Buffett Valuation Indicator [TradeDots]

7월 22일

The Buffett Valuation Indicator (also known as the Buffett Index or Buffett Ratio) measures the ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP.

This indicator helps determine whether the valuation changes in US stocks are justified by the GDP level.

For example, the ratio is calculated based on the standard deviations from the historical trend line. If the value exceeds +2 standard deviations, it suggests that the stock market is overvalued relative to GDP, and vice versa.

This "Buffett Valuation Indicator" is an enhanced version of the original indicator. It applies a Bollinger Band over the Valuation/GDP ratio to identify overvaluation and undervaluation across different timeframes, making it efficient for use in smaller timeframes, e.g. daily or even hourly intervals.

HOW DOES IT WORK

The Buffett Valuation Indicator measures the ratio between US stock valuation and US GDP, evaluating whether stock valuations are overvalued or undervalued in GDP terms.

In this version, the total valuation of the US stock market is represented by considering the top 10 market capitalization stocks.

Users can customize this list to include other stocks for a more balanced valuation ratio. Alternatively, users may use S&P 500 ETFs, such as SPY or VOO, as inputs.

The ratio is plotted as a line chart in a separate panel below the main chart. A Bollinger Band with a default 100-period and multiples of 1 and 2 is used to identify overvaluation and undervaluation.

For instance, if the ratio line moves above the +2 standard deviation line, it indicates that stocks are overvalued, signaling a potential selling opportunity.

APPLICATION

When the indicator is applied to a chart, we observe the ratio line's movements relative to the standard deviation lines. The further the line deviates from the standard deviation lines, the more extreme the overvaluation or undervaluation.

We look for buying opportunities when the Buffett Index moves below the first and second standard deviation lines and sell opportunities when it moves above these lines. This indicator is used as a microeconomic confirmation tool, in combination with other indicators, to achieve higher win-rate setups.

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