r - g Oscillator | Norm + Sigma-Bands

The r–g Oscillator measures the macro-liquidity regime by tracking the gap between real interest rates (r) and nominal GDP growth (g).
It approximates real rate pressure using the 10-Year Treasury yield minus the 5-Year/5-Year forward inflation expectation, and compares that to either Real or Nominal U.S. GDP YoY growth.

Green (g > r): Expansionary backdrop — growth outpaces real yields; liquidity tailwinds.

Red (r > g): Contractionary backdrop — real rates restrictive; liquidity headwinds.

The σ-bands (standard-deviation envelopes) highlight statistically extreme expansions or contractions in the r–g spread.

The “sweet-spot” shading marks moments when r–g breaks strongly above/below zero — early-cycle thrusts or late-cycle stress.

Optional normalization rescales r–g between –1 and +1 to compare across cycles.

Use:
Track shifts in the macro tide rather than short-term waves. Sustained green phases typically align with bull-market environments; red phases often coincide with tightening cycles or recessions. Combine with faster liquidity or breadth measures (e.g., WRESBAL ROC) for tactical confirmation.