Adaptive Machine Learning Trading System [PhenLabs]📊Adaptive ML Trading System
Version: PineScript™v6
📌Description
The Adaptive ML Trading System is a sophisticated machine learning indicator that combines ensemble modeling with advanced technical analysis. This system uses XGBoost, Random Forest, and Neural Network algorithms to generate high-confidence trading signals while incorporating robust risk management features. Traders benefit from objective, data-driven decision-making that adapts to changing market conditions.
🚀Points of Innovation
• Machine Learning Ensemble - Three integrated models (XGBoost, Random Forest, Neural Network)
• Confidence-Based Trading - Only executes trades when ML confidence exceeds threshold
• Dynamic Risk Management - ATR-based stop loss and max drawdown protection
• Adaptive Position Sizing - Volatility-adjusted position sizing with confidence weighting
• Real-Time Performance Metrics - Live tracking of win rate, Sharpe ratio, and performance
• Multi-Timeframe Feature Analysis - Adaptive lookback periods for different market regimes
🔧Core Components
• ML Ensemble Engine - Weighted combination of XGBoost, Random Forest, and Neural Network outputs
• Feature Normalization System - Advanced preprocessing with custom tanh/sigmoid activation
• Risk Management Module - Dynamic position sizing and drawdown protection
• Performance Dashboard - Real-time metrics and risk status monitoring
• Alert System - Comprehensive alert conditions for entries, exits, and risk events
🔥Key Features
• High-confidence ML signals with customizable confidence thresholds
• Multiple trading modes (Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive) for different risk profiles
• Integrated stop loss and risk management with ATR-based calculations
• Real-time performance metrics including win rate and Sharpe ratio
• Comprehensive alert system with entry, exit, and risk management notifications
• Visual confidence bands and threshold indicators for easy signal interpretation
🎨Visualization
• ML Signal Line - Primary signal output ranging from -1 to +1
• Confidence Bands - Visual representation of model confidence levels
• Threshold Lines - Customizable buy/sell threshold levels
• Position Histogram - Current market position visualization
• Performance Tables - Real-time metrics display in customizable positions
📖Usage Guidelines
Model Configuration
• Confidence Threshold: Default 0.55, Range 0.5-0.95 - Minimum confidence for signals
• Model Sensitivity: Default 0.9, Range 0.1-2.0 - Adjusts signal sensitivity
• Ensemble Mode: Conservative/Balanced/Aggressive - Trading style preference
• Signal Threshold: Default 0.55, Range 0.3-0.9 - ML signal threshold for entries
Risk Management
• Position Size %: Default 10%, Range 1-50% - Portfolio percentage per trade
• Max Drawdown %: Default 15%, Range 5-30% - Maximum allowed drawdown
• Stop Loss ATR: Default 2.0, Range 0.5-5.0 - Stop loss in ATR multiples
• Dynamic Sizing: Default true - Volatility-based position adjustment
Display Settings
• Show Signals: Default true - Display entry/exit signals
• Show Threshold Signals: Default true - Display ±0.6 threshold crosses
• Show Confidence Bands: Default true - Display ML confidence levels
• Performance Dashboard: Default true - Show metrics table
✅Best Use Cases
• Swing trading with 1-5 day holding periods
• Trend-following strategies in established trends
• Volatility breakout trading during high-confidence periods
• Risk-adjusted position sizing for portfolio management
• Multi-timeframe confirmation for existing strategies
⚠️Limitations
• Requires sufficient historical data for accurate ML predictions
• May experience low confidence periods in choppy markets
• Performance varies across different asset classes and timeframes
• Not suitable for very short-term scalping strategies
• Requires understanding of basic risk management principles
💡What Makes This Unique
• True machine learning ensemble with multiple model types
• Confidence-based trading rather than simple signal generation
• Integrated risk management with dynamic position sizing
• Real-time performance tracking and metrics
• Adaptive parameters that adjust to market conditions
🔬How It Works
Feature Calculation: Computes 20+ technical features from price/volume data
Feature Normalization: Applies custom normalization for ML compatibility
Ensemble Prediction: Combines XGBoost, Random Forest, and Neural Network outputs
Signal Generation: Produces confidence-weighted trading signals
Risk Management: Applies position sizing and stop loss rules
Execution: Generates alerts and visual signals based on thresholds
💡Note:
This indicator works best on daily and 4-hour timeframes for most assets. Ensure you understand the risk management settings before live trading. The system includes automatic risk-off modes that halt trading during excessive drawdown periods.
