Alt Season vs USDT Flow Dashboard

What the script tells you (the signals)

It builds four “alt vs stables” lenses and colors the background when they agree.

ALT ex-ETH / STABLES (TOTAL3 / (USDT+USDC+DAI))

Think: “How much alt cap per $1 of dry-powder stables?”

Bullish when price is above its 200-day SMA and rising → risk appetite expanding toward smaller alts.

ALT Share of Risk-On ((TOTAL − STABLES − BTC − ETH) / (TOTAL − STABLES))

Of the non-stable crypto pie, how much is flowing to ex-BTC/ETH alts?

Uptrend = broadening alt participation (late-early to mid alt-season behavior).

Dominance Spread ((TOTAL3 / TOTAL) − (STABLES / TOTAL))

Alts’ share minus stables’ share.

Widening spread means stables are being converted into alts (not just into BTC).

Flow Ratio ROC(TOTAL3, N) / ROC(STABLES, N) (default N=30 days)

Compares alts’ growth rate to stable supply growth.

> 1 and sustained → alts expanding faster than new “dry powder” is appearing.

The background color (“regime”)

Green (ALT-on) when all three conditions align:

ALT/Stable > its SMA

Dominance Spread > its SMA

Flow Ratio > 1

Red (ALT-off) when the opposite holds.

No color = mixed/chop.

How to read it (quick playbook)

Early alt-season tell:

BTC.D starts to slip, total market cap (TOTAL) rising.

ALT/Stable breaks above its 200-SMA and stays there.

Dominance Spread climbs (alts gaining share, stables losing share).

Flow Ratio > 1 for a few weeks.

Maturing phase: ALT Share of Risk-On rises (money broadens from ETH/L1s → mid/small caps).

Exhaustion/false start: Flow Ratio dips < 1 or ALT/Stable loses the 200-SMA while BTC.D stabilizes or rises.

Practical tips

Timeframes: Make calls on 1D. Use 1W to avoid whipsaw; use 4H only for entries once the 1D regime is green.

Smoothing: If you see noisy spikes from market-cap revisions, add a light smoother (e.g., 7D SMA on the plotted lines).

Parameters:

Try ROC length 21–45 days.

Try SMA 150–250 days (200 is a good middle).

Confluence: Keep BTC.D and ETH.D in another pane. Best alt windows: BTC.D trending down, ETH.D flat-to-up initially, then ETH.D flattens as TOTAL3 momentum spreads to mid/small caps.

Risk checks: If USDT.D/USDC.D (stable dominance) spike up while your signals are green, that’s a caution flag (capital retreating to stables).