OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
BTCUSD Momentum After Abnormal Days

This indicator identifies abnormal days in the Bitcoin market (BTCUSD) based on daily returns exceeding specific thresholds defined by a statistical approach. It is inspired by the findings of Caporale and Plastun (2020), who analyzed the cryptocurrency market's inefficiencies and identified exploitable patterns, particularly around abnormal returns.
Key Concept:
Abnormal Days:
Days where the daily return significantly deviates (positively or negatively) from the historical average.
Positive abnormal days: Returns exceed the mean return plus k times the standard deviation.
Negative abnormal days: Returns fall below the mean return minus k times the standard deviation.
Momentum Effect:
As described in the academic paper, on abnormal days, prices tend to move in the direction of the abnormal return until the end of the trading day, creating momentum effects. This can be leveraged by traders for profit opportunities.
How It Works:
Calculation:
The script calculates the daily return as the percentage difference between the open and close prices. It then derives the mean and standard deviation of returns over a configurable lookback period.
Thresholds:
The script dynamically computes upper and lower thresholds for abnormal days using the mean and standard deviation. Days exceeding these thresholds are flagged as abnormal.
Visualization:
The mean return and thresholds are plotted as dynamic lines.
Abnormal days are visually highlighted with transparent green (positive) or red (negative) backgrounds on the chart.
References:
This indicator is based on the methodology discussed in "Momentum Effects in the Cryptocurrency Market After One-Day Abnormal Returns" by Caporale and Plastun (2020). Their research demonstrates that hourly returns during abnormal days exhibit a strong momentum effect, moving in the same direction as the abnormal return. This behavior contradicts the efficient market hypothesis and suggests profitable trading opportunities.
"Prices tend to move in the direction of abnormal returns till the end of the day, which implies the existence of a momentum effect on that day giving rise to exploitable profit opportunities" (Caporale & Plastun, 2020).
Key Concept:
Abnormal Days:
Days where the daily return significantly deviates (positively or negatively) from the historical average.
Positive abnormal days: Returns exceed the mean return plus k times the standard deviation.
Negative abnormal days: Returns fall below the mean return minus k times the standard deviation.
Momentum Effect:
As described in the academic paper, on abnormal days, prices tend to move in the direction of the abnormal return until the end of the trading day, creating momentum effects. This can be leveraged by traders for profit opportunities.
How It Works:
Calculation:
The script calculates the daily return as the percentage difference between the open and close prices. It then derives the mean and standard deviation of returns over a configurable lookback period.
Thresholds:
The script dynamically computes upper and lower thresholds for abnormal days using the mean and standard deviation. Days exceeding these thresholds are flagged as abnormal.
Visualization:
The mean return and thresholds are plotted as dynamic lines.
Abnormal days are visually highlighted with transparent green (positive) or red (negative) backgrounds on the chart.
References:
This indicator is based on the methodology discussed in "Momentum Effects in the Cryptocurrency Market After One-Day Abnormal Returns" by Caporale and Plastun (2020). Their research demonstrates that hourly returns during abnormal days exhibit a strong momentum effect, moving in the same direction as the abnormal return. This behavior contradicts the efficient market hypothesis and suggests profitable trading opportunities.
"Prices tend to move in the direction of abnormal returns till the end of the day, which implies the existence of a momentum effect on that day giving rise to exploitable profit opportunities" (Caporale & Plastun, 2020).
오픈 소스 스크립트
진정한 트레이딩뷰 정신에 따라 이 스크립트 작성자는 트레이더가 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 오픈소스로 공개했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 무료로 사용할 수 있지만 코드를 다시 게시할 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
Where others speculate, we systematize.
edgetools.org
edgetools.org
면책사항
이 정보와 게시물은 TradingView에서 제공하거나 보증하는 금융, 투자, 거래 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권고 사항을 의미하거나 구성하지 않습니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참고하세요.
오픈 소스 스크립트
진정한 트레이딩뷰 정신에 따라 이 스크립트 작성자는 트레이더가 기능을 검토하고 검증할 수 있도록 오픈소스로 공개했습니다. 작성자에게 찬사를 보냅니다! 무료로 사용할 수 있지만 코드를 다시 게시할 경우 하우스 룰이 적용된다는 점을 기억하세요.
Where others speculate, we systematize.
edgetools.org
edgetools.org
면책사항
이 정보와 게시물은 TradingView에서 제공하거나 보증하는 금융, 투자, 거래 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권고 사항을 의미하거나 구성하지 않습니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참고하세요.