Nq/ES daily CME risk intervalNQ/ES Daily CME Range Indicator: Description and Usage
What the Indicator Does
Reverse engineering the risk interval for CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) products based on margin requirements involves understanding the relationship between margin requirements, volatility, and the risk interval (price movement assumed for margin calculation)
The CME uses a methodology called SPAN (Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk) to calculate margins. At a high level, the initial margin is derived from:
Initial Margin = Risk Interval × Contract Size × Volatility Adjustment Factor
This indicator creates daily risk intervals for NQ/ES futures contracts based on volatility measurements given the fact that the CME volatility adjustment factor is not public.
The indicator draws horizontal lines on your chart that represent expected price movement ranges based on:
Your specified maintenance margin requirements
Current and historical volatility calculations
Contract lifecycle and rollover detection
The indicator automatically detects when futures contracts roll over to a new contract month, dynamically adjusts volatility calculations throughout the contract lifecycle, and displays the intervals as horizontal lines that extend from the previous day's close. These intervals give you a visual representation of likely price ranges for the current trading session.
How to Use the Indicator
To use this indicator effectively:
Add it to your NQ or ES futures chart (works on continuous contracts or individual contract months)
Set your maintenance margin amount in the risk interval settings (product margins page from the CME website. I tend to use the maintenance short margin)
The indicator will automatically draw horizontal lines at 18:00 ET each day
Use these lines as potential profit targets in volatile days
Monitor the information table for details on volatility, risk interval size, and contract lifecycle
The indicator helps you visualize expected price movement based on market volatility and your specified risk parameters, allowing you to make more informed trading decisions about position sizing and potential profit targets.
Additionally, when the market moves on news/events you will notice it will most often move exactly the risk interval value.
Why These Settings Work as Defaults
First Month Vol Period (30): The first 30 days after contract rollover typically have different volatility characteristics. This setting ensures accurate volatility measurements during this period when contract behaviour may be less stable.
Enable Volatility Floor (Checked): This prevents volatility from falling below historical levels, ensuring your risk intervals don't become too narrow during artificially calm periods. Research shows that protracted low volatility can lead to a build-up of leverage and risk, making the system vulnerable.
Volatility Floor % (0.7): The 0.7 setting works better than higher values because it better accounts for how equity volatility behaves at lower bounds. It allows for natural mean reversion while still providing protection against underestimating risk during low volatility periods.
Transition Period (30 days): This creates a smooth transition from the first month volatility period to the actual days since rollover calculation, preventing abrupt changes in your risk intervals.
Annual Trading Days (252): 252 is the standard number of trading days in a year used in financial calculations. This value is used for properly annualizing volatility measurements.
Long-Term Volatility Period (504): A 504-day period (approximately 2 years of trading days) provides several advantages over the standard 252-day setting. It better captures full market cycles including both bull and bear markets, provides more stable volatility estimates across regime changes, and results in more reliable risk intervals. Research shows this longer timeframe produces better volatility forecasts for futures markets, as it captures a more comprehensive range of market conditions while smoothing out anomalous periods.
The combination of these settings—particularly the 504-day long-term period with the 0.7 volatility floor—creates more stable and reliable risk intervals that adapt appropriately to changing market conditions without becoming overly sensitive to short-term fluctuations or too sluggish during genuine market shifts.
Cmefutures
CME Bitcoin Weekend Gap (Global) @jerikooDescription:
The Problem: You are watching the wrong hours. Many traders assume CME Bitcoin futures follow standard stock market hours or open Monday morning. This is incorrect.
Stock Market: Opens Monday morning.
CME Bitcoin: Opens Sunday Evening (US Time).
If you are in Europe, this means the market actually opens at Midnight (00:00) Monday. If you are waiting for the "Monday Morning Open," you are late.
The Solution: True Gap Detection This indicator highlights the exact downtime of the CME Bitcoin Futures market to help you identify true liquidity gaps.
