TARVIS Labs - Bitcoin Macro Bottom/Top Signals

2022년 8월 31일

SCRIPT DESCRIPTION

This is a script specifically written to help provide indicators from a macro view. This script is best run on the 1 day interval on Bitstamp's BTCUSD chart. It helps indicate when to accumulate bitcoin, and when its in a bull run when there are local tops, strong top warnings, and a signal to exit a bull run. This is described further below.

If you don't have interest in trading on the way to the top I suggest turning off the following indicators in the settings of the indicator:
- Opportunity To Buy Back In Indicator
- Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator


ACCUMULATION ZONE INDICATOR - LIGHT GREEN

Description
When we look at the history of Bitcoin every bottom has crossed below the 100 week EMA. Once it does its accompanied by hash ribbon cross with miner capitulation. After that is the prime time to accumulate as theres a clearer signal the bottom is in. Specifically, a signal to look for is the 14 day MACD/signal cross and the 14 day MACD continuing to stay above the signal until the price returns above the 100 week EMA. This is prime accumulation territory.

Strategy for Usage
A good strategy to use when accumulating the bottom is dollar-cost averaging over a 30 day period. The accumulation zone can last longer than 30 days but 30 days is a good range of time to DCA.

STRONG BUY IN ACCUMULATION ZONE INDICATOR - DARK GREEN

Description
We can add to the bottoming signal by looking for post-downtrend reversals inside the bottoming signal. We do this by using a 9/19 daily cross.

Strategy for Usage
These post-downtrend reversals can potentially provide better targeted days for accumulation than the broader bottoming signal and can be used to add more on that day than on an average day for the dollar cost average strategy. Say for example, use 1/3 of funds on these days rather than 1/30th.

OPPORTUNITY TO BUY BACK IN INDICATOR - BLUE

Description
When the 1d 18 EMA > 1d 63 EMA and the 12/52 1d crosses. These together provide good buy opportunities to buy bitcoin.

Strategy for Usage
If you happen to find yourself out of the market from your own TA or a trade, this signal can provide a buy opportunity to reenter the market if you're out of it.

BULL RUN LOCAL TOP INDICATOR - ORANGE

Description
We will similarly use the 100 week EMA to determine trend reversal into a bull run. When we see the 100 week EMA uptrending, we can begin to look for local tops using the 9/19 daily MACD/signal bearish cross along with the 12 EMA having a negative slope, which could be the beginning signal for a local top.

Strategy for Usage
This is a rather light indicator, but can be used in tandem with your own technical analysis to determine if you want to reenter after you exit from its signal.

LOCAL TOP NEAR BULL RUN TOP INDICATOR - RED

Description
When the 100 week EMA is in an uptrend we can look for significant loss of momentum in order to determine if a local top is in near a bull run top. Similar to the Bull Run Local Top Indicator, this strategy uses a MACD/signal cross but instead uses the 30/65 day EMAs.

Strategy for Usage
Ideally the right strategy to use here is to exit the market when this indicator starts. When the indicator ends if the "End of Bull Run Indicator" is not showing on the chart you can buy back into the market.

TOP IS LIKELY IN INDICATOR

Description
When the 100 week EMA is in a very strong uptrend and the 9/19 weekly MACD/signal bearish cross occurs, and the 63 EMA begins to downtrend.

Strategy for Usage
This signal typically accompanies the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" therefore if you're following the strategy you would likely already be out of the market, but if you're not and this signal fires its a strong signal the top is in and we're likely going to start seeing a strong retrace. This is typically right before we see the "End of Bull Run Indicator". There is only one occurrence where it wasn't followed by a large drop & the "End of Bull Run Indicator" and that was in the 2017 bull run where there were many strong retracements post local top. The likelihood we see that again is low, but if it were to happen you can buy back into the market when the "Top is Likely In Indicator" and the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" are not firing.

TOP IS LIKELY IN INDICATOR

Description
When the 100 week EMA is in a strong uptrend and the 9/19 weekly MACD/signal bearish cross occurs, and the 63 EMA begins to downtrend.

Strategy for Usage
This signal typically accompanies the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" therefore if you're following the strategy you would likely already be out of the market, but if you're not and this signal fires its a strong signal the top is in and we're likely going to start seeing a strong retrace. This is typically right before we see the "End of Bull Run Indicator". There is only one occurrence where it wasn't followed by a large drop & the "End of Bull Run Indicator" and that was in the 2017 bull run where there were many strong retracements post local top. The likelihood we see that again is low, but if it were to happen you can buy back into the market when the "Top is Likely In Indicator" and the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" are not firing.

END OF BULL RUN INDICATOR

Description
When the 100 week EMA is in an uptrend and the 1d 18 EMA crosses the 1d 63 EMA.

Strategy for Usage
When the 100 week EMA is a strong uptrend and the 18/63 cross occurs the top is very likely in. It has occurred in every bull run top leading to the bear market.