BTC and ETH Long strategy - version 2

2020년 11월 23일

I wrote my first article in May 2020. See below

BTC and ETH Long strategy - version1

After 6 months, it is now time to check the result of my script for the last 6 months.

XBTUSD (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +78% in 4 trades
ETHXBT (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +21% in 9 trades
ETHUSD (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +90% in 6 trades

Using the signals from this strategy to trade manually has shown that this was a bit frustrating because of the low rate of winning trades.
If you have to enter 100 trades and see 75% of them failing and 25% winning, this is frustrating. For sure the strategy makes good money but it is difficult to hold this mentality.
So, I have reviewed and modified it to get a higher winning rate.
After few days of work, tests and validation, I managed to get a wining rate close to 60%.
The key element was also to decrease the number of trades by using a higher time frame. (4H candles instead of 2H candles).

- Entry in position is based on
MACD, EMA (20), SMA (100), SMA (200) moving up
AND EMA (20) > SMA (100)
AND SMA (100) > SMA (200)

- Exit the position if: Stoploss is reached OR EMA (20) crossUnder SMA (100)

The goal of this new script is to be able to follow the signals manually and only make few trades per years.

I have also validated it against some other altcoins where some are giving very good results.

Here are some results for 2020 (from 01/01/2020 until now (22/11/2020). Those results are the one I get when using 4H candles.
ETH/USD: +144% in 8 trades.
BTC/USD: +120% in 7 trades.
ETH/BTC: +33% in 9 trades.
ICX/USD: +123% in 10 trades.
LINK/USD: +155% in 11 trades.
MLN/USD: +388% in 8 trades.
ADA/USD: +180% in 7 trades.
LINK/BTC: +97% in 10 trades.



The best is that above results are without considering compound effect. If you re-invest all gains done in each new trade, this will give you the below results :)

ETH/USD: +189% in 8 trades.
BTC/USD: +260% in 7 trades.
ETH/BTC: +29% in 9 trades.
ICX/USD: +112% in 10 trades.
LINK/USD: +222% in 11 trades.
MLN/USD: +793% in 8 trades.
ADA/USD: +319% in 7 trades.
LINK/BTC: +103% in 10 trades.

As you can see, the results are good and the number of trades for 11 months is not big, which allows the trader to place orders manually.

But still, I'm lazy :), so, I have also coded this strategy in HaasScript language which allows you to automate this strategy using the HaasOnline software specialized in automated crypto trading.

I hope that this strategy will give you ideas or will be the starting point for your own strategy.

Let me know if you need more details.