Expectation Breakers [QuantVue]

7월 5일

In technical analysis, an "Expectation Breaker" refers to a market event where price action defies typical patterns and anticipated movements, signaling potential shifts in market sentiment and direction.

This indicator looks to take advantage of these opportunities by identifying 2 types of Expectation Breakers: Downside Reversal Buybacks and Upside Reversal Sellbacks.

Downside Reversal
A downside reversals occur when a stock reaches a new high for the user defined lookback period (65 bars by default), and then experiences a larger-than-average drop and closes near its lows. This usually indicates that the market has overextended itself. The expectation is that there will be 2-3 bars of significant selling, following the downside reversal.



However, a notable sign of strength is if the stock rebounds and closes above the downside reversal bar's high within 1-3 bars. This is known as a Downside Reversal Buyback. A rapid recovery following a downside reversal is a powerful bullish indicator, breaking the expectation of lower prices. The quicker price recovers from a downside reversal, the more meaningful it is. Such a swift rebound suggests that the market's strength was underestimated, as downside reversals typically signal a short-term decline.



Upside Reversal
An upside reversal occurs when a stock reaches a new low for the user-defined lookback period (65 bars by default), and then experiences a larger-than-average rise and closes near its highs. This usually indicates that the market has overextended itself to the downside. The expectation is that there will be 2-3 bars of significant buying, following the upside reversal.



However, a notable sign of weakness is if the stock falls back and closes below the upside reversal bar's low within 1-3 bars. This is known as a Upside Reversal Sellback. A rapid fallback following an upside reversal is a powerful bearish indicator, breaking the expectation of higher prices. The quicker price falls back from an upside reversal, the more meaningful it is. Such a swift fallback suggests that the market's weakness was underestimated, as upside reversals typically signal a short-term rally.



The Expectation Breakers indicator identifies these opportunities by first identifying new highs and lows within a defined lookback period. It then compares the true range (TR), average true range (ATR), and closing range to confirm the significance of these reversals. The use of TR and ATR ensures that the reversals are substantial enough to indicate a genuine shift in market sentiment, helping to identify when price action breaks expectations.

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