in the underlying dividend yield, a measure of the dividend risk. The dividend yield impact is in practice determined using a 10% increase in those yields. Obviously, this sensitivity can only be applied to derivative instruments of equity products.
Second-order Greeks
Gamma: Measures the rate of change in the delta with respect to changes in the underlying price. Gamma is the second derivative of the value function with respect to the underlying price.
Vanna: Vanna, also referred to as DvegaDspot and DdeltaDvol, is a second order derivative of the option value, once to the underlying spot price and once to volatility. It is mathematically equivalent to DdeltaDvol, the sensitivity of the option delta with respect to change in volatility; or alternatively, the partial of vega with respect to the underlying instrument's price. Vanna can be a useful sensitivity to monitor when maintaining a delta- or vega-hedged portfolio as vanna will help the trader to anticipate changes to the effectiveness of a delta-hedge as volatility changes or the effectiveness of a vega-hedge against change in the underlying spot price.
Charm: Charm or delta decay measures the instantaneous rate of change of delta over the passage of time.
Vomma: Vomma, volga, vega convexity, or DvegaDvol measures second order sensitivity to volatility. Vomma is the second derivative of the option value with respect to the volatility, or, stated another way, vomma measures the rate of change to vega as volatility changes.
Veta: Veta or DvegaDtime measures the rate of change in the vega with respect to the passage of time. Veta is the second derivative of the value function; once to volatility and once to time.
Vera: Vera (sometimes rhova) measures the rate of change in rho with respect to volatility. Vera is the second derivative of the value function; once to volatility and once to interest rate.
Third-order Greeks
Speed: Speed measures the rate of change in Gamma with respect to changes in the underlying price.
Zomma: Zomma measures the rate of change of gamma with respect to changes in volatility.
Color: Color, gamma decay or DgammaDtime measures the rate of change of gamma over the passage of time.
Ultima: Ultima measures the sensitivity of the option vomma with respect to change in volatility.
Dual Delta: Dual Delta determines how the option price changes in relation to the change in the option strike price; it is the first derivative of the option price relative to the option strike price
Dual Gamma: Dual Gamma determines by how much the coefficient will changedual delta when the option strike price changes; it is the second derivative of the option price relative to the option strike price.
Related Indicators
Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Binomial Tree Options Pricing Model
Implied Volatility Estimator using Black Scholes
Boyle Trinomial Options Pricing Model
Boyle Trinomial Options Pricing Model [Loxx]Boyle Trinomial Options Pricing Model is an options pricing indicator that builds an N-order trinomial tree to price American and European options. This is different form the Binomial model in that the Binomial assumes prices can only go up and down wheres the Trinomial model assumes prices can go up, down, or sideways (shoutout to the "crab" market enjoyers). This method also allows for dividend adjustment.
The Trinomial Tree via VinegarHill Finance Labs
A two-jump process for the asset price over each discrete time step was developed in the binomial lattice. Boyle expanded this frame of reference and explored the feasibility of option valuation by allowing for an extra jump in the stochastic process. In keeping with Black Scholes, Boyle examined an asset (S) with a lognormal distribution of returns. Over a small time interval, this distribution can be approximated by a three-point jump process in such a way that the expected return on the asset is the riskless rate, and the variance of the discrete distribution is equal to the variance of the corresponding lognormal distribution. The three point jump process was introduced by Phelim Boyle (1986) as a trinomial tree to price options and the effect has been momentous in the finance literature. Perhaps shamrock mythology or the well-known ballad associated with Brendan Behan inspired the Boyle insight to include a third jump in lattice valuation. His trinomial paper has spawned a huge amount of ground breaking research. In the trinomial model, the asset price S is assumed to jump uS or mS or dS after one time period (dt = T/n), where u > m > d. Joshi (2008) point out that the trinomial model is characterized by the following five parameters: (1) the probability of an up move pu, (2) the probability of an down move pd, (3) the multiplier on the stock price for an up move u, (4) the multiplier on the stock price for a middle move m, (5) the multiplier on the stock price for a down move d. A recombining tree is computationally more efficient so we require:
ud = m*m
M = exp (r∆t),
V = exp (σ 2∆t),
dt or ∆t = T/N
where where N is the total number of steps of a trinomial tree. For a tree to be risk-neutral, the mean and variance across each time steps must be asymptotically correct. Boyle (1986) chose the parameters to be:
m = 1, u = exp(λσ√ ∆t), d = 1/u
pu =( md − M(m + d) + (M^2)*V )/ (u − d)(u − m) ,
pd =( um − M(u + m) + (M^2)*V )/ (u − d)(m − d)
Boyle suggested that the choice of value for λ should exceed 1 and the best results were obtained when λ is approximately 1.20. One approach to constructing trinomial trees is to develop two steps of a binomial in combination as a single step of a trinomial tree. This can be engineered with many binomials CRR(1979), JR(1979) and Tian (1993) where the volatility is constant.
