Abz US Real rates

2023년 9월 20일

This indicator shows Fed Funds Rate vs US inflation. It also shows the US 10 year bond yield and provides a color indication that aims to indicate if this is a period where owning TLT is a good idea or not. It is not investment advice and it is only aiming to indicate whether the trend is supportive or not for long dated US bonds in comparison with short dated treasury bills and versus inflation.

Recessions: Recessions are indicated by a grey background.

Yield inversion: Periods where the Fed Funds Rate is above the US 10 year bond yield are shown as a maroon background and frequently are macro indicators of an upcoming recession. Like other macro signals, this can't be relied upon as a timing tool.

This is intended to be used as an indictor on a long term chart. Minimum would be weekly but could be even more valid to focus on a chart with monthly candles.