Universal Forecaster [SS Premium]

1월 18일

This is the Universal Forecaster as part of the Elite level.

About:

The universal forecast creates autofitted models for most financial instruments using an ATR approach. It will provide a Bullish and Bearish threshold condition, prospective low targets and prospective high targets. It will autofit and no user inputs are required to manually adjust the parameters.

In addition to this, the indicator also has some build in functions to augment its functionality, including:

a) Built in Autoregression Forecaster;
b) Built in ARIMA plotter;
c) Built in Probability Assessor;
d) Ability to plot next day targets and thresholds;
e) Ability to expand targets up to 3 standard deviations from its projected levels;
d) Has the ability to generate models for most to all timeframes (from as low at 5 minutes to as high as yearly)

Functionality:


Off the bat, the indicator will provide you with the conditional levels and immediate target ranges. A break above a conditional level generally means a move to the high range and a break below, a move to the low range.

If a ticker extends beyond the immediate forecasted range, the indicator has the ability to expand the ranges (see example below):



It will do this automatically in response to a range exceedance.

The indicator anchors from the previous day close, which gives it the ability to show you the next day targets and thresholds:



In addition to being able to plot the next day targets, it is also capable of auto generating a probability assessment based on the model it creates:



The indicator provides 2 probability types, momentum probability which uses technicals and z-score probability which uses standard deviation:



It will display the backtest results as well as a break down of the similar cases identified (see image above).

If there are no cases, the indicator will alert you. You can then change the probability type to see if the other one can find cases:


Make sure when you are running the probability assessment, your chart matches the timeframe you are running the assessment for!

The indicator also provides a trade planner to help you ascertain high probability trades based on each unique ticker's behaviour. When toggled on, it will display the various condition possibilities, and the common resulting behaviour:



You can also get shorter timeframe levels, here is an example of hourly levels:



The indicator also works really well with most Crypto.

Here is BTC using weekly levels:



And ADAUSD using monthly levels:



In addition to running an autoregression forecast, you can also run an ARIMA plot directly from the indicator itself and have it plot the bullish or bearish case:

Bullish case:


Bearish case:



The indicator is intended as a stand-alone indicator and can be used as its own strategy. The strategy is fairly straight forward, a break and hold of the bullish conditional, long to the high targets, inverse for a break of the bearish.

Key take-aways and tips:

• Can be used on all timeframes;
  
• When running probabilities, please ensure that you are on the chart you are running the probabilities for. So if you are running for the next day, please make sure you are on the daily timeframe.
  
• The ARIMA and Autoregression will default to whichever timeframe you are on.
  

And that is the indicator!
Let me know your questions below and enjoy!

1월 19일

릴리즈 노트

Updated to include real time and prospective levels.
Before, the indicator could only default to "prospective levels". However, now you have the option of using real-time.

What's the difference between real time and prospective?

Prospective will anchor from the previous day close. This allows it to forecast the next day.
However, real time will anchor it by the current day open. Here is an example of prospective vs real time:

Prospective:


Real-time:


The real time will give you the more traditional RPPI look.
Either way, both versions work!

Leave your questions below and safe trades!

1월 20일

릴리즈 노트

Error fix

1월 27일

릴리즈 노트

I have now modified the UF to be compatible with Heikin Ashi Candles! And any other non-traditional candle you would like.

6월 15일

릴리즈 노트

A third type of model has been added to the UF, the generic ATR forecasting ability. SO now you have the ability to choose between the Prospective levels (calculated based on the previous day close), the real time (calculated based on the trading Strandard Deviation) and the ATR (using a general ATR function). The image above shows the ATR levels for demonstration purposes.

As well, labels for the bull and bear threshold have been added.

Thanks everyone and safe trades!