Further reading:
A Lattice Framework for Option Pricing with Two State
Trinomial tree via wikipedia
Inputs
Spot price: select from 33 different types of price inputs
Calculation Steps: how many iterations to be used in the Trinomial model. In practice, this number would be anywhere from 5000 to 15000, for our purposes here, this is limited to 220.
Strike Price: the strike price of the option you're wishing to model
Market Price: this is the market price of the option; choose, last, bid, or ask to see different results
Historical Volatility Period: the input period for historical volatility ; historical volatility isn't used in the Trinomial model, this is to serve as a comparison, even though historical volatility is from price movement of the underlying asset where as implied volatility is the volatility of the option
Historical Volatility Type: choose from various types of implied volatility , search my indicators for details on each of these
Option Base Currency: this is to calculate the risk-free rate, this is used if you wish to automatically calculate the risk-free rate instead of using the manual input. this uses the 10 year bold yield of the corresponding country
% Manual Risk-free Rate: here you can manually enter the risk-free rate
Use manual input for Risk-free Rate? : choose manual or automatic for risk-free rate
% Manual Yearly Dividend Yield: here you can manually enter the yearly dividend yield
Adjust for Dividends?: choose if you even want to use use dividends
Automatically Calculate Yearly Dividend Yield? choose if you want to use automatic vs manual dividend yield calculation
Time Now Type: choose how you want to calculate time right now, see the tool tip
Days in Year: choose how many days in the year, 365 for all days, 252 for trading days, etc
Hours Per Day: how many hours per day? 24, 8 working hours, or 6.5 trading hours
Expiry date settings: here you can specify the exact time the option expires
Included
Option pricing panel
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Related indicators
Implied Volatility Estimator using Black Scholes
Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Binomial Tree Options Pricing Model
Implied Volatility Estimator using Black Scholes [Loxx]Implied Volatility Estimator using Black Scholes derives a estimation of implied volatility using the Black Scholes options pricing model. The Bisection algorithm is used for our purposes here. This includes the ability to adjust for dividends.
Implied Volatility
The implied volatility (IV) of an option contract is that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when input in an option pricing model (such as Black–Scholes), will return a theoretical value equal to the current market price of that option. The VIX , in contrast, is a model-free estimate of Implied Volatility. The latter is viewed as being important because it represents a measure of risk for the underlying asset. Elevated Implied Volatility suggests that risks to underlying are also elevated. Ordinarily, to estimate implied volatility we rely upon Black-Scholes (1973). This implies that we are prepared to accept the assumptions of Black Scholes (1973).
Inputs
Spot price: select from 33 different types of price inputs
Strike Price: the strike price of the option you're wishing to model
Market Price: this is the market price of the option; choose, last, bid, or ask to see different results
Historical Volatility Period: the input period for historical volatility ; historical volatility isn't used in the Bisection algo, this is to serve as a comparison, even though historical volatility is from price movement of the underlying asset where as implied volatility is the volatility of the option
Historical Volatility Type: choose from various types of implied volatility , search my indicators for details on each of these
Option Base Currency: this is to calculate the risk-free rate, this is used if you wish to automatically calculate the risk-free rate instead of using the manual input. this uses the 10 year bold yield of the corresponding country
% Manual Risk-free Rate: here you can manually enter the risk-free rate
Use manual input for Risk-free Rate? : choose manual or automatic for risk-free rate
% Manual Yearly Dividend Yield: here you can manually enter the yearly dividend yield
Adjust for Dividends?: choose if you even want to use use dividends
Automatically Calculate Yearly Dividend Yield? choose if you want to use automatic vs manual dividend yield calculation
Time Now Type: choose how you want to calculate time right now, see the tool tip
Days in Year: choose how many days in the year, 365 for all days, 252 for trading days, etc
Hours Per Day: how many hours per day? 24, 8 working hours, or 6.5 trading hours
Expiry date settings: here you can specify the exact time the option expires
*** the algorithm inputs for low and high aren't to be changed unless you're working through the mathematics of how Bisection works.