Why this script is different: Most gap scripts break when you change your chart's time zone (e.g., switching from UTC to New York). This script is Universal.
Hardcoded Exchange Time: It calculates logic based on "America/Chicago" (CME HQ) time, regardless of your local chart settings.
Manual Offset Fix: Some data feeds have a +/- 1 or 2-hour sync difference depending on the broker. This script includes a "Hour Shift" setting to manually align the box perfectly to your specific candles.
How to use:
Add to your chart.
Look for the Dark Green highlighted zone.
This zone represents the Weekend Gap (Friday Close to Sunday Open).
Troubleshooting: If the box starts 1-2 hours too early or too late, go to Settings and change the "Hour Shift" value (e.g., -1, +1) until it snaps perfectly to the Friday close candle.
Technical Details:
CME Close: Friday 16:00 CT
CME Open: Sunday 17:00 CT
Color: Dark Green (50% Transparency)
Step 3: Categories & Tags
Select these options in the right-hand menu of the publishing page.
Category: Trend Analysis OR Bitcoin
Tags: CME Bitcoin BTC Gap Futures Weekend
Step 4: Final Checklist Before Clicking "Publish"
Load the Code: Make sure the "Manual Fix" version of the code (the last one I gave you) is currently open in the Pine Editor.
Add to Chart: You must click "Add to Chart" so the script is visible on your screen before publishing.
Privacy: Select Public (so others can search for it) or Private (if you only want to share the link).
Visibility: Choose Open (so others can see the code) or Protected (if you want to hide the code, though Open is better for simple scripts like this).
Bitcoin CME gaps multi-timeframe auto finder1. Overview
The Bitcoin CME Gap Multi-Timeframe Detector automatically identifies price gaps in the Bitcoin CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures market and visually displays them on the TradingView chart.
Because the CME futures market closes for about an hour after each weekday session and remains closed over the weekend, price gaps frequently appear when trading resumes on Monday.
This indicator analyzes gaps across six major timeframes, from 5-minute to 1-day charts, allowing traders to easily identify structural imbalances and potential support/resistance zones.
It is the most accurate and feature-rich CME gaps indicator available on TradingView.
2. Key Features
■ Multi-Timeframe Gap Detection
Analyzes 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 4h, and 1D charts simultaneously.
This enables traders to observe both short-term volatility and mid-to-long-term structure, providing a multi-dimensional view of market dynamics.
■ Gap Direction Classification
Up Gap: When the next candle’s open is higher than the previous candle’s high (default color: green tone)
Down Gap: When the next candle’s open is lower than the previous candle’s low (default color: red tone)
Gaps are color-coded to intuitively visualize potential support and resistance zones.
■ Highlight Function
Gaps exceeding a user-defined threshold (%) are highlighted (default color: yellow).
This helps quickly identify zones with abnormal volatility or sharp price dislocations.
■ Labels and Box Extension
Each gap displays a percentage label indicating its relative size and significance.
Gap zones are extended to the right as boxes, allowing traders to visually track when and how the gap gets filled over time.
■ Alert System
When a gap forms on the selected timeframe (or across all timeframes), a TradingView alert is triggered.
This enables real-time response to significant gap events.
3. Trading Strategies
■ Gap Fill Behavior
CME gaps statistically tend to get filled over time.
Gap boxes help distinguish between filled and unfilled gaps at a glance.
Up Gap: Price tends to decline to fill the previous high–next open zone.
Down Gap: Price often rises later to fill the previous low–next open zone.
■ Support & Resistance Levels
Gap zones frequently act as strong support or resistance.
When price retests a gap area, observing the reaction of buyers and sellers can provide valuable trading insights.
Overlapping gap boxes across multiple timeframes indicate high-confidence support/resistance zones.
■ Market Sentiment & Volatility Analysis
Large gaps usually result from shifts in market sentiment or major news events.
