Bitfinex Bitcoin Bullishness

2018년 4월 10일

Based on contrary opinion in futures, I've adjusted this to Bitcoin, more thoroughly Bitfinex margin longs & shorts. Those unfamiliar with the concept, contrary opinion illustrates the psychological sentiment in the market by determining the degree of bullishness or bearishness among participants in the market.

The principle holds that when the majority of people agree on anything, they are generally wrong, so following the principle you would analyse and look to take the other side of the trades.

Consider this, once the market is extremely bullish, all bulls have already entered the market to an extent that one can't commit any more funds to the position. Even though Bitfinex margin positions are not like future trading, that every short must have someone taking the long side, one should understand that the majority of people do not make money on the market, so whenever this indicator goes too low or too high, one should look for a trend reversal.

This indicator is in the range of 0 to 1 and the neutral position for a "healthy" market is 0.55ish. Some adjustments should probably be made according to the cryptocurrency markets and I might add this in the future updates, but as of now it's a good indicator for forecasts and to get a bigger picture on a timeframe of 1 DAY or longer charts.

The base of the indicator is simple, amount of longs divided by the sum of shorts and longs.

Also you can see, how only now, 10th of April, we are hitting new lows in the bearishness of the market.