Included
Option pricing panel
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Related Indicators
Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Binomial Tree Options Pricing Model
Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Binomial Tree Options Pricing Model [Loxx]Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Binomial Tree Options Pricing Model is an options pricing panel calculated using an N-iteration (limited to 300 in Pine Script due to matrices size limits) "discrete-time" (lattice based) method to approximate the closed-form Black–Scholes formula. Joshi (2008) outlined varying binomial options pricing model furnishes a numerical approach for the valuation of options. Significantly, the American analogue can be estimated using the binomial tree. This indicator is the complex calculation for Binomial option pricing. Most folks take a shortcut and only calculate 2 iterations. I've coded this to allow for up to 300 iterations. This can be used to price American Puts/Calls and European Puts/Calls. I'll be updating this indicator will be updated with additional features over time. If you would like to learn more about options, I suggest you check out the book textbook Options, Futures and other Derivative by John C Hull.
***This indicator only works on the daily timeframe!***
A quick graphic of what this all means:
In the graphic, "n" are the steps, in this case we can do up to 300, in production we'd need to do 5-15K. That's a lot of steps! You can see here how the binomial tree fans out. As I said previously, most folks only calculate 2 steps, here we are calculating up to 300.
Want to learn more about Simple Introduction to Cox, Ross Rubinstein (1979) ?
Watch this short series "Introduction to Basic Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) model."
Limitations of Black Scholes options pricing model
This is a widely used and well-known options pricing model, factors in current stock price, options strike price, time until expiration (denoted as a percent of a year), and risk-free interest rates. The Black-Scholes Model is quick in calculating any number of option prices. But the model cannot accurately calculate American options, since it only considers the price at an option's expiration date. American options are those that the owner may exercise at any time up to and including the expiration day.
What are Binomial Trees in options pricing?
A useful and very popular technique for pricing an option involves constructing a binomial tree. This is a diagram representing different possible paths that might be followed by the stock price over the life of an option. The underlying assumption is that the stock price follows a random walk. In each time step, it has a certain probability of moving up by a certain percentage amount and a certain probability of moving down by a certain percentage amount. In the limit, as the time step becomes smaller, this model is the same as the Black–Scholes–Merton model.
What is the Binomial options pricing model ?
This model uses a tree diagram with volatility factored in at each level to show all possible paths an option's price can take, then works backward to determine one price. The benefit of the Binomial Model is that you can revisit it at any point for the possibility of early exercise. Early exercise is executing the contract's actions at its strike price before the contract's expiration. Early exercise only happens in American-style options. However, the calculations involved in this model take a long time to determine, so this model isn't the best in rushed situations.
What is the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Model?
The Cox-Ross-Rubinstein binomial model can be used to price European and American options on stocks without dividends, stocks and stock indexes paying a continuous dividend yield, futures, and currency options. Option pricing is done by working backwards, starting at the terminal date. Here we know all the possible values of the underlying price. For each of these, we calculate the payoffs from the derivative, and find what the set of possible derivative prices is one period before. Given these, we can find the option one period before this again, and so on. Working ones way down to the root of the tree, the option price is found as the derivative price in the first node.