This indicator allows traders to detect volatility spikes early and prepare for potential trend reversals.
■ Combination with Other Technical Tools
While fully functional on its own, this indicator works even better when combined with tools like moving averages (MA), RSI, MACD, or Fibonacci retracements.
For example, if the bottom of a gap coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, it may signal a strong rebound zone.
4. Settings Options
Minimum Gap % | Sets the minimum percentage movement required to detect a gap (lower values show smaller gaps)
Display Timeframes | Choose which timeframes to display (5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 4h, 1D)
Box Colors | Assign colors for up and down gaps
Box Extension (Bars) | Number of bars to extend gap boxes to the right
Show Labels | Toggle display of gap percentage labels
Label Position / Size | Adjust label position and size
Highlight Gap ≥ % | Highlight gaps exceeding a specified percentage
Highlight Colors | Set highlight color for labels and boxes
Enable Alerts | Enable or disable alerts
Alert Timeframe | Select timeframe(s) for alerts (“All” = all timeframes)
5. Summary
This indicator is a professional trading tool that provides quantitative and visual analysis of price gaps in the Bitcoin CME futures market.
By combining multi-timeframe detection, highlighting, and alert systems, it helps traders clearly identify zones of market imbalance and potential reversal areas.
Sentinel Nexus Dashboard [AGP] Ver.1.5Sentinel Nexus Dashboard is a versatile Pine Script designed as a comprehensive technical analysis tool. It condenses a variety of key indicators and metrics into a single, intuitive visual dashboard, providing an integrated view of market trends, momentum, volatility, and liquidity, all neatly organized on your TradingView chart.
Key Features and Benefits
All-in-One Dashboard: This script centralizes relevant information, offering a clean, efficient control panel that helps you make quick decisions without cluttering your chart with multiple overlays.
Trend Analysis with ADX: It incorporates the Average Directional Index (ADX) to measure trend strength. The dashboard displays ADX, DI+, and DI- values with dynamic color-coding to highlight trend intensity (e.g., blue for a very strong trend).
Momentum Analysis with MACD: The dashboard shows MACD line and signal line values in a table. The background color of the MACD values reflects the histogram's direction, allowing you to quickly identify crosses and shifts in market momentum.
Multi-Timeframe RSI Analysis: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) dashboard displays values across multiple timeframes (from 1 minute to 1 month). Overbought (77) and oversold (23) levels are color-coded for immediate identification of market conditions, making it an ideal tool for multi-timeframe analysis.
Smart and Dynamic Volume: The script uses a bar coloring algorithm based on average volume. Chart bars change color according to volume magnitude (extreme, high, average, or low) relative to the average, distinguishing between bullish and bearish bars. This helps you identify significant, liquidity-driven price movements.
Fair Value Analysis: The script calculates an asset's "fair value" using a noise filter (similar to a Kalman filter) on recent highs and lows to determine a midpoint. The price dashboard's background color changes to indicate if the current price is above or below this fair value.
Fibonacci EMA Analysis: A table displays several Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) based on the Fibonacci sequence. The values are color-coded to show whether the current price is above (white) or below (orange) each EMA, helping you quickly identify dynamic support and resistance levels.
CME Futures Data Integration: For Bitcoin, the script can show a chart label with the Bitcoin futures price (CME:BTC1!), allowing you to compare the spot price with the CME futures market.
Potential Uses and Applications
The Sentinel Nexus Dashboard is an excellent support tool for trading. It is not a signal system but rather a suite of confirmation tools that can be used to:
Confirm Trend Strength: Before entering a trade, use the ADX data to ensure the trend has enough strength for your expected move.
Detect Reversal Points: Multi-timeframe RSI data can alert you to potential overbought or oversold conditions, indicating possible exhaustion of a price move.
Validate Price Movements: Bar coloring based on volume helps you determine if a price move is genuine and supported by strong market participation. High volume can confirm a breakout or reversal.
