Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Bands

2024년 12월 28일

Overview
This indicator displays logarithmic regression bands for Bitcoin. Logarithmic regression is a statistical method used to model data where growth slows down over time. I initially created these bands in 2019 using a spreadsheet, and later coded them in TradingView in 2021. Over time, the bands proved effective at capturing Bitcoin's bull market peaks and bear market lows. In 2024, I decided to share this indicator because I believe these logarithmic regression bands offer the best fit for the Bitcoin chart.


How It Works
The logarithmic regression lines are fitted to the Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart using two key factors: the 'a' factor (slope) and the 'b' factor (intercept). The two lines in the upper and lower bands share the same 'a' factor, but I adjust the 'b' factor by 0.2 to more accurately capture the bull market peaks and bear market lows. The formula for logaritmic regression is 10^((a * ln) - b).


How to Use the Logarithmic Regression Bands
1. Lower Band (Support Band):
The two lines in the lower band create a potential support area for Bitcoin’s price. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has always found its lows within this band during past market cycles. When the price is within the lower band, it suggests that Bitcoin is undervalued and could be set for a rebound.
2. Upper Band (Resistance Band):
The two lines in the upper band create a potential resistance area for Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin has consistently reached its highs in this band during previous market cycles. If the price is within the upper band, it indicates that Bitcoin is overvalued, and a potential price correction may be imminent.


Use Cases
- Price Bottoming:
Bitcoin tends to bottom out at the lower band before entering a prolonged bull market or a period of sideways movement.
- Price Topping:
In reverse, Bitcoin tends to top out at the upper band before entering a bear market phase.
- Profitable Strategy:
Buying at the lower band and selling at the upper band can be a profitable trading strategy, as these bands often indicate key price levels for Bitcoin’s market cycles.