Inputs
Spot price: select from 33 different types of price inputs
Calculation Steps: how many iterations to be used in the Binomial model. In practice, this number would be anywhere from 5000 to 15000, for our purposes here, this is limited to 300
Strike Price: the strike price of the option you're wishing to model
% Implied Volatility: here you can manually enter implied volatility
Historical Volatility Period: the input period for historical volatility; historical volatility isn't used in the CRRBT process, this is to serve as a sort of benchmark for the implied volatility,
Historical Volatility Type: choose from various types of implied volatility, search my indicators for details on each of these
Option Base Currency: this is to calculate the risk-free rate, this is used if you wish to automatically calculate the risk-free rate instead of using the manual input. this uses the 10 year bold yield of the corresponding country
% Manual Risk-free Rate: here you can manually enter the risk-free rate
Use manual input for Risk-free Rate? : choose manual or automatic for risk-free rate
% Manual Yearly Dividend Yield: here you can manually enter the yearly dividend yield
Adjust for Dividends?: choose if you even want to use use dividends
Automatically Calculate Yearly Dividend Yield? choose if you want to use automatic vs manual dividend yield calculation
Time Now Type: choose how you want to calculate time right now, see the tool tip
Days in Year: choose how many days in the year, 365 for all days, 252 for trading days, etc
Hours Per Day: how many hours per day? 24, 8 working hours, or 6.5 trading hours
Expiry date settings: here you can specify the exact time the option expires
Take notes:
Futures don't risk free yields. If you are pricing options of futures, then the risk-free rate is zero.
Dividend yields are calculated using TradingView's internal dividend values
This indicator only works on the daily timeframe
Included
Option pricing panel
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
RSI-Adaptive, GKYZ-Filtered DEMA [Loxx]RSI-Adaptive, GKYZ-Filtered DEMA is a Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang Historical Volatility Filtered, RSI-Adaptive Double Exponential Moving Average. This is an experimental indicator. The way this is calculated is by turning RSI into an alpha value that is then injected into a DEMA function to output price. Price is then filtered using GKYZ Historical volatility. This process of creating an alpha out of RSI is only relevant to EMA-based moving averages that use an alpha value for it's calculation.
What is Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang Historical Volatility?
Yang and Zhang derived an extension to the Garman Klass historical volatility estimator that allows for opening jumps. It assumes Brownian motion with zero drift. This is currently the preferred version of open-high-low-close volatility estimator for zero drift and has an efficiency of 8 times the classic close-to-close estimator. Note that when the drift is nonzero, but instead relative large to the volatility , this estimator will tend to overestimate the volatility . The Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang Historical Volatility calculation is as follows:
GKYZHV = sqrt((Z/n) * sum((log(open(k)/close( k-1 )))^2 + (0.5*(log(high(k)/low(k)))^2) - (2*log(2) - 1)*(log(close(k)/open(2:end)))^2))
Included
Alerts
Signals
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Bar coloring
Roger & Satchell Estimator Historical Volatility Bands [Loxx]Roger & Satchell Estimator Historical Volatility Bands are constructed using:
Average as the middle line.
Upper and lower bands using theRoger & Satchell Estimator Historical Volatility Bands for bands calculation.
What is Roger & Satchell Estimator Historical Volatility?
The Rogers–Satchell estimator does not handle opening jumps; therefore, it underestimates the volatility. It accurately explains the volatility portion that can be attributed entirely to a trend in the price evolution. Rogers and Satchell try to embody the frequency of price observations in the model in order to overcome the drawback. They claim that the corrected estimator outperforms the uncorrected one in a study based on simulated data.
RSEHV = sqrt((Z/n) * sum((log(high/close)*log(high/open)) + (log(low/close)*log(low/open))))
The color of the middle line, unlike the bands colors, has 3 colors. When colors of the bands are the same, then the middle line has the same color, otherwise it's white.
Included
Alerts
Signals
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Bar coloring
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang Historical Volatility Bands [Loxx]Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang Historical Volatility Bands are constructed using:
Average as the middle line.
Upper and lower bands using the Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang Historical Volatility Bands for bands calculation.
What is Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang Historical Volatility?
Yang and Zhang derived an extension to the Garman Klass historical volatility estimator that allows for opening jumps. It assumes Brownian motion with zero drift. This is currently the preferred version of open-high-low-close volatility estimator for zero drift and has an efficiency of 8 times the classic close-to-close estimator. Note that when the drift is nonzero, but instead relative large to the volatility, this estimator will tend to overestimate the volatility. The Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang Historical Volatility calculation is as follows:
GKYZHV = sqrt((Z/n) * sum((log(open(k)/close(k-1)))^2 + (0.5*(log(high(k)/low(k)))^2) - (2*log(2) - 1)*(log(close(k)/open(2:end)))^2))
The color of the middle line, unlike the bands colors, has 3 colors. When colors of the bands are the same, then the middle line has the same color, otherwise it's white.
