occ3

2023년 1월 20일

aka weighted fair price

The ultimate price source for all your stuff, unless you go completely nuts.
The ultimate way to build line charts & do pattern trading, unless you go completely nuts.

Why occ3?
You need a one-point estimate for every bar, a typical price of every bar aye? But then you see that every bar has a different distribution of prices. You can drop a stat test on every bar and pick median, mean, or whatever. But that's still prone to error (imagine borderline cases).

Instead, you can transform the task into a geometric one and say, "I wanna find the center of mass of all dem ticks within a particular interval (a day, a week, a century)". But lol ofc you won't do it, so lets's estimate it:
1) a straight line from Open to Close more/less estimates a regression line if you woulda dropped regression on all the ticks within a given interval;
2) centroid always lies on regression line, so it's always in between the endpoints of regression line. So that's why (open + close) /2;
3) Then, you remember that sequence matters, + generally the volume is higher near the close, so...;
4) Voila, (open + close + close) / 3

Why "fair" price?
Take a daily bar:
1) High & low were the best prices to sell & buy;
2) Opening & closing auctions had acceptable prices, in exchange for the the biggest potential to transact serious volume;
3) "Fair" price, logically, is somewhere in between the acceptable prices;
4) Market is fractal => the same principles propagate everywhere;
4) No, POCs and VPOCs don't make much sense as fair prices.

Nothing else to say, really advise to use it as a line chart if you trade price patterns.