Mongoose Capital: Oil Regime + Geo Risk Integration

Mongoose Capital — Oil Regime + Geo Risk Integration
Overview

Oil Regime + Geo Risk Integration is a macro-aware regime classification framework designed to contextualize crude oil price action through curve structure, volatility state, demand pressure, trend alignment, and macro tightness.

Rather than forecasting price, this indicator answers a more important question for energy traders:

“What type of oil market are we currently trading in?”

The output is a clear regime state with an execution playbook, allowing traders to adapt tactics to conditions instead of forcing the same strategy across incompatible environments.

What This Indicator Does

This script classifies the oil market into distinct regimes by evaluating:

Curve structure (tight vs loose)

Volatility state (expanding vs suppressed)

Demand strength

Trend direction

Macro tightness or ease

Geopolitical / risk sensitivity layer

Each bar resolves into a single regime, paired with:

A readable regime label

A background state

A recommended execution posture

Regime Framework (Conceptual)

The regime engine resolves into one of the following high-level environments:

Risk-Off / Defensive

Weak demand

Loose curve

Downtrend

Macro stress present
→ Favor defense, mean reversion, or standing aside

Volatility Expansion / Event Risk

Elevated volatility

Tightening structure
→ Favor tactical trades, reduced size, wider stops

Trend Expansion / Supply-Driven

Strong demand

Tight curve

Trend confirmation
→ Favor continuation, breakouts, directional exposure

Neutral / Transitional

Mixed signals

Low alignment
→ Patience required, confirmation preferred

Alignment Confidence

The indicator also computes an alignment score, reflecting how many core components agree:

Curve

Volatility

Demand

Macro state

Higher alignment implies greater regime confidence. Lower alignment signals transition risk and elevated false moves.

How to Use

Apply the indicator to WTI / CL or related oil instruments.

Identify the current regime label and background state.

Adjust execution behavior accordingly:

Strategy selection

Position sizing

Holding period

Risk tolerance

This tool is most effective when paired with:

Structure-based trading

Order flow tools

Execution overlays (such as the WTI Execution Overlay)

What This Indicator Is

A market context engine

A regime classification system

A macro-aware execution guide

What This Indicator Is Not

Not a buy/sell signal

Not predictive

Not a standalone trading system

Intended Audience

Energy and futures traders

Macro-focused discretionary traders

Traders who adapt strategy based on regime rather than fixed rules

This script assumes the user already understands basic market structure and risk management.

Credits

Developed by Mongoose Labs, the research arm of Mongoose Capital, focused on:

Regime-based market structure

Macro-integrated execution logic

Institutional-style trading frameworks

Provided strictly for educational and analytical use.

Disclaimer

This indicator does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures and leveraged instruments involves substantial risk. Past regime explanations do not guarantee future outcomes. Use at your own discretion.

Internal note (not for publishing):

This pairs perfectly with:

WTI Execution Overlay

Oil Volatility Compression Monitor

Energy Macro Dashboard