Included
Alerts
Signals
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Bar coloring
Related Indicators
Garman & Klass Estimator Historical Volatility Bands
Garman & Klass Estimator Historical Volatility Bands [Loxx]Garman & Klass Estimator Historical Volatility Bands are constructed using:
Average as the middle line.
Upper and lower bands using the Garman & Klass Estimator Historical Volatility (instead of "regular" Historical Volatility ) for bands calculation.
What is Garman & Klaus Historical Volatility?
Garman Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security. The Garman and Klass estimator for estimating historical volatility assumes Brownian motion with zero drift and no opening jumps (i.e. the opening = close of the previous period). This estimator is 7.4 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator. Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing price. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate. Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change is a process of continuous diffusion (geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements. Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremums.
The Garman & Klass Estimator is as follows:
GKE = sqrt((Z/n)* sum((0.5*(log(high./low)).^2) - (2*log(2) - 1).*(log(close./open)).^2))
The color of the middle line, unlike the bands colors, has 3 colors. When colors of the bands are the same, then the middle line has the same color, otherwise it's white.
Included
Alerts
Signals
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Bar coloring
Related indicators:
Parkinson's Historical Volatility Bands
High/Low Historical Volatility Bands [Loxx]High/Low Historical Volatility Bands are constructed using:
Average as the middle line.
Upper and lower bands using the Historical Volatility high/low (instead of "regular" Historical Volatility) for bands calculation.
What is Historical Volatility?
Historical Volatility (HV) is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index over a given period of time. Generally, this measure is calculated by determining the average deviation from the average price of a financial instrument in the given time period. Using standard deviation is the most common, but not the only, way to calculate Historical Volatility .
The higher the Historical Volatility value, the riskier the security. However, that is not necessarily a bad result as risk works both ways - bullish and bearish , i.e: Historical Volatility is not a directional indicator and should not be used as other directional indicators are used. Use to to determine the rising and falling price change volatility .
SH is stock's High price in t day.
SL is stock's Low price in t day.
High/Low Return (xt^HL) is calculated as the natural logarithm of the ratio of a stock's High price to stock's Low price.
Return:
And Parkinson's number: 1 / (4 * math.log(2)) * 252 / n * Σ (n, t =1) {math.log(Ht/Lt)^2}
An important use of the Parkinson's number is the assessment of the distribution prices during the day as well as a better understanding of the market dynamics. Comparing the Parkinson's number and periodically sampled volatility helps traders understand the tendency towards mean reversion in the market as well as the distribution of stop-losses.
The color of the middle line, unlike the bands colors, has 3 colors. When colors of the bands are the same, then the middle line has the same color, otherwise it's white.
Included
Alerts
Signals
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Bar coloring
Related indicators:
Parkinson's Historical Volatility Bands
Historical Volatility Bands
Parkinson's Historical Volatility Bands [Loxx]Parkinson's Historical Volatility Bands are constructed using:
Average as the middle line.
Upper and lower bands using the Parkinson's historical volatility (instead of "regular" Historical Volatility) for bands calculation.
What is Parkinson's Historical Volatility?
The Parkinson's number, or High Low Range Volatility developed by the physicist, Michael Parkinson in 1980, aims to estimate the Volatility of returns for a random walk using the High and Low in any particular period. IVolatility.com calculates daily Parkinson values. Prices are observed on a fixed time interval: n = 10, 20, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180 days.
SH is stock's High price in t day.
SL is stock's Low price in t day.
High/Low Return (xt^HL) is calculated as the natural logarithm of the ratio of a stock's High price to stock's Low price.
Return:
And Parkinson's number: 1 / (4 * math.log(2)) * 252 / n * Σ (n, t =1) {math.log(Ht/Lt)^2}
An important use of the Parkinson's number is the assessment of the distribution prices during the day as well as a better understanding of the market dynamics. Comparing the Parkinson's number and periodically sampled volatility helps traders understand the tendency towards mean reversion in the market as well as the distribution of stop-losses.
