Z-Score Retracement Indicator

2023년 6월 11일

Releasing the Z-Score Retracement Indicator

What it does:

The Z-Score retracement indicator operates similarly to Fibonacci retracements. It calculates the average, standard deviation and Z-Scores of a user defined period and will plot out the various Standard Deviation levels and price targets based on the period under analysis.

It will visually display the distance from the mean and which price targets correspond to which standard deviation. It is intended to aid traders in determining where the mean is and to calculate the probability of price targets and the probability of a regression to the mean.

How do you use it?

When you launch the indicator, it will ask you to identify the start period. I always try to identify periods where the most recent uptrend or downtrend has started, and then start the analysis from that point. When you plot it, the indicator will display the current strength of the trend in the same way that a regression or log-linear regression indicator would, by displaying the Pearson Correlation Coefficient:



Unlike with linear regression or log-linear regression, you don't necessarily need to have a strong up or downtrend to use the indicator, however it is ideal to find an area with a clear trend.

From there, you can clearly see the standard deviation zones:



The indicator will also display the current Standard Deviation of the last close price.

The centre line (a Z-Score of 0) corresponds to absolute neutrality and would be a regression to the mean. The price target for this area is also listed.

If you want to calculate the price of a specific Standard Deviation, you can! Launch the settings and select the input you would like:



Simply select whether you want to convert a Standard Deviation Z-Score to price or price to Z-Score. Then input the variable into the appropriate field. The indicator will then display the results in a table at the top right of the chart:



In the above image, you can see that a Z-Score of 0 (indicating absolute neutrality) on QQQ is equivalent to a price of 299.

Calculating Probability:

You can calculate probability by reference a Z-Score Table. I have discussed this in my previous Z-Score based indicators, but essentially, the rule of thumb is this:
Anything over + 2 standard deviations corresponds with roughly less than a 5 to 10% chance of continuation higher. I encourage you to check out the writeup on my Z-Score Probability Indicator for more information on the price use of Z-Score for probability determinations.

Concluding remarks:

And that is the indicator! Its pretty straight forward and its intended to be an added tool for regression and log-linear regression based traders to help visualize the actual distance from the mean a ticker is currently trading at.

Another thing to keep in mind is you can use this on the very small time frames as well. I have used this for day trading on the 5 and 1 minute timeframe to determine "regressions to the mean" on a much smaller level. Like here:




That's the indicator!

Hope you enjoy, leave your questions, comments and suggestions below, safe trades everyone!

2023년 7월 9일

릴리즈 노트

Pushing this update based on feedback.

This update will permit you to toggle off and on the labels and price levels if you want to overlay this indicator will other retracements.