PROTECTED SOURCE SCRIPT
Shock!

The Shock Indicator is a volatility-banding model that forecasts price ranges with a dynamically widening/shrinking system. Fundamentally, it uses an exponentially weighted moving average of returns, adjusting for time-of-day patterns, to estimate a baseline volatility (i.e. The ‘prior’ in Bayesian theory). It detects jumps by comparing realized variance with “bipower variation”, temporarily widening the bands when shocks occur, and decaying the width of the bands as the shock subsides. In order to keep the coverage as calibrated and honest as possible, it continuously checks how often each bar’s closing prices stay inside the predicted bands, and adapts tail multipliers using a “scoring” system, avoiding the “cheat” of inflating bands everywhere to include as many candles as possible. It also uses a simple decaying mechanism to shrink bands exponentially faster when realized ranges are calm, preventing long periods of unjustified overshooting. In practice, this design keeps the empirical coverage probability close to a user-selected target. By default, the target is set to 95%. Across various 5 minute, 10 minute, 15 minute, and 30 minute timeframes on assets such as USDJPY, ES and NQ Futures, QQQ, NVDA, TSLA, BTCUSD, the empirical coverage consistently stays within -10%/+4% of the default 95% target coverage, while staying extremely responsive to shocks.
At the open of each candle, the range is drawn. The range is “frozen” the moment it is drawn, meaning it cannot utilize “cheating” methods such as repainting or future-looking to artificially inflate the accuracy and calibration. The indicator then tracks how accurate and well-calibrated it was for that given candle, optimizing the bands for future bars.
At the open of each candle, the range is drawn. The range is “frozen” the moment it is drawn, meaning it cannot utilize “cheating” methods such as repainting or future-looking to artificially inflate the accuracy and calibration. The indicator then tracks how accurate and well-calibrated it was for that given candle, optimizing the bands for future bars.
보호된 스크립트입니다
이 스크립트는 비공개 소스로 게시됩니다. 하지만 제한 없이 자유롭게 사용할 수 있습니다 — 여기에서 자세히 알아보기.
면책사항
이 정보와 게시물은 TradingView에서 제공하거나 보증하는 금융, 투자, 거래 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권고 사항을 의미하거나 구성하지 않습니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참고하세요.
보호된 스크립트입니다
이 스크립트는 비공개 소스로 게시됩니다. 하지만 제한 없이 자유롭게 사용할 수 있습니다 — 여기에서 자세히 알아보기.
면책사항
이 정보와 게시물은 TradingView에서 제공하거나 보증하는 금융, 투자, 거래 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권고 사항을 의미하거나 구성하지 않습니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참고하세요.