The color of the middle line, unlike the bands colors, has 3 colors. When colors of the bands are the same, then the middle line has the same color, otherwise it's white.
Included
Alerts
Signals
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Bar coloring
Historical Volatility Bands [Loxx]Historical Volatility Bands are constructed using:
Average as the middle line.
Upper and lower bands using the Historical Volatility for bands calculation.
What is Historical Volatility?
Historical Volatility (HV) is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index over a given period of time. Generally, this measure is calculated by determining the average deviation from the average price of a financial instrument in the given time period. Using standard deviation is the most common, but not the only, way to calculate Historical Volatility.
The higher the Historical Volatility value, the riskier the security. However, that is not necessarily a bad result as risk works both ways - bullish and bearish, i.e: Historical Volatility is not a directional indicator and should not be used as other directional indicators are used. Use to to determine the rising and falling price change volatility.
The color of the middle line, unlike the bands colors, has 3 colors. When colors of the bands are the same, then the middle line has the same color, otherwise it's white.
Included
Alerts
Signals
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Bar coloring
Full Volatility Statistics and Forecast
This is a tool designed to translate the data from the expected volatility of different assets, such as for example VIX, which measures the volatility of SP500 index.
Once get the data from the volatility asset we want to measure(for this test I have used VIX), we are going to translate it the required timeframe expected move by dividing the initial value into :
252 = if we want to use the daily timeframe, since there are ~252 aproximative daily trading days
52 = if we want to use the weekly timeframe, since there 52 trading weeks in a year
12 = if we want to use the monthly timeframe, since there are 12 months in a year
For this example I have used 252 with the daily timeframe.
In this scenario, we can see that we had 5711 total cnadles which we analysed, and in this case, we had 942 crosses, where the daily movement ended up either above or below the channel made from the opening daily candle value + expected movement from the volatility, giving as a total of 16.5% of occurances that volatility was higher than expected, and in 83.5% of the times, we can see that the price stayed within our channel.
At the same time, we can see that we had 6 max losses in a row ( OUT) AND 95 max wins in a row (IN), and at the same time in those moments when the volatility crosses happen we had a 0.51% avg movements when the top crossed happened, and 0.67% avg movements when the bot happened.
Lastly on the second part of the panel, we had E which means the expected movement of today, for example it has 61.056$ , so lets say price opened on 4083, our top is 4083 + 61 and our bot is 4083 - 61 ( giving us the daily channel). At continuation we can see that overall the avg bull candle os 0.714% and avg bear candle was 0.805% .
I hope this tool will help you with your future analysis and trades !
If you have any questions please let me know !
vol_coneDraws a volatility cone on the chart, using the contract's realized volatility (rv). The inputs are:
- window: the number of past periods to use for computing the realized volatility. VIX uses 30 calendar days, which is 21 trading days, so 21 is the default.
- stdevs: the number of standard deviations that the cone will cover.
- periods to project: the length of the volatility cone.
- periods per year: the number of periods in a year. for a daily chart, this is 252. for a thirty minute chart on a contract that trades 23 hours a day, this is 23 * 2 * 252 = 11592. for an accurate cone, this input must be set correctly, according to the chart's time frame.
- history: show the lagged projections. in other words, if the cone is set to project 21 periods in the future, the lines drawn show the top and bottom edges of the cone from 23 periods ago.
- rate: the current interest or discount rate. this is used to compute the forward price of the underlying contract. using an accurate forward price allows you to compare the realized volatility projection to the implied volatility projections derived from options prices.
Example settings for a 30 minute chart of a contract that trades 23 hours per day, with 1 standard deviation, a 21 day rv calculation, and half a day projected:
- stdevs: 1
- periods to project: 23
- window: 23 * 2 * 21 = 966
- periods per year: 23 * 2 * 252 = 11592
Additionally, a table is drawn in the upper right hand corner, with several values:
- rv: the contract's current realized volatility.
- rnk: the rv's percentile rank, compared to the rv values on past bars.
- acc: the proportion of times price settled inside, versus outside, the volatility cone, "periods to project" into the future. this should be around 65-70% for most contracts when the cone is set to 1 standard deviation.