Identify Support and Resistance: The Fibonacci EMAs allow you to quickly visualize key levels where price might find support or resistance, aiding in planning entries and exits.
In short, this script is perfect for traders who want a comprehensive market overview without chart clutter. It efficiently integrates trend, momentum, and volume analysis in one place.
Legal Disclaimer
RISK WARNING:
This Pine Script is a technical analysis tool and should not be considered financial advice. Past performance of any indicator is no guarantee of future results. Trading in financial markets involves a high risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. By using this indicator, you accept full responsibility for your trading decisions and acknowledge that any financial loss is your sole responsibility.
IMPORTANT:
Some script functions, such as the CME price label, may not work correctly if your TradingView subscription plan is not a paid one. Please check your plan's limitations to ensure the indicator's optimal functionality.
Real-Time Price Comparator→ La version française se trouve plus bas ←
Real-Time Price Spread Comparator
This indicator allows you to compare the real-time price difference (spread) between two assets. It is particularly useful for spotting arbitrage opportunities or price discrepancies between different markets.
💡 Why is this useful?
This tool is especially practical for monitoring the gap between CME futures and the spot market. If the spread becomes too large, we can expect the market to rebalance, which can help anticipate potential price movements.
📌 Features:
✅ Compare two assets of your choice (default: BTC CME vs. BTC OANDA).
✅ Displays the spread as a real-time value on the chart.
✅ Customizable threshold for alerts when the spread exceeds a certain value.
✅ Visual alert: The label changes color and an alert icon appears when the threshold is exceeded.
✅ Adjustable label position to avoid obstructing candlestick wicks.
🛠️ How to Use:
1️⃣ Choose the asset to compare (for example, BTC CME).
2️⃣ Select the main chart (the one you are currently viewing, such as BTC OANDA).
3️⃣ Set the alert threshold (the spread value that will trigger an alert).
4️⃣ Adjust the label position using the offset settings if needed.
5️⃣ When the spread exceeds the threshold, an alert will be displayed!
-------------------------------------------------
Comparateur de Spread en Temps Réel
Cet indicateur permet de comparer en temps réel la différence de prix (spread) entre deux actifs. Il est particulièrement utile pour détecter des opportunités d’arbitrage ou des écarts de prix entre différents marchés.
💡 Pourquoi c'est utile ?
Cet outil est pratique pour surveiller l’écart entre les contrats à terme CME et le marché spot. Si l’écart devient trop important, on peut s’attendre à ce que le marché s’équilibre, ce qui peut nous orienter sur les futurs mouvements du prix.
📌 Fonctionnalités :
✅ Comparez deux actifs de votre choix (par défaut : BTC CME vs. BTC OANDA).
✅ Affiche le spread en temps réel directement sur le graphique.
✅ Définissez un seuil d’alerte pour être notifié visuellement sur le graphique si le spread dépasse une certaine valeur.
✅ Alerte visuelle : le label change de couleur et une icône d’alerte apparaît en cas de dépassement.
✅ Ajustez la position du label pour éviter qu’il ne cache les mèches des bougies.
🛠️ Comment l’utiliser :
1️⃣ Choisissez l’actif à comparer (exemple : BTC CME).
2️⃣ Sélectionnez ensuite l’actif affiché sur votre graphique principal (exemple : BTC OANDA).
3️⃣ Définissez le seuil d’alerte (valeur du spread qui déclenchera une alerte).
4️⃣ Ajustez la position du label grâce aux options d’offset si nécessaire.
5️⃣ Si le spread dépasse le seuil, une alerte visuelle apparaîtra !
Celestial Pair Spread Hello friends, after a very long time!
Today, I tried to put into code an idea that came to my mind spontaneously and suddenly.
Note :
This script is experimental and improvable.
I haven't had a chance to try it yet.