Aitrading
AI Breakout Bands (Zeiierman)█ Overview
AI Breakout Bands (Zeiierman) is an adaptive trend and breakout detection system that combines Kalman filtering with advanced K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) smoothing. The result is a smart, self-adjusting band structure that adapts to dynamic market behavior, identifying breakout conditions with precision and visual clarity.
At its core, this indicator estimates price behavior using a two-dimensional Kalman filter (position + velocity), then enhances the smoothing process with a nonlinear, similarity-based KNN filter. This unique blend enables it to handle noisy markets and directional shifts with both speed and stability — providing breakout traders and trend followers a reliable framework to act on.
Whether you're identifying volatility expansions, capturing trend continuations, or spotting early breakout conditions, AI Breakout Bands gives you a mathematically grounded, visually adaptive roadmap of real-time market structure.
█ How It Works
⚪ Kalman Filter Engine
The Kalman filter models price movement as a state system with two components:
Position (price)
Velocity (trend direction)
It recursively updates predictions using real-time price as a noisy observation, balancing responsiveness with smoothness.
Process Noise (Position) controls sensitivity to sudden moves.
Process Noise (Velocity) controls smoothing of directional flow.
Measurement Noise (R) defines how much the filter "trusts" live price data.
This component alone creates a responsive yet stable estimate of the market’s center of gravity.
⚪ Advanced K-Neighbor Smoothing
After the Kalman estimate is computed, the script applies a custom K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) smoother.
Rather than averaging raw values, this method:
Finds K most similar past Kalman values
Weighs them by similarity (inverse of absolute distance)
Produces a smoother that emphasizes structural similarity
This nonlinear approach gives the indicator an AI feature — reacting fast when needed, yet staying calm in consolidation.
█ How to Use
⚪ Trend Recognition
The line color shifts dynamically based on slope direction and breakout confirmation.
Bullish conditions: price above the mid band with positive slope
Bearish conditions: price below the mid band with negative slope
⚪ Breakout Signals
Price breaking above or below the bands may signal momentum acceleration.
Combine with your own volume or momentum confirmation for stronger entries.
Bands adapt to market noise, helping filter out low-quality whipsaws.
█ Settings
Process Noise (Position): Controls Kalman filter’s sensitivity to price changes.
Process Noise (Velocity): Controls smoothing of directional component.
Measurement Noise (R): Defines how much trust is placed in price data.
K-Neighbor Length: Number of historical Kalman values considered for smoothing.
Slope Calculation Window: Number of bars used to compute trend slope of the smoothed Kalman.
Band Lookback (MAE): Rolling period for average absolute error.
Band Multiplier: Multiplies MAE to determine band width.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
AI Trend Navigator [K-Neighbor]█ Overview
In the evolving landscape of trading and investment, the demand for sophisticated and reliable tools is ever-growing. The AI Trend Navigator is an indicator designed to meet this demand, providing valuable insights into market trends and potential future price movements. The AI Trend Navigator indicator is designed to predict market trends using the k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) classifier.
By intelligently analyzing recent price actions and emphasizing similar values, it helps traders to navigate complex market conditions with confidence. It provides an advanced way to analyze trends, offering potentially more accurate predictions compared to simpler trend-following methods.
█ Calculations
KNN Moving Average Calculation: The core of the algorithm is a KNN Moving Average that computes the mean of the 'k' closest values to a target within a specified window size. It does this by iterating through the window, calculating the absolute differences between the target and each value, and then finding the mean of the closest values. The target and value are selected based on user preferences (e.g., using the VWAP or Volatility as a target).