- up: the upper bound of the cone for the projection period.
- dn: the lower bound of the cone for the projection period.
Limitations:
- pinescript only seems to be able to draw a limited distance into the future. If you choose too many "periods to project", the cone will start drawing vertically at some limit.
- the cone is not totally smooth owing to the facts a) it is comprised of a limited number of lines and b) each bar does not represent the same amount of time in pinescript, as some cross weekends, session gaps, etc.
Damiani Volatmeter [loxx]I wasn't going to publish this since it's one my go to private indicators, but I decided to push this out anyway. This is a variation on Damiani Volatmeter to make it easier to understand what's going on. Damiani Volatmeter uses ATR and Standard deviation to tease out ticker volatility so you can better understand when it's the ideal time to trade. The idea here is that you only take trades when volatility is high so this indicator is to be coupled with various other indicators to validate the other indicator's signals. This is also useful for detecting crabbing and chopping markets.
Shoutout to user @xinolia for the DV function used here.
Anything red means that volatility is low. Remember volatility doesn't have a direction. Anything green means volatility high despite the direction of price. The core signal line here is the green and red line that dips below two while threshold lines to "recharge". Maximum recharge happen when the core signal line shows a yellow ping. Soon after one or many yellow pings you should expect a massive upthrust of volatility. The idea here is you don't trade unless volatility is rising or green. This means that the Volatmeter has to dip into the recharge zone, recharge and then spike upward. You can also attempt to buy or sell reversals with confluence indicators when volatility is in the recharge zone, but I wouldn't recommend this. However, if you so choose to do this, then use the following indicator for confluence.
And last reminder, volatility doesn't have a direction ! Red doesn't mean short, and green doesn't mean long, Red means don't trade period regardless of direction long/short, and green means trade no matter the direction long/short. This means you'll have to add an indicator that does show direction such as a mean reversion indicator like Fisher Transform or a Gaussian Filter. You can search my public scripts for various Fisher Transform and Gaussian Filter indicators.
Price-Filtered Spearman Rank Correl. w/ Floating Levels is considered the Mercedes Benz of reversal indcators
How signals work
RV = Rising Volatility
VD = Volatility Dump
Plots
White line is signal
Thick red/green line is the Volatmeter line
The dotted lower lines are the zero line and minimum recharging line
Included
Bar coloring
Alerts
Signals
Related indicators
Variety Moving Average Waddah Attar Explosion (WAE)
Average Daily Pip Ranges by monthShows historical average daily pip ranges for specific months for FOREX pairs
useful for guaging typical seasonal volatility; or rough expected daily pip ranges for different months
works on both DXY and foreign currencies
option to plot 10yrs worth of data; with 10yr average of the average daily range for specific months
cast back to any previous 10yrs of your choosing
@twingall
Jurik Composite Fractal Behavior (CFB) on EMA [Loxx]Jurik Composite Fractal Behavior (CFB) on EMA is an exponential moving average with adaptive price trend duration inputs. This purpose of this indicator is to introduce the formulas for the calculation Composite Fractal Behavior. As you can see from the chart above, price reacts wildly to shifts in volatility--smoothing out substantially while riding a volatility wave and cutting sharp corners when volatility drops. Notice the chop zone on BTC around August 2021, this was a time of extremely low relative volatility.
This indicator uses three previous indicators from my public scripts. These are:
JCFBaux Volatility
Jurik Filter
Jurik Volty
The CFB is also related to the following indicator
Jurik Velocity ("smoother moment")
Now let's dive in...
What is Composite Fractal Behavior (CFB)?
All around you mechanisms adjust themselves to their environment. From simple thermostats that react to air temperature to computer chips in modern cars that respond to changes in engine temperature, r.p.m.'s, torque, and throttle position. It was only a matter of time before fast desktop computers applied the mathematics of self-adjustment to systems that trade the financial markets.
Unlike basic systems with fixed formulas, an adaptive system adjusts its own equations. For example, start with a basic channel breakout system that uses the highest closing price of the last N bars as a threshold for detecting breakouts on the up side. An adaptive and improved version of this system would adjust N according to market conditions, such as momentum, price volatility or acceleration.