TIMEFRAME : 1D (Daily Bars)
CELESTIAL SPREAD
The spread moves in a very limited area and is consistent within itself, especially on days far from the end of the contract.
That's why there is a reassuring sky atmosphere. That's why this name was given completely improvised.
Basic logic of the script
We enter the name of the CME Futures contract we want to enter:
Ex : CL1! , ES1! , ZC1! , NQ1!
The script creates us a pair trade parity divided into secondary contracts.
Example : ES1!/ES2!
What is pair trading?
I will explain briefly here.
For users who are wondering:
www.investopedia.com
Let's get back to our topic.
Now we have created a parity that does not actually exist.
This parity is the manifestation of the relative movements of two contracts.
When the parity rises, ES1! increased,ES2! has fallen.
In the opposite case, We can say: ES1! Contract has been dropped ES2! has increased.
Pair trading is generally a trade that needs to be kept in mind from time to time.
It is a method preferred by professionals who can process very quickly.
Market risk is minimal, but since 2 contracts are purchased, more money is paid and very low percentage profits are made.
It is very expensive to do pair trading, especially with oil and its derivatives and interest security derivatives.
The contract we are considering has micros. (small-item contracts tied to the same value)
So when we switch to our broker MES1!/MES2! We will trade.
For all CME futures :
www.cmegroup.com
Anyway, let's continue:
The script created the parity showing its relationship with the next contract and plotted it as bars.
Celestial bands are just like Bollinger bands, but they consist of 3 bands based on percentage changes rather than standard deviation.
The middle band is obtained from moving averages.
The upper and lower bands are the middle band subjected to a threshold value.
The threshold value can be changed.
0.15 percent was charged for this script.
CAUTION :
As can be seen in the example below;
The most important thing is not to make any transactions when the contract switch dates are approaching.
Therefore, it is recommended to use it just below the main chart.
The blue bars in the parity are
Values that outside the upper and lower threshold values are colored blue.
For this condition
Alerts has been added.
Don't forget to add alert and edit.
MAIN PURPOSE
It is aimed to start a pair trade when such conditions come and to quickly close the trades when the parity basis reaches the value.
OTHER IMPORTANT POINTS
Other issues are broker related issues.
Difference between initial margins and maintanence margins of contracts (between 1! and 2!)
It shouldn't be too high.
The commission should not be too high.
Leverage must be high because the profit percentage is very low.
To calculate leverage you must divide your contract size by the relevant margin requirement.
Sample margin requirement table:
www.interactivebrokers.com
RISKS
It is an experimental and intellectual script,
the risk of contract price differences (maybe it will not leave a profit except for very extreme values)
I remind you of the quickness risk that comes from a two-legged trade.
Alerts definitely synchronized with an audible alert sent to a smartphone as an e-mail notification and displayed on the locked screen for quick action.
Best regards!
iGapFinderHi everybody!
I decided to release this script to help traders keeping track of market gaps on the CME.
The script works in general for any market and at any timeframe.
The script allows the user to:
- Identify price gaps of a customized amplitude (Gap Width)
- Compute the probabilities of filling them (specific for bullish and bearish gaps or cumulative)
- Visualize gaps on the chart through red and green price areas.
- Visualize the last N unfilled bullish and bearish gaps together with their time of creation.
(D7R) CME Bitcoin FuturesCME Bitcoin Quarterly Contract Futures Price with 3 different display modes: (Percentage, Delta, Absolute).
This information can be used to understand when futures are trading at relative strong/weak premium or discount against each other.
This information can either be used for cash-n-carry arbitrage, inter-exchange arbitrage, hedging or directional price speculation.
BITCOIN CME FUTURES GAPSDisplays information about Bitcoin CME Futures Gaps over BTCUSD (or XBTUSD) charts.
You can configure a threshold percentage to only display gaps whose size is greater than that percentage. The gap precentage is calculated based on the current close price.
