Institutional Orderflow - CT

4시간 전

Institutional Orderflow - CT

Overview
This indicator translates VIX futures dynamics into equity price implications, revealing institutional hedging flows and vol pricing's gravitational pull on price, where overpriced volatility signals compression and upside support, while underpriced levels flag expansion risks and downside pressure.

It maps VX deviations to equity levels via historical correlations, anchored by the Bull Bear Bias (BBB), a contango midpoint concept from Matt Cowart at Rocketscooter that sets VX1! fair value as the midpoint between front-month (VX1!) and second-month (VX2!) contracts at monthly rolls.

VX itself quantifies the distribution of options strikes around the underlying price over time, essentially the market's priced-in dispersion of potential outcomes, tied to expiration distance, with volatility inversely proportional to liquidity (fewer transactions in high-vol environments reduce flow and amplify moves).


Interpretation
- VX1! (Front-Month VIX Futures): Gauges 30-day (±7 days, or 23-37 days to expiration) SPX implied volatility via forward options pricing, capturing medium-term hedging landscapes. Dealers, managing gamma exposure from longer-dated options, hedge by delta-adjusting underlying positions; rising VX1! reflects widening strike distributions (higher fear), prompting protective equity sales that pressure prices; falls toward BBB indicate narrowing distributions (calm), easing hedges and fostering liquidity-driven rallies as transaction frequency rises.

- VIX1D (1-Day Expected Volatility): Focuses on ultra-short-dated (e.g., 0DTE) P.M.-settled options, measuring immediate strike clustering and gamma intensity near expiration. Closer-dated options heighten dealer sensitivity; spikes signal concentrated hedging bursts, eroding liquidity and fueling intraday volatility with sharp price reversals; declines promote hedging unwind, boosting transaction flow and short-term stability.

- VVIX (Volatility of VIX): Assesses the implied volatility of VIX options (the "vol of vol"), revealing uncertainty in the vol forecast itself. Elevated VVIX denotes aggressive dealer repositioning across VIX strikes, forecasting erratic VX swings and reduced equity liquidity; subdued levels imply stable distributions, enhancing flow and trend persistence. BBB projections adjust dynamically: low VVIX (<80) constrains overshoots for reversion trades, while high (>110) expands them amid panic hedging.

- BBB Relationship: VX1! above BBB highlights over-distributed (expensive) vol, where dealers unwind hedges as time decays, inverting low liquidity into upside momentum; below BBB warns of under-distributed (cheap) vol, with sparse transactions amplifying expansion risks. Shorter tenors (VIX1D) drive tactical, gamma-fueled price action, contrasting VX1!'s strategic horizon, with VVIX scaling the intensity.


Key Features
- Target Line (Anchored): Locks at swing violations as enduring support (green, below price) or resistance (red, above), fusing BBB's vol equilibrium with technical anchors to spotlight dealer hedge confluences in strike distributions.

- Magnet Line (Dynamic): Mirrors live VX1!/BBB shifts, plotting "implied fair" price (blue above for unwind pull; orange below for hedge drag), linking term structure evolution to liquidity-driven gravity.

- Fear Scenario Line: Forecasts price erosion from a 10%+ VX1! surge above BBB, calibrated by VVIX for vol-of-vol amplification, defining dealer panic thresholds where low-liquidity spikes cascade.

- Overshoot Projection: Predicts interim extensions past targets, modulated by VIX1D (near-term gamma flares) and VVIX (distribution uncertainty), relating expiration proximity to heightened swings before time-decay reversion.

- Candle Coloring and SMA Trends: Tracks near-term VX1!/VVIX/VIX1D flows via gradient-colored candles (strong/medium/weak bullish/bearish based on SMA deviations), visualizing realtime options dynamics; green shades signal hedging unwind (rising liquidity, upside bias), red indicates expansion (dealer sales, downside drag). Recommended: VX1! Trend for long-term confluences (Tue-Thu swings); VIX1D Trend or VX1! + VIX1D for short-term (Mon/Fri scalps); add VVIX for regime shifts.

- Swing Boxes: Denote aggressive VX spikes (fear hedging bets) or de-escalations (position realizations), highlighting gamma-driven reversals where dealers rebalance, often preceding liquidity surges or drains in price action.

- Table Metrics: Condenses VX1!/BBB skew, VVIX regimes, VIX1D pulses, and contango cues, correlating options tenor gradients to price flow and hedging mechanics.

4시간 전

릴리즈 노트

Temporary bug fix - default show data, false