Since many systems are based directly or indirectly on cycles, another useful measure of market condition is the periodic length of a price chart's dominant cycle, (DC), that cycle with the greatest influence on price action.
The utility of this new DC measure was noted by author Murray Ruggiero in the January '96 issue of Futures Magazine. In it. Mr. Ruggiero used it to adaptive adjust the value of N in a channel breakout system. He then simulated trading 15 years of D-Mark futures in order to compare its performance to a similar system that had a fixed optimal value of N. The adaptive version produced 20% more profit!
This DC index utilized the popular MESA algorithm (a formulation by John Ehlers adapted from Burg's maximum entropy algorithm, MEM). Unfortunately, the DC approach is problematic when the market has no real dominant cycle momentum, because the mathematics will produce a value whether or not one actually exists! Therefore, we developed a proprietary indicator that does not presuppose the presence of market cycles. It's called CFB (Composite Fractal Behavior) and it works well whether or not the market is cyclic.
CFB examines price action for a particular fractal pattern, categorizes them by size, and then outputs a composite fractal size index. This index is smooth, timely and accurate
Essentially, CFB reveals the length of the market's trending action time frame. Long trending activity produces a large CFB index and short choppy action produces a small index value. Investors have found many applications for CFB which involve scaling other existing technical indicators adaptively, on a bar-to-bar basis.
What is Jurik Volty used in the Juirk Filter?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
Modifications and improvements
1. Jurik's original calculation for CFB only allowed for depth lengths of 24, 48, 96, and 192. For theoretical purposes, this indicator allows for up to 20 different depth inputs to sample volatility. These depth lengths are
2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12, 16, 24, 32, 48, 64, 96, 128, 192, 256, 384, 512, 768, 1024, 1536
Including these additional length inputs is arguable useless, but they are are included for completeness of the algorithm.
2. The result of the CFB calculation is forced to be an integer greater than or equal to 1.
3. The result of the CFB calculation is double filtered using an advanced, (and adaptive itself) filtering algorithm called the Jurik Filter. This filter and accompanying internal algorithm are discussed above.
Sentient levelThe indicator presented here is made based on the study published on NSE:INDIAVIX . Basically it shows 2 sigma (by default) trading ranges of the next day (by default) of indices e.g. NSE:NIFTY & NSE:BANKNIFTY . Everyday three new lines get plotted automatically on the chart of the instrument (preferably NSE:NIFTY & NSE:BANKNIFTY ) you want to trade. Generally it's expected that the index to be traded within the ranges however in case of major gap-up or gap-down if the index opens above the higher range or below the lower range then it's assumed that the day to remain very volatile. This three lines can be considered as important support/resistance . Default parameters are set in consideration of day trading however user can modify them manually as per their trading style.
If you like my work you can donate through Tradingview coin. Thanks
Historical Volatility RatioHistorical volatility is an indicator of the extent to which a price may diverge from its average in a given period. Hence, increased price fluctuation results in a higher historical volatility value. It is important to keep in mind that the historical volatility figure does not indicate the price direction but rather how unstable a price is.
Volatility is generally a measure of the riskiness of an investment. Increased volatility serves as an indication of increased uncertainty and risk. The opposite is also true; decreased volatility serves as an indication for lowered uncertainty and risk. As commonly expected in financial instrument trading, HV can be used along with other trading patterns, trends, and other indicators to identify instruments that they consider to be risky or highly volatile.
Historical volatility can be utilized as an instrument by traders who only trade underlying financial instruments. Measuring the instability of a market can impact the expectation of an investor on how much or to what extent the market may change and offers some guidance in making price forecasts and executing a trade.
A high volatility can imply a possible change of trend when aggressive buying/selling enters the market because the large transaction volumes will trigger notable price reversals.
Furthermore, historical volatility does not assess the probability of loss primarily, even though it can be used to provide an indication thereof.
HV can be used to assess by how much the price of a security shifts from its average value. In markets where a predominant trend exists, historical volatility provides an overview of the extent to which traded prices may have deviated from a central or moving average price. In smooth markets with a strong predominant trend, low volatility levels can be expected even though prices may fluctuate drastically as time passes.
This version is just a smoother version of standard HV. This is achieved by dividing HV of 2 different periods.