Gaps up are displayed in Orange, gaps down in Green
Bitcoin CME Retail vs Professionals MACD
This is an interesting study using the data provided by the Bitcoin CME Commitment of Traders report.
The MACD plot the difference between the Retail Traders positions and the Professional Traders positions.
The general idea is that Professional Traders have a better read on the market than Retail Traders.
The signal line helps to identify the trend that it is moving in.
I believe that this plot helps to visualize the overall market sentiment better than the raw COT data.
Try it out and let me know what you think!
Gap Trading Strategy: CME BitcoinI created a strategy which finds gaps on CME Futures market for Bitcoin, BTC1! and opens a long or short position on the crypto exchange depending on what kind of gap was found (up or down) on CME.
Up gap: today open price > previous day high price
Down gap: today open price < previous day low price
Two lines below the main chart show when gaps appear. The green line represents the size of up gaps, when it crosses zero it gives a long signal. The red line - represents the size of down gaps, when it crosses zero - short signal.
Instead of having to look between multiple charts, this simply overlays the past weeks open and close should a gap appear.
Usage:
Strategy flips long / short depending of indicator signals. It could cut the position by stop loss or take profit.
Features:
ability to set stop loss and take profit in %
ability to set delta for gaps (if you want to filter small ones)
ability to choose strategy type. Standart: Long Up/Short Down || Inverse: Short Up/Long Down.
Backtesting:
Backtested on BTCPERP ( FTX ) and XBTUSD (Bitmex).
It shows a low drawdown, a small number of trades and 50% of profit for the 2020.
For example, I set high delta for down gaps to filter small ones
Strategy doesn't repaint.
Futures APRFutures basis % for any ticker.
Requires: an index to compare against, the futures ticker, and the expiration year/month/day/hour. Optional second ticker to compare with.
Example explanation using bitcoin futures:
For Deribit, their futures expire at 0800UTC and the ticker will show the date of expiration. For example, BTC27H20's expiration is the 27th of March, 2020, at 0800UTC. For BitMEX, their futures expire at 1200UTC and have the same expiration dates.
www.deribit.com
"3 and 6 months quarterly of the March, June, September, December cycle; Quarterly futures expire the last Friday of each calendar quarter at 08.00 UTC."
www.bitmex.com
Archived page here: archive.is
"This contract settles on the .BXBT30M Index value as of the Jun 26, 5:00 AM (12:00:00 PM UTC)."
Once the June 2020 contract does expire you can always replace "XBTM20" with the currently running contract.
Notes on futures charts that never expire:
For OKEx, their futures charts are continuous, meaning that the indicator's values won't be accurate past prior expirations. This will be the same for other continuous futures charts such as BTC1!. This is because they are displaying previously expired contracts combined together.
CME Equity Futures Price Limits
Breakers for CME's futures contracts. Should work on CST/EST/UTC charts.
CME says it uses the last 30 seconds of the session to grab a reference price, so I took the open of the last session's candle because it's easier.
Out of session breakers: +/-5%
Limit downs: -7%/-13%/-20%
There are some minor nuances for the later part of the NY session but I don't really care to add that in right now.
Options:
- Input a manual reference price to override the selected price for accuracy.
- Show only the current/last session's limits. This breaks the in session limit down lines.
Live prices:
www.cmegroup.com
Month codes:
www.cmegroup.com
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
It's best to check the last updated reference price to ensure it's correct.
CMEs Window (Beyond Candle)> Find window in CME Exchange
> Yellow Dot = Rising Window
> Yellow Dot = Falling Window
CME Gap Finder - BitcoinOnly for Bitcoin!
This indicator locates weekly gaps created by the CME Futures market for Bitcoin.
As you can see, Bitcoin tends to close the weekly gaps created in the futures market so I thought this could be a very useful tool.
Instead of having to look between multiple charts, this simply overlays the past weeks open and close should a gap appear.
I hope you find this indicator useful!
Cheers!
