Trend-Following & Breakout — Index Quant Strategy (NASDAQ)

📈 Trend-Following & Breakout — Index Quant Strategy (NASDAQ & S&P 500)

Type: Invite-only strategy
Markets: NASDAQ 100 (NAS100 / US100 / NQ), S&P 500 (US500 / SPX), and other major equity indices.
🧠 Concept: Continuous trend model combining EWMAC (trend-following) and Donchian (breakout) signals, scaled by forecast strength and portfolio risk.
⚙️ Execution: Rebalances only on decision-bar closes, using hysteresis and a no-trade band to reduce churn.
📊 Default bias: Long-only — aligned with equity index drift.

🧩 How it works
• EWMAC Trend: Difference between fast and slow EMAs, normalized by an EWMA of absolute returns.
• Donchian Breakout: Distance beyond a 200-bar channel (Strict mode) or relative z-score position within it.
• Forecast combination: Weighted sum of trend and breakout points, clamped to ± capPoints.
• Hysteresis: Prevents quick sign flips near zero forecast.
• Risk scaling: Maps forecast strength to position size using equity × risk budget × ATR-based stop distance.
• Rebalance: Executes only if the required quantity change exceeds the Δqty threshold; can optionally block increases on Sundays (for CFDs).

⚙️ Default parameters
Deployed on NQ / US100 / NAS100 on Daily Timeframe
• Decision timeframe = 360 min (other options from 1 min to 1 week).
• Trend (EWMAC): Fast = 64, Slow = 256, Vol Norm = 32, Weight = 0.8.
• Breakout (Donchian): Length = 200, Mode = Strict, Weight = 0.2.
• Forecast scaling: ptsPerSigma = 1.0, capPoints = 10.
• Risk % per rebalance = 4 % of equity.
• ATR stop: ATR(14) × 1.0.
• No-trade band (Δqty) = 4 units.
• Hysteresis = 2 forecast points.
• Bias = Long-only (Neutral / Long-bias 50 % optional).
• Skip Sunday increases = false (default).

📋 Backtest properties (documented)
• Initial capital = 100 000 USD.
• Commission = 0.20 % per trade.
• Pyramiding = 10.
• Calc on every tick = false.
• Point value = 1 (for NAS100 CFD).
• No financing or slippage modeled.
• If using CFDs, account for overnight funding.
• On futures (NQ / ES), carry is implicit.

📊 Typical behaviour
• Many small scratches, a few large winners.
• Performs best during multi-week / multi-month trends.
• Underperforms in tight or volatile ranges.
• Average hold ≈ 30 – 90 days in historical tests.

💡 Risk and performance guide (illustrative)
Sharpe ≈ 1.25
Sortino ≈ 1.10 – 1.30
Max drawdown ≈ –18 % to –25 %
Annual volatility ≈ 24 – 28 %
CAGR ≈ 50 – 60 % (at 4 % risk)
Edge ratio ≈ 5 (MFE / MAE)
Historical backtests only — past performance does not guarantee future results.

🌍 Intended markets and timeframes
Optimized for NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500; also effective on similar indices (DAX, Dow Jones, FTSE).
Best on Daily or higher timeframes.
Aligns with long-term index drift — suitable for long-bias systematic trend portfolios.

⚠️ Limitations
• Backtests exclude CFD funding costs.
• Trend models will have losing streaks in range-bound markets.
• Designed for experienced traders seeking systematic exposure.

🔑 Requesting access
Send a private TradingView message to [Algorific] with the text:
“Request access to Trend-Following & Breakout — Index Quant Strategy.”
Access is granted only on explicit request.
For further information, see my TradingView Signature.

🆕 Release notes (v1.0)
• Initial release (360 min TF): EWMAC 64/256 + Donchian 200 Strict.
• Risk 4 %, ATR × 1.0, Long-only bias, hysteresis 2 pts, Δqty ≥ 4.
• Developed for NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 indices.
• Implements continuous risk-scaled positioning and no-trade band logic.

🧾 Originality statement
This strategy is original work built entirely from TradingView built-ins (EMA, ATR, Highest, Lowest).
It does not reuse open-source invite-only code.
Any future reuse of open scripts will be done with explicit permission and credit.