Fortuna Trend Predictor

**Fortuna Trend Predictor**

### Overview
**Fortuna Trend Predictor** is a powerful trend analysis tool that combines multiple technical indicators to estimate trend strength, volatility, and probability of price movement direction. This indicator is designed to help traders identify potential trend shifts and confirm trade setups with improved accuracy.

### Key Features
- **Trend Strength Analysis**: Uses the difference between short-term and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) normalized by the Average True Range (ATR) to determine trend strength.
- **Directional Strength via ADX**: Calculates the Average Directional Index (ADX) manually to measure the strength of the trend, regardless of its direction.
- **Probability Estimation**: Provides a probabilistic assessment of price movement direction based on trend strength.
- **Volume Confirmation**: Incorporates a volume filter that validates signals when the trading volume is above its moving average.
- **Volatility Filter**: Uses ATR to identify high-volatility conditions, helping traders avoid false signals during low-volatility periods.
- **Overbought & Oversold Levels**: Includes RSI-based horizontal reference lines to highlight potential reversal zones.

### Indicator Components
1. **ATR (Average True Range)**: Measures market volatility and serves as a denominator to normalize EMA differences.
2. **EMA (Exponential Moving Averages)**:
- **Short EMA (20-period)** - Captures short-term price movements.
- **Long EMA (50-period)** - Identifies the overall trend.
3. **Trend Strength Calculation**:
- Formula: `(Short EMA - Long EMA) / ATR`
- The higher the value, the stronger the trend.
4. **ADX Calculation**:
- Computes +DI and -DI manually to generate ADX values.
- Higher ADX indicates a stronger trend.
5. **Volume Filter**:
- Compares current volume to a 20-period moving average.
- Signals are more reliable when volume exceeds its average.
6. **Volatility Filter**:
- Detects whether ATR is above its own moving average, multiplied by a user-defined threshold.
7. **Probability Plot**:
- Formula: `50 + 50 * (Trend Strength / (1 + abs(Trend Strength)))`
- Values range from 0 to 100, indicating potential movement direction.

### How to Use
- When **Probability Line is above 70**, the trend is strong and likely to continue.
- When **Probability Line is below 30**, the trend is weak or possibly reversing.
- A rising **ADX** confirms strong trends, while a falling ADX suggests consolidation.
- Combine with price action and other confirmation tools for best results.

### Notes
- This indicator does not generate buy/sell signals but serves as a decision-support tool.
- Works best on higher timeframes (H1 and above) to filter out noise.

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### Example Chart
*The chart below demonstrates how Fortuna Trend Predictor can help identify strong trends and avoid false breakouts by confirming signals with volume and volatility filters.*