OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
업데이트됨 Yield Curve Inversion Monitor
Identifies when the US Treasury Yield Curve inverts (2 and 10 year bond rates).
When they ‘invert’ long-term bonds have a lower interest rate than short-term bonds. In other words, the bond market is pricing in a significant drop in future interest rates (which might be caused by the US Fed fighting off a recession in the future).
In the last 50 years, every time the US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later.
However, once the market peaks, it then drops 37.6% on average, wiping out all those gains and more.
...Looks like 2020 is shaping up to be another prime example.
When they ‘invert’ long-term bonds have a lower interest rate than short-term bonds. In other words, the bond market is pricing in a significant drop in future interest rates (which might be caused by the US Fed fighting off a recession in the future).
In the last 50 years, every time the US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later.
However, once the market peaks, it then drops 37.6% on average, wiping out all those gains and more.
...Looks like 2020 is shaping up to be another prime example.
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면책사항
이 정보와 게시물은 TradingView에서 제공하거나 보증하는 금융, 투자, 거래 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권고 사항을 의미하거나 구성하지 않습니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참고하세요.