KNN Classifier Function: This function applies the k-nearest neighbor algorithm to classify the price action into positive, negative, or neutral trends. It looks at the nearest 'k' bars, calculates the Euclidean distance between them, and categorizes them based on the relative movement. It then returns the prediction based on the highest count of positive, negative, or neutral categories.
█ How to use
Traders can use this indicator to identify potential trend directions in different markets.
Spotting Trends: Traders can use the KNN Moving Average to identify the underlying trend of an asset. By focusing on the k closest values, this component of the indicator offers a clearer view of the trend direction, filtering out market noise.
Trend Confirmation: The KNN Classifier component can confirm existing trends by predicting the future price direction. By aligning predictions with current trends, traders can gain more confidence in their trading decisions.
█ Settings
PriceValue: This determines the type of price input used for distance calculation in the KNN algorithm.
hl2: Uses the average of the high and low prices.
VWAP: Uses the Volume Weighted Average Price.
VWAP: Uses the Volume Weighted Average Price.
Effect: Changing this input will modify the reference values used in the KNN classification, potentially altering the predictions.
TargetValue: This sets the target variable that the KNN classification will attempt to predict.
Price Action: Uses the moving average of the closing price.
VWAP: Uses the Volume Weighted Average Price.
Volatility: Uses the Average True Range (ATR).
Effect: Selecting different targets will affect what the KNN is trying to predict, altering the nature and intent of the predictions.
Number of Closest Values: Defines how many closest values will be considered when calculating the mean for the KNN Moving Average.
Effect: Increasing this value makes the algorithm consider more nearest neighbors, smoothing the indicator and potentially making it less reactive. Decreasing this value may make the indicator more sensitive but possibly more prone to noise.
Neighbors: This sets the number of neighbors that will be considered for the KNN Classifier part of the algorithm.
Effect: Adjusting the number of neighbors affects the sensitivity and smoothness of the KNN classifier.
Smoothing Period: Defines the smoothing period for the moving average used in the KNN classifier.
Effect: Increasing this value would make the KNN Moving Average smoother, potentially reducing noise. Decreasing it would make the indicator more reactive but possibly more prone to false signals.
█ What is K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) algorithm?
At its core, the K-NN algorithm recognizes patterns within market data and analyzes the relationships and similarities between data points. By considering the 'K' most similar instances (or neighbors) within a dataset, it predicts future price movements based on historical trends. The K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) algorithm is a type of instance-based or non-generalizing learning. While K-NN is considered a relatively simple machine-learning technique, it falls under the AI umbrella.
We can classify the K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) algorithm as a form of artificial intelligence (AI), and here's why:
Machine Learning Component: K-NN is a type of machine learning algorithm, and machine learning is a subset of AI. Machine learning is about building algorithms that allow computers to learn from and make predictions or decisions based on data. Since K-NN falls under this category, it is aligned with the principles of AI.
Instance-Based Learning: K-NN is an instance-based learning algorithm. This means that it makes decisions based on the entire training dataset rather than deriving a discriminative function from the dataset. It looks at the 'K' most similar instances (neighbors) when making a prediction, hence adapting to new information if the dataset changes. This adaptability is a hallmark of intelligent systems.
Pattern Recognition: The core of K-NN's functionality is recognizing patterns within data. It identifies relationships and similarities between data points, something akin to human pattern recognition, a key aspect of intelligence.
Classification and Regression: K-NN can be used for both classification and regression tasks, two fundamental problems in machine learning and AI. The indicator code is used for trend classification, a predictive task that aligns with the goals of AI.
Simplicity Doesn't Exclude AI: While K-NN is often considered a simpler algorithm compared to deep learning models, simplicity does not exclude something from being AI. Many AI systems are built on simple rules and can be combined or scaled to create complex behavior.
No Explicit Model Building: Unlike traditional statistical methods, K-NN does not build an explicit model during training. Instead, it waits until a prediction is required and then looks at the 'K' nearest neighbors from the training data to make that prediction. This lazy learning approach is another aspect of machine learning, part of the broader AI field.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
